Hi Ricardo and all
this all seems fine with me - the question of the temperature observations is a moot one -
but some included seems a good idea  - 1 South American and 1 New Zealand is fine  - length
not as important as proximity to the records shown (but need to see what they l;look like).
will wait on other numbers - Henry is best qualified to cite most appropriate SH borehole
data and could supply a line of text . Ricardo can you ask him for these?
best wishes
Keith
At 13:52 20/07/2005, Ricardo Villalba wrote:
Hi Keith, Ed, Peck, Eystein
Regarding Peck's  suggestions,
1) should we include instrumental data? If not, it could lessen the impact.
Rio de Janeiro, starting in 1851, is the longest, homogeneous temperature
record from the Southern Hemisphere. In New Zealand and Australia,
temperature records start at the same time. We do not have any long record
for the 18th century, even the first half of the 19th century. The
hemispheric record from the Southern Hemisphere will be discussed in Chapter
2 and we do not have any additional information to provide.
2) we need to include the two borehole (see previous email from me and Ed)
Definitely!! I do not have the records here in Mendoza. Keith, do you have
access to these data? As soon as I receive the borehole records I will
incorporate them in the figures. I would appreciate receiving the key
references to properly cite the records.
3) we would like to ask Keith and Tim (pretty
please...) to draft the final figure so that it
matches the other in the section and MWP box. Is
this ok, and do you have the data to do the job.
If not, we trust your kind colleagues can send
upon request?
At the time the figure is ready, I will send all the data to Keith and Tim
to draft the final figure, and the final text to incorporate in the FOD.
Cheers,
Ricardo
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jonathan Overpeck"
To: "Ricardo Villalba"
Cc: "Keith Briffa"
;
;
"Eystein Jansen"
Sent: Tuesday, July 19, 2005 5:55 PM
Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure
Hi SH gang - Thanks for keeping things moving
Ricardo. Eystein and I just discussed this fig on
the phone and would like to suggest the following:
1) should we include instrumental data? If not, it could lessen the impact.
2) we need to include the two borehole (see previous email from me and Ed)
3) we would like to ask Keith and Tim (pretty
please...) to draft the final figure so that it
matches the other in the section and MWP box. Is
this ok, and do you have the data to do the job.
If not, we trust your kind colleagues can send
upon request?
Many thanks, Peck and Eystein
>Dear Keith and Ed,
>
>Please, find attached the new version of the SH figure for the IPCC.  I
have
>now included the New Zealand record. All the records have been scaled to 4
>°C amplitude. Variability in the Tas record is reduced compared to New
>Zealand and Patagonian records. The reference lines is the mean used for
the
>calibration period in each record, 15 C for New Zealand, 14.95 C for
>Tasmania and 0 C for the Patagonian records (they show departures). Please,
>let me know if you want to introduce some changes in the figure. The
>opposite phase in the Patagonia-New Zealand records is so clear before
1850,
>which is consistent with our previous TPI. For instance, in the
instrumental
>record the 1971 and 1976 are the coolest summer in northern Patagonian
>during the past 70 years, but the warmest in New Zealand reconstruction!!
>This out of phase relationship between regions in the Southern Hemisphere
>points out to the difficulty of using few records to get a hemispheric
>average. Cheers,
>
>Ricardo
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Jonathan Overpeck"
>To: "edwardcook"
>Cc: "Keith Briffa"
; "Ricardo Villalba"
;
>"Eystein Jansen"
>Sent: Monday, July 18, 2005 1:09 PM
>Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure
>
>
>Thanks Ed - Ricardo, can you get the data from Henry? What do you think,
>Keith?
>Best, Peck
>
>>Given the nature of the SH and what Ricardo put
>>together, I would keep the Australian and South
>>Aftrican borehole records separate. Henry
>>Pollack can provide them, I am sure. He gave an
>>excellent talk at a meeting in Canberra that I
>>recently participated in.
>>
>>Cheers,
>>
>>Ed
>>
>>P.S. Ricardo, here is the Oroko temperature reconstruction.
>>
>>JANUARY-MARCH TEMPERATURES RECONSTRUCTED FROM
>>OROKO SWAMP, NEW ZEALAND SILVER PINE TREE RINGS
>>BE ADVISED THAT THE DATA AFTER 1958 ARE INSTRUMENTAL
>>TEMPERATURES
>>   YEAR  TEMP °C
>>    900  13.751
>>    901  14.461
>>    902  13.236
>>    903  13.331
>>    904  13.483
>>    905  13.632
>>    906  12.959
>>    907  13.628
>>    908  13.372
>>    909  12.868
>>    910  13.244
>>    911  13.793
>>    912  14.048
>>    913  14.444
>>    914  13.095
>>    915  14.036
>>    916  13.215
>>    917  13.698
>>    918  13.570
>>    919  13.665
>>    920  13.871
>>    921  13.966
>>    922  14.762
>>    923  14.325
>>    924  14.077
>>    925  14.713
>>    926  14.081
>>    927  14.218
>>    928  13.793
>>    929  14.151
>>    930  14.985
>>    931  13.599
>>    932  14.663
>>    933  14.110
>>    934  14.968
>>    935  14.391
>>    936  15.484
>>    937  15.554
>>    938  14.977
>>    939  15.303
>>    940  15.179
>>    941  15.591
>>    942  14.737
>>    943  14.007
>>    944  14.865
>>    945  14.449
>>    946  14.350
>>    947  15.096
>>    948  15.257
>>    949  15.789
>>    950  15.303
>>    951  15.513
>>    952  16.111
>>    953  15.723
>>    954  15.459
>>    955  14.015
>>    956  13.083
>>    957  13.850
>>    958  14.069
>>    959  13.772
>>    960  14.873
>>    961  14.692
>>    962  14.923
>>    963  14.527
>>    964  15.034
>>    965  14.688
>>    966  14.486
>>    967  14.444
>>    968  14.436
>>    969  13.776
>>    970  13.809
>>    971  14.391
>>    972  13.487
>>    973  13.995
>>    974  14.061
>>    975  14.321
>>    976  14.882
>>    977  14.226
>>    978  14.977
>>    979  15.447
>>    980  14.424
>>    981  14.923
>>    982  14.180
>>    983  15.484
>>    984  13.487
>>    985  14.168
>>    986  14.176
>  >   987  15.699
>>    988  15.187
>>    989  16.305
>>    990  14.845
>>    991  14.647
>>    992  15.765
>>    993  14.754
>>    994  14.271
>>    995  13.623
>>    996  14.300
>>    997  13.937
>>    998  14.040
>>    999  14.011
>>   1000  12.976
>>   1001  13.904
>>   1002  13.500
>>   1003  13.586
>>   1004  14.090
>>   1005  13.809
>>   1006  13.413
>>   1007  13.318
>>   1008  13.892
>>   1009  14.151
>>   1010  14.391
>>   1011  13.793
>>   1012  14.626
>>   1013  13.755
>>   1014  13.838
>>   1015  13.017
>  >  1016  13.083
>>   1017  13.549
>>   1018  13.471
>>   1019  13.087
>>   1020  13.458
>>   1021  13.203
>>   1022  14.090
>>   1023  13.574
>>   1024  13.755
>>   1025  13.826
>>   1026  13.137
>>   1027  13.194
>>   1028  14.036
>>   1029  13.091
>>   1030  13.768
>>   1031  13.813
>>   1032  13.846
>>   1033  13.871
>>   1034  14.255
>>   1035  14.370
>>   1036  13.805
>>   1037  14.576
>>   1038  13.504
>>   1039  13.867
>>   1040  14.927
>>   1041  14.420
>>   1042  15.661
>>   1043  15.484
>>   1044  15.595
>>   1045  14.741
>>   1046  13.644
>>   1047  14.271
>>   1048  14.288
>>   1049  13.661
>>   1050  13.665
>>   1051  13.298
>>   1052  14.003
>>   1053  13.826
>>   1054  13.788
>>   1055  13.768
>>   1056  12.976
>>   1057  13.397
>>   1058  13.529
>>   1059  13.549
>>   1060  13.846
>>   1061  14.032
>>   1062  14.820
>>   1063  13.962
>>   1064  14.279
>>   1065  14.151
>>   1066  14.358
>>   1067  14.131
>>   1068  13.652
>>   1069  13.941
>>   1070  14.007
>>   1071  14.403
>>   1072  13.764
>>   1073  13.982
>>   1074  13.846
>>   1075  13.830
>>   1076  13.450
>>   1077  13.632
>>   1078  13.265
>>   1079  13.331
>>   1080  14.267
>>   1081  13.644
>>   1082  13.549
>>   1083  13.557
>>   1084  13.549
>>   1085  14.725
>>   1086  13.479
>>   1087  12.848
>>   1088  12.559
>>   1089  12.926
>>   1090  13.793
>>   1091  14.387
>>   1092  14.531
>>   1093  14.114
>>   1094  14.754
>>   1095  14.688
>>   1096  14.845
>>   1097  14.729
>>   1098  15.059
>>   1099  15.059
>>   1100  15.055
>>   1101  16.057
>>   1102  15.208
>>   1103  15.492
>>   1104  14.519
>>   1105  14.741
>>   1106  14.151
>>   1107  15.005
>>   1108  13.640
>>   1109  13.652
>>   1110  13.566
>>   1111  13.978
>>   1112  14.424
>>   1113  14.180
>>   1114  14.931
>>   1115  14.601
>>   1116  14.403
>>   1117  14.391
>>   1118  14.981
>>   1119  15.125
>>   1120  13.817
>>   1121  12.897
>>   1122  13.863
>>   1123  14.271
>>   1124  14.857
>>   1125  14.882
>>   1126  14.762
>>   1127  14.548
>>   1128  14.403
>>   1129  14.667
>>   1130  14.572
>>   1131  14.057
>>   1132  14.556
>>   1133  15.018
>>   1134  13.892
>>   1135  13.995
>>   1136  13.982
>>   1137  14.853
>>   1138  14.779
>>   1139  15.129
>>   1140  15.117
>>   1141  14.849
>>   1142  15.228
>>   1143  15.216
>>   1144  15.030
>>   1145  14.428
>>   1146  15.063
>>   1147  15.216
>>   1148  15.043
>>   1149  15.034
>>   1150  14.370
>>   1151  15.096
>>   1152  15.410
>>   1153  15.719
>>   1154  16.577
>>   1155  15.769
>>   1156  15.364
>>   1157  15.855
>>   1158  15.422
>>   1159  14.515
>>   1160  15.810
>>   1161  15.628
>>   1162  15.402
>>   1163  15.092
>>   1164  15.298
>>   1165  14.865
>>   1166  14.882
>>   1167  15.274
>>   1168  14.605
>>   1169  14.746
>>   1170  15.472
>>   1171  15.509
>>   1172  15.018
>>   1173  15.369
>>   1174  15.084
>>   1175  15.855
>>   1176  14.795
>>   1177  15.571
>>   1178  14.255
>>   1179  14.510
>>   1180  14.865
>>   1181  14.036
>>   1182  14.688
>>   1183  14.713
>>   1184  14.519
>>   1185  14.255
>>   1186  15.204
>>   1187  14.461
>>   1188  15.476
>>   1189  14.882
>>   1190  15.005
>>   1191  14.453
>>   1192  14.729
>>   1193  15.265
>>   1194  14.444
>>   1195  14.696
>>   1196  15.793
>>   1197  14.581
>>   1198  15.014
>>   1199  14.539
>>   1200  14.044
>>   1201  14.733
>>   1202  14.853
>>   1203  15.298
>>   1204  13.772
>>   1205  13.991
>>   1206  14.651
>>   1207  14.836
>>   1208  14.440
>>   1209  15.162
>>   1210  14.766
>>   1211  15.010
>>   1212  15.356
>>   1213  14.787
>>   1214  15.645
>>   1215  15.435
>>   1216  15.043
>>   1217  15.063
>>   1218  14.151
>>   1219  15.397
>>   1220  15.154
>>   1221  15.892
>>   1222  15.488
>>   1223  15.938
>>   1224  15.525
>>   1225  15.591
>>   1226  14.589
>>   1227  15.496
>>   1228  15.963
>>   1229  14.502
>>   1230  14.457
>>   1231  15.468
>>   1232  14.985
>>   1233  15.282
>>   1234  14.989
>>   1235  15.237
>>   1236  15.711
>>   1237  15.888
>>   1238  14.259
>>   1239  14.560
>>   1240  15.711
>>   1241  15.195
>>   1242  15.484
>>   1243  15.166
>  >  1244  16.020
>>   1245  16.454
>>   1246  15.480
>>   1247  15.492
>>   1248  16.528
>>   1249  15.150
>>   1250  14.436
>>   1251  14.878
>>   1252  15.723
>>   1253  15.043
>>   1254  15.121
>>   1255  14.845
>>   1256  14.807
>>   1257  14.482
>>   1258  14.585
>>   1259  15.307
>>   1260  15.100
>>   1261  14.354
>>   1262  13.995
>>   1263  14.106
>>   1264  14.403
>>   1265  14.754
>>   1266  14.581
>>   1267  14.799
>>   1268  14.378
>>   1269  14.671
>>   1270  14.193
>>   1271  14.387
>>   1272  14.453
>  >  1273  14.510
>>   1274  15.187
>>   1275  15.393
>>   1276  14.498
>>   1277  14.560
>>   1278  15.022
>>   1279  14.498
>>   1280  14.725
>>   1281  13.549
>>   1282  14.977
>>   1283  14.065
>>   1284  14.024
>>   1285  13.603
>>   1286  15.220
>>   1287  15.080
>>   1288  14.898
>>   1289  14.774
>>   1290  15.542
>>   1291  15.212
>>   1292  14.267
>>   1293  14.692
>>   1294  13.644
>>   1295  14.222
>>   1296  15.038
>>   1297  14.721
>>   1298  15.682
>>   1299  13.896
>>   1300  14.766
>>   1301  14.836
>>   1302  14.370
>>   1303  14.812
>>   1304  14.812
>>   1305  13.673
>>   1306  14.036
>>   1307  13.929
>>   1308  14.807
>>   1309  14.114
>>   1310  13.446
>>   1311  13.368
>>   1312  14.168
>>   1313  14.989
>>   1314  14.292
>>   1315  14.985
>>   1316  14.123
>>   1317  14.321
>>   1318  13.966
>>   1319  14.325
>>   1320  14.647
>>   1321  14.622
>>   1322  14.279
>>   1323  14.510
>>   1324  13.689
>>   1325  13.450
>>   1326  14.197
>>   1327  13.867
>>   1328  14.205
>>   1329  14.779
>>   1330  14.350
>>   1331  14.729
>>   1332  13.479
>>   1333  13.974
>>   1334  14.453
>>   1335  14.535
>>   1336  15.402
>>   1337  14.424
>>   1338  14.399
>>   1339  14.906
>>   1340  15.430
>>   1341  14.531
>>   1342  15.785
>>   1343  15.513
>>   1344  15.220
>>   1345  15.352
>>   1346  15.443
>>   1347  15.410
>>   1348  15.777
>>   1349  14.902
>>   1350  14.576
>>   1351  14.605
>>   1352  14.168
>>   1353  14.601
>>   1354  15.414
>>   1355  14.300
>>   1356  14.630
>>   1357  15.170
>>   1358  14.919
>>   1359  14.688
>>   1360  14.081
>>   1361  14.799
>>   1362  14.581
>>   1363  15.133
>>   1364  13.838
>>   1365  14.708
>>   1366  13.149
>>   1367  13.281
>>   1368  13.760
>>   1369  14.123
>>   1370  13.314
>>   1371  14.523
>>   1372  14.267
>>   1373  14.226
>>   1374  14.044
>>   1375  14.271
>>   1376  15.307
>>   1377  14.684
>>   1378  14.168
>>   1379  14.473
>>   1380  13.578
>>   1381  13.586
>>   1382  13.999
>>   1383  13.991
>>   1384  13.710
>>   1385  14.411
>>   1386  13.867
>>   1387  14.255
>>   1388  13.611
>>   1389  13.974
>>   1390  13.916
>>   1391  13.615
>>   1392  14.440
>>   1393  14.787
>>   1394  15.880
>>   1395  16.297
>>   1396  16.289
>>   1397  15.170
>>   1398  16.082
>>   1399  15.463
>>   1400  14.366
>>   1401  14.758
>>   1402  14.902
>>   1403  14.568
>>   1404  15.158
>>   1405  15.579
>>   1406  13.966
>>   1407  13.970
>>   1408  13.772
>>   1409  14.523
>>   1410  14.498
>>   1411  14.791
>>   1412  14.007
>>   1413  15.818
>>   1414  13.974
>>   1415  13.776
>>   1416  13.760
>>   1417  14.407
>>   1418  14.498
>>   1419  14.515
>>   1420  14.341
>>   1421  14.374
>>   1422  13.677
>>   1423  14.354
>>   1424  13.223
>>   1425  13.801
>>   1426  14.560
>>   1427  14.374
>>   1428  14.494
>>   1429  15.051
>>   1430  14.836
>>   1431  13.999
>>   1432  14.341
>>   1433  14.865
>>   1434  15.063
>>   1435  15.311
>>   1436  15.765
>>   1437  15.789
>>   1438  15.204
>>   1439  15.298
>>   1440  15.257
>>   1441  15.443
>>   1442  14.737
>>   1443  15.385
>>   1444  15.723
>>   1445  14.717
>>   1446  15.088
>>   1447  15.253
>>   1448  14.477
>>   1449  16.004
>>   1450  14.581
>>   1451  14.449
>>   1452  14.993
>>   1453  14.151
>>   1454  14.556
>>   1455  14.366
>>   1456  14.601
>>   1457  13.813
>>   1458  14.242
>>   1459  15.047
>>   1460  14.919
>>   1461  14.300
>>   1462  15.010
>>   1463  14.139
>>   1464  15.001
>>   1465  14.873
>>   1466  15.406
>>   1467  14.399
>>   1468  14.671
>>   1469  15.092
>>   1470  14.337
>>   1471  14.948
>>   1472  15.047
>>   1473  14.523
>>   1474  14.680
>>   1475  14.395
>>   1476  15.661
>>   1477  15.158
>>   1478  15.414
>>   1479  15.641
>>   1480  15.909
>>   1481  15.748
>>   1482  14.708
>>   1483  14.981
>>   1484  14.659
>>   1485  15.113
>>   1486  14.754
>>   1487  15.740
>>   1488  15.327
>>   1489  15.125
>>   1490  15.026
>>   1491  15.567
>>   1492  15.265
>>   1493  15.996
>>   1494  16.326
>>   1495  14.915
>>   1496  15.831
>>   1497  14.845
>>   1498  15.670
>>   1499  16.156
>>   1500  15.864
>  >  1501  15.831
>>   1502  16.581
>>   1503  15.212
>>   1504  15.534
>>   1505  15.270
>>   1506  15.492
>>   1507  15.633
>>   1508  14.420
>>   1509  15.723
>>   1510  14.816
>>   1511  15.282
>>   1512  15.641
>>   1513  14.655
>>   1514  14.510
>>   1515  13.508
>>   1516  14.172
>>   1517  14.251
>>   1518  13.628
>>   1519  13.698
>>   1520  13.405
>>   1521  13.920
>>   1522  13.974
>>   1523  13.978
>>   1524  14.238
>>   1525  14.003
>>   1526  13.298
>>   1527  13.694
>>   1528  15.005
>>   1529  14.218
>  >  1530  14.110
>>   1531  14.593
>>   1532  13.916
>>   1533  14.510
>>   1534  14.057
>>   1535  14.048
>>   1536  13.673
>>   1537  14.477
>>   1538  14.090
>>   1539  14.300
>>   1540  14.374
>>   1541  14.387
>>   1542  14.085
>>   1543  14.184
>>   1544  14.597
>>   1545  14.783
>>   1546  15.348
>>   1547  15.859
>>   1548  15.835
>>   1549  14.729
>>   1550  15.451
>>   1551  15.204
>>   1552  15.022
>>   1553  15.352
>>   1554  14.251
>>   1555  14.135
>>   1556  14.609
>>   1557  14.572
>>   1558  15.224
>>   1559  14.688
>>   1560  14.618
>>   1561  15.179
>>   1562  14.399
>>   1563  14.873
>>   1564  13.652
>>   1565  13.958
>>   1566  15.595
>>   1567  14.898
>>   1568  13.595
>>   1569  14.019
>>   1570  15.030
>>   1571  15.228
>>   1572  15.241
>>   1573  16.355
>>   1574  14.865
>>   1575  14.923
>>   1576  15.542
>>   1577  15.162
>>   1578  14.956
>>   1579  15.657
>>   1580  15.208
>>   1581  15.208
>>   1582  15.166
>>   1583  14.473
>>   1584  14.052
>>   1585  14.213
>>   1586  14.568
>>   1587  14.762
>>   1588  14.288
>>   1589  14.069
>>   1590  13.929
>>   1591  13.479
>>   1592  14.044
>>   1593  14.267
>>   1594  14.288
>>   1595  14.609
>>   1596  14.362
>>   1597  13.846
>>   1598  14.098
>>   1599  14.147
>>   1600  14.783
>>   1601  13.995
>>   1602  13.925
>>   1603  13.999
>>   1604  14.688
>>   1605  13.892
>>   1606  15.410
>>   1607  14.325
>>   1608  15.241
>>   1609  15.104
>>   1610  14.531
>>   1611  15.958
>>   1612  14.597
>>   1613  14.337
>>   1614  14.647
>>   1615  13.318
>>   1616  14.424
>>   1617  13.768
>>   1618  14.779
>>   1619  14.886
>>   1620  14.065
>>   1621  14.085
>>   1622  14.626
>>   1623  13.912
>>   1624  13.487
>>   1625  14.292
>>   1626  13.075
>>   1627  13.871
>>   1628  13.850
>>   1629  13.755
>>   1630  14.680
>>   1631  14.048
>>   1632  14.601
>>   1633  15.752
>>   1634  14.420
>>   1635  14.085
>>   1636  14.230
>>   1637  15.426
>>   1638  16.322
>>   1639  14.762
>>   1640  14.882
>>   1641  14.985
>>   1642  14.931
>>   1643  15.484
>>   1644  15.843
>>   1645  14.861
>>   1646  14.284
>>   1647  14.494
>>   1648  14.935
>>   1649  13.966
>>   1650  14.296
>>   1651  13.768
>>   1652  15.001
>>   1653  14.944
>>   1654  15.418
>>   1655  15.146
>>   1656  14.915
>>   1657  14.803
>>   1658  14.638
>>   1659  14.630
>>   1660  14.052
>>   1661  13.702
>>   1662  14.081
>>   1663  14.312
>>   1664  14.197
>>   1665  13.780
>>   1666  14.292
>>   1667  14.634
>>   1668  13.768
>>   1669  14.671
>>   1670  14.246
>>   1671  14.812
>>   1672  15.216
>>   1673  15.810
>>   1674  14.869
>>   1675  16.148
>>   1676  14.977
>>   1677  14.923
>>   1678  15.488
>>   1679  14.956
>>   1680  14.098
>>   1681  14.523
>>   1682  15.327
>>   1683  15.666
>>   1684  15.554
>>   1685  15.270
>>   1686  15.492
>>   1687  15.459
>>   1688  14.754
>>   1689  14.741
>>   1690  14.700
>>   1691  14.906
>>   1692  13.904
>>   1693  14.527
>>   1694  15.063
>>   1695  14.399
>>   1696  15.096
>>   1697  15.360
>>   1698  15.694
>>   1699  15.249
>>   1700  14.779
>>   1701  14.609
>>   1702  15.336
>>   1703  15.121
>>   1704  15.154
>>   1705  15.212
>>   1706  14.750
>>   1707  15.472
>>   1708  14.164
>>   1709  13.665
>>   1710  14.213
>>   1711  14.741
>>   1712  15.521
>>   1713  15.410
>>   1714  14.519
>>   1715  15.154
>>   1716  14.597
>>   1717  15.212
>>   1718  14.688
>>   1719  13.962
>>   1720  15.109
>>   1721  15.839
>>   1722  15.765
>>   1723  15.001
>>   1724  15.389
>>   1725  15.088
>>   1726  14.655
>>   1727  14.312
>>   1728  14.824
>>   1729  14.981
>>   1730  13.640
>>   1731  15.043
>>   1732  13.953
>>   1733  13.681
>>   1734  14.036
>>   1735  13.937
>>   1736  14.832
>>   1737  14.807
>>   1738  14.325
>>   1739  14.337
>>   1740  14.680
>>   1741  14.779
>>   1742  14.255
>>   1743  14.205
>>   1744  14.024
>>   1745  14.069
>>   1746  15.216
>>   1747  15.455
>>   1748  15.447
>>   1749  15.851
>>   1750  15.253
>>   1751  14.626
>>   1752  15.294
>>   1753  15.744
>>   1754  15.158
>>   1755  14.750
>>   1756  15.319
>>   1757  15.059
>  >  1758  15.195
>>   1759  14.725
>>   1760  14.609
>>   1761  14.869
>>   1762  15.212
>>   1763  15.505
>>   1764  14.634
>>   1765  15.175
>>   1766  14.552
>>   1767  15.109
>>   1768  14.312
>>   1769  14.090
>>   1770  14.246
>>   1771  14.127
>>   1772  14.667
>>   1773  14.312
>>   1774  14.659
>>   1775  14.296
>>   1776  14.527
>>   1777  14.069
>>   1778  15.005
>>   1779  14.832
>>   1780  15.146
>>   1781  14.865
>>   1782  14.102
>>   1783  13.735
>>   1784  14.510
>>   1785  14.052
>>   1786  14.795
>  >  1787  15.455
>>   1788  15.298
>>   1789  14.325
>>   1790  14.927
>>   1791  14.230
>>   1792  14.230
>>   1793  14.836
>>   1794  15.637
>>   1795  15.022
>>   1796  14.473
>>   1797  14.968
>>   1798  14.028
>>   1799  13.463
>>   1800  14.151
>>   1801  15.187
>>   1802  15.290
>>   1803  15.732
>>   1804  14.985
>>   1805  15.224
>>   1806  16.251
>>   1807  13.289
>>   1808  14.420
>>   1809  14.696
>>   1810  14.568
>>   1811  15.802
>>   1812  16.082
>>   1813  16.416
>>   1814  16.082
>>   1815  16.309
>>   1816  15.967
>>   1817  16.247
>>   1818  15.208
>>   1819  15.587
>>   1820  15.323
>>   1821  15.505
>>   1822  14.812
>>   1823  15.298
>>   1824  15.022
>>   1825  15.179
>>   1826  15.967
>>   1827  14.040
>>   1828  14.449
>>   1829  14.242
>>   1830  14.548
>>   1831  14.378
>>   1832  15.137
>>   1833  13.496
>>   1834  14.081
>>   1835  15.228
>>   1836  14.700
>>   1837  14.432
>>   1838  14.927
>>   1839  14.482
>>   1840  15.175
>>   1841  14.296
>>   1842  14.762
>>   1843  14.350
>>   1844  14.770
>>   1845  15.026
>>   1846  14.688
>>   1847  14.944
>>   1848  15.088
>>   1849  14.774
>>   1850  14.865
>>   1851  14.787
>>   1852  14.527
>>   1853  14.502
>>   1854  15.183
>>   1855  14.828
>>   1856  15.270
>>   1857  14.436
>>   1858  14.721
>>   1859  14.539
>>   1860  14.407
>>   1861  14.832
>>   1862  14.271
>>   1863  14.490
>>   1864  13.953
>>   1865  15.290
>>   1866  14.473
>>   1867  15.414
>>   1868  14.440
>>   1869  15.129
>>   1870  15.022
>>   1871  15.468
>>   1872  14.993
>>   1873  14.890
>>   1874  14.638
>>   1875  14.898
>>   1876  14.993
>>   1877  14.366
>>   1878  14.333
>>   1879  13.454
>>   1880  15.369
>>   1881  15.109
>>   1882  15.187
>>   1883  15.278
>>   1884  14.308
>>   1885  15.026
>>   1886  15.385
>>   1887  15.183
>>   1888  14.127
>>   1889  14.985
>>   1890  15.480
>>   1891  14.717
>>   1892  15.773
>>   1893  14.807
>>   1894  15.451
>>   1895  15.179
>>   1896  13.780
>>   1897  14.531
>>   1898  13.912
>>   1899  14.354
>>   1900  15.290
>>   1901  15.752
>>   1902  14.886
>>   1903  15.216
>>   1904  15.938
>>   1905  15.208
>>   1906  14.279
>>   1907  14.923
>>   1908  15.022
>>   1909  15.501
>>   1910  15.633
>>   1911  15.212
>>   1912  13.648
>>   1913  14.329
>>   1914  15.389
>>   1915  14.704
>>   1916  15.983
>>   1917  14.779
>>   1918  14.432
>>   1919  14.024
>>   1920  14.040
>>   1921  14.622
>>   1922  15.315
>>   1923  14.560
>>   1924  15.835
>>   1925  14.927
>>   1926  14.812
>>   1927  15.220
>>   1928  16.433
>>   1929  14.506
>>   1930  14.535
>>   1931  14.073
>>   1932  14.440
>>   1933  15.406
>>   1934  14.708
>>   1935  15.026
>>   1936  14.106
>>   1937  13.372
>>   1938  14.663
>>   1939  13.842
>>   1940  13.879
>>   1941  14.725
>>   1942  14.510
>>   1943  14.337
>>   1944  15.133
>>   1945  14.189
>>   1946  14.048
>>   1947  14.098
>>   1948  14.923
>>   1949  14.733
>>   1950  14.581
>>   1951  15.121
>>   1952  14.073
>>   1953  14.572
>>   1954  14.106
>>   1955  14.457
>>   1956  14.849
>>   1957  14.626
>>   1958  15.374
>>   1959  15.183
>>   1960  14.970
>>   1961  15.140
>>   1962  15.289
>>   1963  14.991
>>   1964  14.395
>>   1965  14.991
>>   1966  15.587
>>   1967  14.948
>>   1968  14.948
>>   1969  14.629
>>   1970  15.779
>>   1971  16.354
>>   1972  15.247
>>   1973  14.671
>>   1974  15.353
>>   1975  16.141
>>   1976  14.586
>>   1977  14.863
>>   1978  15.332
>>   1979  14.948
>>   1980  14.906
>>   1981  15.481
>>   1982  14.991
>>   1983  14.117
>>   1984  15.353
>>   1985  15.225
>>   1986  15.587
>>   1987  15.140
>>   1988  14.863
>>   1989  16.098
>>   1990  15.417
>>   1991  14.991
>>   1992  14.096
>>   1993  14.160
>>   1994  15.183
>>   1995  15.119
>>   1996  15.630
>>   1997  14.927
>>   1998  15.417
>>   1999  16.354
>>
>>On Jul 17, 2005, at 10:40 PM, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>
>>>Thanks Ricardo and Ed! I personally am not a
>>>big fan of the Jones and Mann SH recon. It is
>>>based on so little. On the other hand, it is in
>>>the literature. So, I leave it up to you and
>  >>Keith to decide - perhaps Eystein can weigh in
>>>too.
>>>
>>>I do, however, think it would be really helpful
>>>to included the borehole data (see prev.
>>>emails) - either as a single SH curve, or
>>>(probably better) two regional curves
>>>(Australia and S. Africa). Is there a reason
>>>this is not a good idea? Can't complain about
>>>snow bias down there...
>>>
>>>Thanks again - I look forward to seeing the
>>>next draft and figure - complete w/ borehole I
>  >>hope.
>>>
>>>thx, Peck
>>>
>>>>Hi Keith,
>>>>
>>>>Please, find attached my last version of the SH temp. As you know, Ed
>Cook
>>>>returned my original version of the SH with minor comments. Overall, he
>>>>agreed with the text. Still I am waiting from him the Oroco Swamp data
to
>>>>include in the Figure, which first draft I sent you more than a month
>ago.
>>>>
>>>>In the last version I have included a first paragraph referring to the
>Jones
>>>>and Mann (2003) temperature reconstruction for the SH.  At that time we
>have
>>>>to decide if we want to have the hemispheric (Jones and Mann) and the
>>>>regional views (Tasmania, New Zealand, Patagonia, maybe include
>Antarctica
>>>>(Ommem et al. 2005)), or just one of them. If we decide to stay with the
>>>>hemispheric view, we should include Jones and Mann reconstruction at the
>>>>bottom of one of your figures. In cases that we decide to maintain both
>>>>hemispheric and regional views, we should include Jones and Mann at the
>>>>bottom of my figure.  Please, could you check with Peck and Eystein to
>see
>>>>the best way to proceed? Thanks,
>>>>
>>>>Ricardo
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>----- Original Message -----
>>>>From: "Keith Briffa"
>>>>To:
; "Eystein Jansen"
>>>>Cc:
; "Ed Cook"
>>>>Sent: Friday, July 15, 2005 11:01 AM
>>>>Subject: the regional section and MWP Figure
>>>>
>>>>>   Guys
>>>>>   still need the SH temp bit from Ricardo/ED to edit and am exploring
>the
>>>>MWP
>>>>>   Figure - but the concept still is unclear to me - but we agreed to
do
>a
>>>>>   plot like Tom's . The regional section is still a worry  - I am
happy
>to
>>>>>   very briefly edit the section on NAO (possibly incorporate the ENSO
>>>>stuff )
>>>>>   but my understanding is that this section is best done (to
incorporate
>>>>also
>>>>>   the regional moisture work of Ed ) by Ricardo /Ed with input my
Peck.
>This
>>>>>   is still my opinion. I also would appreciate feedback re the
regional
>>>>>   forcing section that I think we may have to drop - but perhaps not.
>>>>>   Therefore I ask that when i get the SH temp stuff I will incorporate
>it
>>>>but
>>>>>   that you guys (Peck, Ricardo, Ed and Eystein interacting over the
>North
>>>>>   Atlantic bit) first review and redo the regional section .
>>>>>   It is important to get feedback from Henry re the borehole stuff and
>>>>>   involve Tom in the debate with all of us , of the value of the
Figure
>. In
>>>>>   meantime , will experiment with the Figure and review existing text
>and
>>>>bullets
>>>>>   Keith
>>>>>
>>>>>   Keith
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>   --
>>>>>   Professor Keith Briffa,
>>>>>   Climatic Research Unit
>>>>>   University of East Anglia
>>>>>   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>>>>
>>>>>   Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>>>>   Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>>>>
>>>>>   [1]
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Southern
>>>>hemisphere2.doc (WDBN/«IC») (0008A6E0)
>>>
>>>
>>>--
>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>
>>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>
>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>>University of Arizona
>>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>>[2]
>>>[3]
>>>
>>==================================
>>Dr. Edward R. Cook
>>Doherty Senior Scholar and
>>Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory
>>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
>>Palisades, New York 10964  USA
>>Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu
>>Phone: 845-365-8618
>>Fax: 845-365-8152
>>==================================
>
>
>--
>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>
>Mail and Fedex Address:
>
>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>University of Arizona
>Tucson, AZ 85721
>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>[4]
>[5]
>
>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:SHregteml 1.JPG (JPEG/«IC») (0008ADC3)
--
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
[6]
[7]
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[8]
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.


Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 09:53:34 -0400
From: Tom Crowley
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; PPC Mac OS X Mach-O; en-US; rv:1.4)
Gecko/20030624 Netscape/7.1
X-Accept-Language: en-us, en
To: Keith Briffa
CC: Jonathan Overpeck
,
Eystein Jansen
, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
Subject: Re: CLA feedback on Tom and the MWP
X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0
X-UEA-Spam-Level: /
X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO
Keith, if you can find more I see no problem - it seems that a lot of the data you used
was via Cook and colleagues - I was unable to locate a full length record from Quebec in
that time series, but maybe you are relying on something else - if so can I have it!?
other suggestions:  provide a more general label to sites - eg, mangazeyek (sp)/yamal
could be listed as polar urals - taimyr central Siberia.
China shoudl be relabeled as east Asia as it does include some information from Japan
and the Tibetan Plateau (L. Thompson) and we don't want to get into some political to-do
by calling Tibet "Chinese".
that's all I can think of for present, good sailing, tom
Keith Briffa wrote:
Hi all
think this is resolved now (virtually) -
We use series that total to Tom/Gabi composite , and we can cite this as an example of
the scatter of regional records "in a typical reconstruction". This avoids very
difficult issue of what is the best way to aggregate certain data sets - we are simply
illustrating the point with one published (by then) data set.
The issue of the composite is then not an issue either , because it is not a new
(unpublished) composite that we were concerned about - though I still believe it is a
distraction to put the composite in. It would be best to use data from 800 or 850 at
least , and go to 1500 (?) and presumably normalise over the whole period of data shown.
OK? Even though you guys all wish to go with the reduced period (ie not up the present)
, but my own instinct is that this might later come back to haunt us - but will take
your lead.
I agree the look of the Figure should match the others.
So, if Tom will send the data sets (his regional curves) , Tim will plot and send back
asap for scrutiny.  Thanks Tom and thanks for your help with this - further comments on
latest version of 6.5 (last 2000 years) still welcome , though will be incorporating a
few changes in response to David and Fortunat input , and SH  bit (from Ricardo and Ed)
still to go in and regional section to be revised  (after input from Peck et al.)
cheers
Keith
.
At 21:42 19/07/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
Hi Keith and Tim: Just got off the phone with Eystein, and hopefully he will sleep ok
knowing that we have a plan for the MWP fig and Tom...
Please ask questions if we don't cover all the key points, but here's what we think:
1) the MWP fig should span the MWP only, and should emphasize variation in regional
amplitude (we agree that we must be clear that this fig is not a reconstruction) - that
is, it is best to use time series representing regions, assuming that the regional
series do represent a region ok with one or more input series. We want to avoid a
regional bias if we can - this is what got us into all the MWP misunderstanding in the
first place, perhaps (e.g., nice MWP in Europe/Atlantic region - must be global)
2) If you guys could agree on the series and the interval, that'd be great. We agree it
would be good to start before 1000 and end before the Renaissance (15th century?). If
you want more feedback on these issues, we're happy to provide, but it seems logical
that you pick series and intervals so that each series covers the entire interval
selected.
3) Don't use the Chesapeak record - it is likely biased by salinity
4) We'd like Keith and Tim to draft the final figure so that it matches the look and
style of the other two figs they have made. Hope this is doable. Tom, does Keith have
all the data? Thanks for sending if not.
5) We agree that Tom should NOT be a CA given that he was officially one of the ZOD
reviewers. Of course, this doesn't represent a real conflict, but we need to avoid even
the appearance of conflict. We greatly appreciate all the feedback that Tom is
providing! Is this plan ok w/ you Tom? We think you're cool with it, but just want to
check one more time.
That... it is. Please let us know if there are any more questions. Keith - feel free to
try and get Eystein on his cell doing your work hours if you want quick feedback. Or we
can do this by email - he's not in a very email friendly place right now, but the
fishing appears to be ok.
Again, thanks to you both for all the discussion and thought that has gone into this
figure.
Best, peck
--
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
[1]
[2]
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[3]
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[4]
References
1.
2.
3.
4.


Tim, we are getting close but there are a few items to discuss:
1) seven of the eight time series are from the Hegerl et al paper, now
out for review in Nature
2) the eighth time series is from Brian Luckmans recent extension of the
Alberta record to the 10th century - we used his original time series in
the H et al paper because the comparisons between model and observations
had been going on for a while, in fact before the new Luckman paper came
out, and we did not want to switch horses in midstream by changing the
composite - as you know the Luckman paper is either accepted or
published in CD, so there is no problem changing that
3) although technically the time series are not the same they are very
close, if you want me to do some comparisons I can, but I could not get
to it until probably tuesday of next week - I don't particularly see any
problem in makng such an addition
4) we cannot extend the time series back to 800 without dropping out
something - the reason we start at 945 is that is the first year when
all the records are available - if we go back to 800 we do so at the
cost of dropping 2 or possibly even 3 records.  as our Dark Ages
reconstruction starting at 560 indicates (att.), the biggest warming
between 800-1900 is in the late 10the century (960-995), we did not
think we missing out on anything by starting at 945 rather than 800.
I await your feedback on this increasingly intricate issue, tom
Tim Osborn wrote:
> Hi Tom,
>
> In Keith's email below, when he says "we use series that total to
> Tom/Gabi composite", he doesn't mean that *our* mock up of the figure
> uses these series, but that if the series shown in *your* draft figure
> are the same as those used in the Hegerl/Crowley recon that is
> currently submitted ("...a twice validated climate record...") then we
> will go with *your* figure.  It is fine then to include the "composite
> series" and the instrumental data and a temperature scale.  Our
> previous concerns about these latter points were that it might be seen
> as another new NH temperature reconstruction.  But if in fact the
> composite and its expression as a temperature are not a new NH T
> recon, but are in fact identical to the published (submitted, at
> least) Hegerl/Crowley NH T recon (which is already included in the
> main intercomparison figure) then there's no problem.
>
> Does your figure equate to the new Hegerl/Crowley NH T recon?  If so,
> we should go with your MWP figure, though the CLAs want me to draw it
> in the same style as the others and also cut the time period down to a
> few centuries spanning the MWP.  Keith suggests beginning in 800 or 850.
>
> Would it be possible therefore to send the data series you used for
> your figure, but beginning in 800/850, so I can plot the figure in the
> required form?
>
> Cheers
>
> Tim
>
> At 14:53 20/07/2005, Tom Crowley wrote:
>
>> Keith, if you can find more I see no problem - it seems that a lot of
>> the data you used was via Cook and colleagues - I was unable to
>> locate a full length record from Quebec in that time series, but
>> maybe you are relying on something else - if so can I have it!?
>>
>> other suggestions:  provide a more general label to sites - eg,
>> mangazeyek (sp)/yamal  could be listed as polar urals - taimyr
>> central Siberia.
>>
>> China shoudl be relabeled as east Asia as it does include some
>> information from Japan and the Tibetan Plateau (L. Thompson) and we
>> don't want to get into some political to-do by calling Tibet "Chinese".
>>
>> that's all I can think of for present, good sailing, tom
>>
>> Keith Briffa wrote:
>>
>>> Hi all
>>> think this is resolved now (virtually) -
>>>
>>> We use series that total to Tom/Gabi composite , and we can cite
>>> this as an example of the scatter of regional records "in a typical
>>> reconstruction". This avoids very difficult issue of what is the
>>> best way to aggregate certain data sets - we are simply illustrating
>>> the point with one published (by then) data set.
>>> The issue of the composite is then not an issue either , because it
>>> is not a new (unpublished) composite that we were concerned about -
>>> though I still believe it is a distraction to put the composite in.
>>> It would be best to use data from 800 or 850 at least , and go to
>>> 1500 (?) and presumably normalise over the whole period of data
>>> shown. OK? Even though you guys all wish to go with the reduced
>>> period (ie not up the present) , but my own instinct is that this
>>> might later come back to haunt us - but will take your lead.
>>> I agree the look of the Figure should match the others.
>>> So, if Tom will send the data sets (his regional curves) , Tim will
>>> plot and send back asap for scrutiny.  Thanks Tom and thanks for
>>> your help with this - further comments on latest version of 6.5
>>> (last 2000 years) still welcome , though will be incorporating a few
>>> changes in response to David and Fortunat input , and SH  bit (from
>>> Ricardo and Ed) still to go in and regional section to be revised
>>> (after input from Peck et al.)
>>> cheers
>>> Keith
>>> .
>>>
>>>
>>>  At 21:42 19/07/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>>
>>>> Hi Keith and Tim: Just got off the phone with Eystein, and
>>>> hopefully he will sleep ok knowing that we have a plan for the MWP
>>>> fig and Tom...
>>>>
>>>> Please ask questions if we don't cover all the key points, but
>>>> here's what we think:
>>>>
>>>> 1) the MWP fig should span the MWP only, and should emphasize
>>>> variation in regional amplitude (we agree that we must be clear
>>>> that this fig is not a reconstruction) - that is, it is best to use
>>>> time series representing regions, assuming that the regional series
>>>> do represent a region ok with one or more input series. We want to
>>>> avoid a regional bias if we can - this is what got us into all the
>>>> MWP misunderstanding in the first place, perhaps (e.g., nice MWP in
>>>> Europe/Atlantic region - must be global)
>>>>
>>>> 2) If you guys could agree on the series and the interval, that'd
>>>> be great. We agree it would be good to start before 1000 and end
>>>> before the Renaissance (15th century?). If you want more feedback
>>>> on these issues, we're happy to provide, but it seems logical that
>>>> you pick series and intervals so that each series covers the entire
>>>> interval selected.
>>>>
>>>> 3) Don't use the Chesapeak record - it is likely biased by salinity
>>>>
>>>> 4) We'd like Keith and Tim to draft the final figure so that it
>>>> matches the look and style of the other two figs they have made.
>>>> Hope this is doable. Tom, does Keith have all the data? Thanks for
>>>> sending if not.
>>>>
>>>> 5) We agree that Tom should NOT be a CA given that he was
>>>> officially one of the ZOD reviewers. Of course, this doesn't
>>>> represent a real conflict, but we need to avoid even the appearance
>>>> of conflict. We greatly appreciate all the feedback that Tom is
>>>> providing! Is this plan ok w/ you Tom? We think you're cool with
>>>> it, but just want to check one more time.
>>>>
>>>> That... it is. Please let us know if there are any more questions.
>>>> Keith - feel free to try and get Eystein on his cell doing your
>>>> work hours if you want quick feedback. Or we can do this by email -
>>>> he's not in a very email friendly place right now, but the fishing
>>>> appears to be ok.
>>>>
>>>> Again, thanks to you both for all the discussion and thought that
>>>> has gone into this figure.
>>>>
>>>> Best, peck
>>>> --
>>>> Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>> Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>>
>>>> Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>>
>>>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>>> University of Arizona
>>>> Tucson, AZ 85721
>>>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>>> fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Professor Keith Briffa,
>>> Climatic Research Unit
>>> University of East Anglia
>>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>>
>>> Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>> Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>
> Dr Timothy J Osborn
> Climatic Research Unit
> School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
> Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
>
> e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
> phone:    +44 1603 592089
> fax:      +44 1603 507784
> web:      ~timo/
> sunclock: ~timo/sunclock.htm
>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\CH.DA.jpg"


Ricardo
Tim is contacting Henry now  - so forget Boreholes for time being
cheers
Keith
At 15:23 21/07/2005, Ricardo Villalba wrote:
Hi Keith and all,
Following Peck's advise I will include for each reconstruction the observed
record. Obviously, I have the Patagonian instrumental records, but I need
from Ed the Tasmania and Hokitika (New Zealand) observed records.
Sorry for my ignorance on borehole, but I am not familiar with Henry's work.
If you send me his e-mail, I could ask him for the data and a line of text
on borehole from the SH. Cheers,
Ricardo
----- Original Message -----
From: "Keith Briffa"
To: "Ricardo Villalba"
; "Jonathan Overpeck"
Cc:
;
Sent: Thursday, July 21, 2005 4:51 AM
Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure
Hi Ricardo and all
this all seems fine with me - the question of the temperature observations
is a moot one - but some included seems a good idea  - 1 South American and
1 New Zealand is fine  - length not as important as proximity to the
records shown (but need to see what they l;look like).
will wait on other numbers - Henry is best qualified to cite most
appropriate SH borehole data and could supply a line of text . Ricardo can
you ask him for these?
best wishes
Keith
At 13:52 20/07/2005, Ricardo Villalba wrote:
>Hi Keith, Ed, Peck, Eystein
>
>
>
>Regarding Peck's  suggestions,
>
>
>1) should we include instrumental data? If not, it could lessen the impact.
>
>
>
>Rio de Janeiro, starting in 1851, is the longest, homogeneous temperature
>record from the Southern Hemisphere. In New Zealand and Australia,
>temperature records start at the same time. We do not have any long record
>for the 18th century, even the first half of the 19th century. The
>hemispheric record from the Southern Hemisphere will be discussed in
Chapter
>2 and we do not have any additional information to provide.
>
>
>2) we need to include the two borehole (see previous email from me and Ed)
>
>
>
>Definitely!! I do not have the records here in Mendoza. Keith, do you have
>access to these data? As soon as I receive the borehole records I will
>incorporate them in the figures. I would appreciate receiving the key
>references to properly cite the records.
>
>
>3) we would like to ask Keith and Tim (pretty
>please...) to draft the final figure so that it
>matches the other in the section and MWP box. Is
>this ok, and do you have the data to do the job.
>If not, we trust your kind colleagues can send
>upon request?
>
>
>
>At the time the figure is ready, I will send all the data to Keith and Tim
>to draft the final figure, and the final text to incorporate in the FOD.
>Cheers,
>
>Ricardo
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Jonathan Overpeck"
>To: "Ricardo Villalba"
>Cc: "Keith Briffa"
;
;
>"Eystein Jansen"
>Sent: Tuesday, July 19, 2005 5:55 PM
>Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure
>
>
>Hi SH gang - Thanks for keeping things moving
>Ricardo. Eystein and I just discussed this fig on
>the phone and would like to suggest the following:
>
>1) should we include instrumental data? If not, it could lessen the impact.
>2) we need to include the two borehole (see previous email from me and Ed)
>3) we would like to ask Keith and Tim (pretty
>please...) to draft the final figure so that it
>matches the other in the section and MWP box. Is
>this ok, and do you have the data to do the job.
>If not, we trust your kind colleagues can send
>upon request?
>
>Many thanks, Peck and Eystein
>
> >Dear Keith and Ed,
> >
> >Please, find attached the new version of the SH figure for the IPCC.  I
>have
> >now included the New Zealand record. All the records have been scaled to
4
> >°C amplitude. Variability in the Tas record is reduced compared to New
> >Zealand and Patagonian records. The reference lines is the mean used for
>the
> >calibration period in each record, 15 C for New Zealand, 14.95 C for
> >Tasmania and 0 C for the Patagonian records (they show departures).
Please,
> >let me know if you want to introduce some changes in the figure. The
> >opposite phase in the Patagonia-New Zealand records is so clear before
>1850,
> >which is consistent with our previous TPI. For instance, in the
>instrumental
> >record the 1971 and 1976 are the coolest summer in northern Patagonian
> >during the past 70 years, but the warmest in New Zealand reconstruction!!
> >This out of phase relationship between regions in the Southern Hemisphere
> >points out to the difficulty of using few records to get a hemispheric
> >average. Cheers,
> >
> >Ricardo
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Jonathan Overpeck"
> >To: "edwardcook"
> >Cc: "Keith Briffa"
; "Ricardo Villalba"
;
> >"Eystein Jansen"
> >Sent: Monday, July 18, 2005 1:09 PM
> >Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure
> >
> >
> >Thanks Ed - Ricardo, can you get the data from Henry? What do you think,
> >Keith?
> >Best, Peck
> >
> >>Given the nature of the SH and what Ricardo put
> >>together, I would keep the Australian and South
> >>Aftrican borehole records separate. Henry
> >>Pollack can provide them, I am sure. He gave an
> >>excellent talk at a meeting in Canberra that I
> >>recently participated in.
> >>
> >>Cheers,
> >>
> >>Ed
> >>
> >>P.S. Ricardo, here is the Oroko temperature reconstruction.
> >>
> >>JANUARY-MARCH TEMPERATURES RECONSTRUCTED FROM
> >>OROKO SWAMP, NEW ZEALAND SILVER PINE TREE RINGS
> >>BE ADVISED THAT THE DATA AFTER 1958 ARE INSTRUMENTAL
> >>TEMPERATURES
> >>   YEAR  TEMP °C
> >>    900  13.751
> >>    901  14.461
> >>    902  13.236
> >>    903  13.331
> >>    904  13.483
> >>    905  13.632
> >>    906  12.959
> >>    907  13.628
> >>    908  13.372
> >>    909  12.868
> >>    910  13.244
> >>    911  13.793
> >>    912  14.048
> >>    913  14.444
> >>    914  13.095
> >>    915  14.036
> >>    916  13.215
> >>    917  13.698
> >>    918  13.570
> >>    919  13.665
> >>    920  13.871
> >>    921  13.966
> >>    922  14.762
> >>    923  14.325
> >>    924  14.077
> >>    925  14.713
> >>    926  14.081
> >>    927  14.218
> >>    928  13.793
> >>    929  14.151
> >>    930  14.985
> >>    931  13.599
> >>    932  14.663
> >>    933  14.110
> >>    934  14.968
> >>    935  14.391
> >>    936  15.484
> >>    937  15.554
> >>    938  14.977
> >>    939  15.303
> >>    940  15.179
> >>    941  15.591
> >>    942  14.737
> >>    943  14.007
> >>    944  14.865
> >>    945  14.449
> >>    946  14.350
> >>    947  15.096
> >>    948  15.257
> >>    949  15.789
> >>    950  15.303
> >>    951  15.513
> >>    952  16.111
> >>    953  15.723
> >>    954  15.459
> >>    955  14.015
> >>    956  13.083
> >>    957  13.850
> >>    958  14.069
> >>    959  13.772
> >>    960  14.873
> >>    961  14.692
> >>    962  14.923
> >>    963  14.527
> >>    964  15.034
> >>    965  14.688
> >>    966  14.486
> >>    967  14.444
> >>    968  14.436
> >>    969  13.776
> >>    970  13.809
> >>    971  14.391
> >>    972  13.487
> >>    973  13.995
> >>    974  14.061
> >>    975  14.321
> >>    976  14.882
> >>    977  14.226
> >>    978  14.977
> >>    979  15.447
> >>    980  14.424
> >>    981  14.923
> >>    982  14.180
> >>    983  15.484
> >>    984  13.487
> >>    985  14.168
> >>    986  14.176
> >  >   987  15.699
> >>    988  15.187
> >>    989  16.305
> >>    990  14.845
> >>    991  14.647
> >>    992  15.765
> >>    993  14.754
> >>    994  14.271
> >>    995  13.623
> >>    996  14.300
> >>    997  13.937
> >>    998  14.040
> >>    999  14.011
> >>   1000  12.976
> >>   1001  13.904
> >>   1002  13.500
> >>   1003  13.586
> >>   1004  14.090
> >>   1005  13.809
> >>   1006  13.413
> >>   1007  13.318
> >>   1008  13.892
> >>   1009  14.151
> >>   1010  14.391
> >>   1011  13.793
> >>   1012  14.626
> >>   1013  13.755
> >>   1014  13.838
> >>   1015  13.017
> >  >  1016  13.083
> >>   1017  13.549
> >>   1018  13.471
> >>   1019  13.087
> >>   1020  13.458
> >>   1021  13.203
> >>   1022  14.090
> >>   1023  13.574
> >>   1024  13.755
> >>   1025  13.826
> >>   1026  13.137
> >>   1027  13.194
> >>   1028  14.036
> >>   1029  13.091
> >>   1030  13.768
> >>   1031  13.813
> >>   1032  13.846
> >>   1033  13.871
> >>   1034  14.255
> >>   1035  14.370
> >>   1036  13.805
> >>   1037  14.576
> >>   1038  13.504
> >>   1039  13.867
> >>   1040  14.927
> >>   1041  14.420
> >>   1042  15.661
> >>   1043  15.484
> >>   1044  15.595
> >>   1045  14.741
> >>   1046  13.644
> >>   1047  14.271
> >>   1048  14.288
> >>   1049  13.661
> >>   1050  13.665
> >>   1051  13.298
> >>   1052  14.003
> >>   1053  13.826
> >>   1054  13.788
> >>   1055  13.768
> >>   1056  12.976
> >>   1057  13.397
> >>   1058  13.529
> >>   1059  13.549
> >>   1060  13.846
> >>   1061  14.032
> >>   1062  14.820
> >>   1063  13.962
> >>   1064  14.279
> >>   1065  14.151
> >>   1066  14.358
> >>   1067  14.131
> >>   1068  13.652
> >>   1069  13.941
> >>   1070  14.007
> >>   1071  14.403
> >>   1072  13.764
> >>   1073  13.982
> >>   1074  13.846
> >>   1075  13.830
> >>   1076  13.450
> >>   1077  13.632
> >>   1078  13.265
> >>   1079  13.331
> >>   1080  14.267
> >>   1081  13.644
> >>   1082  13.549
> >>   1083  13.557
> >>   1084  13.549
> >>   1085  14.725
> >>   1086  13.479
> >>   1087  12.848
> >>   1088  12.559
> >>   1089  12.926
> >>   1090  13.793
> >>   1091  14.387
> >>   1092  14.531
> >>   1093  14.114
> >>   1094  14.754
> >>   1095  14.688
> >>   1096  14.845
> >>   1097  14.729
> >>   1098  15.059
> >>   1099  15.059
> >>   1100  15.055
> >>   1101  16.057
> >>   1102  15.208
> >>   1103  15.492
> >>   1104  14.519
> >>   1105  14.741
> >>   1106  14.151
> >>   1107  15.005
> >>   1108  13.640
> >>   1109  13.652
> >>   1110  13.566
> >>   1111  13.978
> >>   1112  14.424
> >>   1113  14.180
> >>   1114  14.931
> >>   1115  14.601
> >>   1116  14.403
> >>   1117  14.391
> >>   1118  14.981
> >>   1119  15.125
> >>   1120  13.817
> >>   1121  12.897
> >>   1122  13.863
> >>   1123  14.271
> >>   1124  14.857
> >>   1125  14.882
> >>   1126  14.762
> >>   1127  14.548
> >>   1128  14.403
> >>   1129  14.667
> >>   1130  14.572
> >>   1131  14.057
> >>   1132  14.556
> >>   1133  15.018
> >>   1134  13.892
> >>   1135  13.995
> >>   1136  13.982
> >>   1137  14.853
> >>   1138  14.779
> >>   1139  15.129
> >>   1140  15.117
> >>   1141  14.849
> >>   1142  15.228
> >>   1143  15.216
> >>   1144  15.030
> >>   1145  14.428
> >>   1146  15.063
> >>   1147  15.216
> >>   1148  15.043
> >>   1149  15.034
> >>   1150  14.370
> >>   1151  15.096
> >>   1152  15.410
> >>   1153  15.719
> >>   1154  16.577
> >>   1155  15.769
> >>   1156  15.364
> >>   1157  15.855
> >>   1158  15.422
> >>   1159  14.515
> >>   1160  15.810
> >>   1161  15.628
> >>   1162  15.402
> >>   1163  15.092
> >>   1164  15.298
> >>   1165  14.865
> >>   1166  14.882
> >>   1167  15.274
> >>   1168  14.605
> >>   1169  14.746
> >>   1170  15.472
> >>   1171  15.509
> >>   1172  15.018
> >>   1173  15.369
> >>   1174  15.084
> >>   1175  15.855
> >>   1176  14.795
> >>   1177  15.571
> >>   1178  14.255
> >>   1179  14.510
> >>   1180  14.865
> >>   1181  14.036
> >>   1182  14.688
> >>   1183  14.713
> >>   1184  14.519
> >>   1185  14.255
> >>   1186  15.204
> >>   1187  14.461
> >>   1188  15.476
> >>   1189  14.882
> >>   1190  15.005
> >>   1191  14.453
> >>   1192  14.729
> >>   1193  15.265
> >>   1194  14.444
> >>   1195  14.696
> >>   1196  15.793
> >>   1197  14.581
> >>   1198  15.014
> >>   1199  14.539
> >>   1200  14.044
> >>   1201  14.733
> >>   1202  14.853
> >>   1203  15.298
> >>   1204  13.772
> >>   1205  13.991
> >>   1206  14.651
> >>   1207  14.836
> >>   1208  14.440
> >>   1209  15.162
> >>   1210  14.766
> >>   1211  15.010
> >>   1212  15.356
> >>   1213  14.787
> >>   1214  15.645
> >>   1215  15.435
> >>   1216  15.043
> >>   1217  15.063
> >>   1218  14.151
> >>   1219  15.397
> >>   1220  15.154
> >>   1221  15.892
> >>   1222  15.488
> >>   1223  15.938
> >>   1224  15.525
> >>   1225  15.591
> >>   1226  14.589
> >>   1227  15.496
> >>   1228  15.963
> >>   1229  14.502
> >>   1230  14.457
> >>   1231  15.468
> >>   1232  14.985
> >>   1233  15.282
> >>   1234  14.989
> >>   1235  15.237
> >>   1236  15.711
> >>   1237  15.888
> >>   1238  14.259
> >>   1239  14.560
> >>   1240  15.711
> >>   1241  15.195
> >>   1242  15.484
> >>   1243  15.166
> >  >  1244  16.020
> >>   1245  16.454
> >>   1246  15.480
> >>   1247  15.492
> >>   1248  16.528
> >>   1249  15.150
> >>   1250  14.436
> >>   1251  14.878
> >>   1252  15.723
> >>   1253  15.043
> >>   1254  15.121
> >>   1255  14.845
> >>   1256  14.807
> >>   1257  14.482
> >>   1258  14.585
> >>   1259  15.307
> >>   1260  15.100
> >>   1261  14.354
> >>   1262  13.995
> >>   1263  14.106
> >>   1264  14.403
> >>   1265  14.754
> >>   1266  14.581
> >>   1267  14.799
> >>   1268  14.378
> >>   1269  14.671
> >>   1270  14.193
> >>   1271  14.387
> >>   1272  14.453
> >  >  1273  14.510
> >>   1274  15.187
> >>   1275  15.393
> >>   1276  14.498
> >>   1277  14.560
> >>   1278  15.022
> >>   1279  14.498
> >>   1280  14.725
> >>   1281  13.549
> >>   1282  14.977
> >>   1283  14.065
> >>   1284  14.024
> >>   1285  13.603
> >>   1286  15.220
> >>   1287  15.080
> >>   1288  14.898
> >>   1289  14.774
> >>   1290  15.542
> >>   1291  15.212
> >>   1292  14.267
> >>   1293  14.692
> >>   1294  13.644
> >>   1295  14.222
> >>   1296  15.038
> >>   1297  14.721
> >>   1298  15.682
> >>   1299  13.896
> >>   1300  14.766
> >>   1301  14.836
> >>   1302  14.370
> >>   1303  14.812
> >>   1304  14.812
> >>   1305  13.673
> >>   1306  14.036
> >>   1307  13.929
> >>   1308  14.807
> >>   1309  14.114
> >>   1310  13.446
> >>   1311  13.368
> >>   1312  14.168
> >>   1313  14.989
> >>   1314  14.292
> >>   1315  14.985
> >>   1316  14.123
> >>   1317  14.321
> >>   1318  13.966
> >>   1319  14.325
> >>   1320  14.647
> >>   1321  14.622
> >>   1322  14.279
> >>   1323  14.510
> >>   1324  13.689
> >>   1325  13.450
> >>   1326  14.197
> >>   1327  13.867
> >>   1328  14.205
> >>   1329  14.779
> >>   1330  14.350
> >>   1331  14.729
> >>   1332  13.479
> >>   1333  13.974
> >>   1334  14.453
> >>   1335  14.535
> >>   1336  15.402
> >>   1337  14.424
> >>   1338  14.399
> >>   1339  14.906
> >>   1340  15.430
> >>   1341  14.531
> >>   1342  15.785
> >>   1343  15.513
> >>   1344  15.220
> >>   1345  15.352
> >>   1346  15.443
> >>   1347  15.410
> >>   1348  15.777
> >>   1349  14.902
> >>   1350  14.576
> >>   1351  14.605
> >>   1352  14.168
> >>   1353  14.601
> >>   1354  15.414
> >>   1355  14.300
> >>   1356  14.630
> >>   1357  15.170
> >>   1358  14.919
> >>   1359  14.688
> >>   1360  14.081
> >>   1361  14.799
> >>   1362  14.581
> >>   1363  15.133
> >>   1364  13.838
> >>   1365  14.708
> >>   1366  13.149
> >>   1367  13.281
> >>   1368  13.760
> >>   1369  14.123
> >>   1370  13.314
> >>   1371  14.523
> >>   1372  14.267
> >>   1373  14.226
> >>   1374  14.044
> >>   1375  14.271
> >>   1376  15.307
> >>   1377  14.684
> >>   1378  14.168
> >>   1379  14.473
> >>   1380  13.578
> >>   1381  13.586
> >>   1382  13.999
> >>   1383  13.991
> >>   1384  13.710
> >>   1385  14.411
> >>   1386  13.867
> >>   1387  14.255
> >>   1388  13.611
> >>   1389  13.974
> >>   1390  13.916
> >>   1391  13.615
> >>   1392  14.440
> >>   1393  14.787
> >>   1394  15.880
> >>   1395  16.297
> >>   1396  16.289
> >>   1397  15.170
> >>   1398  16.082
> >>   1399  15.463
> >>   1400  14.366
> >>   1401  14.758
> >>   1402  14.902
> >>   1403  14.568
> >>   1404  15.158
> >>   1405  15.579
> >>   1406  13.966
> >>   1407  13.970
> >>   1408  13.772
> >>   1409  14.523
> >>   1410  14.498
> >>   1411  14.791
> >>   1412  14.007
> >>   1413  15.818
> >>   1414  13.974
> >>   1415  13.776
> >>   1416  13.760
> >>   1417  14.407
> >>   1418  14.498
> >>   1419  14.515
> >>   1420  14.341
> >>   1421  14.374
> >>   1422  13.677
> >>   1423  14.354
> >>   1424  13.223
> >>   1425  13.801
> >>   1426  14.560
> >>   1427  14.374
> >>   1428  14.494
> >>   1429  15.051
> >>   1430  14.836
> >>   1431  13.999
> >>   1432  14.341
> >>   1433  14.865
> >>   1434  15.063
> >>   1435  15.311
> >>   1436  15.765
> >>   1437  15.789
> >>   1438  15.204
> >>   1439  15.298
> >>   1440  15.257
> >>   1441  15.443
> >>   1442  14.737
> >>   1443  15.385
> >>   1444  15.723
> >>   1445  14.717
> >>   1446  15.088
> >>   1447  15.253
> >>   1448  14.477
> >>   1449  16.004
> >>   1450  14.581
> >>   1451  14.449
> >>   1452  14.993
> >>   1453  14.151
> >>   1454  14.556
> >>   1455  14.366
> >>   1456  14.601
> >>   1457  13.813
> >>   1458  14.242
> >>   1459  15.047
> >>   1460  14.919
> >>   1461  14.300
> >>   1462  15.010
> >>   1463  14.139
> >>   1464  15.001
> >>   1465  14.873
> >>   1466  15.406
> >>   1467  14.399
> >>   1468  14.671
> >>   1469  15.092
> >>   1470  14.337
> >>   1471  14.948
> >>   1472  15.047
> >>   1473  14.523
> >>   1474  14.680
> >>   1475  14.395
> >>   1476  15.661
> >>   1477  15.158
> >>   1478  15.414
> >>   1479  15.641
> >>   1480  15.909
> >>   1481  15.748
> >>   1482  14.708
> >>   1483  14.981
> >>   1484  14.659
> >>   1485  15.113
> >>   1486  14.754
> >>   1487  15.740
> >>   1488  15.327
> >>   1489  15.125
> >>   1490  15.026
> >>   1491  15.567
> >>   1492  15.265
> >>   1493  15.996
> >>   1494  16.326
> >>   1495  14.915
> >>   1496  15.831
> >>   1497  14.845
> >>   1498  15.670
> >>   1499  16.156
> >>   1500  15.864
> >  >  1501  15.831
> >>   1502  16.581
> >>   1503  15.212
> >>   1504  15.534
> >>   1505  15.270
> >>   1506  15.492
> >>   1507  15.633
> >>   1508  14.420
> >>   1509  15.723
> >>   1510  14.816
> >>   1511  15.282
> >>   1512  15.641
> >>   1513  14.655
> >>   1514  14.510
> >>   1515  13.508
> >>   1516  14.172
> >>   1517  14.251
> >>   1518  13.628
> >>   1519  13.698
> >>   1520  13.405
> >>   1521  13.920
> >>   1522  13.974
> >>   1523  13.978
> >>   1524  14.238
> >>   1525  14.003
> >>   1526  13.298
> >>   1527  13.694
> >>   1528  15.005
> >>   1529  14.218
> >  >  1530  14.110
> >>   1531  14.593
> >>   1532  13.916
> >>   1533  14.510
> >>   1534  14.057
> >>   1535  14.048
> >>   1536  13.673
> >>   1537  14.477
> >>   1538  14.090
> >>   1539  14.300
> >>   1540  14.374
> >>   1541  14.387
> >>   1542  14.085
> >>   1543  14.184
> >>   1544  14.597
> >>   1545  14.783
> >>   1546  15.348
> >>   1547  15.859
> >>   1548  15.835
> >>   1549  14.729
> >>   1550  15.451
> >>   1551  15.204
> >>   1552  15.022
> >>   1553  15.352
> >>   1554  14.251
> >>   1555  14.135
> >>   1556  14.609
> >>   1557  14.572
> >>   1558  15.224
> >>   1559  14.688
> >>   1560  14.618
> >>   1561  15.179
> >>   1562  14.399
> >>   1563  14.873
> >>   1564  13.652
> >>   1565  13.958
> >>   1566  15.595
> >>   1567  14.898
> >>   1568  13.595
> >>   1569  14.019
> >>   1570  15.030
> >>   1571  15.228
> >>   1572  15.241
> >>   1573  16.355
> >>   1574  14.865
> >>   1575  14.923
> >>   1576  15.542
> >>   1577  15.162
> >>   1578  14.956
> >>   1579  15.657
> >>   1580  15.208
> >>   1581  15.208
> >>   1582  15.166
> >>   1583  14.473
> >>   1584  14.052
> >>   1585  14.213
> >>   1586  14.568
> >>   1587  14.762
> >>   1588  14.288
> >>   1589  14.069
> >>   1590  13.929
> >>   1591  13.479
> >>   1592  14.044
> >>   1593  14.267
> >>   1594  14.288
> >>   1595  14.609
> >>   1596  14.362
> >>   1597  13.846
> >>   1598  14.098
> >>   1599  14.147
> >>   1600  14.783
> >>   1601  13.995
> >>   1602  13.925
> >>   1603  13.999
> >>   1604  14.688
> >>   1605  13.892
> >>   1606  15.410
> >>   1607  14.325
> >>   1608  15.241
> >>   1609  15.104
> >>   1610  14.531
> >>   1611  15.958
> >>   1612  14.597
> >>   1613  14.337
> >>   1614  14.647
> >>   1615  13.318
> >>   1616  14.424
> >>   1617  13.768
> >>   1618  14.779
> >>   1619  14.886
> >>   1620  14.065
> >>   1621  14.085
> >>   1622  14.626
> >>   1623  13.912
> >>   1624  13.487
> >>   1625  14.292
> >>   1626  13.075
> >>   1627  13.871
> >>   1628  13.850
> >>   1629  13.755
> >>   1630  14.680
> >>   1631  14.048
> >>   1632  14.601
> >>   1633  15.752
> >>   1634  14.420
> >>   1635  14.085
> >>   1636  14.230
> >>   1637  15.426
> >>   1638  16.322
> >>   1639  14.762
> >>   1640  14.882
> >>   1641  14.985
> >>   1642  14.931
> >>   1643  15.484
> >>   1644  15.843
> >>   1645  14.861
> >>   1646  14.284
> >>   1647  14.494
> >>   1648  14.935
> >>   1649  13.966
> >>   1650  14.296
> >>   1651  13.768
> >>   1652  15.001
> >>   1653  14.944
> >>   1654  15.418
> >>   1655  15.146
> >>   1656  14.915
> >>   1657  14.803
> >>   1658  14.638
> >>   1659  14.630
> >>   1660  14.052
> >>   1661  13.702
> >>   1662  14.081
> >>   1663  14.312
> >>   1664  14.197
> >>   1665  13.780
> >>   1666  14.292
> >>   1667  14.634
> >>   1668  13.768
> >>   1669  14.671
> >>   1670  14.246
> >>   1671  14.812
> >>   1672  15.216
> >>   1673  15.810
> >>   1674  14.869
> >>   1675  16.148
> >>   1676  14.977
> >>   1677  14.923
> >>   1678  15.488
> >>   1679  14.956
> >>   1680  14.098
> >>   1681  14.523
> >>   1682  15.327
> >>   1683  15.666
> >>   1684  15.554
> >>   1685  15.270
> >>   1686  15.492
> >>   1687  15.459
> >>   1688  14.754
> >>   1689  14.741
> >>   1690  14.700
> >>   1691  14.906
> >>   1692  13.904
> >>   1693  14.527
> >>   1694  15.063
> >>   1695  14.399
> >>   1696  15.096
> >>   1697  15.360
> >>   1698  15.694
> >>   1699  15.249
> >>   1700  14.779
> >>   1701  14.609
> >>   1702  15.336
> >>   1703  15.121
> >>   1704  15.154
> >>   1705  15.212
> >>   1706  14.750
> >>   1707  15.472
> >>   1708  14.164
> >>   1709  13.665
> >>   1710  14.213
> >>   1711  14.741
> >>   1712  15.521
> >>   1713  15.410
> >>   1714  14.519
> >>   1715  15.154
> >>   1716  14.597
> >>   1717  15.212
> >>   1718  14.688
> >>   1719  13.962
> >>   1720  15.109
> >>   1721  15.839
> >>   1722  15.765
> >>   1723  15.001
> >>   1724  15.389
> >>   1725  15.088
> >>   1726  14.655
> >>   1727  14.312
> >>   1728  14.824
> >>   1729  14.981
> >>   1730  13.640
> >>   1731  15.043
> >>   1732  13.953
> >>   1733  13.681
> >>   1734  14.036
> >>   1735  13.937
> >>   1736  14.832
> >>   1737  14.807
> >>   1738  14.325
> >>   1739  14.337
> >>   1740  14.680
> >>   1741  14.779
> >>   1742  14.255
> >>   1743  14.205
> >>   1744  14.024
> >>   1745  14.069
> >>   1746  15.216
> >>   1747  15.455
> >>   1748  15.447
> >>   1749  15.851
> >>   1750  15.253
> >>   1751  14.626
> >>   1752  15.294
> >>   1753  15.744
> >>   1754  15.158
> >>   1755  14.750
> >>   1756  15.319
> >>   1757  15.059
> >  >  1758  15.195
> >>   1759  14.725
> >>   1760  14.609
> >>   1761  14.869
> >>   1762  15.212
> >>   1763  15.505
> >>   1764  14.634
> >>   1765  15.175
> >>   1766  14.552
> >>   1767  15.109
> >>   1768  14.312
> >>   1769  14.090
> >>   1770  14.246
> >>   1771  14.127
> >>   1772  14.667
> >>   1773  14.312
> >>   1774  14.659
> >>   1775  14.296
> >>   1776  14.527
> >>   1777  14.069
> >>   1778  15.005
> >>   1779  14.832
> >>   1780  15.146
> >>   1781  14.865
> >>   1782  14.102
> >>   1783  13.735
> >>   1784  14.510
> >>   1785  14.052
> >>   1786  14.795
> >  >  1787  15.455
> >>   1788  15.298
> >>   1789  14.325
> >>   1790  14.927
> >>   1791  14.230
> >>   1792  14.230
> >>   1793  14.836
> >>   1794  15.637
> >>   1795  15.022
> >>   1796  14.473
> >>   1797  14.968
> >>   1798  14.028
> >>   1799  13.463
> >>   1800  14.151
> >>   1801  15.187
> >>   1802  15.290
> >>   1803  15.732
> >>   1804  14.985
> >>   1805  15.224
> >>   1806  16.251
> >>   1807  13.289
> >>   1808  14.420
> >>   1809  14.696
> >>   1810  14.568
> >>   1811  15.802
> >>   1812  16.082
> >>   1813  16.416
> >>   1814  16.082
> >>   1815  16.309
> >>   1816  15.967
> >>   1817  16.247
> >>   1818  15.208
> >>   1819  15.587
> >>   1820  15.323
> >>   1821  15.505
> >>   1822  14.812
> >>   1823  15.298
> >>   1824  15.022
> >>   1825  15.179
> >>   1826  15.967
> >>   1827  14.040
> >>   1828  14.449
> >>   1829  14.242
> >>   1830  14.548
> >>   1831  14.378
> >>   1832  15.137
> >>   1833  13.496
> >>   1834  14.081
> >>   1835  15.228
> >>   1836  14.700
> >>   1837  14.432
> >>   1838  14.927
> >>   1839  14.482
> >>   1840  15.175
> >>   1841  14.296
> >>   1842  14.762
> >>   1843  14.350
> >>   1844  14.770
> >>   1845  15.026
> >>   1846  14.688
> >>   1847  14.944
> >>   1848  15.088
> >>   1849  14.774
> >>   1850  14.865
> >>   1851  14.787
> >>   1852  14.527
> >>   1853  14.502
> >>   1854  15.183
> >>   1855  14.828
> >>   1856  15.270
> >>   1857  14.436
> >>   1858  14.721
> >>   1859  14.539
> >>   1860  14.407
> >>   1861  14.832
> >>   1862  14.271
> >>   1863  14.490
> >>   1864  13.953
> >>   1865  15.290
> >>   1866  14.473
> >>   1867  15.414
> >>   1868  14.440
> >>   1869  15.129
> >>   1870  15.022
> >>   1871  15.468
> >>   1872  14.993
> >>   1873  14.890
> >>   1874  14.638
> >>   1875  14.898
> >>   1876  14.993
> >>   1877  14.366
> >>   1878  14.333
> >>   1879  13.454
> >>   1880  15.369
> >>   1881  15.109
> >>   1882  15.187
> >>   1883  15.278
> >>   1884  14.308
> >>   1885  15.026
> >>   1886  15.385
> >>   1887  15.183
> >>   1888  14.127
> >>   1889  14.985
> >>   1890  15.480
> >>   1891  14.717
> >>   1892  15.773
> >>   1893  14.807
> >>   1894  15.451
> >>   1895  15.179
> >>   1896  13.780
> >>   1897  14.531
> >>   1898  13.912
> >>   1899  14.354
> >>   1900  15.290
> >>   1901  15.752
> >>   1902  14.886
> >>   1903  15.216
> >>   1904  15.938
> >>   1905  15.208
> >>   1906  14.279
> >>   1907  14.923
> >>   1908  15.022
> >>   1909  15.501
> >>   1910  15.633
> >>   1911  15.212
> >>   1912  13.648
> >>   1913  14.329
> >>   1914  15.389
> >>   1915  14.704
> >>   1916  15.983
> >>   1917  14.779
> >>   1918  14.432
> >>   1919  14.024
> >>   1920  14.040
> >>   1921  14.622
> >>   1922  15.315
> >>   1923  14.560
> >>   1924  15.835
> >>   1925  14.927
> >>   1926  14.812
> >>   1927  15.220
> >>   1928  16.433
> >>   1929  14.506
> >>   1930  14.535
> >>   1931  14.073
> >>   1932  14.440
> >>   1933  15.406
> >>   1934  14.708
> >>   1935  15.026
> >>   1936  14.106
> >>   1937  13.372
> >>   1938  14.663
> >>   1939  13.842
> >>   1940  13.879
> >>   1941  14.725
> >>   1942  14.510
> >>   1943  14.337
> >>   1944  15.133
> >>   1945  14.189
> >>   1946  14.048
> >>   1947  14.098
> >>   1948  14.923
> >>   1949  14.733
> >>   1950  14.581
> >>   1951  15.121
> >>   1952  14.073
> >>   1953  14.572
> >>   1954  14.106
> >>   1955  14.457
> >>   1956  14.849
> >>   1957  14.626
> >>   1958  15.374
> >>   1959  15.183
> >>   1960  14.970
> >>   1961  15.140
> >>   1962  15.289
> >>   1963  14.991
> >>   1964  14.395
> >>   1965  14.991
> >>   1966  15.587
> >>   1967  14.948
> >>   1968  14.948
> >>   1969  14.629
> >>   1970  15.779
> >>   1971  16.354
> >>   1972  15.247
> >>   1973  14.671
> >>   1974  15.353
> >>   1975  16.141
> >>   1976  14.586
> >>   1977  14.863
> >>   1978  15.332
> >>   1979  14.948
> >>   1980  14.906
> >>   1981  15.481
> >>   1982  14.991
> >>   1983  14.117
> >>   1984  15.353
> >>   1985  15.225
> >>   1986  15.587
> >>   1987  15.140
> >>   1988  14.863
> >>   1989  16.098
> >>   1990  15.417
> >>   1991  14.991
> >>   1992  14.096
> >>   1993  14.160
> >>   1994  15.183
> >>   1995  15.119
> >>   1996  15.630
> >>   1997  14.927
> >>   1998  15.417
> >>   1999  16.354
> >>
> >>On Jul 17, 2005, at 10:40 PM, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
> >>
> >>>Thanks Ricardo and Ed! I personally am not a
> >>>big fan of the Jones and Mann SH recon. It is
> >>>based on so little. On the other hand, it is in
> >>>the literature. So, I leave it up to you and
> >  >>Keith to decide - perhaps Eystein can weigh in
> >>>too.
> >>>
> >>>I do, however, think it would be really helpful
> >>>to included the borehole data (see prev.
> >>>emails) - either as a single SH curve, or
> >>>(probably better) two regional curves
> >>>(Australia and S. Africa). Is there a reason
> >>>this is not a good idea? Can't complain about
> >>>snow bias down there...
> >>>
> >>>Thanks again - I look forward to seeing the
> >>>next draft and figure - complete w/ borehole I
> >  >>hope.
> >>>
> >>>thx, Peck
> >>>
> >>>>Hi Keith,
> >>>>
> >>>>Please, find attached my last version of the SH temp. As you know, Ed
> >Cook
> >>>>returned my original version of the SH with minor comments. Overall,
he
> >>>>agreed with the text. Still I am waiting from him the Oroco Swamp data
>to
> >>>>include in the Figure, which first draft I sent you more than a month
> >ago.
> >>>>
> >>>>In the last version I have included a first paragraph referring to the
> >Jones
> >>>>and Mann (2003) temperature reconstruction for the SH.  At that time
we
> >have
> >>>>to decide if we want to have the hemispheric (Jones and Mann) and the
> >>>>regional views (Tasmania, New Zealand, Patagonia, maybe include
> >Antarctica
> >>>>(Ommem et al. 2005)), or just one of them. If we decide to stay with
the
> >>>>hemispheric view, we should include Jones and Mann reconstruction at
the
> >>>>bottom of one of your figures. In cases that we decide to maintain
both
> >>>>hemispheric and regional views, we should include Jones and Mann at
the
> >>>>bottom of my figure.  Please, could you check with Peck and Eystein to
> >see
> >>>>the best way to proceed? Thanks,
> >>>>
> >>>>Ricardo
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>----- Original Message -----
> >>>>From: "Keith Briffa"
> >>>>To:
; "Eystein Jansen"
> >>>>Cc:
; "Ed Cook"
> >>>>Sent: Friday, July 15, 2005 11:01 AM
> >>>>Subject: the regional section and MWP Figure
> >>>>
> >>>>>   Guys
> >>>>>   still need the SH temp bit from Ricardo/ED to edit and am
exploring
> >the
> >>>>MWP
> >>>>>   Figure - but the concept still is unclear to me - but we agreed to
>do
> >a
> >>>>>   plot like Tom's . The regional section is still a worry  - I am
>happy
> >to
> >>>>>   very briefly edit the section on NAO (possibly incorporate the
ENSO
> >>>>stuff )
> >>>>>   but my understanding is that this section is best done (to
>incorporate
> >>>>also
> >>>>>   the regional moisture work of Ed ) by Ricardo /Ed with input my
>Peck.
> >This
> >>>>>   is still my opinion. I also would appreciate feedback re the
>regional
> >>>>>   forcing section that I think we may have to drop - but perhaps
not.
> >>>>>   Therefore I ask that when i get the SH temp stuff I will
incorporate
> >it
> >>>>but
> >>>>>   that you guys (Peck, Ricardo, Ed and Eystein interacting over the
> >North
> >>>>>   Atlantic bit) first review and redo the regional section .
> >>>>>   It is important to get feedback from Henry re the borehole stuff
and
> >>>>>   involve Tom in the debate with all of us , of the value of the
>Figure
> >. In
> >>>>>   meantime , will experiment with the Figure and review existing
text
> >and
> >>>>bullets
> >>>>>   Keith
> >>>>>
> >>>>>   Keith
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>   --
> >>>>>   Professor Keith Briffa,
> >>>>>   Climatic Research Unit
> >>>>>   University of East Anglia
> >>>>>   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>   Phone: +44-1603-593909
> >>>>>   Fax: +44-1603-507784
> >>>>>
> >>>>>   [1]
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Southern
> >>>>hemisphere2.doc (WDBN/«IC») (0008A6E0)
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>--
> >>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
> >>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
> >>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
> >>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
> >>>
> >>>Mail and Fedex Address:
> >>>
> >>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
> >>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
> >>>University of Arizona
> >>>Tucson, AZ 85721
> >>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
> >>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
> >>>[2]
> >>>[3]
> >>>
> >>==================================
> >>Dr. Edward R. Cook
> >>Doherty Senior Scholar and
> >>Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory
> >>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
> >>Palisades, New York 10964  USA
> >>Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu
> >>Phone: 845-365-8618
> >>Fax: 845-365-8152
> >>==================================
> >
> >
> >--
> >Jonathan T. Overpeck
> >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
> >Professor, Department of Geosciences
> >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
> >
> >Mail and Fedex Address:
> >
> >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
> >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
> >University of Arizona
> >Tucson, AZ 85721
> >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
> >fax: +1 520 792-8795
> >[4]
> >[5]
> >
> >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:SHregteml 1.JPG (JPEG/«IC») (0008ADC3)
>
>
>--
>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>
>Mail and Fedex Address:
>
>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>University of Arizona
>Tucson, AZ 85721
>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>[6]
>[7]
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[8]
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[9]
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.


Hi Tom,
In Keith's email below, when he says "we use series that total to Tom/Gabi
composite", he doesn't mean that *our* mock up of the figure uses these
series, but that if the series shown in *your* draft figure are the same as
those used in the Hegerl/Crowley recon that is currently submitted ("...a
twice validated climate record...") then we will go with *your* figure.  It
is fine then to include the "composite series" and the instrumental data
and a temperature scale.  Our previous concerns about these latter points
were that it might be seen as another new NH temperature
reconstruction.  But if in fact the composite and its expression as a
temperature are not a new NH T recon, but are in fact identical to the
published (submitted, at least) Hegerl/Crowley NH T recon (which is already
included in the main intercomparison figure) then there's no problem.
Does your figure equate to the new Hegerl/Crowley NH T recon?  If so, we
should go with your MWP figure, though the CLAs want me to draw it in the
same style as the others and also cut the time period down to a few
centuries spanning the MWP.  Keith suggests beginning in 800 or 850.
Would it be possible therefore to send the data series you used for your
figure, but beginning in 800/850, so I can plot the figure in the required
form?
Cheers
Tim
At 14:53 20/07/2005, Tom Crowley wrote:
>Keith, if you can find more I see no problem - it seems that a lot of the
>data you used was via Cook and colleagues - I was unable to locate a full
>length record from Quebec in that time series, but maybe you are relying
>on something else - if so can I have it!?
>
>other suggestions:  provide a more general label to sites - eg, mangazeyek
>(sp)/yamal  could be listed as polar urals - taimyr central Siberia.
>
>China shoudl be relabeled as east Asia as it does include some information
>from Japan and the Tibetan Plateau (L. Thompson) and we don't want to get
>into some political to-do by calling Tibet "Chinese".
>
>that's all I can think of for present, good sailing, tom
>
>Keith Briffa wrote:
>
>>Hi all
>>think this is resolved now (virtually) -
>>
>>We use series that total to Tom/Gabi composite , and we can cite this as
>>an example of the scatter of regional records "in a typical
>>reconstruction". This avoids very difficult issue of what is the best way
>>to aggregate certain data sets - we are simply illustrating the point
>>with one published (by then) data set.
>>The issue of the composite is then not an issue either , because it is
>>not a new (unpublished) composite that we were concerned about - though I
>>still believe it is a distraction to put the composite in. It would be
>>best to use data from 800 or 850 at least , and go to 1500 (?) and
>>presumably normalise over the whole period of data shown. OK? Even though
>>you guys all wish to go with the reduced period (ie not up the present) ,
>>but my own instinct is that this might later come back to haunt us - but
>>will take your lead.
>>I agree the look of the Figure should match the others.
>>So, if Tom will send the data sets (his regional curves) , Tim will plot
>>and send back asap for scrutiny.  Thanks Tom and thanks for your help
>>with this - further comments on latest version of 6.5 (last 2000 years)
>>still welcome , though will be incorporating a few changes in response to
>>David and Fortunat input , and SH  bit (from Ricardo and Ed) still to go
>>in and regional section to be revised  (after input from Peck et al.)
>>cheers
>>Keith
>>.
>>
>>
>>  At 21:42 19/07/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>
>>>Hi Keith and Tim: Just got off the phone with Eystein, and hopefully he
>>>will sleep ok knowing that we have a plan for the MWP fig and Tom...
>>>
>>>Please ask questions if we don't cover all the key points, but here's
>>>what we think:
>>>
>>>1) the MWP fig should span the MWP only, and should emphasize variation
>>>in regional amplitude (we agree that we must be clear that this fig is
>>>not a reconstruction) - that is, it is best to use time series
>>>representing regions, assuming that the regional series do represent a
>>>region ok with one or more input series. We want to avoid a regional
>>>bias if we can - this is what got us into all the MWP misunderstanding
>>>in the first place, perhaps (e.g., nice MWP in Europe/Atlantic region -
>>>must be global)
>>>
>>>2) If you guys could agree on the series and the interval, that'd be
>>>great. We agree it would be good to start before 1000 and end before the
>>>Renaissance (15th century?). If you want more feedback on these issues,
>>>we're happy to provide, but it seems logical that you pick series and
>>>intervals so that each series covers the entire interval selected.
>>>
>>>3) Don't use the Chesapeak record - it is likely biased by salinity
>>>
>>>4) We'd like Keith and Tim to draft the final figure so that it matches
>>>the look and style of the other two figs they have made. Hope this is
>>>doable. Tom, does Keith have all the data? Thanks for sending if not.
>>>
>>>5) We agree that Tom should NOT be a CA given that he was officially one
>>>of the ZOD reviewers. Of course, this doesn't represent a real conflict,
>>>but we need to avoid even the appearance of conflict. We greatly
>>>appreciate all the feedback that Tom is providing! Is this plan ok w/
>>>you Tom? We think you're cool with it, but just want to check one more time.
>>>
>>>That... it is. Please let us know if there are any more questions. Keith
>>>- feel free to try and get Eystein on his cell doing your work hours if
>>>you want quick feedback. Or we can do this by email - he's not in a very
>>>email friendly place right now, but the fishing appears to be ok.
>>>
>>>Again, thanks to you both for all the discussion and thought that has
>>>gone into this figure.
>>>
>>>Best, peck
>>>--
>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>
>>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>
>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>>University of Arizona
>>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>--
>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>Climatic Research Unit
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>
>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>
>>
>
Dr Timothy J Osborn
Climatic Research Unit
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
phone:    +44 1603 592089
fax:      +44 1603 507784
web:      ~timo/
sunclock: ~timo/sunclock.htm


Hi  Eyestein,
Thanks for your comments. With respect to the
suggested changes in paragraphs 1,2 and 4, they
seem fine to me. However, I think we need to
include in paragraph 5 potential reasons as to
why the substantial (and not just significant)
high latitude warming that appears in the
mid-Pliocene record is not produced in GCMs in
response to higher CO2, in general - otherwise we
leave the reader with a big question and no
possible solution. The tendency of GCM
simulations for the future climate to produce an
NADW decrease forces those simulations to have
minimal high latitude warming in the North
Atlantic, exactly opposite the inference from the
Pliocene paleo-record (which is quite robust in
this respect at least). If the Pliocene record is
indicating the opposite of what current models
are predicting, it may be offering us a valuable
clue...
The suggested reasons also include the comment
that the lack of land ice at high northern
latitudes might be a strong contributing cause -
which would make it a no-analog situation, and
hence not fully a GCM problem.
I would favor leaving those two sentences as they were.
David
At 5:19 PM +0200 7/22/05, Eystein Jansen wrote:
>Hi,
>see enclosed some comments to the last version
>of the deep time box. I propose some deletions
>and some toning down of language. What do you
>think?
>
>Eystein
>--
>______________________________________________________________
>Eystein Jansen
>Professor/Director
>Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
>Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
>Allégaten 55
>N-5007 Bergen
>NORWAY
>e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no
>Phone:	+47-55-583491  -  Home: +47-55-910661
>Fax: 	+47-55-584330
>
>Attachment converted: Toltec:IPCC Box
>6.1_latest_EJcomm.doc (WDBN/«IC») (1BE54183)
--
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
_______________________________________________
Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list
Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu


Hi David,
thanks for the reply. I think your arguments to add some comments of explanation re Pliocene warmth  are convincing and that there is potential relevance for IPCC concerning lat. heat  transport in  a world with less land and sea ice. My concern is that I don't think the text should be interpreted to imply that the Mid Pliocene was free of Arctic sea ice and Greenland was ice free. There is evidence from the recent IODP Central Arctic Drilling (have to check what ref. to use) of sea ice cover through the Pliocene. I have publishet on IRD evidence for a Greenland ice sheet of some sort. Concerning THC, N Atlantic data indicate strong presence of NADW akin to now, but we cannot constrain overturning rate. Both Nordic Seas an Arctic Ocean was poorly ventilated and deep water formation to feed overflows was shallover, perhaps due to higher temperature?
Instead of deleting the section I proposed, I suggest changing it as follows: After (Rind and Chadler 1991) add , "for which available proxy data are inconclusive", and
Instead of writing "absence of land ice", write " reduced extent of land and sea ice". I will find the best refs for this on Monday.
Cheers
Eystein
_______________________________________________
Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list
Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu


Hi all, there is another reason why I should not be formally listed as
an LA - it is my understanding that IPCC contributors have to be a
little careful about getting involved in political matters that could be
used to impugn the integrity of the process - well I am starting to do
just that, with the attached commen in Eos, plus some radio interviews
where I have been somewhat pointed in my thoughts.
I suppose its still ok to be a reviewer, but even then you might keep
these comments in mind, tom
>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Crowley1.EOS.2005.pdf"


Hi Keith and all, (please everyone have a look at point (4))
I think section 6.5 is in remarkably good shape (certainly compared to my own..).
There are some comments from me:
(1) About the new proxy reconstructions, the section says: "Most of these are shown..." in
the Figure. This immediately raises the question: why not all? Which one is not shown? This
section will be scrutinised with great suspicion by some people, so we need to be careful.
Can you clarify which one you left out, and why? Or can we just write: "These are shown..."
That would be much nicer.
(2) Several times you say "simply scaled" - would "scaled" do as well? The "simply" in this
context sounds a bit like we criticise that.
(3) Is "predictand" a word that everybody knows? I'd never seen it before.
(4) Now here is my biggest question, that I think we need to discuss in the whole group.
Figure 6.5.2-1 shows simulations of the past millennium, relative to 1500-1899 means. Is
this really the best reference period?
Contra: it differs from how we show the data reconstructions, i.e., relative to 1961-1990.
Everyone knows what that climate actually was, since there are good instrumental data for
1961-1990, so that it makes sense to look at changes relative to that period. Nobody knows
what the real 1500-1899 mean was, so this is a fictitious baseline.
Pro: it gets rid of "end effects", i.e. model initialisation problems at the beginning (as
in Von Storch 04), and different anthropogenic forcings used at the end (e.g. some ignore
aerosols); the simulations look closer together in this way (right?)
I have not formed a clear opinion on what is best.
(5) Also on the figures: I like the grey bands, but here's a suggestion for improvement:
instead of leaving the core region between those two bands white, I think they should also
be shaded - either the same grey, or a darker shade of grey. This makes it more clear that
we are talking about one, wide uncertainty band here, not about two seperate things. It had
me confused at first when I saw it, even though I was there when we discussed this in
Beijing.
Final point: we need to keep an eye on developments concerning the model tests of the proxy
method, there seem to be several important things in the pipeline there.
Cheers, Stefan
--
To reach me directly please use: [1]rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de
(My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.)
Stefan Rahmstorf
[2]www.ozean-klima.de
[3]www.realclimate.org
References
1. mailto:rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de
2.
3.


Dear Keith, Peck and Eystein,
as you'll have seen from Tom C's replies to my fairly direct requests for the
data that went into his MWP
figure, he seems somehow reluctant to send it to me and prefers me to find it
myself (including
spending a week re-assembling a Mongolian composite).  I have no time to do
this, so have instead
reverted to using the very similar data that we already had.  I'm sure it's so
similar that it tells the same
story.
So, the attached file is my latest attempt at the MWP figure.  It shows 8
local/regional proxy series,
normalised over a common period after filtering to the 20-year and longer time
scale.  It also shows a
composite mean, and no temperature scale.  The period covered is 850 to 1350.
What do you think?  Hopefully it is what you want.
I've started on the SH figure, having received data from Ricardo and borehole
series for SH, S. Africa and
Australia from Jason/Henry.  I need to sort out Tasmania / New Zealand
instrumental data - Ed has this,
though I could extract appropriate boxes from the Jone et al. gridded data set
if necessary.
I'll include these series:
S American trees*2 plus instrumental T overlaid
S African and Australian boreholes (must also overlay instrumental T to
explain why values are all
negative - due to early sampling prior to strongest warmng)
Tasmanian and New Zealand trees*2 plus instrumental T)
It may be Friday by the time I get this one done.
Cheers
Tim
Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\ipccar4_mwpbox.pdf"