iFishIENCi Report on Climate change scenarios and impacts on aquaculture

Aquaculture is expected to provide an important contribution to future food security. By the year 2030, global aquaculture production of fish is predicted to reach approximately 109 million tonnes (live weight) by 2030, an increase of 37% relative to production in 2016 (FAO, 2018). However, this growth may be influenced by potential threats from climate change. Significant alterations of oceanic environments are predicted to occur over the next 50 years. With ongoing climate change, the ocean’s physical and biogeochemical properties are very likely to undergo fundamental changes (Pörtner et al., 2014). This will affect organisms living in the ocean, including farmed fish (Nilsson et al., 2009 & 2012). At the same time, modelling tools that can accurately predict farmed fish production under climate change scenarios are currently lacking. In view of these challenges, this report (Deliverable 4.3 of iFishIENCi) is intended to deliver insights into climate changed induced threats that have the potential to influence growth rates of European aquaculture species. Given the technological focus of the iFishIENCi project, this report presents only a first order estimate and is by no means a complete overview. Nevertheless, it gives an indication of the potential future threats to European aquaculture. Additionally, it discusses the potential benefits of the technological accomplishments of iFishIENCi with regards to some of the projected climate conditions. This focus of this report is on analyzing climate induced changes in environmental variables and their effects on fish growth in aquaculture. We note that climate induced changes in marine and freshwater environments will also affect a range of other species important to aquaculture such as those which are part of the value chain (i.e. pelagic fish that are reduced to fishmeal for aquafeed) and those which pose risks, including parasites and predators. Climate change may also affect the production of terrestrial crops that are used as ingredients in aquafeed.