In [19]: runfile('D:/Saulo/UnB/2020-03_Modeling_and_forecasting_Covid-19_Brazil/source/Modeling_and_forecasting_Covid-19_Brazil.py', wdir='D:/Saulo/UnB/2020-03_Modeling_and_forecasting_Covid-19_Brazil/source')
Data directory: D:\Saulo\UnB\2020-03_Modeling_and_forecasting_Covid-19_Brazil\data\
Output directory: D:\Saulo\UnB\2020-03_Modeling_and_forecasting_Covid-19_Brazil\output\rand-7_fscale-2.0\
Last date: 2020-03-30
date cases_new cases deaths_new ... I R N D
0 2020-02-26 1 1 0 ... 1.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
1 2020-02-27 0 1 0 ... 1.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
2 2020-02-28 0 1 0 ... 1.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
3 2020-02-29 1 2 0 ... 2.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
4 2020-03-01 0 2 0 ... 2.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
5 2020-03-02 0 2 0 ... 2.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
6 2020-03-03 0 2 0 ... 2.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
7 2020-03-04 1 3 0 ... 3.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
8 2020-03-05 4 7 0 ... 7.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
9 2020-03-06 6 13 0 ... 13.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
10 2020-03-07 6 19 0 ... 19.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
11 2020-03-08 6 25 0 ... 25.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
12 2020-03-09 0 25 0 ... 25.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
13 2020-03-10 9 34 0 ... 34.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
14 2020-03-11 18 52 0 ... 52.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
15 2020-03-12 25 77 0 ... 77.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
16 2020-03-13 21 98 0 ... 98.0 0.0 210147125.0 0
17 2020-03-14 23 121 0 ... 120.0 1.0 210147124.0 0
18 2020-03-15 79 200 0 ... 199.0 1.0 210147124.0 0
19 2020-03-16 34 234 0 ... 233.0 1.0 210147124.0 0
20 2020-03-17 57 291 1 ... 290.0 1.0 210147123.0 1
21 2020-03-18 137 428 3 ... 426.0 2.0 210147119.0 4
22 2020-03-19 193 621 2 ... 615.0 6.0 210147113.0 6
23 2020-03-20 283 904 5 ... 892.0 12.0 210147102.0 11
24 2020-03-21 224 1128 7 ... 1110.0 18.0 210147089.0 18
25 2020-03-22 418 1546 7 ... 1522.0 24.0 210147076.0 25
26 2020-03-23 345 1891 9 ... 1867.0 24.0 210147067.0 34
27 2020-03-24 310 2201 12 ... 2168.0 33.0 210147046.0 46
28 2020-03-25 232 2433 11 ... 2382.0 51.0 210147017.0 57
29 2020-03-26 482 2915 20 ... 2839.0 76.0 210146972.0 77
30 2020-03-27 502 3417 15 ... 3320.0 97.0 210146936.0 92
31 2020-03-28 486 3903 22 ... 3783.0 120.0 210146891.0 114
32 2020-03-29 353 4256 22 ... 4057.0 199.0 210146790.0 136
33 2020-03-30 323 4579 23 ... 4346.0 233.0 210146733.0 159
[34 rows x 13 columns]
date cases cases_diff
0 2020-02-26 1 0.0
1 2020-02-27 1 0.0
2 2020-02-28 1 0.0
3 2020-02-29 2 1.0
4 2020-03-01 2 0.0
5 2020-03-02 2 0.0
6 2020-03-03 2 0.0
7 2020-03-04 3 1.0
8 2020-03-05 7 4.0
9 2020-03-06 13 6.0
10 2020-03-07 19 6.0
11 2020-03-08 25 6.0
12 2020-03-09 25 0.0
13 2020-03-10 34 9.0
14 2020-03-11 52 18.0
15 2020-03-12 77 25.0
16 2020-03-13 98 21.0
17 2020-03-14 121 23.0
18 2020-03-15 200 79.0
19 2020-03-16 234 34.0
20 2020-03-17 291 57.0
21 2020-03-18 428 137.0
22 2020-03-19 621 193.0
23 2020-03-20 904 283.0
24 2020-03-21 1128 224.0
25 2020-03-22 1546 418.0
26 2020-03-23 1891 345.0
27 2020-03-24 2201 310.0
28 2020-03-25 2433 232.0
29 2020-03-26 2915 482.0
30 2020-03-27 3417 502.0
31 2020-03-28 3903 486.0
32 2020-03-29 4256 353.0
33 2020-03-30 4579 323.0
2020-03-22
SIR without social distance (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683}
2020-03-26
SIR without social distance (cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta': 0.5346998105278759, 'gamma': 0.26234277439144643, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.02648860942309169}
2020-03-30
SIR without social distance (cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta': 0.5351591292323615, 'gamma': 0.26647584674950703, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029586872445837763}
last_date = 2020-03-30
value
q 0.025 0.05 0.5 0.95 0.975 mean
param
R0 1.814259 1.817128 4.016093 4.981334 4.988652 2.842135
beta 0.369555 0.369691 0.397210 0.601425 0.604346 0.441717
gamma 0.071430 0.071430 0.101928 0.327279 0.329529 0.150876
rho 0.010025 0.010053 0.030783 0.043472 0.048504 0.029218
**************************************************
f_scale = 2.0
--------------------------------------------------
+---------------+----------+----------+-----------+
| random_seed | beta | gamma | rho |
|---------------+----------+----------+-----------|
| 7 | 0.441717 | 0.150876 | 0.0292182 |
| 511 | 0.432978 | 0.141411 | 0.0301936 |
| 1024 | 0.428903 | 0.136487 | 0.032915 |
| 90787 | 0.465757 | 0.176799 | 0.0273557 |
| 407850 | 0.449369 | 0.159107 | 0.029013 |
| 1905090 | 0.46357 | 0.174802 | 0.0277514 |
+---------------+----------+----------+-----------+
random_seed beta gamma rho gamm_dist
4 7 0.441717 0.150876 0.029218 0.004115
2 407850 0.449369 0.159107 0.029013 0.004115
SIR with social distance (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'is_policy_effective_fn': <function <lambda> at 0x00000259E85EF7B8>, 'psi': 0.8182510421059718}
SIR with social distance (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'is_policy_effective_fn': <function <lambda> at 0x00000259E83277B8>, 'psi': 0.7471573528745428}
SIR with social distance (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'is_policy_effective_fn': <function <lambda> at 0x000002598E3388C8>, 'psi': 0.6639660472076377}
SIR with social distance (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'is_policy_effective_fn': <function <lambda> at 0x00000259E85EF620>, 'psi': 0.6526629238370094}
SIR with social distance (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'is_policy_effective_fn': <function <lambda> at 0x00000259E85EF6A8>, 'psi': 0.6464771227188051}
SIR with social distance (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'is_policy_effective_fn': <function <lambda> at 0x00000259E5989F28>, 'psi': 0.6421881858112877}
SIR with social distance (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'is_policy_effective_fn': <function <lambda> at 0x00000259FDDDBC80>, 'psi': 0.6356028480792457}
SIR with social distance (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'is_policy_effective_fn': <function <lambda> at 0x00000259FDDDBB70>, 'psi': 0.6254756989887387}
+-----+------------+----------+---------+
| t | date | psi | R |
|-----+------------+----------+---------|
| 26 | 2020-03-23 | 0.818251 | 2.32558 |
| 27 | 2020-03-24 | 0.747157 | 2.12352 |
| 28 | 2020-03-25 | 0.663966 | 1.88708 |
| 29 | 2020-03-26 | 0.652663 | 1.85496 |
| 30 | 2020-03-27 | 0.646477 | 1.83738 |
| 31 | 2020-03-28 | 0.642188 | 1.82519 |
| 32 | 2020-03-29 | 0.635603 | 1.80647 |
| 33 | 2020-03-30 | 0.625476 | 1.77769 |
+-----+------------+----------+---------+
policy_end_date = 2020-05-22
policy_end_date = 2020-06-22
+---------------+------------+---------+
| description | peak at | %peak |
|---------------+------------+---------|
| I (Black) | 2020-05-07 | 38.5301 |
| II (Blue) | 2020-06-17 | 21.4865 |
| III (Orange) | 2020-06-06 | 37.7786 |
| IV (Red) | 2020-06-17 | 21.4865 |
+---------------+------------+---------+
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.05 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218959393, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09323234156561096, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5846792933405439, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.05 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218959393, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09323234156561096, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5846792933405439, 'psi': 0.6404710844420113}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.05 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218959393, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09323234156561096, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5846792933405439, 'psi': 0.6106906712531177}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.05 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218959393, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09323234156561096, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5846792933405439, 'psi': 0.5711118875516605}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.05 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218959393, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09323234156561096, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5846792933405439, 'psi': 0.568102376602654}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.05 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218959393, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09323234156561096, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5846792933405439, 'psi': 0.5633279145802537}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.05 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218959393, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09323234156561096, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5846792933405439, 'psi': 0.5608680174228345}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.05 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218959393, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09323234156561096, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5846792933405439, 'psi': 0.550221000277057}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.05 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218959393, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09323234156561096, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5846792933405439, 'psi': 0.53552548390288}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.1 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218308665, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09744014537342342, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5534736135551138, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.1 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218308665, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09744014537342342, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5534736135551138, 'psi': 0.6603044979887294}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.1 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218308665, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09744014537342342, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5534736135551138, 'psi': 0.6295160870840986}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.1 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218308665, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09744014537342342, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5534736135551138, 'psi': 0.5821141911515083}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.1 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218308665, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09744014537342342, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5534736135551138, 'psi': 0.5769206726343995}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.1 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218308665, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09744014537342342, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5534736135551138, 'psi': 0.5641457444738817}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.1 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218308665, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09744014537342342, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5534736135551138, 'psi': 0.5542782662535403}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.1 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218308665, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09744014537342342, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5534736135551138, 'psi': 0.54320608493402}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.1 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218308665, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.09744014537342342, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5534736135551138, 'psi': 0.5378607628762976}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.2 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218855809, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10515790069087713, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5112610766196438, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.2 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218855809, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10515790069087713, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5112610766196438, 'psi': 0.7209859720562806}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.2 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218855809, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10515790069087713, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5112610766196438, 'psi': 0.6738430366592573}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.2 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218855809, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10515790069087713, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5112610766196438, 'psi': 0.6235146009028614}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.2 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218855809, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10515790069087713, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5112610766196438, 'psi': 0.6055869292085047}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.2 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218855809, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10515790069087713, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5112610766196438, 'psi': 0.5931957871184405}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.2 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218855809, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10515790069087713, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5112610766196438, 'psi': 0.5897121577740502}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.2 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218855809, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10515790069087713, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5112610766196438, 'psi': 0.5811938620161231}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.2 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218855809, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10515790069087713, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.5112610766196438, 'psi': 0.5681709298157778}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.25 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218553609, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10635537897903596, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4874079606893349, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.25 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218553609, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10635537897903596, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4874079606893349, 'psi': 0.7004985041583212}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.25 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218553609, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10635537897903596, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4874079606893349, 'psi': 0.6588633900072858}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.25 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218553609, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10635537897903596, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4874079606893349, 'psi': 0.6208736410858067}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.25 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218553609, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10635537897903596, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4874079606893349, 'psi': 0.5978767870201923}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.25 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218553609, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10635537897903596, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4874079606893349, 'psi': 0.5841268952506489}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.25 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218553609, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10635537897903596, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4874079606893349, 'psi': 0.5731590075713414}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.25 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218553609, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10635537897903596, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4874079606893349, 'psi': 0.5714627096142757}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.25 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218553609, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10635537897903596, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4874079606893349, 'psi': 0.5770106994527252}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.3 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219328055, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10877438451101587, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4696996889187338, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.3 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219328055, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10877438451101587, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4696996889187338, 'psi': 0.7200057539186767}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.3 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219328055, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10877438451101587, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4696996889187338, 'psi': 0.6741336171693733}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.3 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219328055, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10877438451101587, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4696996889187338, 'psi': 0.6222090261135746}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.3 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219328055, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10877438451101587, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4696996889187338, 'psi': 0.6054344248127106}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.3 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219328055, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10877438451101587, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4696996889187338, 'psi': 0.5919633134026545}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.3 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219328055, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10877438451101587, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4696996889187338, 'psi': 0.5863096300505521}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.3 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219328055, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10877438451101587, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4696996889187338, 'psi': 0.5792511800894143}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.3 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219328055, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.10877438451101587, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4696996889187338, 'psi': 0.5675200653865843}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.5 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652194584105, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11435562304227773, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4083253545737884, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652194584105, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11435562304227773, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4083253545737884, 'psi': 0.7342997883806934}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652194584105, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11435562304227773, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4083253545737884, 'psi': 0.6768384455812505}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652194584105, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11435562304227773, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4083253545737884, 'psi': 0.6233019890928908}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652194584105, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11435562304227773, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4083253545737884, 'psi': 0.6073115012791246}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652194584105, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11435562304227773, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4083253545737884, 'psi': 0.5946275431463335}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652194584105, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11435562304227773, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4083253545737884, 'psi': 0.5946123519938772}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652194584105, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11435562304227773, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4083253545737884, 'psi': 0.5806179039920313}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=0.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652194584105, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11435562304227773, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.4083253545737884, 'psi': 0.5674344533242488}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=1.0 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'psi': 0.8799599808252354}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'psi': 0.7786477359252273}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'psi': 0.6891205590730355}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'psi': 0.6510923932256211}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'psi': 0.6409631693210021}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'psi': 0.6302364477141461}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'psi': 0.6190738769974882}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'psi': 0.6156457627867765}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=1.5 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218295112, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12988325200502376, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.2597342376713212, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218295112, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12988325200502376, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.2597342376713212, 'psi': 0.9117025726380646}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218295112, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12988325200502376, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.2597342376713212, 'psi': 0.8130808799657272}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218295112, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12988325200502376, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.2597342376713212, 'psi': 0.7025083242906224}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218295112, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12988325200502376, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.2597342376713212, 'psi': 0.6641945373921025}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218295112, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12988325200502376, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.2597342376713212, 'psi': 0.6535013390270378}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218295112, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12988325200502376, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.2597342376713212, 'psi': 0.6411435726039606}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218295112, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12988325200502376, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.2597342376713212, 'psi': 0.6298965046377543}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=1.5 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165218295112, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12988325200502376, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.2597342376713212, 'psi': 0.6181728345646792}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=2.0 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.42214438469772375, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11052408836783142, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.22166300232558134, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=2.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.42214438469772375, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11052408836783142, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.22166300232558134, 'psi': 0.8806891347735691}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=2.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.42214438469772375, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11052408836783142, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.22166300232558134, 'psi': 0.7783076986585009}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=2.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.42214438469772375, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11052408836783142, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.22166300232558134, 'psi': 0.6889730647844269}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=2.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.42214438469772375, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11052408836783142, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.22166300232558134, 'psi': 0.6470227031190455}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=2.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.42214438469772375, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11052408836783142, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.22166300232558134, 'psi': 0.6403815213164951}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=2.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.42214438469772375, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11052408836783142, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.22166300232558134, 'psi': 0.6254479603616561}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=2.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.42214438469772375, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11052408836783142, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.22166300232558134, 'psi': 0.6175448944060912}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=2.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.42214438469772375, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.11052408836783142, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.22166300232558134, 'psi': 0.6094303678592516}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=3.0 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165217612258, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.13483973161700172, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.1658266194064315, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=3.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165217612258, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.13483973161700172, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.1658266194064315, 'psi': 0.9581840317862578}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=3.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165217612258, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.13483973161700172, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.1658266194064315, 'psi': 0.8097930270707772}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=3.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165217612258, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.13483973161700172, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.1658266194064315, 'psi': 0.7441311772539045}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=3.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165217612258, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.13483973161700172, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.1658266194064315, 'psi': 0.6997691273615406}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=3.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165217612258, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.13483973161700172, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.1658266194064315, 'psi': 0.6850135986021489}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=3.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165217612258, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.13483973161700172, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.1658266194064315, 'psi': 0.6602366284721586}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=3.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165217612258, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.13483973161700172, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.1658266194064315, 'psi': 0.6526962976140878}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=3.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.4417165217612258, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.13483973161700172, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.1658266194064315, 'psi': 0.6454619165538656}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=4.0 (cut: 2020-03-22) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652181000615, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12903850338294634, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.12309408574323677, 'psi': nan}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=4.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-23) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652181000615, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12903850338294634, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.12309408574323677, 'psi': 0.7914308480090759}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=4.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-24) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652181000615, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12903850338294634, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.12309408574323677, 'psi': 0.7037507824780498}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=4.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-25) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652181000615, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12903850338294634, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.12309408574323677, 'psi': 0.6520499723376845}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=4.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-26) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652181000615, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12903850338294634, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.12309408574323677, 'psi': 0.635288459383939}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=4.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-27) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652181000615, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12903850338294634, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.12309408574323677, 'psi': 0.6163968918721607}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=4.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-28) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652181000615, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12903850338294634, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.12309408574323677, 'psi': 0.6041817156334814}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=4.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-29) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652181000615, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12903850338294634, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.12309408574323677, 'psi': 0.5985033776260756}
Assymptomatic/symptomatic model with social distance, p_IA0=4.0 (policy start: 2020-03-23, cut: 2020-03-30) parameters: {'beta_A': 0.44171652181000615, 'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_A': 0.12903850338294634, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'Lambda': 0, 'mu': 0, 'rho': 0.029218205515962683, 'p': 0.12309408574323677, 'psi': 0.593221389013711}
+---------------------------------------------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+----------+-----------------+-----------------+---------+
| description | p_IA0 | beta_A | 1/beta_A | gamma_A | 1/gamma_A | R_A | beta_S | 1/beta_S | gamma_S | 1/gamma_S | R_S | rho | p | R0 |
|---------------------------------------------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+----------+-----------------+-----------------+---------|
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.05 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 0.05 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.0932 ± 0.0074 | 10.7259 ± 0.6636 | 1.96771 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 1.66174 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.5847 ± 0.0263 | 3.62945 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.1 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 0.1 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.0974 ± 0.0068 | 10.2627 ± 0.5384 | 2.0242 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 1.57305 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.5535 ± 0.0245 | 3.59724 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.2 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 0.2 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.1052 ± 0.0110 | 9.5095 ± 0.7902 | 2.05295 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 1.45307 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.5113 ± 0.0391 | 3.50602 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.25 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 0.25 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.1064 ± 0.0097 | 9.4024 ± 0.6766 | 2.1289 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 1.38528 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.4874 ± 0.0341 | 3.51418 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.3 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 0.3 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.1088 ± 0.0104 | 9.1933 ± 0.7122 | 2.15347 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 1.33495 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.4697 ± 0.0366 | 3.48842 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=0.5 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 0.5 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.1144 ± 0.0111 | 8.7447 ± 0.7112 | 2.28544 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 1.16052 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.4083 ± 0.0367 | 3.44595 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=1.0 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 1 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.1260 ± 0.0138 | 7.9342 ± 0.8258 | 2.37962 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 0.912378 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.3210 ± 0.0393 | 3.29199 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=1.5 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 1.5 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.1299 ± 0.0132 | 7.6992 ± 0.7625 | 2.51755 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 0.7382 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.2597 ± 0.0326 | 3.25575 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=2.0 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 2 | 0.4221 ± 0.0203 | 2.3689 ± 0.1145 | 0.1105 ± 0.0307 | 9.0478 ± 2.6684 | 2.97284 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 0.629996 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.2217 ± 0.0215 | 3.60284 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=3.0 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 3 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.1348 ± 0.0124 | 7.4162 ± 0.6910 | 2.73264 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 0.471302 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.1658 ± 0.0211 | 3.20394 |
| Assymptomatic/symptomatic model, p_IA0=4.0 (cut: 2020-03-22) | 4 | 0.4417 ± 0.0000 | 2.2639 ± 0.0000 | 0.1290 ± 0.0104 | 7.7496 ± 0.5743 | 3.00177 | 0.4417 ± 0.0899 | 2.2639 ± 0.4134 | 0.1509 ± 0.0993 | 6.6280 ± 4.6619 | 0.34985 | 0.0292 ± 0.0133 | 0.1231 ± 0.0148 | 3.35162 |
+---------------------------------------------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+----------+-----------------+-----------------+---------+
value
q 0.025 0.05 0.5 0.95 0.975 mean
param
R0 2.593313 2.625817 3.725511 4.148486 4.152957 3.601731
RA 1.914337 1.914337 2.695899 2.695899 2.708358 2.420947
RS 0.528135 0.529868 1.250216 1.858312 1.861349 1.180784
beta_A 0.441717 0.441717 0.441717 0.441717 0.441717 0.441717
beta_S 0.369555 0.369691 0.397210 0.601425 0.604346 0.441717
gamma_A 0.113005 0.116069 0.116069 0.144522 0.144522 0.126036
gamma_S 0.071430 0.071430 0.101928 0.327279 0.329529 0.150876
p 0.291604 0.291604 0.291604 0.373662 0.373662 0.321019
rho 0.010025 0.010053 0.030783 0.043472 0.048504 0.029218
IA0 = 0.05
IA0 = 0.1
IA0 = 0.2
IA0 = 0.25
IA0 = 0.3
IA0 = 0.5
IA0 = 1.0
IA0 = 1.5
IA0 = 2.0
IA0 = 3.0
IA0 = 4.0
+-----+------------+----------+---------+
| t | date | psi | R |
|-----+------------+----------+---------|
| 26 | 2020-03-23 | 0.87996 | 2.89682 |
| 27 | 2020-03-24 | 0.778648 | 2.5633 |
| 28 | 2020-03-25 | 0.689121 | 2.26858 |
| 29 | 2020-03-26 | 0.651092 | 2.14339 |
| 30 | 2020-03-27 | 0.640963 | 2.11005 |
| 31 | 2020-03-28 | 0.630236 | 2.07473 |
| 32 | 2020-03-29 | 0.619074 | 2.03799 |
| 33 | 2020-03-30 | 0.615646 | 2.0267 |
+-----+------------+----------+---------+
+---------+----------+----------+-----------+----------+----------+------------+------------+------------+
| p_IA0 | p | 1/p-1 | p_A/p_S | peak_T | peak_S | peak_S_l | peak_S_u | new_rho |
|---------+----------+----------+-----------+----------+----------+------------+------------+------------|
| 4 | 0.123094 | 7.12387 | 88.6588 | 15.1213 | 1.62417 | 0.63501 | 3.21315 | 0.00362918 |
| 3 | 0.165827 | 5.03039 | 84.3393 | 16.5077 | 2.48549 | 1.00141 | 4.84127 | 0.00501142 |
| 2 | 0.221663 | 3.51135 | 80.4436 | 18.4629 | 3.29603 | 1.02087 | 6.66004 | 0.00625806 |
| 1.5 | 0.259734 | 2.85009 | 75.6801 | 15.5367 | 3.61302 | 1.27324 | 7.57257 | 0.00778237 |
| 1 | 0.321019 | 2.11508 | 70.0727 | 15.7496 | 4.49 | 1.44897 | 9.73684 | 0.00957675 |
| 0.5 | 0.408325 | 1.44903 | 62.785 | 14.3839 | 5.0179 | 1.47084 | 11.9963 | 0.0119088 |
| 0.3 | 0.4697 | 1.12902 | 57.3255 | 14.7075 | 5.85749 | 2.20218 | 14.356 | 0.0136558 |
| 0.25 | 0.487408 | 1.05167 | 55.753 | 15.4737 | 6.37463 | 2.39152 | 15.0553 | 0.014159 |
| 0.2 | 0.511261 | 0.955948 | 53.5694 | 14.8422 | 6.41937 | 2.34621 | 15.9373 | 0.0148578 |
| 0.1 | 0.553474 | 0.806771 | 50.3272 | 13.6827 | 6.26827 | 2.06338 | 14.6066 | 0.0158953 |
| 0.05 | 0.584679 | 0.710339 | 47.6149 | 13.7158 | 6.60391 | 2.09822 | 15.4887 | 0.0167632 |
+---------+----------+----------+-----------+----------+----------+------------+------------+------------+
I ...
{'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'rho': 0.02921820551596268, 'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'p': 0.32101857999818484}
psi = None
policy_date_i = None
policy_date_f = None
II ...
{'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'rho': 0.02921820551596268, 'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'transmition_factor_fn': <function get_transmition_factor_fn.<locals>.<lambda> at 0x00000259E8327268>}
psi = 0.6156457627867765
policy_date_i = 2020-03-22
policy_date_f = None
III ...
{'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'rho': 0.02921820551596268, 'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'transmition_factor_fn': <function get_transmition_factor_fn.<locals>.<lambda> at 0x00000259E82472F0>}
psi = 0.6156457627867765
policy_date_i = 2020-03-22
policy_date_f = 2020-05-21
IV ...
{'beta_S': 0.4417165219803332, 'gamma_S': 0.1508761351358541, 'rho': 0.02921820551596268, 'beta_A': 0.4417165219286306, 'gamma_A': 0.1260360133204632, 'p': 0.32101857999818484, 'transmition_factor_fn': <function get_transmition_factor_fn.<locals>.<lambda> at 0x000002598E338950>}
psi = 0.6156457627867765
policy_date_i = 2020-03-22
policy_date_f = 2020-06-16
+---------------+-------------------------+-----------------------+------------------+----------------+
| description | peak at (symptomatic) | %peak (symptomatic) | peak at (both) | %peak (both) |
|---------------+-------------------------+-----------------------+------------------+----------------|
| I (Black) | 2020-04-30 | 9.77979 | 2020-04-30 | 33.3098 |
| II (Blue) | 2020-06-10 | 4.49 | 2020-06-10 | 15.7496 |
| III (Orange) | 2020-06-03 | 9.21126 | 2020-06-03 | 31.4447 |
| IV (Red) | 2020-06-10 | 4.49 | 2020-06-10 | 15.7496 |
+---------------+-------------------------+-----------------------+------------------+----------------+
The end!
In [20]: