A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts
Creators
- Sognnaes, Ida1
- Gambhir, Ajay2
- van de Ven, Dirk-Jan3
- Nikas, Alexandros4
- Anger-Kraavi, Annela5
- Bui, Ha6
- Campagnolo, Lorenza7
- Delpiazzo, Elisa7
- Doukas, Haris4
- Giarola, Sara8
- Grant, Neil2
- Hawkes, Adam8
- Köberle, Alexandre C.2
- Kolpakov, Andrey9
- Mittal, Shivika2
- Moreno, Jorge3
- Perdana, Sigit10
- Rogelj, Joeri11
- Vielle, Marc10
- Peter, Glen P.1
- 1. CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
- 2. Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
- 3. Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Leioa, Spain
- 4. Energy Policy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- 5. Climate Change Policy Group, Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- 6. Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK
- 7. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Venice, Italy & Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca'Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy & Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Venice, Italy
- 8. Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
- 9. Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
- 10. École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
- 11. Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Description
Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030. Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3 °C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C. We furthermore highlight key modelling choices inherent to projecting where emissions are headed. First, emissions are more sensitive to the choice of integrated assessment model than to the assumed mitigation effort, highlighting the importance of heterogeneous model intercomparisons. Differences across models reflect diversity in baseline assumptions and impacts of near-term mitigation efforts. Second, the common practice of using economy-wide carbon prices to represent policy exaggerates carbon capture and storage use compared with explicitly modelling policies.
Files
Sognnaes_et_al_2021_NCC.pdf
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Additional details
Related works
- Is supplemented by
- Dataset: 10.5281/zenodo.5562199 (DOI)