This data repository is created by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (https://globalchange.mit.edu/) and makes available data resulting from ensembles of simulations of the 
MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model that were designed to quantify socio-economic uncertainties. 
	-More information about the MIT EPPA model can be found in [1], [2], [3] and [4] in the Reference list below.
	-More information about representing uncertainty in the EPPA model and the ensemble scenarios that generated the data in this repository can be found in [5] in the Reference list below and the Scenario_Descriptions.docx file.

The data in this repository is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
It can be cited as:				
	Morris, Jennifer, Reilly, John, Paltsev, Sergey, & Sokolov, Andrei. (2023). Data from Uncertainty Ensembles of the MIT EPPA Model (Version 1) [Data set]. Zenodo. 				
	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7646835				


The repository contains model results from three ensemble scenarios (Ref, 2C and 1.5C), with a separate zipped folder for each scenario. 

Within each folder are ensemble data for:
(1) GDP (billion 2007 USD)
(2) Population (million people)
(3) Primary Energy by Type (EJ): (a) Coal, (b) Natural Gas, (c) Oil, (d) Nuclear, (e) Hydro, (f) Biomass, (g) Renewables(Wind&Solar)
(4) Electricity Production by Type (TWh): (a) Coal without CCS, (b) Coal with CCS, (c) Gas without CCS, (d) Gas with CCS, (e) Oil, (f) Nuclear, (g) Hydro, (h) Biomass without CCS, (i) Renewables(Wind&Solar)
(5) Economy-Wide Emissions: (a) CO2 (Fossil+Industrial+LUC CO2; Mt CO2), (b) GHGs (Fossil+Industrial+LUC CO2 + Non-CO2 GHGs converted to CO2 based on GWP; Mt CO2e)
(6) Output by Aggregate Sector (billion 2007 USD): (a) Agriculture, (b) Commercial&Residential, (c) Electricity, (d) Energy-Intensive&Mining, (e) Other Manufacturing, (f) Transportation(including private transport)
(7) GHG Emissions by Aggregate Sector (Mt CO2e): (a) Agriculture, (b) Commercial&Residential, (c) Electricity, (d) Energy-Intensive&Mining, (e) Other Manufacturing, (f) Transportation(including private transport)
(8) Carbon price ($/tCO2e) (based on the policy assumptions for 2C ans 1.5C scenarios, carbon prices are region-specific from 2020-2030 and global starting in 2035)
(9) Consumer Price Index (CPI) (indexed to 2020)

Data is included for the world (GLB) and for each of the 18 regions in the EPPA model (see EPPA_regions_map.xlsx file for regional mapping).


Contact: Jennifer Morris, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (holak@mit.edu)


References:
[1] Chen, Y.-H.H., S. Paltsev, J.M. Reilly, J.F. Morris and M.H. Babiker (2016). Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment. Economic Modelling, 52(Part B): 867–883. 

[2] Paltsev, S., J.M. Reilly, H.D. Jacoby, R.S. Eckaus, J. McFarland, M. Sarofim, M. Asadoorian and M. Babiker (2005). The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model: Version 4. 
Joint Program Report Series Report 125, 72 p (http://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/14578)

[3] Morris, J., J. Farrell, H. Kheshgi, H. Thomann, Y.-H. Chen, S. Paltsev and H. Herzog (2019a). Representing the Costs of Low-Carbon Power Generation in Multi-region Multi-sector Energy-Economic
Models. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 87:170–187 (doi: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.05.016)

[4] Morris, J.F., J.M. Reilly and Y-H.H. Chen (2019b). Advanced Technologies in Energy-Economy Models for Climate Change Assessment. Energy Economics, 80 (476–490) (doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.01.034)

[5] Morris, J. J. Reilly, S. Paltsev, A. Sokolov and K. Cox (2022): Representing socio-economic uncertainty in human system models. Earth's Future, 10(4) (doi: 10.1029/2021EF002239)