Published April 3, 2023 | Version 2020.01.26.r2
Dataset Open

Dataset regarding the « Reasons for concern » about climate change from figures in IPCC and related publications

  • 1. Université catholique de Louvain


This data corresponds to the 'burning ember' diagrams from IPCC reports and related publications (IPCC TAR, Smith et al. 2009 for AR4-related embers, AR5 and SR15). It was used to build figure 3 of Zommers et al. 2020 (Burning Embers: Towards more transparent and robust climate change risk assessments. Accepted for publication in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment). The data provided here is the result of extraction of information from the original figures, as presented in the related technical document 10.5281/zenodo.3992856. As explained in the Supplementary Information of Zommers et al. 2020 and the technical document, this is not data from the IPCC. The provided values are approximations of the global mean temperature increase corresponding to each change in risk in the original diagrams. The rigour of the preparation process and the limitations of the dataset are explained in the technical document.


Version 2 (r2) of this file contains the same data as the first version but in a different file format. Both describe exactly the same information and can be used to produce exactly the same diagram (with e.g.


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Additional details

Related works

Technical note: 10.5281/zenodo.3992856 (DOI)
Is supplement to
Software: (URL)


  • Zommers, Zinta, Philippe Marbaix, Andreas Fischlin, Zelina Z. Ibrahim, Sean Grant, Alexandre K. Magnan, Hans-Otto Pörtner, et al. « Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-Change Risk Assessments ». Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10 septembre 2020.
  • Philippe Marbaix. (2020). Reconstruction of data regarding the « Reasons for concern » about climate change from figures in IPCC and related publications. Zenodo. Note: this technical note was achived after the first version of the present data file (26/1/2020) and contains more details, at least regarding the TAR.
  • Ahmad Q.K., Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Sandra Brown, Ian Burton, Max Campos, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Stewart J. Cohen, Paul Desanker, William Easterling, B. Blair Fitzharris, Donald Forbes, Habiba Gitay, Andrew Githeko, Patrick Gonzalez, Duane Gubler, Sujata Gupta, Andrew Haines, Hideo Harasawa, Jarle Inge Holten, Bubu Pateh Jallow, Roger Jones, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Emilio Lebre La Rovere, Neil Leary, Rik Leemans, Chunzhen Liu, Chris Magadza, Martin Manning, Luis Jose Mata, James McCarthy, Roger McLean, Anthony McMichael, Kathleen Miller, Evan Mills, M. Monirul Qader Mirza, Daniel Murdiyarso, Leonard Nurse, Camille Parmesan, Martin Parry, Jonathan Patz, Michel Petit, Olga Pilifosova, Barrie Pittock, Jeff Price, Terry Root, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Jose Sarukhan, John Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Robert Scholes, Michael Scott, Graham Sem, Barry Smit, Joel Smith, Brent Sohngen, Alla Tsyban, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Pier Vellinga, Richard Warrick, Tom Wilbanks, Alistair Woodward, David Wratt, and many reviewers (Based on a draft prepared by). Summary for policymakers. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. A Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021.
  • Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez and F. Yamin, 2007: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 19 in Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 779-810.
  • Joel B. Smith, Stephen H. Schneider, Michael Oppenheimer, Gary W. Yohe, William Haref, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Anand Patwardhan, Ian Burton, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Chris H. D. Magadza, Hans-Martin Füssel, A. Barrie Pittock, Atiq Rahman, Avelino Suarez, and Jean-Pascal van Ypersele Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ''reasons for concern''. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, nᵒ 11 (17 mars 2009): 4133‑37.
  • Oppenheimer, M., M. Campos, R. Warren, J. Birkmann, G. Luber, B. O'Neill, and K. Takahashi, 2014: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. Chapter 19 in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1039-1099.
  • O'Neill, B.C., Oppenheimer, M., Warren, R., Hallegatte, S., Kopp, R.E., Pörtner, H.O., Scholes, R., Birkmann, J., Foden, W., Licker, R., Mach, K.J., Marbaix, P., Mastrandrea, M.D., Price, J., Takahashi, K., van Ypersele, J.-P., Yohe, G., 2017. IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks. Nature Clim Change 7, 28–37.