@book{IPBES2016, address = {Bonn, Germany}, title = {Methodological Assessment of Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.}, publisher = {{Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services}}, editor = {Ferrier, S and Ninan, K N and Leadley, P and Alkemade, R and Acosta, L A and Ak{\c c}akaya, H R and Brotons, L and Cheung, W W L and Christensen, V and Harhash, K A and {Kabubo-Mariara}, J and Lundquist, C and Obersteiner, M and Pereira, H and Peterson, G and {Pichs-Madruga}, R and Ravindranath, N and Rondinini, C and Wintle, B A}, year = {2016}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper} } @incollection{Portner2014, title = {Ocean Systems}, booktitle = {Climate {{Change}} 2014: {{Impacts}}, {{Adaptation}}, and {{Vulnerability}}. {{Part A}}: {{Global}} and {{Sectoral Aspects}}. {{Contribution}} of {{Working Group II}} to the {{Fifth Assessment Report}} of the {{Intergovernmental Panel}} on {{Climate Change}}}, publisher = {{Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA}}, author = {P\"ortner, H.-O and Karl, D.M. and Boyd, P.W. and Cheung, W.W.L and {Lluch-Cota}, S.E. and Nojiri, Y. and Schmidt, D.N. and Zavialov, P.O.}, editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.}, year = {2014}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {411-484} } @article{Kremer2012, title = {Long-Distance Gene Flow and Adaptation of Forest Trees to Rapid Climate Change}, volume = {15}, issn = {1461023X}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01746.x}, abstract = {Ecology Letters (2012) ABSTRACT: Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change.}, number = {4}, journal = {Ecology Letters}, author = {Kremer, Antoine and Ronce, Oph\'elie and {Robledo-Arnuncio}, Juan J. and Guillaume, Fr\'ed\'eric and Bohrer, Gil and Nathan, Ran and Bridle, Jon R. and Gomulkiewicz, Richard and Klein, Etienne K. and Ritland, Kermit and Kuparinen, Anna and Gerber, Sophie and Schueler, Silvio}, year = {2012}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {378-392}, pmid = {22372546} } @article{Poloczanska2016, title = {Responses of {{Marine Organisms}} to {{Climate Change}} across {{Oceans}}}, volume = {3}, number = {28}, journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science}, author = {Poloczanska, Elvira S and Burrows, Michael T and Brown, Christopher J and Garc$\backslash$'$\backslash$ia Molinos, Jorge and Halpern, Benjamin S and {Hoegh-Guldberg}, Ove and Kappel, Carrie V and Moore, Pippa J and Richardson, Anthony J and Schoeman, David S and Sydeman, William J}, month = may, year = {2016}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {515} } @article{Kharouba2013, archivePrefix = {arXiv}, eprinttype = {arxiv}, eprint = {0811.2183}, title = {Do Ecological Differences between Taxonomic Groups Influence the Relationship between Species' Distributions and Climate? {{A}} Global Meta-Analysis Using Species Distribution Models}, volume = {36}, issn = {09067590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07683.x}, abstract = {Understanding whether and how ecological traits affect species' geographic distributions is a fundamental issue that bridges ecology and biogeography. While climate is thought to be the major determinant of species' distributions, there is considerable variation in the strength of species' climate\textendash{}distribution relationships. One potential explanation is that species with relatively low dispersal ability cannot reach all geographic areas where climatic conditions are suitable. We tested the hypothesis that species from different taxonomic groups varied in their climate\textendash{}distribution relationships because of differences in life history strategies, in particular dispersal ability. We conducted a meta-analysis by combining the discrimination ability (AUC values) from 4317 species distribution models (SDMs) using fit as an indication of the strength of the species' climate\textendash{}distribution relationship. We found significant differences in the strength of species' climate\textendash{}distribution relationships across taxonomic groups, however we did not find support for the dispersal hypothesis. Our results suggest that relevant ecological trait variation among broad taxonomic groups may be related to differences in species' climate\textendash{}distribution relationships, however which ecological traits are important remains unclear.}, number = {6}, journal = {Ecography}, author = {Kharouba, Heather M. and Mccune, Jenny L. and Thuiller, Wilfried and Huntley, Brian}, year = {2013}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {657-664}, pmid = {23347591} } @article{Kharouba2012, title = {Do Ecological Differences between Taxonomic Groups Influence the Relationship between Species' Distributions and Climate? {{A}} Global Meta-Analysis Using Species Distribution Models}, journal = {Ecography}, author = {Kharouba, H M and McCune, J L and Thuiller, W and Huntley, B}, year = {2012}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper} } @article{Philippart2011, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on {{European}} Marine Ecosystems: {{Observations}}, Expectations and Indicators}, volume = {400}, issn = {00220981}, doi = {10.1016/j.jembe.2011.02.023}, abstract = {The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000. years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.}, number = {1-2}, journal = {Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology}, author = {Philippart, C.J.M. J M and Anad\'on, R. and Danovaro, R. and Dippner, J.W. W. and Drinkwater, K.F. F. and Hawkins, S.J. J. and Oguz, T. and O'Sullivan, G. and Reid, P.C. C. and Anad??n, R. and Danovaro, R. and Dippner, J.W. W. and Drinkwater, K.F. F. and Hawkins, S.J. J. and Oguz, T. and O'Sullivan, G. and Reid, P.C. C.}, year = {2011}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {52-69} } @article{Kergoat2015, title = {Predictive {{Ecology}} in a Changing World}, volume = {52}, issn = {13652664}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2664.12482}, abstract = {1. In a rapidly changing world, ecology has the potential to move from empirical and conceptual stages to application and management issues. It is now possible to make large-scale predictions up to continental or global scales, ranging from the future distribution of biological diversity to changes in ecosystem functioning and services. With these recent developments, ecology has a historical opportunity to become a major actor in the development of a sustainable human society. With this opportunity, however, also comes an important responsibility in developing appropriate predictive models, correctly interpreting their outcomes, and communicating their limitations. There is also a danger that predictions grow faster than our understanding of ecological systems, resulting in a gap between the scientists generating the predictions and stakeholders using them (conservation biologists, environmental managers, journalists, policymakers). 2. Here we use the context provided by the current surge of ecological predictions on the future of biodiversity to clarify what prediction means, and to pinpoint the challenges that should be addressed in order to improve predictive ecological models and the way they are understood and used. 3. Synthesis and applications. Ecologists face several challenges to ensure the healthy development of an operational predictive ecological science: (i) clarity on the distinction between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (ii) developing new theories at the interface between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (iii) open data to test and validate predictions; (iv) making predictions operational and (v) developing a genuine ethics of prediction.}, number = {AUGUST}, journal = {Journal of Applied Ecology}, author = {Mouquet, Nicolas and Lagadeuc, Yvan and Devictor, Vincent and Doyen, Luc and Duputi\'e, Anne and Eveillard, Damien and Faure, Denis and Garnier, Eric and Gimenez, Olivier and Huneman, Philippe and Jabot, Franck and Jarne, Philippe and Joly, Dominique and Julliard, Romain and K\'efi, Sonia and Kergoat, Gael J. and Lavorel, Sandra and Le Gall, Line and Meslin, Laurence and Morand, Serge and Morin, Xavier and Morlon, H\'el\`ene and Pinay, Gilles and Pradel, Roger and Schurr, Frank M. and Thuiller, Wilfried and Loreau, Michel and Infectiology, Centre and M\'erieux, Christophe}, year = {2015}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {in review} } @article{Salamin2010, title = {Assessing Rapid Evolution in a Changing Environment}, volume = {25}, issn = {01695347}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2010.09.009}, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious threat to species persistence. Effective modelling of evolutionary responses to rapid climate change is therefore essential. In this review we examine recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods, techniques normally used to study adaptation over long periods, which allow them to be applied to the study of adaptation over shorter time scales. This increased applicability is largely due to the emergence of more flexible models of character evolution and the parallel development of molecular technologies that can be used to assess adaptive variation at loci scattered across the genome. The merging of phylogenetic and population genetic approaches to the study of adaptation has significant potential to advance our understanding of rapid responses to environmental change. \textcopyright{} 2010 Elsevier Ltd.}, number = {12}, journal = {Trends in Ecology and Evolution}, author = {Salamin, Nicolas and W\"uest, Rafael O. and Lavergne, S\'ebastien and Thuiller, Wilfried and Pearman, Peter B.}, year = {2010}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {692-698}, pmid = {20961648} } @article{Pimm2014, title = {The Biodiversity of Species and Their Rates of Extinction, Distribution, and Protection}, volume = {344}, issn = {0036-8075}, doi = {10.1126/science.1246752}, abstract = {Recent studies clarify where the most vulnerable species live, where and how humanity changes the planet, and how this drives extinctions. We assess key statistics about species, their distribution, and their status. Most are undescribed. Those we know best have large geographical ranges and are often common within them. Most known species have small ranges. The numbers of small-ranged species are increasing quickly, even in well-known taxa. They are geographically concentrated and are disproportionately likely to be threatened or already extinct. Current rates of extinction are about 1000 times the likely background rate of extinction. Future rates depend on many factors and are poised to increase. Although there has been rapid progress in developing protected areas, such efforts are not ecologically representative, nor do they optimally protect biodiversity.}, number = {6187}, journal = {Science}, author = {Pimm, S. L. and Jenkins, C. N. and Abell, R. and Brooks, T. M. and Gittleman, J. L. and Joppa, L. N. and Raven, P. H. and Roberts, C. M. and Sexton, J. O.}, year = {2014}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {1246752-1246752}, pmid = {24876501} } @article{Blois2013a, archivePrefix = {arXiv}, eprinttype = {arxiv}, eprint = {1011.1669}, title = {Climate Change and the Past, Present, and Future of Biotic Interactions}, volume = {341}, issn = {0036-8075}, doi = {10.1126/science.1237184}, abstract = {Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.}, number = {6145}, journal = {Science}, author = {Blois L. P.; Fitzpatrick, C. M.; Finnegan, S.;, l. J.; Zarnetske and Blois, J. L. and Zarnetske, P. L. and Fitzpatrick, M. C. and Finnegan, S.}, year = {2013}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {499-504}, pmid = {23908227} } @article{Thibert-Plante2012, title = {Mechanistic Niche Modelling: {{Combining}} Physiological and Spatial Data to Predict Species' Ranges}, volume = {12}, issn = {1461023X}, doi = {10.1890/06-1750.1}, abstract = {Colonization-competition trade-offs represent a stabilizing mechanism that is thought to maintain diversity of forest trees. If so, then early-successional species should benefit from high capacity factors that contribute to seed production and dispersal, particularly the many types of stochasticity that contribute to fecundity data. We develop a hierarchical Bayes modeling structure, and we use it to estimate fecundity schedules from the two types of data that ecologists typically collect, including seed-trap counts and observations of tree status. The posterior density is obtained using Markov-chain Monte Carlo techniques. The flexible structure yields estimates of size and covariate effects on seed production, variability associated with population heterogeneity, and interannual stochasticity (variability and serial autocorrelation), sex ratio, and dispersal. It admits the errors in data associated with the ability to accurately recognize tree status and process misspecification. We estimate year-by-year seed-production rates for all individuals in each of nine sample stands from two regions and up to I I years. A rich characterization of differences among species and relationships among individuals allows evaluation of a number of hypotheses related to masting, effective population sizes, and location and covariate effects. It demonstrates large bias in previous methods. We focus on implications for colonization-competition and a related hypothesis, the successional niche-trade-offs in the capacity to exploit high resource availability in early successional environments vs. the capacity to survive low-resource conditions late in succession. Contrary to predictions of trade-off hypotheses, we find no relationship between successional status and fecundity, dispersal, or expected arrivals at distant sites. Results suggest a mechanism for maintenance of diversity that may be more general than colonization-competition and successional niches. High variability and strong individual effects (variability within populations) generate massive stochasticity in recruitment that, when combined with "storage," may provide a stabilizing mechanism. The storage effect stabilizes diversity when species differences ensure that responses to stochasticity are not highly correlated among species. Process variability and individual effects mean that many species have the advantage at different times and places even in the absence of "deterministic" trade-offs. Not only does colonization vary among species, but also individual behavior is highly stochastic and weakly correlated among members of the-same population. Although these factors are the dominant sources of variability in data sets (substantially larger than the deterministic relationships typically examined), they have not been not included in the models that ecologists have used to evaluate mechanisms of species coexistence (e.g., even individual-based models lack random individual effects). Recognition of the mechanisms of coexistence requires not only heuristic models that capture the principal sources of stochasticity, but also data-modeling techniques that allow for their estimation.}, number = {4}, journal = {Ecology Letters}, author = {{Thibert-Plante}, Xavier and Hendry, Andrew P. and Jay, Flora and Manel, St\'ephanie and Alvarez, Nadir and Durand, Eric Y. and Thuiller, Wilfried and Holderegger, Rolf and Taberlet, Pierre and Fran{\c c}ois, Olivier and Joost, S. and Bonin, A. and Bruford, M. W. and Despr\'es, L. and Conord, C. and Erhardt, G. and Taberlet, Pierre and Metcalf, C Jessica E and Burghardt, Liana T and Koons, David N and Alvarez, Nadir and {Thiel-Egenter}, Conny and Tribsch, Andreas and Holderegger, Rolf and Manel, St\'ephanie and Sch\"onswetter, Peter and Taberlet, Pierre and Brodbeck, Sabine and Gaudeul, Myriam and Gielly, Ludovic and K\"upfer, Philippe and Mansion, Guilhem and Negrini, Riccardo and Paun, Ovidiu and Pellecchia, Marco and Rioux, Delphine and Sch\"upfer, Fanny and Van Loo, Marcela and Winkler, Manuela and Gugerli, Felix and Kearney, Michael and Porter, Warren and Calenge, Cl\'ement and Damon, G. and Bassille, M. and Loison, A. and Julien, J. and Capinha, C\'esar and {Pateiro-L\'opez}, Beatriz and Falcucci, A. and Maiorano, Luigi and Tempio, G. and Boitani, L. and Ciucci, P. and Manel, St\'ephanie and Gugerli, Felix and Thuiller, Wilfried and Alvarez, Nadir and Legendre, Pierre and Holderegger, Rolf and Gielly, Ludovic and Taberlet, Pierre and Albert, C\'ecile and Ara\'ujo, Miguel B. and Berry, Pam M. and Cabeza, Mar and Guisan, Antoine and Hickler, Thomas and Midgley, Guy F. and Paterson, James and Schurr, Frank M. and Sykes, Martin T. and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and a. Banta, Joshua and Ehrenreich, Ian M. and Gerard, Silvia and Chou, Lucy and Wilczek, Amity and Schmitt, Johanna and Kover, Paula X. and Purugganan, Michael D. and Young, Jin Chun and Collyer, Michael L. and a. Moloney, Kirk and Nason, John D. and Clark, James S. and Lewis, Mark and Mclachlan, Jason S and Hillerislambers, Janneke and a Wiens, John and Stralberg, Diana and Jongsomjit, Dennis and a Howell, Christine and a Snyder, Mark and Clark, James S. and LaDeau, Shannon and Ibanez, Ines and Al., Wiens Et and Esp\'indola, Anah\'i and Pellissier, Lo\"ic and Maiorano, Luigi and Hordijk, Wim and Guisan, Antoine and Alvarez, Nadir and Valladares, Fernando and Matesanz, Silvia and Araujo, Miguel B. and Balaguer, Luis and {Benito-Garzon}, Marta and Cornwell, William K and Gianoli, Ernesto and Guilhaumon, F and {van Kleunen}, M and Naya, D and Nicotra, a B and Poorter, H and Zavala, Ma}, year = {2012}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {819-828}, pmid = {22515791} } @article{Moritz2013, archivePrefix = {arXiv}, eprinttype = {arxiv}, eprint = {cs/9605103}, title = {The Future of Species under Climate Change: Resilience or Decline?}, volume = {341}, issn = {1095-9203}, doi = {10.1126/science.1237190}, abstract = {As climates change across already stressed ecosystems, there is no doubt that species will be affected, but to what extent and which will be most vulnerable remain uncertain. The fossil record suggests that most species persisted through past climate change, whereas forecasts of future impacts predict large-scale range reduction and extinction. Many species have altered range limits and phenotypes through 20th-century climate change, but responses are highly variable. The proximate causes of species decline relative to resilience remain largely obscure; however, recent examples of climate-associated species decline can help guide current management in parallel with ongoing research.}, number = {6145}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, author = {Moritz, Craig and Agudo, Rosa}, year = {2013}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {504-8}, pmid = {23908228} } @book{WWF2016, address = {Gland, Switzerland}, title = {Living {{Planet Report}} 2016}, publisher = {{WWW International}}, author = {{WWF}}, year = {2016}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, note = {Series Title: Risk and resilience in a new era.} } @article{Beniston2017, title = {The {{European}} Mountain Cryosphere: {{A}} Review of Past, Current and Future Issues}, doi = {10.5194/tc-2016-290}, journal = {The Cryosphere Discussions}, author = {Beniston, Martin and Farinotti, Daniel and Stoffel, Markus and Andreassen, Liss M and Coppola, Erika and Eckert, Nicolas and Fantini, Adriano and Giacona, Florie and Hauck, Christian and Huss, Matthias and Huwald, Hendrik and Lehning, Michael and {L\'opez-Moreno}, Juan-Ignacio and Magnusson, Jan and Marty, Christoph and {Moran-Tej\'eda}, Enrique and Morin, Samuel and Naaim, Mohammed and Provenzale, Antonello and Rabatel, Antoine and Six, Delphine and St\"otter, Johann and Strasser, Ulrich and Terzago, Silvia and Vincent, Christian}, year = {2017}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {1-60} } @article{Beniston2014a, title = {Assessing the Impacts of Climatic Change on Mountain Water Resources}, volume = {493}, issn = {18791026}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.11.122}, abstract = {As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommodate intense and rapid changes to their resource base. It is thus essential to assess the impacts of a changing climate, focusing on the quantity of water originating in mountain regions, particularly where snow and ice melt represent a large streamflow component as well as a local resource in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, or irrigation. Increasing evidence of glacier retreat, permafrost degradation and reduced mountain snowpack has been observed in many regions, thereby suggesting that climate change may seriously affect streamflow regimes. These changes could in turn threaten the availability of water resources for many environmental and economic systems, and exacerbate a range of natural hazards that would compound these impacts. As a consequence, socio-economic structures of downstream living populations would be also impacted, calling for better preparedness and strategies to avoid conflicts of interest between water-dependent economic actors. This paper is thus an introduction to the Special Issue of this journal dedicated to the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU-FP7) project ACQWA (. Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of WAter), a major European network of scientists that was coordinated by the University of Geneva from 2008 to 2014. The goal of ACQWA has been to address a number of these issues and propose a range of solutions for adaptation to change and to help improve water governance in regions where quantity, seasonality, and perhaps quality of water may substantially change in coming decades.}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, author = {Beniston, Martin and Stoffel, Markus}, month = sep, year = {2014}, keywords = {Done,RootReviewPaper}, pages = {1129-1137}, pmid = {24360916} } @article{Lavergne2010, title = {Biodiversity and {{Climate Change}}: {{Integrating Evolutionary}} and {{Ecological Responses}} of {{Species}} and {{Communities}}}, volume = {41}, issn = {1543-592X}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102209-144628}, abstract = {Today's scientists are facing the enormous challenge of predicting how climate change will affect species distributions and species assemblages. To do so, ecologists are widely using phenomenological models of species distributions that mainly rely on the concept of species niche and generally ignore species' demography, species' adaptive potential, and biotic interactions. This review examines the potential role of the emerging synthetic discipline of evolutionary community ecology in improving our understanding of how climate change will alter future distribution of biodiversity. We review theoretical and empirical advances about the role of niche evolution, interspecific interactions, and their interplay in altering species geographic ranges and community assembly. We discuss potential ways to integrate complex feedbacks between ecology and evolution in ecological forecasting. We also point at a number of caveats in our understanding of the eco-evolutionary consequences of climate change and highlight ...}, number = {1}, journal = {Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics}, author = {Lavergne, S\'ebastien and Mouquet, Nicolas and Thuiller, Wilfried and Ronce, Oph\'elie}, year = {2010}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {321-350} } @article{Warren2011a, title = {Increasing Impacts of Climate Change upon Ecosystems with Increasing Global Mean Temperature Rise}, volume = {106}, issn = {01650009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-010-9923-5}, abstract = {In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean ($\Delta$T g ). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as $\Delta$T g reaches and exceeds 2$^\circ$C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Compliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) requires that greenhouse gas concentrations be stabilized within a time frame ``sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change''. Unless $\Delta$T g is constrained to below 2$^\circ$C at most, results here imply that it will be difficult to achieve compliance. This underscores the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions by accelerating mitigation efforts and by protecting existing ecosystems from greenhouse-gas producing land use change processes such as deforestation.}, number = {2}, journal = {Climatic Change}, author = {Warren, Rachel and Price, Jeff and Fischlin, Andreas and {de la Nava Santos}, Santiago and Midgley, Guy}, month = may, year = {2011}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {141-177} } @incollection{Hoegh-Guldberg2014, title = {The {{Ocean}}}, booktitle = {Climate {{Change}} 2014: {{Impacts}}, {{Adaptation}}, and {{Vulnerability}}. {{Part B}}: {{Regional Aspects}}. {{Contribution}} of {{Working Group II}} to the {{Fifth Assessment Report}} of the {{Intergovernmental Panel}} on {{Climate Change}} (Bll 1655\textendash{}1731)}, publisher = {{Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.}}, author = {{Hoegh-Guldberg}, O. and Cai, R. and Poloczanska, E. and Brewer, P and Sundby, S. and Himi, K. and Jung, S.}, year = {2014}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper} } @article{Pauls2013, title = {The Impact of Global Climate Change on Genetic Diversity within Populations and Species}, volume = {22}, issn = {0962-1083}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12152}, abstract = {Genetic diversity provides the basic substrate for evolution, yet few studies assess the impacts of global climate change (GCC) on intraspecific genetic variation. In this review, we highlight the importance of incorporating neutral and non-neutral genetic diversity when assessing the impacts of GCC, for example, in studies that aim to predict the future distribution and fate of a species or ecological community. Specifically, we address the following questions: Why study the effects of GCC on intraspecific genetic diversity? How does GCC affect genetic diversity? How is the effect of GCC on genetic diversity currently studied? Where is potential for future research? For each of these questions, we provide a general background and highlight case studies across the animal, plant and microbial kingdoms. We further discuss how cryptic diversity can affect GCC assessments, how genetic diversity can be integrated into studies that aim to predict species' responses on GCC and how conservation efforts related to GCC can incorporate and profit from inclusion of genetic diversity assessments. We argue that studying the fate of intraspecifc genetic diversity is an indispensable and logical venture if we are to fully understand the consequences of GCC on biodiversity on all levels.}, number = {4}, journal = {Molecular Ecology}, author = {Pauls, Steffen U. and Nowak, Carsten and Balint, M and Pfenninger, Markus and B??lint, Mikl??s and Pfenninger, Markus}, year = {2013}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {925-946}, pmid = {23279006} } @article{Radic2014, archivePrefix = {arXiv}, eprinttype = {arxiv}, eprint = {Radic2013}, title = {Regional and Global Projections of Twenty-First Century Glacier Mass Changes in Response to Climate Scenarios from Global Climate Models}, volume = {42}, issn = {09307575}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7}, abstract = {A large component of present-day sea-level rise is due to the melt of glaciers other than the ice sheets. Recent projections of their contribution to global sea-level rise for the twenty-first century range between 70 and 180 mm, but bear significant uncertainty due to poor gla-cier inventory and lack of hypsometric data. Here, we aim to update the projections and improve quantification of their uncertainties by using a recently released global inventory containing outlines of almost every glacier in the world. We model volume change for each glacier in response to transient spatially-differentiated temperature and precipitation projections from 14 global climate models with two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergov-ernmental Panel on Climate Change. The multi-model mean suggests sea-level rise of 155 $\pm$ 41 mm (RCP4.5) and 216 $\pm$ 44 mm (RCP8.5) over the period 2006\textendash{}2100, reducing the current global glacier volume by 29 or 41 \%. The largest contributors to projected global volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska, and glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 80 \% of their volume by 2100. However, large uncertainties in the projections remain due to the choice of global climate model and emission sce-nario. With a series of sensitivity tests we quantify addi-tional uncertainties due to the calibration of our model with sparsely observed glacier mass changes. This gives an upper bound for the uncertainty range of $\pm$84 mm sea-level rise by 2100 for each projection.}, number = {1-2}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, author = {Radi\'c, Valentina and Bliss, Andrew and Beedlow, A. Cody and Hock, Regine and Miles, Evan and Cogley, J. Graham}, month = apr, year = {2014}, keywords = {Done,RootReviewPaper,Master PaperTrail,PaperTrail Beniston2017}, pages = {37-58} } @article{Kearney2009a, archivePrefix = {arXiv}, eprinttype = {arxiv}, eprint = {1011.1669}, title = {Mechanistic Niche Modelling: {{Combining}} Physiological and Spatial Data to Predict Species' Ranges}, volume = {12}, issn = {1461023X}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01277.x}, abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) use spatial environmental data to make inferences on species' range limits and habitat suitability. Conceptually, these models aim to determine and map components of a species' ecological niche through space and time, and they have become important tools in pure and applied ecology and evolutionary biology. Most approaches are correlative in that they statistically link spatial data to species distribution records. An alternative strategy is to explicitly incorporate the mechanistic links between the functional traits of organisms and their environments into SDMs. Here, we review how the principles of biophysical ecology can be used to link spatial data to the physiological responses and constraints of organisms. This provides a mechanistic view of the fundamental niche which can then be mapped to the landscape to infer range constraints. We show how physiologically based SDMs can be developed for different organisms in different environmental contexts. Mechanistic SDMs have different strengths and weaknesses to correlative approaches, and there are many exciting and unexplored prospects for integrating the two approaches. As physiological knowledge becomes better integrated into SDMs, we will make more robust predictions of range shifts in novel or non-equilibrium contexts such as invasions, translocations, climate change and evolutionary shifts.}, number = {4}, journal = {Ecology Letters}, author = {Kearney, Michael and Porter, Warren}, year = {2009}, keywords = {RootReviewPaper}, pages = {334-350}, pmid = {19292794} } @techreport{Neavesb, title = {Biodiversity {{Climate Change}} Impacts Report Card Technical Paper 15. {{Implications}} of Climate Change for Genetic Diversity and Evolvability in the {{UK}}}, author = {Neaves, Linda E and Whitlock, Raj and Piertney, Stuart B and Burke, Terry and Butlin, Roger K and Hollingsworth, Peter M}, year = {2015}, keywords = {Master Expert-Additional,RootReviewPaper}, pages = {1-37} }