C-TSEMM – Cattle TSE Monitoring Model

The Cattle TSE Monitoring Model (C-TSEMM), developed for EFSA by a contractor, allows evaluating different bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) monitoring regimes (implemented or hypothetical) in cattle and the ability of those schemes to detect either the re-emergence of BSE or the emergence of a new transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) disease in cattle, by estimating the trend of the current BSE epidemic within European Union Member States.

C-TSEMM was developed as a transparent and flexible software package in R, supported by a user-friendly interface in VBA for users to input parameter estimates and alternative monitoring scenarios.

The model has been applied to assess the minimum sample size to test in different BSE monitoring scenarios in certain Member States, and to assess the added value of that sample size for monitoring the trend of BSE and the emergence of a hypothetical new type of cattle TSE.

C-TSEMM includes BSE data for two example countries (country MM, representing a medium-sized country with TSE testing started in 2003 and some BSE positive findings; country LL, representing a large-sized country with TSE testing started in 2002 and a high number of BSE positive findings). C-TSEMM can be run with those fictitious data, or after inclusion of real data for any country of interest by the user.