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Published October 13, 2022 | Version v1.2
Dataset Open

Scenario emissions and temperature data for PROVIDE project

  • 1. Imperial College
  • 2. Climate Analytics

Description

Data for tier 1 and tier 2 PROVIDE scenarios. 

Tier 1 scenarios are mostly from integrated assessment models. Tier 2 scenarios are much more numerous and are kept in a separately zipped folder for temperatures and csv file for emissions data. The temperature folders contains the full set of FaIR runs for scenarios entirely defined by emissions. Summaries are much smaller files containing quantile info for each scenario, including the scenarios defined by combinations of emissions and temperature trends. 

  • 10 Tier 1 scenarios until 2100
  • 15 Tier 1 scenarios defined until 2300, all of which are variations of the original 10
  • Many Tier 2 scenarios, aiming to completely tile reasonable emissions space parameterised with 4 variables

Several objectives of the PROVIDE project depend on a set of scenarios that can be modelled through either a ‘classical’ forward-looking approach or by a novel approach that ‘reverses the impact chain’. These scenarios are also key elements for the integration of PROVIDE findings in the outward-looking stakeholder Dashboard of the project. Here we describe the set of scenarios that has been developed and will be used within PROVIDE. In total, PROVIDE explores three complementary approaches:

  1. 10 distinct tier 1 scenarios extending until 2100, mostly based on the existing literature, used for short-term assessments of impacts
  2. 15 distinct tier 1 scenarios extending until 2300, based on different extensions of the 10 literature scenarios, used for assessing longer-run impacts and the geophysical impact of significant temperature overshoot
  3. ~1350 distinct tier 2 scenarios, exploring several dimensions of emissions space systematically, such as CO2 net zero date and relative methane intensity. This is used to explore which scenarios are compatible with given climate outcomes. These scenarios can be used to reverse the traditional impact chain, going from acceptable climate risks to descriptions of acceptable emissions.

Notes

v1.1.1 Deletes date from times where it should be ignored to avoid confusion. v1.2 Updated the harmonisation in emissions in 2015, with minor effects on temperature.

Files

post-2100_inc_redundanttier1_temperature_summary.csv

Files (1.3 GB)

Name Size Download all
md5:e3244757052b887d3b427400f120312d
16.8 MB Download
md5:c805f5a88e680b3914d0b57482bdd650
49.0 kB Preview Download
md5:72cda3f1eff899e4d156bf4440919a92
221.3 kB Preview Download
md5:441b296a80a28b8d0197b33650fcf964
1.1 MB Preview Download
md5:5aa613a5259d551a7ad516e886b08ef7
20.6 MB Preview Download
md5:1858cc2740fbed47ba19a9a0833c2fe2
1.3 GB Download
md5:a977883f9c66302e7d6bcd1b3cfb39e2
18.9 kB Preview Download

Additional details

Funding

PROVIDE – Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs 101003687
European Commission