Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: A comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity
Creators
- Giarola, Sara1
- Mittal, Shivika1
- Vielle, Marc2
- Perdana, Sigit2
- Campagnolo, Lorenza3
- Delpiazzo, Elisa3
- Bui, Ha4
- Anger-Kraavi, Annela4
- Koplakov, Andrey5
- Sognnaes, Ida6
- Peters, Glen6
- Hawkes, Adam1
- Köberle, Alexandre1
- Grant, Neil1
- Gambhir, Ajay1
- Nikas, Alexandros7
- Doukas, Haris7
- Moreno, Jorge8
- van de Ven, Dirk-Jan8
- 1. Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, UK
- 2. École Polytechnique F'ed'erale de Lausanne, Switzerland
- 3. Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy & Cà Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy & European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice, Italy
- 4. Climate Change Policy Group, CAS, Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, UK
- 5. Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
- 6. Center for International Climate Research, Norway
- 7. National Technical University of Athens, Greece
- 8. Basque Centre for Climate Change, Bilbao, Spain
Description
Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community.
This paper proposes a framework for a harmonisation methodology with the definition of indispensable steps and recommendations to overcome stumbling blocks in order to reduce the variance of the outcomes which depends on controllable modelling assumptions. The harmonisation approach of the PARIS REINFORCE project is presented here to layout such a framework. A decomposition analysis of the harmonisation process is shown through 6 integrated assessment models (GCAM, ICES-XPS, MUSE, E3ME, GEMINI-E3, and TIAM). Results prove the potentials of the proposed framework to reduce the model variance and present a powerful diagnostic tool to feedback on the quality of the harmonisation itself.
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Giarola_et_al_2021_STE.pdf
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Related works
- Is supplemented by
- Dataset: 10.5281/zenodo.5659438 (DOI)