[0.8517, 0.0233, 0.0055, 0.0026], # up, +alpha
[0.0213, 0.8638, 0.0025, 0.0054], # up, -alpha
[0.0000, 0.0019, 0.0112, 0.8695], # down, +alpha
[0.0026, 0.0001, 0.8667, 0.0147]  # down, -alpha