############################################################################# library(matconv) library(raveio) library(rmatio) library(pracma) library(fBasics) library(reshape2) library(ggplot2) library(matrixStats) setwd("~/Downloads") #setwd("/Users/jesse/OneDrive - University of Exeter/Earth Commission/Commitments/fig1") #setwd("/Users/jesse/OneDrive - University of Exeter/Earth Commission/Commitments/cmip_two_box_simulations_co2e_jesse/") #RCP85 <- run_model(df = file_rcp85, # scenario_name = "RCP85_2100", # const_year=2100) commit <- readRDS("/Users/jesse/Dropbox/committed tipping/committed_scenario_out_July_2022.rds") transient <- readRDS("/Users/jesse/Dropbox/committed tipping/transient_scenario_out_July_2022.rds") historic <- readRDS("~/OneDrive - University of Exeter/Earth Commission/Commitments/fig1/historic_out.rds") historic <- subset(historic, year>=1950) historic <- subset(historic, year<=2100) RCP85_commit <- commit[[3]][[2]] RCP85_commit <- subset(RCP85_commit, year>=1950) RCP85_commit <- subset(RCP85_commit, year<=2100) RCP85_transient <- transient[[3]] RCP85_transient <- subset(RCP85_transient, year>=1950) RCP85_transient <- subset(RCP85_transient, year<=2100) RCP45_commit <- commit[[2]][[2]] RCP45_commit <- subset(RCP45_commit, year>=1950) RCP45_commit <- subset(RCP45_commit, year<=2100) RCP45_transient <- transient[[2]] RCP45_transient <- subset(RCP45_transient, year>=1950) RCP45_transient <- subset(RCP45_transient, year<=2100) RCP26_commit <- commit[[1]][[2]] RCP26_commit <- subset(RCP26_commit, year>=1950) RCP26_commit <- subset(RCP26_commit, year<=2100) RCP26_transient <- transient[[1]] RCP26_transient <- subset(RCP26_transient, year>=1950) RCP26_transient <- subset(RCP26_transient, year<=2100) #scenario_name="RCP8.5" p_transient <- ggplot(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean)) + geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid',size = 1, col = '#ffffcc') + geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid',size = 1, col = '#ffeda0') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#fed976') + #annotate("text", x = 2129, y = 1.5, label = "GRIS, WAIS") + geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#feb24c') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 1.8, label = "LABC") + geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#fd8d3c') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 3.0, label = "EASB") + geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#fc4e2a') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 3.5, label = "AMAZ") + geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#fc4e2a') + geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#e31a1c') + #annotate("text", x = 2130, y = 4.0, label = "AMOC, PFTP") + geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#bd0026') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 6.3, label = "AWSI") + geom_hline(yintercept=7.5, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#800026') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 8.0, label = "EAIS") + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#ffffb2') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='dashed', col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='dashed', col = '#f03b20') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='dashed', col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='dashed', col = '#bd0026') + geom_ribbon(data=RCP85_transient,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#1b9e77",alpha=0.3) + #geom_ribbon(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#1b9e77",alpha=0.3) + geom_line(data=RCP85_transient,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#1b9e77") + geom_line(data=RCP85_transient,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#1b9e77") + geom_line(data=RCP85_transient,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#1b9e77") + #geom_line(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#1b9e77") + #geom_line(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#1b9e77") + #geom_line(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#1b9e77") + geom_ribbon(data=RCP45_transient,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#1f78b4",alpha=0.3) + #geom_ribbon(data=RCP45_commit,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#1f78b4",alpha=0.3) + geom_line(data=RCP45_transient,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#1f78b4") + geom_line(data=RCP45_transient,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#1f78b4") + geom_line(data=RCP45_transient,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#1f78b4") + #geom_line(data=RCP45_commit,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#1f78b4") + #geom_line(data=RCP45_commit,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#1f78b4") + #geom_line(data=RCP45_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#1f78b4") + geom_ribbon(data=RCP26_transient,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#7570b3",alpha=0.3) + #geom_ribbon(data=RCP26_commit,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#7570b3",alpha=0.3) + geom_line(data=RCP26_transient,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#7570b3") + geom_line(data=RCP26_transient,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#7570b3") + geom_line(data=RCP26_transient,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#7570b3") + #geom_line(data=RCP26_commit,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#7570b3") + #geom_line(data=RCP26_commit,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#7570b3") + #geom_line(data=RCP26_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#7570b3") + geom_line(data=historic,aes(x=year,y=temp),col="black") + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#7570b3') + #geom_hline(yintercept=2, linetype='dashed', col = '#7570b3') + #geom_line(data=historic,aes(x=year,y=temp),linetype="dotted") + #xlim(1860,2100) + #ylim(-0.3,12) + ylab("Warming (K)") + xlab("Year") + ggtitle("Transient temperature") + theme_bw() + theme(legend.position="bottom", plot.margin = unit(c(1, 3, 1, 1), "lines")) + coord_cartesian(ylim = c(-0.3, 10), xlim = c(1950, 2100), clip = "off") + theme(plot.margin=unit(c(1,3,0.5,0.5),"cm")) p_commit <- ggplot(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean)) + geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid',size = 1, col = '#ffffcc') + geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid',size = 1, col = '#ffeda0') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#fed976') + #annotate("text", x = 2129, y = 1.5, label = "GRIS, WAIS") + geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#fed976') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#feb24c') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 1.8, label = "LABC") + geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#fd8d3c') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 3.0, label = "EASB") + geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#fc4e2a') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#fc4e2a') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 3.5, label = "AMAZ") + geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#fc4e2a') + geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#e31a1c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#e31a1c') + #annotate("text", x = 2130, y = 4.0, label = "AMOC, PFTP") + geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#bd0026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#bd0026') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 6.3, label = "AWSI") + geom_hline(yintercept=7.5, linetype='solid', size = 1, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 1, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 2, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 4, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 3, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 5, col = '#800026') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='solid', alpha=0.05, size = 6, col = '#800026') + #annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 8.0, label = "EAIS") + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#ffffb2') + #geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='dashed', col = '#fd8d3c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='dashed', col = '#f03b20') + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='dashed', col = '#feb24c') + #geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='dashed', col = '#bd0026') + #geom_ribbon(data=RCP85_transient,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#1b9e77",alpha=0.3) + geom_ribbon(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#1b9e77",alpha=0.3) + #geom_line(data=RCP85_transient,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#1b9e77") + #geom_line(data=RCP85_transient,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#1b9e77") + #geom_line(data=RCP85_transient,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#1b9e77") + geom_line(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#1b9e77") + geom_line(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#1b9e77") + geom_line(data=RCP85_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean,color="RCP8.5")) + #geom_ribbon(data=RCP45_transient,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#1f78b4",alpha=0.3) + geom_ribbon(data=RCP45_commit,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#1f78b4",alpha=0.3) + #geom_line(data=RCP45_transient,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#1f78b4") + #geom_line(data=RCP45_transient,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#1f78b4") + #geom_line(data=RCP45_transient,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#1f78b4") + geom_line(data=RCP45_commit,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#1f78b4") + geom_line(data=RCP45_commit,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#1f78b4") + geom_line(data=RCP45_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean,color="RCP4.5")) + #geom_ribbon(data=RCP26_transient,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#7570b3",alpha=0.3) + geom_ribbon(data=RCP26_commit,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#7570b3",alpha=0.3) + #geom_line(data=RCP26_transient,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#7570b3") + #geom_line(data=RCP26_transient,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#7570b3") + #geom_line(data=RCP26_transient,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#7570b3") + geom_line(data=RCP26_commit,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#7570b3") + geom_line(data=RCP26_commit,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#7570b3") + geom_line(data=RCP26_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean,color="RCP2.6")) + geom_line(data=historic,aes(x=year,y=temp),col="black") + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#7570b3') + #geom_hline(yintercept=2, linetype='dashed', col = '#7570b3') + #geom_line(data=historic,aes(x=year,y=temp),linetype="dotted") + #xlim(1860,2100) + #ylim(-0.3,12) + ylab("Warming (K)") + xlab("Year") + ggtitle("Commited temperature") + scale_color_manual("Radiative Forcing", limits=c("RCP8.5", "RCP4.5", "RCP2.6"), values = c("#1b9e77","#1f78b4","#7570b3")) + theme_bw() + theme(legend.position="bottom") + coord_cartesian(ylim = c(-0.3, 10), xlim = c(1950, 2100), clip = "off") + theme(plot.margin=unit(c(1,3,0.5,0.5),"cm")) library(patchwork) d2p <- read.csv("min_max_tip.csv") cols <- c("#ffffcc", "#ffeda0", "#fed976", "#feb24c", "#fd8d3c", "#fc4e2a", "#e31a1c", "#bd0026", "#800026") d2p$tip <- factor(d2p$tip, levels = d2p$tip[order(d2p$mean)]) p_bar <- ggplot(d2p,aes(x=tip)) + geom_segment(aes(x=tip, xend=tip, y=min, yend=max), size=1, linetype="solid",color=cols) + geom_point(aes(x=tip,y=mean),color=cols,size=2) + coord_cartesian(ylim = c(-0.3, 10), clip = "off") + theme_minimal() + theme(axis.title = element_blank(), axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 90), axis.text.y = element_blank()) p_out <- p_transient + p_commit + p_bar + plot_layout(ncol = 3, widths=c(4,4,1.1)) ggsave(filename = "combined2.png", plot = p_out, height = 6, width = 12, dpi = 600) rcp85_t <- data.frame(transient = RCP85_transient$mean, committed = RCP85_commit$mean, Scenario = "1") rcp45_t <- data.frame(transient = RCP45_transient$mean, committed = RCP45_commit$mean, Scenario = "2") rcp26_t <- data.frame(transient = RCP26_transient$mean, committed = RCP26_commit$mean, Scenario = "3") d2p <- rbind(rcp26_t,rcp45_t,rcp85_t) p <- ggplot(d2p,aes(x=transient,y=committed,color=Scenario,group=Scenario)) + geom_path(data=rcp85_t,aes(x=transient,y=committed,color="RCP8.5",group="RCP8.5"),size=1) + geom_path(data=rcp45_t,aes(x=transient,y=committed,color="RCP4.5",group="RCP4.5"),size=1) + geom_path(data=rcp26_t,aes(x=transient,y=committed,color="RCP2.6",group="RCP2.6"),size=1) + geom_abline(linetype="dashed") + xlim(0,8) + ylim(0,8) + xlab("Transient warming") + ylab("Committed warming") + #scale_color_manual(values = branded_colors) + scale_color_manual("Radiative Forcing", limits=c("RCP8.5", "RCP4.5", "RCP2.6"), values = c("#1b9e77","#1f78b4","#7570b3")) + theme_bw() + theme(legend.position="bottom") ggsave(filename = "figure2.png", plot = p, height = 5, width = 5, dpi = 600) RCP45 <- run_model(df = file_rcp45, scenario_name = "RCP45_2100", const_year=2100) out <- readRDS("~/OneDrive - University of Exeter/Earth Commission/Commitments/fig1/committed_scenario_out.rds") historic <- readRDS("~/OneDrive - University of Exeter/Earth Commission/Commitments/fig1/historic_out.rds") RCP45_commit <- out[[2]][[2]] scen_commit <- RCP45_commit scen <- RCP45 scen_commit <- subset(scen_commit, year>=1860) scen_commit <- subset(scen_commit, year<=2100) scen <- subset(scen, year>=1860) scen <- subset(scen, year<=2100) scenario_name="SSP2-4.5" p <- ggplot(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean)) + #geom_ribbon(data=d2plot,aes(x=year,ymin=min,ymax=max), fill="lightgrey") + geom_ribbon(data=scen,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#a6bddb",alpha=0.7) + geom_ribbon(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="lightgrey",alpha=0.7) + geom_line(data=scen,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#2b8cbe") + geom_line(data=scen,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#2b8cbe") + geom_line(data=scen,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#2b8cbe") + #geom_ribbon(data=cmip6plot,aes(x=year,ymin=min,ymax=max), fill="lightgrey") + geom_line(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed') + geom_line(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed') + geom_line(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean)) + geom_line(data=historic,aes(x=year,y=temp),col="#91cf60") + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#7570b3') + #geom_hline(yintercept=2, linetype='dashed', col = '#7570b3') + #geom_line(data=historic,aes(x=year,y=temp),linetype="dotted") + #xlim(1860,2100) + #ylim(-0.3,12) + ylab("Warming (K)") + xlab("Year") + ggtitle(scenario_name) + theme_bw() + theme(legend.position="bottom", plot.margin = unit(c(1, 3, 1, 1), "lines")) + coord_cartesian(ylim = c(-0.3, 12), xlim = c(1860, 2100), clip = "off") png(file=paste0("combined_",scenario_name,"_.png"), width = 8, height = 6, units = 'in', res = 300) print(p) dev.off() RCP26 <- run_model(df = file_rcp3PD, scenario_name = "RCP26_2100", const_year=2100) out <- readRDS("~/OneDrive - University of Exeter/Earth Commission/Commitments/fig1/committed_scenario_out.rds") historic <- readRDS("~/OneDrive - University of Exeter/Earth Commission/Commitments/fig1/historic_out.rds") RCP26_commit <- out[[1]][[2]] scen_commit <- RCP26_commit scen <- RCP26 scen_commit <- subset(scen_commit, year>=1860) scen_commit <- subset(scen_commit, year<=2100) scen <- subset(scen, year>=1860) scen <- subset(scen, year<=2100) scenario_name="SSP1-2.6" p <- ggplot(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean)) + #geom_ribbon(data=d2plot,aes(x=year,ymin=min,ymax=max), fill="lightgrey") + geom_ribbon(data=scen,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="#a6bddb",alpha=0.7) + geom_ribbon(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,ymin=mean-sd,ymax=mean+sd), fill="lightgrey",alpha=0.7) + geom_line(data=scen,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed',col="#2b8cbe") + geom_line(data=scen,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed',col="#2b8cbe") + geom_line(data=scen,aes(x=year,y=mean),col="#2b8cbe") + #geom_ribbon(data=cmip6plot,aes(x=year,ymin=min,ymax=max), fill="lightgrey") + geom_line(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,y=min),linetype='dashed') + geom_line(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,y=max),linetype='dashed') + geom_line(data=scen_commit,aes(x=year,y=mean)) + geom_line(data=historic,aes(x=year,y=temp),col="#91cf60") + #geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#7570b3') + #geom_hline(yintercept=2, linetype='dashed', col = '#7570b3') + geom_hline(yintercept=1.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#ffffb2') + annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 1.5, label = "GRIS") + geom_hline(yintercept=3.5, linetype='dashed', col = '#feb24c') + annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 3.5, label = "AFDB") + geom_hline(yintercept=4.0, linetype='dashed', col = '#fd8d3c') + annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 4.0, label = "AMOC") + geom_hline(yintercept=6.3, linetype='dashed', col = '#f03b20') + annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 6.3, label = "AWSI") + geom_hline(yintercept=1.8, linetype='dashed', col = '#feb24c') + annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 1.8, label = "LABC") + geom_hline(yintercept=8.0, linetype='dashed', col = '#bd0026') + annotate("text", x = 2122, y = 8.0, label = "EAIS") + #geom_line(data=historic,aes(x=year,y=temp),linetype="dotted") + #xlim(1860,2100) + #ylim(-0.3,12) + ylab("Warming (K)") + xlab("Year") + ggtitle(scenario_name) + theme_bw() + theme(legend.position="bottom", plot.margin = unit(c(1, 3, 1, 1), "lines")) + coord_cartesian(ylim = c(-0.3, 12), xlim = c(1860, 2100), clip = "off") png(file=paste0("combined_",scenario_name,"_.png"), width = 8, height = 6, units = 'in', res = 300) print(p) dev.off() run_model(df = file_rcp85, scenario_name = "RCP85_2030", const_year=2030) run_model(df = file_rcp85, scenario_name = "RCP85_2050", const_year=2050) run_model(df = file_rcp85, scenario_name = "RCP85_2070", const_year=2070) run_model(df = file_rcp6, scenario_name = "RCP6") run_model(df = file_rcp45, scenario_name = "RCP45") run_model(df = file_rcp3PD, scenario_name = "RCP3PD")