INTERNATIONAL LABOUR OFFICE METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS Report prepared for the Seventh International Conference of Labour Statisticians (Geneva, September 1949) GENEVA 1951 S T U D I E S AND REPORTS New Series, No. 18 PUBLISHED BY THE INTERNATIONAL LABOUR GENEVA, OFFICE SWITZERLAND Published in the United Kingdom for the INTERNATIONAL LABOUR OFFICE by Staples Press Limited, London PRINTED BY "IMPRIMERIE KUNDIG", GENEVA, SWITZERLAND CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION CHAPTER I. Concepts and Definitions The Two Main Concepts Man-Hours Expended per Unit of Production Various Aspects of Labour Productivity Labour Productivity at the Various Levels of Production . . Labour Productivity in the Various Branches of Economic Activity CHAPTER II. Factors Affecting the Productivity of Labour General Factors Organisation and Technical Factors Human Factors CHAPTER III. Problems in the Measurement of Labour Different Kinds of Labour Output per Man-Hour and Output per Man Heterogeneity of the Labour Force Measurement of Labour CHAPTER IV. Problems in the Measurement of Output Product Specifications Definition of a Product and of an Industry Degree of Integration Measures Based on Production Processes Duration of the Production Process Measurement of Heterogeneous Outputs CHAPTER V. The Measurement of Labour Productivity Some Possible Approaches The Two General Concepts of Labour Productivity Comparison of Production Indices with Labour Indices . . . Measures of Labour Productivity in Non-Manufacturing Industries Labour Productivity of a Nation CHAPTER VI. Special Enquiries Past Experience Direct Productivity Reports in the United States Conclusions CHAPTER VII. International Comparisons of Labour Productivity . . Problems in the Measurement of Labour Problems in the Measurement of Production Comparability of Production and Labour Data Special Problems of International Comparisons Special Enquiries CHAPTER VIII. Interpretation of Labour Productivity Data The Concepts . Measurement The Interpretation of Over-all Measures Necessity for Detailed Information 1 6 7 8 9 10 12 16 20 23 27 30 31 36 38 41 43 43 46 47 50 51 52 55 55 57 68 73 75 78 78 81 89 91 92 95 99 101 105 108 108 109 112 115 IV CONTENTS CHAPTER IX. General Conclusions Definitions Formulae Man-Hours per Unit of Output Computations Based on Net Output Division of Production Indices by Employment Indices . . . Periods of Computation Special Enquiries Publication I. II. III. APPENDICES Analysis of Labour Productivity Formulae Resolution Adopted by the Seventh International Labour Statisticians Selected References Page 118 118 119 119 120 121 121 122 123 124 Conference of 132 134 INTRODUCTION Mankind has always striven to obtain the maximum of satisfaction for the minimum of effort. In this desire for efficiency or productivity of effort originated the invention of primitive tools and of the most outstanding machinery of modern times. For a given community, higher production implies a higher standard of living; but, since economic welfare is the sum of material production and leisure in which to enjoy the fruits of production, productivity is a far better index of economic welfare than actual production. Productivity is a general term; any factor of production may be studied for its productivity. Labour productivity has received the greatest attention because of its direct relation to the results of human effort. The importance of labour productivity has been summarised as follows: If problems of production are approached from the viewpoint of capita] employing labour, the cheapness of labour relative to capital is one of the main factors determining methods of production, and money costs of production are of paramount importance. If, on the other hand, the view is taken that labour employs capital (and not the other way round) to increase its standard of life by capitalistic methods of production, " dear " labour becomes the object of policy and not one of its determining factors. Here labour ought to be made dear and capital cheap, and an economics of plenty substituted for an economics of scarcity. Money costs of production, influenced by monopoly, market imperfections, low living standards in overseas countries, and a host of other factors, are no longer sovereign. Real costs of production now become important—costs of production in terms of labour and other real factors of production. Ultimately, real costs of production can be reduced to labour costs and the cost of what the classical economists called " waiting ". Hence the importance of the concept of the productivity of labour. The problem of policy consists in increasing the productivity of labour, each increase in productivity being balanced against the increase in the cost of waiting called forth. The acceptance or rejection of hydro-electric schemes, for instance, depends chiefly on relative wages in coalmining and in industries producing hydro-electric plant, and also on the customary rate of return on capital in different industries; it ought to depend on differences in manpower requirements 2 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS between different methods of producing energy, to be balanced against differences in the amount of waiting required. 1 The advantages of high labour productivity have been pointed out many times; a United States expert writes: Productivity, once simply a tool for the economist, is acquiring new significance to the worker, the business man, the soldier, and the statesman. It has long been understood that the relatively higher standard of living of the American citizen was the direct fruits of higher productivity in our economy. In effect, it has given us not only bread and butter, but jam as well. During most of the last century there has been a high and steady rate of growth in production per man-hour in the United States. Primarily, this has resulted from the continued acquisition of technical knowledge and its steady application to the jobs we want done. The cumulative effects have reshaped the lives of all of us. As our production potential has increased, the average worker has been able to buy steadily increasing quantities of goods. Simultaneously with more goods, we have been able to afford more leisure time in which to enjoy them. Many arduous but necessary tasks have been eliminated. The labour of the home has been greatly reduced. As we have freed ourselves from the pinch of material wants, we have been able to divert an increasing proportion of our resources to such activities as schools and social services.2 Similarly, Lenin wrote that " productivity of labour is, in the end, the most important matter, the essential matter for the victory of our social system ", and the increase of productivity of labour has been one of the most important aims of the Soviet Union's policies. Since the second world war, practically all countries have put this question in the foreground of their preoccupations. In France the question of higher productivity is now considered to be crucial: To restore its economic situation, France has been striving since the liberation to increase production. In her efforts to reach this aim, she has tried to ascertain the factors which limited production; some factors, such as the coal crisis and restricted imports, have been eliminated or their influence gradually reduced; one of them—and one of the most important—has not yet been sufficiently brought to light and studied; it has limited and still limits our production: it is our low productivity. 3 1 T. B ARNA : " The Productivity of Labour : Its Concept and Measurement ", in the Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Statistics, Vol. 8, No. 7, July2 1946, p. 205. E. CLAGUE: "Planning Guides for Industry", in Dun's Review, Oct. 1948, pp. 20-21. 3 PRÉSIDENCE DU CONSEIL, COMMISSARIAT GÉNÉRAL DU PLAN DE MODERNISATION ET D'ÉQUIPEMENT: Programme français pour Vaccroissement de la productivité (Peb. 1949). INTRODUCTION 3 Productivity of labour has been the subject of numerous studies for many years. One of the first statistical enquiries on the subject, directed especially to a comparison of the productivity of labour in hand and machine operations, was carried out as far back as 1898 by Carroll D. Wright, Commissioner of Labor and head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States. 1 The question has, in fact, always aroused considerable interest in the United States, and the amount of statistical literature available on the subject in that country is particularly large. The selected list of references appended to this report gives the main publications. The studies of David Weintraub and the Works Progress Administration, Solomon Fabricant and Duane Evans in the United States, and of Laszlo Rostas in the United Kingdom, are among the main contributions. The rehabilitation of shaken economies, the necessity of balancing imports and exports, the development of full employment policies and the pursuit of high levels of production have shown labour productivity to be of vital importance to all national and international bodies. The productivity of labour may be considered a cornerstone of the economy of the future. The International Labour Organisation is primarily interested in this topic, not only from the point of view of the development of general welfare and higher standards of living, but also as a problem of fundamental concern to workers. In the development of productivity policies, detailed information must be sought, mostly of a statistical, nature : information concerning the level of productivity of labour in undertakings, industries and countries ; comparisons between plants, regions and above all countries are prerequisites to any action on this point. Since the end of the second world war, the productivity of labour has been studied by many conferences or committees; examples are the conferences on productivity held in Washington and the Anglo-American Council on Productivity in the United Kingdom. In France the Office of the Commissioner-General for the Industrial Equipment Plan has devoted numerous conferences to the subject, and an Interministerial Committee on Productivity has been created. These conferences and committees have all stressed the importance of obtaining correct and complete information, and the necessity of developing the measurement and comparison of labour productivity. 1 C. D. WRIGHT: Hand and Machine Labor, United States Department of Labor, 13th Annual Report, 1898. 4 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS Even in the United States, which is conspicuously in advance of other countries in the measurement of productivity of labour, an official report recently noted that— (1) the methods of measuring productivity of labour must be developed beyond their present scope; satisfactory solutions to the problems of production measures, labour input and price deflators should be sought; (2) long-range historical studies should be made of the changes in productivity of labour and their causes ; (3) there is urgent need for current and up-to-date data on productivity of labour, since most of the present data are out of date when they become available.1 In view of the increasing interest in this problem, the Governing Body of the I.L.O., at its 104th Session in March 1948, placed the subject of methods of statistics of productivity of labour on the agenda of the Seventh International Conference of Labour Statisticians. The present report, prepared for this Conference, reviews, therefore, the methods of measuring and comparing productivity of labour.2 As it represents the first report of the International Labour Office on the statistical aspects of this subject, it is of a preliminary and informational character, and endeavours rather to raise problems and analyse them than to prescribe definite solutions to the considerable difficulties that are to be encountered. The report is entirely concerned with problems of measurement, comparison and interpretation of data, and no analysis is attempted of the effects of high or low productivity of labour, or of its relations to other aspects of economic or social life. In particular, economic or social aspects and effects of high or low productivity of labour are not within the scope of the present study. Whether better conditions of life are to be sought through a high standard of material consumption or more leisure, or whether increases in productivity are obtained, for instance, through undue fatigue of the workers, are questions outside the present enquiry. This report is concerned merely with how levels of productivity can or should be measured and compared. The report is divided into nine chapters. In Chapter I are reviewed the varying objectives of the measurement of the pro1 Report of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report on Current Gaps in our Statistical Knowledge (80th Congress, Second Session, 1948). 2 See Appendix II for the text of the resolution adopted by the Seventh International Conference of Labour Statisticians. INTRODUCTION 5 ductivity of labour, its concepts and possible definitions, and the different types of labour productivity in the various stages of production or branches of economic activity. Chapter II gives an account of the many factors which influence labour productivity, and Chapters III and IV deal with problems concerning the definition and measurement of labour and of production in relation to labour. The actual measurement of the productivity of labour is the subject of Chapter V1; the comparability of production and labour figures is also discussed in this chapter, and an analysis is made of productivity or unit labour requirement indices and of possible formulae. A separate chapter is devoted to the collection of data through direct enquiries into the productivity of labour (Chapter VI), in view of the importance and advantages of this source. The first six chapters thus clear the ground for the analysis of the special problems involved in international comparisons of labour productivity which are discussed in Chapter VII. Chapter VIII is devoted to a consideration of the various interpretations that might be given to labour productivity data in relation to the bases of computation. Some general conclusions are drawn up in Chapter IX. 1 Appendix I contains a more formal presentation of the argument of Chapter V. CHAPTER I CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS Output is obtained by the combined input of a number of factors which all have their importance—equipment, resources, energy, work, skill, management; these factors may be grouped under the headings of labour, capital, land and organisation. The ratio between output and one of these factors of input is generally known as the productivity of the factor considered. One writer comments: Some think of productivity as a measure of performance of the economy as a whole. Others think of productivity in terms of individual industries or plants. Some business men, in their public orations, speak as though the whole matter of productivity had to do with the degree of application of workers to their jobs. At other times, the concept of productivity is used as though it were a measure of the degree of efficiency achieved in production. The dictionary merely tells us that this word stands for the " quality or state of being productive ". One thing common to all these concepts of productivity is the desire to portray someone's ability to produce or the rate at which production is carried on.1 Another writer states : One can compare any factor to the corresponding production. Measures of all kinds have been made; production has been compared to the surface covered or available, to the cost of buildings, to energy provided or consumed, to invested capital, to the total cost of planning and even to the average temperature of the premises . . . Production can also be compared to the quantity of raw materials used. Other things being equal, the results will yield interesting indications of the degree of waste, the degree of technical efficiency of certain machines or methods, etc.2 Historically, Government and private research workers have usually defined and measured productivity as the ratio between production (or output) and the expenditure of some resource used in production (or input). The greatest interest has always 1 L. TEPER: " This Thing called Productivity ", in The American Federationist, Nov. 1948. 2 G. DEURINCK: "Mesure de la productivité", in Organisation Scientifique, Dec. 1948, p. 362. 7 CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS centred in the relationship between production and labour, the universal resource, and the term " productivity " is frequently used without qualification to refer to this ratio. The most general definition of productivity of labour is therefore the ratio of output to the corresponding input of labour. This definition is very broad, since it leaves the terms " output " and " labour " open to a number of interpretations, but it covers all definitions, whether implicit or explicit, which have been presented in various studies. For instance, it does not decide between employment or man-hours as the correct measure of labour. THE TWO MAIN CONCEPTS The various definitions so covered can be sorted into two large groups, which correspond to the alternative answers to the following question : should the productivity of labour for a group of products, undertakings or industries be so defined that it remains unchanged when the productivity of labour of each component is unchanged, or should the definition be such that even when the productivity of labour for each component has not varied, the over-all productivity of labour may have changed, because of variations in the relative importance of the various components—for instance, the rise in importance of those with a high level of productivity to the detriment of those with a low one ? The first concept, that is, an average productivity which will remain unchanged when each individual productivity is unchanged, will normally be used when variations in the productive efficiency of an industry or the combined effect of such variations in a group of industries is studied. It will also answer such questions as the following, taken from the report of the United States Works Progress Administration : (1) What relative volumes of'labour time are required to produce a given composite of products at different times ? (2) What relative volumes of production of a given composite of products are obtainable at different times with a given amount of labour time ? Answers to these questions are of use in estimating (1) employment requirements for different levels of production and (2) future production under various conditions of availability and utilisation of labour.1 1 UNITED STATES WORKS PROGRESS ADMINISTRATION, SEARCH P R O J E C T : Production, Employment and Productivity ing Industries, 1919-1936, May 1939, P a r t I, p . 3. NATIONAL in 59 RE- Manufactur- 8 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS The second concept, that is, an average productivity which may vary, owing to the changing composition of production, even if each individual productivity is unchanged, is of much wider scope ; it takes into account that average productivity increases when products, undertakings or industries corresponding to a high level of productivity increase their importance in comparison with those corresponding to a low level. This second concept will be used when comparing over-all changes in the ratio of manufacturing output to total manufacturing employment, or national output to total employment or total labour force. It will be shown later that it is often implicitly used when labour productivity indices, for instance, are computed by the division of ordinary production indices by employment or man-hour indices. Thus, the choice between these two concepts will depend on the information sought, although it will, of course, always be preferable—whenever possible—to compute data on both bases in order to ascertain, for instance, the influence on the observed changes of the modification in the composition of the production. However, most of the considerations on the measurement of production and labour apply to both concepts and can be examined independently of those concepts; the meaning and interpretation of the various measures and formulae used will be pointed out in Chapters V and VIII with regard to their relation to these two concepts.1 MAN-HOURS EXPENDED PER UNIT OF PRODUCTION The first approaches to the subject of measuring labour productivity generally referred to the ratio of production to labour. But in everyday practice, this ratio, while full of interest, has often proved to be more difficult to use than its reciprocal, termed " unit labour requirements ", or " man-hours expended per unit of production ". In effect, this last measure is being more and more used in place of the productivity of labour to characterise the same phenomenon. Its definition runs as follows : For a single uniform product, the unit labour requirement for any particular time is the labour consumed per unit of output of the specified 1 Other concepts of productivity of labour may be considered, such as marginal productivity, i.e., the variation of output for an additional unit of labour. As these concepts are not within the immediate scope of this report, they have not been dealt with. CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS 9 good, or (which amounts to the same thing) the ratio of the total labour required for the production of a given volume of a homogeneous good to the given volume of that good.1 The main advantage of data concerning man-hours expended per unit of product is that they can be added together, whereas labour productivity data cannot. When absolute figures of productivity of labour are computed in terms of physical units produced per man-hour, for example pounds of cotton yarn spun per man-hour, or pounds of woven cotton produced per man-hour, the data cannot be combined with similar figures through direct addition; new computations must be made. On the contrary, " unit labour requirements ", expressed in terms of hours worked in order to produce a defined good, can be directly added or subtracted. The advantage of this characteristic of unit labour requirements is particularly important when comparing the productivity of labour of two undertakings, only one of which is integrated: man-hours expended per unit of output can be shown for each stage of the production, and comparisons can therefore be made between corresponding stages; with figures stated in terms of output per unit of labour this is difficult or impossible. Thus, if comparisons are required between two cotton textile plants, in one of which the cotton is spun and then woven, whilst in the other only the weaving stage is performed, if unit labour requirements are computed it will be possible for the first plant to show separately, in the total unit labour requirements, those needed to spin the cotton and those needed to weave it, and therefore comparisons will be possible with the data collected for the second plant.2 Moreover, no reference to the efficiency of the workers is implied in the number of man-hours expended per unit, but rather the amount of labour required having regard to the possibilities or drawbacks of the techniques used ; in other words, the influence of factors other than that of labour alone is obvious. VARIOUS ASPECTS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY It was noted in the introduction that this report is confined to the discussion of methods of measuring productivity, and there1 D. EVANS and I. SIEGEL: " T h e Meaning of Productivity Indexes", in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Mar. 1942. 2 The United States Works Progress Administration, in developing formulae for productivity indices, consistently utilised " unit labour requirements " measures in preference to " productivity ". (Cf. Production, Employment and Productivity in 59 Manufacturing Industries, 1919-1936, op. cit., Part I, Chapter 1, pp. 3 et seq.) 10 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS fore does not deal with economic or social aspects of the question. It might, nevertheless, be useful to touch upon some of the aspects of labour productivity that might bear a relation to its measurement. The economic usefulness of the output does not affect the level of productivity. Whether the placing of publicity posters is economically " useful " or not has no bearing on the fact that the bill poster can post so many posters (of a given size) per hour of work. The economic usefulness of the posting may be important, however, in considering at the national level whether spending time and money on advertising constitutes the best investment of the nation's resources. Should a distinction be made between " manual " and " nonmanual " productivity of labour ? A simple example of the first is the productivity of a piece worker, while the second might be exemplified by the productivity of a research chemist. There seems to be no difference in concept between these two types, but only a difference in the possibilities of measurement. But there is certainly such a thing as the productivity of labour of the usherette in a theatre, of a waitress in a restaurant, of an office clerk, of a telephone operator, of a translator, a librarian, etc., even though the productivity of such persons is difficult or impossible to measure because of the difficulty of measuring their production. This point will be raised again with respect to productivity in nonmanufacturing industries. LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY AT THE VARIOUS LEVELS OF PRODUCTION The measurement of productivity becomes increasingly difficult as one proceeds from the consideration of the production of a single independent worker to that of an industry including many plants manufacturing related but different products. The case of the single independent worker seems simple—• in most instances, his output and the labour he contributes can easily be defined. The cutter in a tailor's shop will prepare a certain number of pieces per hour for the making of overcoats; the miner cuts a certain weight of coal per day, etc. Special problems arise for " non-manual " workers, as noted above. It is difficult to define the production of an office clerk who is not assigned an entirely routine job; to define the production of the supervisor of a gang of workers is still more difficult. It is important to note that even for the simple case of a single CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS 11 worker, the productivity of labour is not identical with efficiency ; it is not solely a measure of the worker's effort. The faster a sweeper works and the less time he loses, the faster the floor will be cleaned; but if he sweeps the same floor with a better broom, he will be able—for the same effort expended—to finish his job in a shorter time. If he is given a vacuum cleaner he may not go any faster, but the job accomplished is not entirely comparable to the previous one; the production is somewhat different in quality—the floor is cleaner. A worker is thus not the complete master of his productivity; the tools or machines used, the technique followed, the quality of raw materials consumed, etc., have in most cases more influence on his productivity than the effort he expends. This fact had already been stressed in 1898: In what is termed the " hand " method of production, machines have been used. It is true that the machines thus used are generally of the most simple kind, such as the saw, the hammer, the chisel, the pick, the shovel and the knitting needle; yet these are no less machines than the larger or1 more complicated ones used in what is termed the machine method. A distinction might also be made between machine-paced and man-paced work. There is a wide difference in the output of base paper, which is dependent on the speed of a paper machine, and the number of bricks laid in a day, which is the result of conscious control by the individual operator. Wherever there is a chain assembly or an automatic machine, the standard capacity of work is known. In the case of the line assembly, the employee must keep up to this capacity. Thus, it should be clear that the productivity of a single worker is that of a unit, " man plus machine ", that is, the productivity of the worker with a given set of tools or a certain machine, and therefore does not depend solely on the worker's effort. The next level is that of the gang of workers. Here the productivity of labour is a consequence of a number of combined factors. The ability of the supervisor may have as much influence on output as the individual efficiency of each worker. In most cases, however, the production remains easily definable, since the gang is normally assigned a complete job; it might even sometimes be easier to define the production of the gang than that of each of its workers. The measurement of the labour productivity of an entire workshop will encounter many of the difficulties involved in 1 C. D. WRIGHT: op. cit. 12 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS measures for larger units. Management influence is increasing; " auxiliary labour " (clerical workers, errand boys, etc.) contributes to production. Production itself may already be heterogeneous, and this will raise the problem of addition. When a large undertaking is considered, heterogeneity of production becomes a major difficulty; an automobile factory may also produce automobile parts, wheelbarrows, toys, etc., in addition to automobiles. Management intervention, specialisation and division of work, the establishment of standards, recruitment policies, the building up of stocks, etc., introduce many problems which are ignored at the job level. Hence, the productivity of labour of an undertaking becomes a complex concept. At the next level, the industry, the questions to be solved become extremely difficult. The obtaining of statistical data will be impeded by the lack of comparability of accounting methods in different undertakings, and the differences in production, as well as by the administrative problems of securing data; the varying composition of the production may have a considerable influence on the results; thus the statistical problems may appear insuperable, and the solutions adopted will differ according to the purpose of the enquiry. LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE VARIOUS BRANCHES OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY The preceding remarks apply mainly to manufacturing and mining. But the manufacturing industries in any country at most represent less than half of the economy as a whole. Even in the most industrialised countries mining, manufacturing and the construction industries together do not attain 50 per cent, of the total: for example, in Belgium these industries occupy 48 per cent, of the total labour force, in Czechoslovakia 39 per cent., in Germany 41 per cent., in the United Kingdom 46 per cent., and in the United States 33 per cent. In other countries the same three groups represent altogether about one fourth of the economy, while in underdeveloped countries they often hardly amount to one tenth. However, the bulk of the studies on labour productivity relate to manufacturing, and it would appear that the importance of this part of the economy has been over-emphasised, at the expense of agriculture, transport, trade and services. The main reason, as can easily be shown, lies in the fact that problems of measurement are much more difficult in these other industries. CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS 13 In agriculture the measure of output has to be based on annual production. As in the case of a manufactured product, it is conceivable to measure productivity—or man-hours expended per unit—for the various phases of a job (e.g., in the production of wheat, ploughing, harrowing, sowing, mowing and threshing). The chief problems, however, for this part of the economy lie in the measurement of the labour expended: the definition of farm employment, not to mention the hours worked and especially the collection of accurate data in this field, has always been unsatisfactory. It should also be noted that the efficiency of the worker, understood as the influence of his personal effort, may be of little importance in production which varies mostly according to the quality of the soil, climatic conditions, equipment, etc. In transport, on the contrary, the measurement of employment or man-hours does not raise more problems than in manufacturing. But here " output " is never very obvious : what is the output of a bus driver, or of a bus company ? Is it the number of persons transported or the total " man-miles " accomplished ? Disregarding the problem of collection of data, neither of these measures of production (or any other conceivable one) is very satisfactory. For example, the total money collected from the persons transported can be compared to employment or man-hours; but it is obvious that such measures are quite remote from the basic notion of productivity of labour. Let it be added that here also personal efficiency has little effect on the output; the number and quality of guards and drivers on a train is independent of the number of passengers, though, of course, they have an important bearing upon accidents and the successful performance of transport activity. Nevertheless, measures in this field are of great importance: the competition between rail and road, and the comparative advantages of each should be, for instance, tested by the number of man-hours required for the accomplishment of a certain task, e.g., the transport of a ton or a unit of money's worth of merchandise. The measurement of productivity of labour in trade and services is extremely difficult, because these functions are of a service nature for which there is normally no unit of physical measurement. It would be of the utmost importance to develop such measures, but owing to the problems involved very little has been achieved in this direction. 14 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS The measurement of labour in the field of distribution is also complicated by the fact that an occupational classification might be thought preferable here to an industrial one: it may be urged that the " output " of distribution should be compared to the occupational group of sales persons, that is, chiefly those employed in wholesale and retail trade plus sales personnel employed in other industries. It would also seem important to know something about Government productivity in order to measure average productivity for the economy as a whole, to understand employment trends in the service industries, and to estimate rationally the budget requirements of the various Government activities and services. Here, however, adequate statistical data are lacking. Such measurements are possible where the output produced by Government is similar to that produced in some private industries in which physical productivity can be measured; where units of output cannot be counted—as is true in much public employment— no satisfactory method has yet been put forward. In most of these cases the difficulties mentioned arise from the fact that the products or the production are not measurable in the present state of knowledge. It is relatively easy to determine the production of a piece worker at his machine or of an automobile plant; it is not feasible to determine the " production " of a civil servant drafting laws, or the production of a Government department as a whole; it is still more difficult to judge of the productive value of negative conclusions reached by a research chemist, or of the presumably tremendous productivity of the discoverer of atomic energy. Disregarding all such extreme examples, it may be asserted that trade and service industries, as well as Government activities (national defence, public administration, the judicial system, etc.) clearly contribute to the economy, though the contribution cannot be measured in terms which are comparable with those used in measuring the contribution of sectors of the economy which produce physical commodities. Finally, certain methods of measurement have been used in an attempt to evaluate the total economic activity within the country, usually in monetary terms, and their use in conjunction with employment and man-hour statistics provides valuable information. For example, in recent years gross national product statistics have been divided by measures of man-hour input to show the trend of gross national product per man-hour. Although this relation- CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS 15 ship is of importance, it is essentially a monetary measure, and as an indicator of productivity must be interpreted with care: such measures correspond to the second type of labour productivity concepts as described at the beginning of this chapter. They will be considered in more detail in the following chapters. CHAPTER II FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR It will be recalled t h a t productivity of labour has been broadly defined as the ratio of output to the corresponding input of labour. There is normally a strong tendency, when considering labour productivity data, to enquire into the factors responsible for the variations observed, or to ascribe these variations to the influence of certain factors. Management will have a tendency to claim t h a t increases in productivity are a result of its sole action, or to consider labour as responsible for any decreases; on the other hand, labour will normally reject the idea that a decline in productivity might be due to a slow-down of effort, but will consider t h a t higher wages should be an immediate consequence of increased productivity; technicians will tend to ascribe all variations to mechanical and technical improvements. In order to ascertain the actual meaning of labour productivity data, and to determine whether any measurements can be devised to show the separate influence of one or another of the various factors, this chapter is devoted to the factors affecting productivity of labour. Although at first thought it might be expected t h a t variations in the productivity of " labour " must be due to " labour ", if the definition is examined carefully it should be clear t h a t any factor affecting output or labour may have an influence on labour productivity. Only when the quantity of labour contributed to the output is the sole factor which has changed will the productivity of labour vary in relation to labour alone ; this case is rare. In most comparisons many factors other than labour have varied and therefore account for part of the differences observed. This observation has been made by all research workers who have dealt with productivity increases; two quotations will suffice: Increases in the output of a worker should not be identified with harder work, or a lack of increase in productivity with slackness on the part of workers. This may be one of the many determining factors, FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR 17 and in certain circumstances it may be an important one but, in the main, changes in the output of a worker are measurements of general efficiency. They show the combined effects of a large number of separate though inter-related influences, such as technical improvements, managerial efficiency, the flow of material and components, the relative contributions of plants at different levels of efficiency, as well as the skill and effort of workers. When it is found, therefore, that the output of a worker in a man-year is increasing, this increase may be attributed to any or to the joint effect of all these factors.1 Patently the data on labour productivity do not measure the specific contribution of any single factor in production, be it labour, capital equipment, management or any other component in the whole process ; they register instead the combined results of all the distinct but interrelated influences that determine output per man-hour. Yet equally patently the long-term gains in efficiency stem mainly from the advance of science and technology and its application to production. Predominant have been the contributions of manufactured power; of varied improvements in equipment, ranging from the steady accumulation of small changes to the introduction of highly specialised and semiautomatic or automatic machines; of parallel improvements in the organisation of the production process, from more efficient layout to assembly-line production; and so on. Other factors which, if they have had less potent influence upon productivity within the long-run pattern, have none the less played their continuing part at any given time, include the scale of operations, the level of plant efficiency, the location of the shop, the quality and flow of materials, the skill and attitude of the work force, and so on.2 While the action of all the various factors is often blurred in the over-all picture shown by productivity data, certain factors are sometimes brought to light under the influence of special conditions; this was the case in Germany immediately after the end of the second world war: Average efficiency of labour is about half as high as before the war. This condition has a number of causes. Shortage of food and insufficient transportation have reduced the physical fitness of individual workers. The average quality of the working population is reduced by the selective effects of war losses. Because of bad living conditions absenteeism is very high. Lack of capital equipment and industrial integration and the great amount of work going into repair are all forces increasing the use of labour per unit of production. Furthermore, in an interpretation of a possible future extension of production, enterprises are pursuing a policy of storing labour.3 The following list illustrates the number and variety of the important factors influencing labour productivity; they have been grouped under three main titles, in order to facilitate analysis. 1 2 3 L. ROSTAS: " Output a Head ", in The Times, 10 Nov. 1948. Harvard Business Review, Vol. XXVII, No. 3, May 1949. OFFICE OF MILITARY GOVERNMENT FOR GERMANY, United States Zone: The Population of the United Slates Zone of Germany, Part II, Nov. 1947. 18 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS General Factors Climate. Geographical distribution of raw materials. Fiscal and credit policies. General organisation of the labour market. Proportion of the labour force to the total population, degree of unemployment, of labour shortage and of labour turnover. Technical centres and information concerning new techniques. Commercial organisation and size of market. General scientific and technical research. Variations in the composition of the output. Influence of low-efficiency plants and their varying proportion in total output. Organisation and Technical Factors Degree of integration. Percentage of capacity used. Size and stability of production. Quality of raw materials. Adequate and even flow of materials. Subdivision of operations. Balancing of equipment. Multiple machine systems. Control devices. Quality of output. Rationalisation and standardisation of work and material. Layout and location of the plant. Maintenance and engineering services: safety, light, sound, ventilation, air conditioning, telephone, etc. Availability, fitness and accessibility of tools. Wear and tear of machines and tools. Amount of machinery (or power) available per worker. Proportion of maintenance labour to operating labour. Length and distribution of working hours. Selection of personnel. Human Factors Labour-management relations. Social and psychological conditions of work. Wage incentives. Adaptability to, and liking for, the job. Physical fatigue. Composition (age, sex, skill and training) of the labour force. Organisation of the spirit of emulation in production. Trade union practices. Tables I and II give some numerical indications of the changes in labour productivity attributed to various factors. Table I refers to experience in various countries, table II to increases in productivity in the U.S.S.R. in the period following the first world war. FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR TABLE I. 19 EXAMPLES OF INCREASES IN OUTPUT DUE TO NON-MECHANICAL FACTORS Method Place, industry or operation Arrangement of premises and workplaces German chemical factory Shape of benches Swiss food factory Improved lighting United States 13 cases 3 cases 1 case 1 case Bricklaying i Assembling parts of textile machinery Manufacture of tin boxes Shirt factory Systematic arrangement of tools Adjusting stand to height of worker Apple packing (United States) Selection of workers Pig charging (Bethlehem Steel Works) Inspection of ball bearings Miscellaneous Training of workers Swiss experiments Ohio State University studies (average) Manufacture of tins Nailing machine Biscuit packing Baking operations Shelling almonds Addressing Rationalisation of movements Ohio State University studies: Folding cloth Dipping chocolate Packing chocolate Attaching labels Filing forks Assembling carburettors Rope pleating French experiments: Typesetting Type correcting Rhythmic motion (machine) . . . . Chain work France: Fitting brake levers Inspecting brake levers Bicycle factory Germany : Fitting brakes Repairing locomotives Motor manufacture Manufacture of women's underwear . Manufacture of electrical appliances . Czechoslovakia: packing webs Sweden: Manufacture of cooking utensils. Rest pauses Manufacture of pressed cardboard . . . Assembling bicycle chain Operating stamping machine Manufacture of sewing machines . . . Krupp Factory (Austria) Incentives United States: Manufacture of tin tubs. Germany: Manufacture of tin tubs. . . Czechoslovakia: Bata boot factory . . . France: Metal industries Source: UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, BUREAD OF LABOR STATISTICS: Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 37, Nov. 1933, pp. 1,029 et seq. i Gilbreth's examples (cited by F. W. TAYLOR: Principies of Industrial Management). 20 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS TABLE II. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR Industry Percentage increase in product- Most important factors contributing to increase ivity of labour Anthracite 20.5 (1) Increase ot the mechanical process for obtaining raw material by 16 per cent. (2) Increase of delivery by mechanical means. (3) Various organisation improvements. Machine construction 21.9 (1) Growth of supply to factories. (2) Specialisation of production. (3) Introduction of new equipment and organisation of a conveying system. (4) Improvement of the intercorporative and corporative planning of work. Textiles 19.7 (1) Concentration of work. (2) Better utilisation of machines. (3) Organisation methods (output per person). Basic chemicals 28.5 (1) Utilisation of new equipment. (2) Increase of supply. Rubber 37.6 (1) Shortening of working day. (2) Change of assortments. (3) Introduction of new equipment. Match 31.9 (1) Operating of new factories. Electroteehnical 33.4 (1) Increase of supply. (2) Improvement in quality of working staff. (3) Introduction of new equipment. Source: S. M. KINGSBURY and M. FAIKCHILD: Employment and Unemployment in Pre-War and Soviet Russia, report to the World Social Congress, United States, 1931, p. 65. Some illustrations are given below of the influence of some of the factors listed on page 18. GENERAL FACTORS (a) The general influence of extreme heat or cold, high humidity or excessive drought on labour is well known, and explains in large part the concentration of highly productive countries in the temperate zones. FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR 21 In the equatorial and tropical climates, hot and more or less humid, intensity of work is necessarily lower than in the temperate or cold climates. In the latter, the worker can furnish average work of 8 kilogrammeters per second, but much less in the tropics. The adverse conditions of equatorial and tropical climates are reflected in physical abilities: capacity for attention, correctness of interpretation of instructions, speed of reaction, etc. (b) In a study of the causes of the relatively low productivity in France, the Office of the Commissioner-General for the Plan pointed out certain general factors that exert an unfavourable influence ; productivity of labour is understood here from the point of view of the best utilisation of the nation's manpower. The remarks made by this Office would of course apply to many other countries. Reference is made in the study to the drawbacks of the fiscal system, and to the distribution of credit on the basis of financial criteria, in which the degree of organisation and the ability to produce economically are seldom taken into account. Industrial organisations it is stated, contribute insufficiently to the organisation of markets, especially in the field of commercial information ; the result is a waste of effort and time in the search for customers or suppliers, and in the search for products by consumers. The lack of liaison between scientific research and industry is prejudicial both to research and to the practical application of new processes and techniques. There is also a general fear that the expenses of research into new processes, or of " indirect " workers planning the execution of the work, might be useless, but it is noted that in those countries where productivity is high the proportion of such indirect workers is high—and is increasing. The lack of technical centres in a country where small and average-sized undertakings are predominant is said to render difficult the exchange of technical information or the spreading of new techniques. Methods of modern organisation are not widely taught, and are therefore seldom put into practice. This is confirmed by the observations of a United States writer: Basic scientific research and technology are at least as far advanced in Europe as in the United States, but the application of technology to industrial methods has not progressed so far. In short, America has more " know-how ". During the past few decades, industrial methods, factory organisation, and manufacturing equipment have developed along different lines, and as a result productivity has increased in the United States at a greater rate than in other countries.1 1 E . C L A G U E : Productivity, Employment, and Living Standards, report prepared for the Conference on Productivity, Milwaukee, 4 J u n e 1949, p . 6. 22 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS (c) The changing composition of production constitutes one of the most important of the general factors influencing productivity data computed in such a way t h a t they reflect these changes. It is very clear that during the war period a violent alteration in the production pattern did occur. It is also clear that the direction of the shift was towards the production of items where gross value added per worker is high. This shift in the composition of production in part explains the increase in gross national product per man-hour. For this reason, it is dangerous to label the change as an increase in productivity. To some extent the shifts in the production pattern have already reversed themselves, and it is almost certain that gross national product per worker will decline from the war-time peak. * (d) The varying proportions of the output of low-efficiency plants to the total has a similar influence. In a study of the changes between 1939 and 1946 in factory man-hours expended per unit of production in a number of leather tanneries in the United States, most firms reported that unit man-hour requirements increased or decreased less than 10 per cent. in this seven-year period ; however, a number of firms experienced increases as high as 47 per cent, and declines of more than 50 per cent. If performance in the less efficient plants was improved to the level of some of the better (not the best) firms, the average productivity level for the industry would increase considerably. Such an improvement would require no new discoveries, but simply involve the adoption of techniques already in use elsewhere in the industry. In the United Kingdom it was reported in 1946 that— there is an enormous range of technical efficiency (as measured by output per man-shift) between good and bad coal mines. In December 1944 the over-all average output per man-shift was 20 cwt. But 9 per cent, of the total output was produced in mines with an output per manshift of less than 15 cwt.; on the other hand, 23 per cent, of the total coal was produced in mines with an output per man-shift of over 25 cwt., and 7 per cent, in mines with an output per man-shift of over 30 cwt. Thus the inefficiency of the British coal mining industry largely takes the form of a long weak tail. Cutting out the least efficient mines, total output would decrease by about one fifth and output per man shift would rise by over 12 per cent.3 1 D. EVANS: " Recent Productivity Trends and their Implications ", in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. XLII, June 1947. 2 J. JEWKES: " I S Britain's Industry Inefficient?", in The Manchester School, Vol. XIV, No. 1, Jan. 1946. FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR ORGANISATION AND T E C H N I C A L 23 FACTORS (a) Many general statements have pointed out that one of the most important of the factors determining the level of labour productivity is the extent to which capacity is fully utilised. The rate of activity at which a particular industry is operating, —e.g., 25, 50, 60 or 100 per cent, of capacity—would seem to be the most important of the non-technological determinants of labour productivity. 1 In any industry, and particularly in seasonal ones, monthly productivity changes may be dominated by changes in the degree of capacity utilisation.3 The extent to which capacity is utilised is rarely known. The degree of under-utilisation of capacity is sometimes hidden; for example, even accurate statistics of the actual number of hours worked do not reveal that form of underemployment which consists in assigning to each worker a smaller number of looms when orders are scarce—a practice which results in a serious slowdown of labour productivity. This practice is common in the weaving industry. When it is known t h a t the utilisation of capacity varies within wide limits, statements on labour productivity should be made with due caution. During the reconversion period, in the United States it was observed that— until full capacity operations are reached, a large amount of labour will be needed without any corresponding large output of finished goods. No comparisons should properly be made with pre-war performance in these industries until normal utilisation of productive capacity is attained. 3 The occupational composition of the labour force varies when the proportion of the productive capacity which is utilised varies. Thus a larger proportion of workers to the total may devote its time to non-productive tasks (such as maintenance and repairs) during the period of under-capacity operations than during the periods of capacity production. This factor alone will affect the output per man-hour quotient. The influence of the degree of utilisation of capacity has some1 A. WUBNIG: " The Measurement of the Technological Factors in Labor Productivity ", in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.2 XXXIV, June 1939. " The Meaning of Productivity Indexes ", loc. cit. 8 " Recent Productivity Trends and their Implications ". loc. cit. 24 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS times been measured. A study made in the United States* showed that in the brick manufacturing industry, unit labour requirements increased steadily (from approximately 100 to 120 man-hours for 1,000 bricks produced) between 1925 and 1933. Computations were made to correct these figures by taking into account the steady decrease in capacity utilisation (from 80 per cent, to 10 per cent.); the recorded increase in unit labour requirements was practically cancelled by this correction. Steel production affords another example: Modern steel mills are designed for high-speed volume production, and when they are not operating close to capacity they require excessive amounts of labour per ton of output; the unit labour requirement per gross ton of finished steel products at a rate of operating equal to 20 to 25 per cent, of capacity is 46 man-hours as compared with 34 man-hours when 55 to 60 per cent, of capacity is utilised.2 (b) The size of the plant (or the volume of production) is another fundamental factor. For instance, when comparing labour productivity in the steel industry in the United States and the United Kingdom, the scale of production in the two countries must be taken into consideration. With an output of steel approximately eight times larger, it is possible to obtain a much higher productivity in the United States because of production in much larger units. In the study mentioned above 1, comparisons are made of labour productivity in the sugar industry according to the size of the TABLE III. MAN-HOURS PER TON OF BEET SLICED, 1 9 3 3 - 1 9 3 5 Old plant (built 1890-1909) New plant (built 1910-1929) 1.85 1.35 x Dally capacity of plant Less than 1,400 tons 1,400 tons and above Less than 1,400 tons 1,400 tons and above 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 i The plants work 24 hours a day ; the average slicing capacity is therefore a measure of their size. 1 D . W E I N T R A U B : " Some Measures of Changing Labor P r o d u c t i v i t y and their Uses in Economic Analysis ", in t h e Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 33, Mar. 1938. 2 S. F A B R I C A N T : op. cit. p. 22. FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR 25 plants. The comparison of plants with a daily slicing capacity of less than 1,400 tons of beet with those slicing more than 1,400 tons shows the combined difference in size and age of the plants (table III). (c) It is generally recognised that one of the main factors explaining the high productivity of the United States worker in manufacturing is the fact that he has more mechanical equipment to assist him. The advantage of mechanised processes is well known. The same study 1 shows the differences in labour productivity in mines where coal is loaded by hand and those where the loading is mechanised: TABLE IV. ILLINOIS COAL MINES: INDEX OF MAN-HOURS EXPENDED PER TON EXTRACTED (1923 = 100) All mines Hand-loading mines 1923 1935 100 100 100 81 100 70 i Mines which had mechanised loading of 30 per cent, or more between 1923 and 1935. (d) Many undertakings, especially small ones, make a number of different articles. Constant adjustment is therefore necessary, and the workers are compelled to change their work frequently, to the great loss of productivity. Here is seen another advantage of specialisation and standardisation, which promote mechanisation and chain production, thereby increasing labour productivity. (e) The organisation of maintenance, safety, sound, heat, ventilation, etc., is also an important influence in labour productivity. Considerable losses could often be prevented in undertakings by a better organisation of safety. When it is possible to determine and let the workers assimilate the main occupational and safety reflexes connected with the task, then we shall have the best labour and output conditions. The number of mistakes and oversights, the number of wrecked machines and damaged tools—and also the number of accidents to workers—will fall to a few hundredths of what they are at present. The result will be a saving of hands, of hours of work, and of insurance and treatment costs, fewer crippled, fewer unfortunates, and a saving of raw materials. In short, everyone will be better olì. 3 " Some Measures of Changing Labour Productivity and their Uses in Economic Analysis ", loc. cit. 26 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS How many eye injuries are due to the fact that thousands of workers refuse to wear their safety goggles ? Oversight, neglect, indifference ? When the wearing of goggles is made an automatic reaction, eye injuries may become almost a thing of the past; there are undertakings in which this has been and is still being proved. Here, then, is a possibility of effecting a huge increase in individual and collective output. 1 The following examples show increases in labour productivity due to maintenance improvements: The noise level was reduced from 45 decibels to 35 decibels among a group of workers in an insurance office who were engaged in a variety of machine operations. Although no other changes were made in the office, a 12 per cent, increase in output followed the reduction in the noise intensity. This improvement was so great that the officials were inclined to attribute a portion of it to added skill from practice, although the workers were experienced at the time the change was made. Lowering the noise level from 50 to 35 decibels in the telephone operating room of a telegraph company resulted in a 42 per cent, reduction in errors and a 3 per cent, reduction in the cost per message.2 (f) A further example of the influence of organisation factors is that of the length of the working day or week : A widely prevalent reason for reduction in the hours of labour —at least during the earlier part of the century when the work week was very long—has been the experience, or at least the presumption, that the average worker can actually produce about as much in 10 hours as in a 12-hour day, even with all other conditions of production unchanged. Classic examples often cited are the experiences of the Engis chemical factory near Liège in 1892, the Salford iron works near Manchester in 1893, and the Zeiss optical plant in Jena in 1900. In all of these plants moderate reductions in hours per day were accompanied by increases in output per man-hour, and in two by increases in output per worker.3 An article analysing the results of an enquiry into the relation between hours of work and output contains the following comment : If the work is light and if the worker is in complete control over the operating pace, the eight-hour day and the 40-hour week appear to be more efficient, in terms of maximum output per scheduled hour of work, than longer schedules of daily and weekly hours.4 1 F. BILLON : " Psychological and Human Aspects of Vocational Training ", in the International Labour Review, Vol. LIX, No. 5, May 1949, pp. 491-492. .2 " Effect of Noise upon Efficiency ", in the Monthly Labor Review, June8 1930. 4 S. FABRICANT: op. cit., p. 13. M. D. KOSSORIS: " Hours of Work Review, July 1947. and Output", in the Monthly Labor FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR 27 HUMAN FACTORS There seems little need to insist on the fact t h a t labour productivity depends a great deal on the skill of the worker, and therefore is modified by better training and the average skill of the labour force. For instance, in an enquiry into the concrete road building industry in the United States, the rise in productivity from 1919 to 1930 was attributed to the introduction and increasing use of labour-saving machinery, and to the increased skill of workers in.the operation of this new machinery. The systems of remuneration of work may have a considerable influence on the progress of productivity. While wage incentives tend to increase productivity, the reduction of the differences between the wages of unskilled and skilled workers (such as resulted from many inflation measures during the second world war) renders unattractive the necessary effort for higher qualifications, and will thus hinder productivity increases. More attention might be given to general tendencies developed b y the fostering of the spirit of emulation or b y trade union practices. In the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the stakhanovist and other movements to stimulate output have been considerably developed : The term " stakhanovist " is applied in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics to " shock " workers who have completely mastered the technique of their trade, are able to make the most efficient use of their tools and equipment, work rationally and without waste, and regularly exceed the prescribed standards of output. The extent to which a worker must exceed these standards in order to have the right to be called a stakhanovist is fixed for each undertaking with reference to its particular technical conditions. In some branches of industry the best stakhanovist workers—those whose output is double the prescribed standard or more—are given the title " master of socialist work ". 1 On the other hand, trade unions have often been charged in certain countries with advocating restrictive practices—impeding the introduction of technological improvements in processes and machinery, and placing restrictions upon job content, incentive systems, discipline, the allocation of work, the use of prefabricated products, recruitment and dismissal, and sometimes promotion. However, the authors of a recent study of productivity and 1 B . L. M A R K U S : " T h e S t a k h a n o v Movement and t h e Increased P r o d u c t i v i t y of L a b o u r in the U.S.S.R.", in t h e International Labour Review, Vol. X X X I V , N o . 1, J u l y 1936, footnote on p. 1 1 . 28 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS labour relations state t h a t in spite of this long-standing identification of output restrictions with trade union policy, day-to-day observation and systematic study have revealed that the reactions which give rise to restrictive practices are not the result primarily of trade union organisation and collective bargaining. These reactions are rather basic human responses appearing among all workers, non-union as well as union. The report continues: It is important to realise, however, that unionisation does introduce its special influences. If the patterns of restrictive behaviour exist among workers before their entry into a union, labour organisation gives this behaviour institutional expression and thereby multiplies the workers' resources of defence against the dangers they fear. Thus in trade and service occupations, where unions have as yet made only slight inroads, productivity has so far registered only slight advances; in railroad transportation and mining, where unions have long been established, large gains in productivity have occurred over the years. 1 After this general review of the factors affecting labour productivity, it should be immediately evident that the application to duty of individual workers must play a relatively small part in the total changes in manufacturing output per manhour over an extended period. In fact, while Dr. Fabricant's figures indicate that manufacturing output per man-hour more than doubled between 1919 and 1939 2 , it is difficult to believe that the average application of several million manufacturing workers could have undergone any such proportionate change in those two decades. However, in most discussions of productivity data, there is often the implicit assumption that production per man-hour is primarily a function of the mental and emotional attitude of the worker toward his job. This belief that productivity is an attribute of the individual probably stems from two sources. First, it is a commonplace of factory experience that employee " slow-downs " can seriously hinder production, while high morale and general enthusiasm can appreciably increase it. These facts, of course, apply particularly to short intervals of time rather than to periods several years apart; they represent fluctuations about a general trend, not the trend itself. Second, in activities where skill and craftsmanship play an important part, we have all observed the vast differences between experts and beginners. A skilled painter can paint my whole house about as fast as I can do one room—and do a better job of it, too. A skilled carpenter 1 B . M. a n d S. K. S E L E K M A N : " P r o d u c t i v i t y a n d L a b o r R e l a t i o n s " , in t h e Harvard Business Review, Vol. X X V I I , No. 3, May 1949, p p . 377-378. 2 S. F A B R I C A N T : op. cit. FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR 29 can make my best efforts look clumsy and futile. A good assistant can cut my work in half, while a poor one only adds to my woes. But note that all of these pursuits are non-mechanical. A good painter with a spray-gun can far outperform a good painter with a brush; a good carpenter with power tools can outperform a good carpenter with hand tools, and a good tabulating machine operator can far outdo the most diligent longhand tabulator. The more skill and effort that can be transferred from the worker to his tools, the less imposing does individual artistry and attitude become. In this age of mechanisation the trend has been increasingly away from the skill and volition of the individual worker toward the speed, power and consistent performance of the machine. This trend has been especially pronounced in manufacturing.1 From the preceding analysis, it should be clear that variations in the ratio of the physical output per man-hour during different periods can be interpreted as indicators of changes in the relative average effort of the labour force only if— (a) a single plant, turning out a single product, is considered; (b) it is assumed that the product manufactured by this plant does not undergo any changes whatever in its specifications; (c) it is assumed that the raw materials used in the process of production remain similarly unchanged; and (d) it is assumed that no changes in any of the manufacturing methods or techniques (including installation of new equipment) take place within the plant. 1 C. B. YOUNG: "Applications and Problems of Productivity in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Jan. 1946. Data", CHAPTER III PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR Labour is one of the two basic elements in the computation of labour productivity. In the present chapter several points referring to the definition and measurement of this factor will be examined. Labour, in the most general sense, is an effort—mental or physical—applied during a certain time. 1 Unfortunately, the quality of effort, and more particularly of mental effort, is scarcely ever measurable: The productivity of labour is measured by comparing the labour input and the quantity produced during a given time. But we meet here a very serious difficulty: how can the labour input be measured if not by the quantity produced ? The work of the worker, or his effort, is not merely mechanical; the choice of the point of application of his effort is of fundamental importance. So even if it were possible to measure physiologically the mechanical effort, how could the corresponding cerebral effort be measured ? One has therefore to admit that labour input is not, in practice, measurable.2 The obviously measurable factor is the time during which the effort is made. Thus, labour is ordinarily measured by the number of man-hours spent; even when, instead of man-hours, employment is used as a measure of labour, such a measure corresponds to " man-years " and is therefore again a measure of time worked (see below). Since only the time during which the effort was contributed is measured and not the actual effort spent, differences in the quality of effort will influence the results, and therefore effort will be one of the factors affecting labour productivity; it may be the origin of many false interpretations of differences in labour productivity, which too often have been ascribed solely to differences in effort. The preceding chapter has shown t h a t many factors other than effort influence the ratio of output to labour time contributed. 1 In Das Kapital, Karl MARX defines labour as the use of labour power, and the latter as the aggregate of those bodily and mental capabilities existing in a human being. 2 G. DEURINCK: op. cit., p. 360. PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR 31 Had it been possible to measure effort as well as the time during which it was contributed, such errors of interpretation would not have been made. In fact, measures of productivity of labour have often been computed in order to measure the effort contributed. Conclusions on this point are correct only when no other factor than effort has varied. This condition narrows considerably the field within which such conclusions can be drawn—in fact, they can only be drawn when the output of two workers is compared who are working under identical conditions (machines, quality of materials used, etc.). Such comparisons cannot be extended with the same interpretation to departments, plants or industries. It may also be noted that in some cases technological changes permit an actual increase in the productivity of labour (as understood by the total effort contributed for a given output) but may not appear in productivity data as measured b y ratio of output to labour time. Such is the case when the introduction of a laboursaving device merely lessens intensity of effort but does not decrease time spent. For example, the fireman is required on the locomotive whether it is hand or stoker-fired. However, any decrease in the intensity of labour expended probably makes it possible for a fireman to handle a longer run more effectively, and ordinarily saving of effort and saving of time are closely related. DIFFERENT K I N D S OF LABOUR The amount of labour input in a given output, even when measured in time spent, is still not completely determined. For certain purposes, only that labour which is directly devoted to the production of the goods under consideration will be relevant; for other purposes, supervisory labour, management, and even the labour entering into the manufacture of tools used or the sale of the goods produced may have to be taken into account. It has been suggested t h a t the following distinctions should be considered: Operating labour is that required directly in a particular process, such as the operation of a brick-moulding machine. Auxiliary labour is that required in the plant for such operations as oiling, inspecting, adjusting and repairing the machine—in short, all plant labour that is necessitated by the use of the machine but is not considered as engaged in its direct operation. Embodied labour is the labour applied to the production of the machine itself and the materials of which it is made (pro rata over the useful life of the machine), the materials used in 32 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS machine repairs, the power, oil, grease and other materials, if any, consumed in the operation of the machine. Indirectly required labour is the labour required beyond the manufacturing stage, for transportation and marketing. While studies in productivity and labour displacement ordinarily stop short of the point of allowing for all these indirect factors, we should recognise that until they are included we have not ascertained the real change in productivity or the real amount of labour saved or displaced.1 An illustration of the different results that are obtained when considering only part or, on the contrary, all of these kinds of labour is given in table V. TABLE V. HYPOTHETICAL CALCULATION TO ILLUSTRATE THE MEANING OF LABOUR SAVING Number of workers required * Type of labour Output per man-day Percentage increase in productivity New Old New Old machine machine machine machine Moulding machine operators Auxiliary workers . . . . Total, operators and auxiliary workers . Total plant force . . . . Total, plant force plus embodied labour . Indirectly required labour . Total, plant force plus embodied labour and indirectly required labour 70 10 50 5 28,571 40,000 40.0 80 2,000 20 55 1,975 30 25,000 1,000 36,364 1,013 45.5 1.3 2,020 200 2,005 215 990 998 0.8 2,220 2,220 901 901 0 Source: H. JEROME: op. cil. i For a total output of 2,000,000 bricks per day. Embodied Labour An important, although rather theoretical problem, is whether " embodied labour " should be considered as forming a part of the input of labour corresponding to a certain output. A work that appeared recently in France puts forward the view that estimates of labour productivity should take account of embodied labour. 1 H. JEROME: Mechanisation in Industry, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1934, p. 28. PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR 33 The French farmer has appreciably increased his productivity since 1900; it is obvious that this has been possible only because he uses agricultural machinery and fertilisers; but this agricultural machinery has been produced by other men; these fertilisers have been extracted from the soil, treated, transported and delivered to the farmer—therefore, some men have indirectly worked for agriculture.1 The question raised seems particularly important when it is proposed to compare the productivity of labour of two undertakings manufacturing the same product from the same material but with important differences in the degree of mechanisation—for instance, an undertaking building concrete roads with the help of bulldozers and one which has no bulldozers at its disposal: it might be contended that if account is not taken of the labour embodied in the production of the bulldozers, the comparison lacks meaning. However interesting this concept may be, it is nevertheless somewhat remote from the notions commonly used in labour productivity measures, and especially from actual possibilities of any accurate measurement. When this idea is extended, it becomes practically identical with a man-hour cost analysis of the production, taking into account all costs entering into the prime cost of a product: this is so true that Mr. Fourastié, in the work referred to, practically identifies the prime cost with the unit labour requirements as he has defined them, that is, including even the labour " embodied " in the remuneration of capital, etc. In fact, at the present time it would be quite impracticable to measure with any accuracy the unit labour requirements corresponding to embodied labour. Apart from the labour embodied in oil, grease, and other materials used to maintain the machine, what unit labour requirements should be taken into account as corresponding to the output of a bulldozer: the average of those observed in various plants, the minimum, the maximum ? Should it be the unit labour requirements observed in a highly equipped factory, or in a much less mechanised one ? In the present state of knowledge of labour productivity, it appears that data covering embodied labour can only be of a very approximate nature. Thus Mr. Fourastié suggests that the " embodied labour " be estimated on the basis of the money cost of the machines, divided by the hourly wage rates of the labourer; while such computations may be useful and sometimes necessary for economic purposes, they do not at present fall within the scope of a direct analysis. It is only when detailed measures 1 J. FOURASTIÉ: Le grand espoir du ÄÄme siècle, Paris, Presses Universitaires de France, 1949, p. 20. 34 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS of unit labour requirements for many industries, products, and especially production processes have been perfected and standardised that it will be possible (with all the precautions that this will involve) to include embodied labour in the measures and comparisons of labour productivity. Direct and Indirect Labour In most studies of productivity attempts are made to consider two main classes of labour: direct labour, generally (but not uniformly) defined as labour engaged directly in production; and indirect labour, comprising the various workers in the plant who are necessary for production but whose contribution is indirect. An example of the differences between these two kinds of labour may be found in the special enquiries into productivity conducted since 1946 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States. In these enquiries, direct man-hours, related directly to production, and indirect man-hours are defined in a manner which conforms with general accounting practice in the industries. Typical direct man-hour classifications include production or process operators, machine operators, and workers engaged on activities such as metal working, fabrication, assembly, sub-assembly, or finishing. Indirect man-hours generally include supervision, maintenance, the handling of materials, shipping and receiving, inspection, plant protection, control functions in the plant, and other categories related to but not assignable directly to production. General administration, office, engineering, and sales employees are excluded. The advantage of such distinctions is that they make it possible to obtain more precise results: In certain studies for individual firms we have found that elimination of all except direct productive labour and indirect hourly labour (excluding factory supervisory and clerical labour, maintenance and repair labour, which are more or less rigid and do not vary directly with fluctuations in volume) results in a much more rational index or basis for an index of per man-hour output. 1 However, standard definitions of direct have not yet been established. These notions use. Comparisons in time (and still more doubtful value until specific definitions are 1 and indirect labour are not yet in general in space) will be of adopted. U N I T E D STATES NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL CONFERENCE B O A R D : ing Labor's Productivity, F e b . 1946. Measur- PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR 35 For example, a report concerning productivity in Sweden states : In the computation of hours of work, regard has been paid only to those groups of personnel who are designated in the official statistics as "factory workers proper", thus excluding stock and transport workers, mechanics and stokers, watchmen, etc. There is reason to assume that, owing to the more precise instructions given to suppliers of information on the subject, the relation between these two main groups of personnel in course of time has shifted somewhat. The tendency seems to have been to reduce the proportion of factory workers proper, by classifying certain groups of personnel more consistently than before under other categories, such as stock workers, etc. If so, the figures show a somewhat greater increase in the output per working hour than corresponds with the actual facts.1 In a recent comparison of the level of productivity in British and United States industry, the term " direct labour " is used, for example, for labour employed in the cement industry, and the term " indirect labour " for labour employed in the manufacture of cement-making machinery; in the direct labour of the cement industry both process workers and overhead labour are included. 2 Besides the concepts of direct and indirect labour, many similar, though slightly different, concepts have been used. Thus, the group of " production workers " is approximately the same as t h a t included under " direct labour ", but usually maintenance workers are not covered by the latter term ; the term " wage earners " corresponds to a still broader concept. The term " salaried employees " conveys a broader concept than indirect labour, and a rather different one; it is used as a supplement to "wage earners ". These concepts have often been used instead of those of direct and indirect labour because the latter were not directly available. But the variations in their scope from time to time, and especially from country to country, render any comparisons difficult to interpret. One of the main reasons for the distinction between direct and indirect labour pertains to the difficulty of assigning indirect labour to any particular product. Of course, estimates can be made. For instance, the indirect labour ascribed to a given product can be estimated by multiplying the total indirect labour for the whole 1 V. KÄLLSTRÖM: "Efficiency of Industrial Production in Sweden", in Skandinaviska Banken (quarterly review), Vol. XXVIII, No. 1, Jan. 1947. 2 L. ROSTAS: Comparative Productivity in British and American Industry, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Occasional Papers, No. XIII, Cambridge University Press, 1948, p. 2. 36 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS undertaking by the ratio of the direct labour entering into the product to the total direct labour. But the unsatisfactory character of such estimates is obvious. It therefore seems preferable to attempt to make a clear distinction between direct and indirect labour and to compute separate figures for each of these kinds of labour. In such computations, the use of man-hours expended per unit has a great advantage over output per man-hour; thus, unit labour requirements of direct labour may be computed for each individual product or operation in a plant; man-hours of indirect labour expended per unit may be computed for a whole department or for the whole plant only. Such methods, closely related to the actualities of the production process, have been broadly applied in the special enquiries made in the United States. 1 OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR AND OUTPUT PER MAN Two alternative measurements have been used in studies of labour productivity: output per man and output per man-hour. The former relates output to the number of persons employed, disregarding the number of hours that these persons worked; the latter refers to the total number of man-hours worked, disregarding the number of persons who contributed these hours. In many instances, output per man has been used instead of output per man-hour, simply because this calculation was easier from the data available; but the consideration of the essential differences between output per man and output per man-hour shows that these measures have a distinct meaning and illustrate particular aspects of labour productivity; they may not, therefore, be utilised indifferently. At first sight, since the productivity of labour is measured by comparing output to the corresponding input of labour, it might appear that only that time during which labour has actually been engaged in production should be taken into consideration. Such a view, however, proves too narrow. It seems necessary, for instance, to include in the time contributed to work the interruptions of work for rest; thus, if in each hour a staff of punch card operators works 50 minutes and rests 10 minutes, it would seem unreasonable to count only the 50 minutes as time worked, since 1 See Chapter VI. PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR 37 the production—and productivity—of those 50 minutes is possible only when a rest period of 10 minutes per hour is provided. It will be seen, then, t h a t the concept of " hours worked " needs further definition. It can hardly be reduced to the time during which the worker is actually expending his full effort. If the labour contributed, measured in time, cannot be restricted to the time of full effort, the field is open for much more enlarged concepts, which will include holidays, sickness, meal time, etc. Finally, the widest extension of the concept of man-hours may approach the concept of output per man in which the time counted is the full day. However, the difference between employment and man-hours worked includes periods of time which cannot be considered in any sense as a contribution to work—for example, the compulsory idleness of part-time workers or the voluntaryidleness of absentees who of their own free will take a day off. Apart from theoretical considerations, the form under which the data are available in the undertakings gives the basis of most of the practical concepts of man-hours worked. In estimating output per worker, we may have in mind either the workers employed in producing the particular product who are on the books (i.e., colliery books or the books of cotton mills, etc.) or the workers on the payroll or the workers actually at work. Workers on the books may include persons who have left the industry altogether; workers on the payroll will probably include persons who are absent for part of the week, those who left during the week or were taken on during the week or those who went on holidays during the week, all of whom worked therefore only part of a week. Workers on the payroll may or may not include those on holiday for the whole week. " Workers actually at work " would exclude both the absentees and those on holiday and would make allowances for those working only for part of the week. On the other hand, in estimating " output per man-hour " there will be differences between productive hours and hours actually paid, and the latter, at least for time workers, include payment of time spent in meal-breaks and other non-productive time. The widest concept is " output per man-year ", inclusive of absentees and those on holidays, and this is the most useful concept when estimating national incomes or labour requirements. In measuring productivity in the technical sense, output per worker actually at work or output per productive man-hour (the latter being the narrowest concept) are relevant; while measuring costs of production, " output per man-hour actually paid for " is perhaps the appropriate concept.1 The differences, and different uses, of the two general concepts outlined by L. Rostas as output per man-hour and output per " man-year " have been clearly defined as follows : Comparative Productivity in British and American Industry, op. cit., p. 25. 38 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS While the concept " man-hour " of work is definitely circumscribed in the sense that every hour consists of 60 minutes, the concepts " manweek " and " man-year " are ever changing because over a period of years the standard work week may vary in the number of man-days it contains and the man-days in turn may vary in their man-hours content. It is known, for instance, that during the last few decades the man-hours content of a standard man-year has declined considerably. When the standard work week consisted of six days of 10 hours each, the man-year, allowing for 12 holidays, consisted of 3,000 man-hours; during more recent years the standard work week in many industries has been limited to five and a half days of eight hours each or, allowing for holidays, to a little over 2,000 man-hours. For the purpose of measuring changing volume of output in relation to the time actually worked, it would therefore be necessary to measure employment in terms of man-hours of work, but from the standpoint of the number of jobs, the 3,000-hour man-year represents one full-time job for one year in the same sense in which the 2,000-hour man-year represents one full-time job for another year. 1 This short analysis shows that in measuring labour productivity the choice between man-hours or employment as a measurement of labour will depend on the object in view. Thus, when measuring productivity with the object of determining the changing volume of ouput in relation to the time actually worked, the productive capacity of labour, or the cost of production in labour units, it is better to use the man-hour concept; when measuring productivity with the object of estimating manpower requirements, employment possibilities, future national incomes, etc., the concept of output per man is more appropriate. HETEROGENEITY OF THE LABOUR FORCE One limitation common to all studies of labour productivity is t h a t the labour force is treated as a homogeneous entity. So long as no differentiation is made between workers of different skill, aptitude or application, man-hours or employment in no way reflect the degree or quality of effort expended by the labour force in the production process. In this respect, it is well to remember that the " worker " and the " man-hour " are statistical abstractions—that there is, in fact, no satisfactory measurement of a unit of labour. The " hour of work " is not a homogeneous concept, since its influence on production as well as its " effort content " differ 1 D. W E I N T R A U B Productivity, Works mittee, Mar. 1937. and H. L. POSNER: Unemployment Progress Administration, Technical and Increasing Resources Com- PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR 39 widely according to the sex, age, skill and position in the factory of the person who contributes this hour of work. For a manual job, for instance, a man's hour of work will on the average represent more labour than a woman's or a child's hour, and large quantitative differences may appear in the output of different adult males. For non-manual work, differences between individuals are qualitative as well as quantitative and it is difficult to find any method of measuring or assessing such qualitative differences. The hours of work of skilled workers are not interchangeable: one hour of work expended by a loom fixer in fixing a loom cannot be replaced by that of a shoemaker, however skilled the latter may be in his own job. In one factory, for the same number of persons employed or hours put in, output may vary with the distribution of work between manual and nonmanual labour or skilled and unskilled labour. The skill of the workers will have a direct bearing on labour productivity, and differences in productivity figures due to this factor could be eliminated only if the varying composition in skill, age, etc., of the labour force could be taken into account in the measure of the total man-hours contributed or of persons employed. If there were an identical distribution in skill, sex, age, etc., the health of the labour force and other factors would have to be taken into account; for example the war-weary populations after the second world war had, for an identical composition, a much lower ability to work because of the continued effects of the hardships suffered during the war. A technological change which merely permits the substitution of lower for higher-paid labour does not affect a productivity index; still, even if output per man-hour remains the same, at least labour costs have gone down and in some respects there has been progress, which is not acknowledged by the index because it is unchanged by modifications in the distribution of labour that do not affect the total number of hours worked. The nature of the available statistics usually does not permit any distinction to be made between hours of different intensity or hours of different kinds of workers. However, some attempts have been made to weight the different kinds of labour. It has often been proposed to use wage rates or earnings as a means of taking into account the differences in effort (manual and mental) contributed : The quantity of employment can be sufficiently defined for our purpose by taking an hour's employment of ordinary labour as one unit 40 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS and weighting an hour's employment of special labour in proportion to its remuneration, i.e., an hour of special labour remunerated at double ordinary rates will count as two units. 1 It may be that for some purposes the weighting of labour by earnings may present a more homogeneous picture of the labour force. But there can. be no doubt t h a t for productivity measures, and especially for comparisons, such weighting would introduce variations unrelated to those which are to be measured: in a factory which always produces the same total output with the same labour force working the same time, the weighting of manhours b y wages would give risa to variations in productivity figures due solely to variations in the distribution of wages; for instance, if a raise in wages was given to part (say, the unskilled workers) of the employees. I t may be answered t h a t the earnings should be used as fixed weights only, but then the data necessary for such computations on a fixed weight basis are not available and would be extremely difficult to gather. Attempts have also been made to overcome differences in the sex and age composition of the labour force by using a concept of " equivalent men " or " equivalent man-hours " : The units of measurement are in terms of man-equivalent hours, i.e., the farm time used by average adult males in growing and harvesting, for example, an acre of wheat or corn, or feeding and caring for a dairy cow for a year. Because many women, children and older workers accomplish less in an hour than an average adult male, the total of actual hours of farm work in any given year will exceed the total of estimated man-equivalent hours.2 Such computations can only be made on the basis of arbitrary ratios, for instance, by using a scale where time worked b y women is counted as only four fifths; but in any case the determination of such scales is always very questionable. That wide differences do exist in quality and skill is a matter of common experience; and presumably the difficulties encountered and the methods utilised in dealing with them would be analogous to those involved in the computation of index numbers of physical output and of prices. But we can do no more than mention the problem, since very little in the way of statistical material is available. Simple aggregation of numbers is the only practicable solution. Changes in quality and skill of labour and in effort exerted are therefore relevant to the interpretation of these summations. 3 1 ' s J. M. KEYNES, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. G. T. BARTON and M. R. COOPER: " Relation of Agricultural Production to Inputs ", in the Review of Economics and Statistics (Cambridge, Massachusetts), Vol. XXX, 1948. 3 S. FABRICANT: op. cit., pp. 171-176. PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR 41 MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR When it is intended to compute output per man and to construct indices of productivity of labour per head or to compare such figures from country to country, the data which should be brought into comparison with output are those on employment. The problem of definitions, methods, the techniques of the collection of data, etc., on employment have been studied at length in the report of the International Labour Office on employment, unemployment and labour force statistics 1; the conclusions of international debates on this point appear in Resolution I adopted by the Sixth International Conference of Labour Statisticians in 1947.2 It does not seem necessary for present purposes, therefore, to review these problems here. I t has been noted above t h a t the concept of man-hours could be understood, from a statistical point of view, in many different ways: hours actually worked, hours paid, etc. Whatever concept is finally adopted, the collection of the data always involves problems, and the data commonly lack comparability even between plants in the same industry. Data on total man-hours worked are collected regularly and on a large scale in very few countries; in most cases, only indirect data are available, obtained through various methods which are often non-comparable. Even in the United States, where important and detailed studies have been conducted of output per man-hour in the various manufacturing industries, the man-hour figures have often been obtained in dissimilar ways: It should be noted at the outset that statistics for total annual man-hours worked by wage earners or all employees, unlike those for production and employment, are rare and usually fragmentary. The National Research Project indexes for only three industries could be computed directly and independently from man-hour totals. The most common substitute method permitted by available statistics was the multiplication of the employment indexes by relatives of weekly hours and division of the resulting products by 100. The man-hours indexes for 27 industries were computed in this manner. A second method, employed principally for two industries, involved the division of payroll relatives by an index of average hourly earnings of the wage earners. Indexes for three other industries were derived from averages of annual man-hours totals yielded by the two methods. Indexes for seven others were derived by the multiplication of production and unit 1 Employment, Unemployment and Labour Force Statistics, I.L.O. Studies and 2Reports, New Series, No. 7, Part 1. The Sixth International Conference of Labour Statisticians, I.L.O. Studies and Reports, New Series, No. 7, Part 4, pp. 52-60. 42 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS labour requirements (or by the equivalent method, division of production by output per man-hour). Variants and combinations of the methods already mentioned were employed in the construction of indexes for the five remaining industries. Of the 13 group indexes, five were computed for all or most years from the sums of the man-hours for the component industries, and seven were obtained independently from the products of employment and average weekly hours. 1 It is not apparent at first sight that multiplying the index of the average number of workers employed by the index of weekly hours will yield an index of aggregate man-hours worked during the year, for a question arises concerning changes in the number of weeks worked per person per year. However, in the computation of the average number of persons employed account is implicitly taken of change in number of weeks per worker, and the average number of workers so calculated is, in effect, the number of persons that would be employed if all persons worked a full year; i.e., two persons working half a year each are counted as one full-time worker.2 The diversity of the methods employed, and the fact t h a t they are mostly indirect, shows that there are many difficulties in collecting data on man-hours for an industry or a group of industries, and productivity figures derived from such data should be analysed with particular caution. However, when special enquiries are made in a plant to obtain simultaneously output and man-hours (whether hours actually worked or hours paid), it is easier to collect the data on the restricted b a s i s 3 ; in particular, the important distinction between direct and indirect labour is possible in this case. The reporting of man-hour data is then confined to those undertakings with production records which yield accurate statistics of the number of man-hours associated with the production of specific items. Where direct man-hour records &re not available, man-hour data may be derived from labour costs and average hourly earnings; but as this is computed for and within each single plant, the information on man-hours is of much greater significance than when the latter operation is done for an industry as a whole. 1 Production, Employment and Productivity tries, op. cit., P a r t I, p p . 49-50. 2 8 S. F A B R I C A N T : op. cit., footnote on p . 16. See Chapter V I . in 59 Manufacturing Indus- CHAPTER IV PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF OUTPUT As the productivity of labour is the ratio of output to the corresponding input of labour, any method designed to measure this ratio will involve definitions and measurements of output. In this chapter some of the difficulties raised by such measurements will be reviewed; however, it is not intended to examine here all the problems t h a t arise in measuring production per se, but only those which have a direct bearing on the computation of productivity ratios. As already noted in Chapter I, the problems involved in measuring the output of services are often insuperable, because of the difficulty of measuring services in physical terms ; the only possible measurements are in terms of value, and in many cases it may be considered t h a t value does not actually measure output. Thus, the following discussion will be limited mainly to output in manufacturing, mining, transport and communication, where measures of output can be given a relatively concrete basis. PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS The first difficulty lies in the unit that should be utilised for the measurement of a given product. In many cases a number of units are possible. The nature of the article itself, for example an egg, may sometimes be one thing and sometimes another. We can say it is an egg, the egg of a domesticated hen, and even perhaps a newlaid hen's egg. But it may be a big egg or a small egg, and its dimensions may be large or small in relation to its weight. We have the choice, therefore, of measuring " quantity " in terms of one egg (number), one pound of eggs (weight) or an egg of some standard dimensions (physical volume).1 In fact, the problem of the choice of unit arises from differences in " quality " between the different items. If these items were 1 R. WILSON : Facts and Fancies of Productivity, The Economic Society of Australia and New Zealand, 1947, pp. 6-7. 44 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS absolutely identical, the use of numbers, weights or physical volumes would yield identical results. Hence differences in quality are an important factor to be considered in measuring production, and are especially important in productivity comparisons between periods of time or between countries. For instance, in Great Britain, the " saleable mined coal " of 1949 included a good deal of m&terial which before 1939 would not have been classed as saleable; therefore, when the output of coal in Great Britain in 1949 is compared with the output in 1937 in terms of saleable mined coal, the comparison is not a true one. On this subject, one writer in the United States concludes t h a t " no confusion of meaning is possible when it is said that the production of 1,000 five-cent long-filler cigars by hand requires about 33 man-hours, or that the cement industry expended about four tenths of a man-hour to produce a barrel of cement just before the war " 1 ; however, another writer points out that, while no ambiguity is attached to such statements so long as no comparisons are made over a period of time, even such commodities as five-cent long-filler cigars and cement undergo changes in their specifications with time: Thus, it has been noted that a barrel of cement produced in 1936 is chemically and physically much superior to the same cement produced two decades previously (Philip G. Hudson: "The Construction of Indexes of Physical Production ", in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, June, 1939, p. 249) and that cigars have been changing in size and have been undergoing changes and improvements in the filler contents (United States Wage and Hour Division, Research and Statistics Section, Puerto Rico : The Leaf Tobacco Industry, Washington, April, 1941, p. 52).a This idea is further developed in a study already quoted: If we were to compare the products of American factories turned out in 1937 with corresponding goods produced in 1899 the greater number of them would be found to be more durable, more efficient, less noisy in operation, or otherwise better. But such comparisons might not lead to similar results if shorter intervals were considered. To the extent that there have been fluctuations in the rate of improvement in the quality of fabricated commodities, some of the variation in the rate of decline in man-hours per unit of product may be accounted for, though it is unlikely that the quality factors can explain a very large amount of this variation. There is some ground for the belief that the long recession following 1929 resulted in a deterioration of the average quality of some goods, 1 2 " The Meaning of Productivity Indexes ", loc. cit. L. TEPER: Limitations of the Existing Productivity Measures and the Need for New Studies, report prepared for the Conference on Productivity, Washington, 1946. PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF OUTPUT 45 not entirely counterbalanced in the revival that followed. Thus there seems to have been a tendency, especially in consumers' semidurable goods like shoes and clothing, for factories to shift their emphasis to the cheaper grades. Since these require much less labour in fabrication than do the more expensive qualities or styles, the change in the character of output would be accompanied by a decline in the measure of man-hours per unit even in the absence of other factors affecting this ratio. 1 These remarks apply mostly to manufacturing. It should be noted that the quality of a service is still more difficult to define or to keep identical : the quality of a manufactured product depends on physical facts, but the quality of a commercial transaction may not be directly apprehended. Modifications in quality characteristics are in fact only part of the changes in what may be called more broadly " product specifications " : Discussions dealing with the construction of index numbers of production and productivity frequently refer to changes which take place in the product make-up over a period of time as changes in " quality " if the product continues to retain the same general descriptive name, represents the same or similar use-values to the ultimate consumer, and is sold by the same commercial units (pounds, units, yards, etc.). Solomon Fabricant, for example, in The Output of Manufacturing Industries, 1899-1937 (pp. 37 et seq.), speaks of changes in the physical characteristics of radios, such as changes in the size of the cabinet, type of speaker, range of reception, and the ease of tuning, as quality changes. While the quality of goods does change in time, it is but one of the several changes which may take place. It seems much more important, when studying production and productivity, to emphasise over-all changes in the product make-up without limiting the concept of change to the qualitative characteristics to the exclusion of others. Such overall changes are best described as changes in the product specifications. Such a concept encompasses, at least theoretically, the sum total of all possible variations in the product make-up which may take place over a period of time. 2 The problems raised by differences in the specifications of a product are often difficult to solve; they are obstacles to the computation of many economic indices, such as price indices. The solution of such problems generally rests upon specifications of certain physical characteristics (mechanical power, capacity, etc.), global economic use (for instance, a car can transport so many persons such a distance at such a speed), or length of possible use, etc. 1 2 S. FABRICANT, op. cit., p. 20. Limitations of the Existing Productivity Measures and the Need for New Studies, op. cit. 4 46 METHODS OP LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS In a few instances, the difficulties so raised have been at least partly overcome through a study of the component parts of a new product. For example, an electrical appliance manufacturer, observing that a television set is much more complicated than any pre-war radio set, feels that adequate productivity comparisons can be made on the basis of established standards which break operations down into smaller elements. Another method employed by an instrument and controls manufacturer to measure and compare productivity, despite major changes in product, embodies two approaches. Direct labour was related to direct manpower standards which had been time studied. In addition, over-all results were analysed through a cost-analysis approach. " On this basis, by analysis between our price increases compared with our material, wage and salary increases as related to gross profits, it seems fairly evident that we have some increase in physical output over and above the efficiency improvement in our direct labour ".1 DEFINITION OF A PRODUCT AND OF AN INDUSTRY Assuming the question of product specifications has been solved, data must be collected concerning a given product, which must, therefore, be defined. The definition of a product is often predetermined by the classification used by the agency collecting the production statistics. In general, such agencies request the quantities of " economic " products only, i.e., of products intended either for consumption in further fabrication within or outside of a particular industry or for sale to dealers or ultimate consumers. "Uneconomic " output, such as waste, is usually not reported, but saleable by-products are reported. The criteria probably used in distinguishing products are physical characteristics and composition, function or use, process of manufacture, unit and aggregate values as compared with those of other recognised primary products of the same industry. It should be noted that, whatever the criterion used, each reported product really represents a number of more or less heterogeneous items, or a " range ", within which the gradations may be either imperceptible or marked. The degree of detail of the classification is determined largely by the nature of the industry's products, the traditional accounting system, the purposes of the collecting agency, the form of the reporting schedules, etc. 1 H . E. H A N S E N : " P r o d u c t i v i t y on the Increase ", in Survey of Practices, J u n e 1948. Business PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF OUTPUT 47 Actually most of the available production statistics (censuses of production, production figures collected for the computation of production indices, etc.) are obtained from establishments; they are not gathered for a given product. Most establishments produce more than one commodity, and statistics refer to the establishment as the unit and not to the commodity. These establishments are grouped into industries, b u t there is usually a certain amount of overlapping because establishments (with few exceptions) are assigned by the statistical agencies as units to one or another industry according to the product or group of products of chief value, and because establishments classified in any industry are engaged not only in the manufacture of the products normally belorgirg to that industry, but also to a greater or less degree in the manufacture of products normally belonging to other industries. First, to what extent does the given industry make only products described by the name of the industry ? That is, what percentage of the total value of products of the industry is represented by its primary (normal) product ? Second, of the total production of the commodities described by the name of the industry, what percentage is made within the industry itself ? That is, what percentage of a given group of products is produced in the industry specialising in those goods ? The two questions are inter-related. If a given industry devotes half its energies to its primary product, the other half will be given over to commodities that are primary in another industry. In 16 of the 242 industries or groups for which we have data on degree of specialisation in 1929, the value of the primary product constituted less than 80 per cent, of the total output of the industry; in 1931 the number was 15 out of 235. More important was the extent of overlapping. In 1929, out of 224 industries, 29 produced less than 80 per cent, of the total value of the products in which they specialised; in 1931 the proportion was 27 out of 218. Establishments classified in the cereals industry produce some feeds as well; establishments classified in the feeds industry make some cereal preparations also. Another type of inter-relation, where a large industry is surrounded by satellite specialist industries, is illustrated by the meat packing, oleomargarine, sausage, and shortenings industries. It should be remembered that the statistics understate considerably the true amount of overlapping, because many of the units relate to groups of industries. Indeed, the combination into particular groups is probably attributable to the large degree of overlapping among these industries. 1 D E G R E E OF INTEGRATION The actual measure of the physical output of an undertaking is generally independent of its degree of integration. Whether the production process of a shoe fabric includes the punching of 1 S. FABRICANT: op. cit., pp. 335-337. 48 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS raw leather, or whether the undertaking purchases cut-out soles, and, in general, punched leather, its output will be measured by the total number of shoes produced ; but the total labour required (for a shorter task) is smaller in the second case. Hence, the productivity, when measured in terms of the ratio of output to labour, is higher, yet this higher ratio simply reflects a difference in the degree of integration. Similarly, whenever industries undertake the production of semi-manufactures previously obtained from outside sources, the productivity ratio will decline. This consideration is not relevant to the study of the variations in labour productivity in a plant which does not modify its methods of production over a period of time; but its importance is clear when such changes do occur, or when the comparisons to be made affect plants of different degrees of integration. It might be thought that to overcome this difficulty the production of a plant should be measured in terms of net output instead of physical output. (The value of net output is usually defined as the aggregate value of goods produced, i.e., the value of gross output, less the value of all commodities and services purchased from other plants and consumed in the production process.) This measurement would have the advantage of counting as " output " only that part of the final product of the plant that has been manufactured on the premises; comparisons would then appear to be easy between plants of different degrees of integration; it would even seem possible with these measurements to overcome differences in product specifications, and even to compare the labour productivity of different industries altogether. But the value of net output is influenced by many other factors than the actual work done within the plant. For example, any modification in the selling prices of the goods produced, whether due to market fluctuations, or to changes in the wage rates, the profits, etc., will modify the va^ue of net output, without these changes being necessarily related to actual changes in productivity; even more, an actual change in the physical output per man-hour may be partly concealed, when measuring production by the value of net output, by a corresponding change in the selling price ; such may be the case if, for instance, in order to sell more goods, the selling price is reduced when the prime cost is reduced, the benefit per unit remaining the same. Therefore, the value of net output appears to be a very unsatisfactory measure of output for the purpose of measuring absolute PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF OUTPUT 49 productivity. However, it will be shown in Chapter V that it may be of use as a substitute weighting factor in the computation of labour productivity or unit labour requirement indices. It seems that the computation of unit labour requirements may be more helpful to solve the problems raised by the existence of different degrees of integration. It has already been noted in Chapter I that the computation of man-hours expended per unit of production instead of output per man-hour had the advantage of lending itself to addition (or subtraction). When considering integrated plants, man-hours expended per unit can be computed for the various phases of the production process ; " productivity " in integrated and nonintegrated plants can then be compared for that part of the production process which is identical or covers the same scope in both plants. When computing labour productivity figures for an industry or a group of undertakings, such corrections are no longer possible. Establishments in any particular industry are not necessarily homogeneous with respect to the degree of integration (which may, furthermore, vary from year to year). Thus, although all the wage earners in a highly integrated establishment are consistently accounted for, the quantity statistics may be defective since part of the production—for consumption in further manufacture on the premises—is generally not reported. The quantities of the same goods produced for sale by less integrated establishments, however, are always reported. Consequently, a varying percentage of the total output of each product may be reported by each establishment, and hence by the whole industry, from year to year. In some instances, however, the subdivision of certain industries will give greater representation to various important manufacturing stages in the group production index; by grouping other industries, the effect of transfers of establishments from one industry to another may be somewhat mitigated. In such computations, therefore, the influence of the classification is obvious: the more detailed the classification, the more informative will the analysis be. But even for a single undertaking, variations in the ratio of output to labour may be influenced by modifications over a period of time in the distribution of work between semi-finished and finished goods: If an industry should, for example, devote a larger share of its manufacturing activity to the production of semi-finished goods at 50 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS certain times, and then complete them in subsequent periods, erratic behaviour would be noticed in the index of manpower utilisation if the latter is based on the output of the finished goods. Of course no data, on an industry-wide basis, which would reflect the more precise measurement of the productive process, are known to exist. In the absence of such information, the study of changes in manpower utilisation over a period of time would be enhanced if each statistic were to represent a sufficiently long production cycle to minimise the effect of production of partly processed goods and of the completion of goods already in process. Data covering periods of less than one year's time may be unduly influenced by the short-term changes in the productive process and thus be of little use in the analysis of manpower utilisation trends and fluctuations. 1 MEASURES BASED ON PRODUCTION PROCESSES The numerous difficulties raised by the differences from plant to plant of the product specifications, of the degree of integration, and in general of the differences in production lay-out has led to the study of the advantages of measuring unit labour requirements for a production process instead of for a product: An electric motor produced by firm A is a different product from an electric motor produced by firm B. The two firms may be manufacturing to meet an entirely different market, and even where the two products are practically identical, the ratio of " bought out " to manufactured components may vary widely. Comparative assessment of productivity on the basis of product is thus impossible, but the possibility of comparing productivity on the basis of process remains. Product may be defined as the item actually produced. It may be the industrial component from a machine shop, the finished drawing of a designer or a complete assembly such as a radio or a ship. Process may be defined as a specialised activity which may be used by companies making various products. The process of milling, for instance, is common to an automobile factory or a shipyard, to a toolroom or a machine shop. The process of internal transport is common to all factories and the process of typing to all offices. A variety of processes is almost always necessary to produce any product, and by switching attention from product to process a greater range of comparison becomes possible. Many processes are common to firms making totally different products, so that unlike factories can compare efficiencies. By the relation of the many processes necessary for the production of a particular product to a common standard, it may well be possible to arrive at some definite conclusion regarding the productivity of the firm as a whole, and eventually of the industry as a whole. This emphasis on processes rather than product is also more in line with the thinking of the departmental head or foreman. Indeed, one 1 Limitations of the Existing Productivity Measures and the Need for New Studies, op. cit. PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF OUTPUT 51 great advantage of process measurement is that standards of comparison can be set for use, not only by top management, but by all grades of supervisors, foremen and individual workers.1 The measurement of processes appears to offer a means of avoiding many of the difficulties involved in measurements based on products, particularly at the level of the plant. DURATION OF THE PRODUCTION PROCESS The duration of the production process has an important bearing on the measurement of productivity. With few exceptions, the production of a plant can only be measured in terms of completed goods, and it is often hardly possible to estimate the production of partly completed goods in terms of finished ones. If the process of production is short, counting finished goods only will not affect the measurement of labour productivity to any great extent. If the process of production takes a long time, however, measurements of productivity over short periods will be of little significance. In other words, there is some relation between the duration of the production process and the minimum period for which productivity measures may be computed. There is a danger, for instance, in issuing monthly figures for products involving six or 12 months' work, that a product will be related to an amount of labour which is not the amount contributed to the product in question. In this case productivity is not measured, and the figures issued as measuring labour productivity will be meaningless. It is fundamental that a certain output be related to the corresponding input of labour expended on it, and not to any other. It is for such reasons that the Works Progress Administration decided not to compute monthly indices of labour productivity: The meaning of monthly indices would not be clear because of the length of the production process: the reported output of any given month is attributable not merely to the employment reported for that month but also to labour expended in preceding months.2 1 J O I N T COMMITTEE OF T H E I N S T I T U T I O N OF P R O D U C T I O N E N G I N E E R S AND T H E I N S T I T U T E OF COST AND W O R K S A C C O U N T A N T S : Interim Report on Measurement of Productivity, London, Dec. 1949, p p . 4-5. 2 Production, Employment and Productivity in 69 Manufacturing tries, op. cit., P a r t I, footnote on p . 27. Indus- 52 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS Very obvious examples of the difficulties and dangers of adopting too short periods for the measurement of output with respect to the time required for completion of the goods were experienced during wartime in the United States. Emphasis in war industries was naturally placed on deliveries of finished goods. A satisfactory delivery rate, however, did not signify a satisfactory activity rate, on which future deliveries depended: 'Plane deliveries have frequently been affected by accidental factors which have little bearing on activity in assembly plants. In October 1942, 'plane deliveries fell 5 per cent, below the number for the preceding month. The decline reflected the bunching of deliveries on 30 September, many of which under normal circumstances would have been delivered in October, and the grouping of deliveries on 1 November, many of which would have been included in October shipments. One large manufacturer indicated that weather interfered with test flights so that 59 'planes completed in October were not accepted until 1 November. The total reported for December 1942 suggests other problems in interpretation. The figure for that month included several hundred 'planes which were accepted but went into the " pool " on the last day of the month. The 'planes in the " pool " may not be in flying condition; they may lack some part—a propeller, wheels, instrumentation or other essential items. 1 It is clear that when output (measured in terms of deliveries) is compared with monthly employment or man-hours, no correct measurement of labour productivity can be expected. But when yearly figures, even of deliveries, are compared with yearly employment, or man-hours expended during a year, the influence of the differences between deliveries and actual activity (which includes the production of partly finished goods) would be practically negligible. Hence, in most cases, monthly figures of productivity have little significance. This is particularly true of seasonal industries: in these industries also the year's output should be compared with the average employment of the year or with total man-hours expended in t h a t year. MEASUREMENT OF HETEROGENEOUS OUTPUTS When these problems—the problems raised by the definition of the product or the industry producing a single product, the different degrees of integration and the length of the production process—are overcome, the output, and therefore the productivity 1 I. H . S I E G E L : " T h e Concept of P r o d u c t i v e A c t i v i t y " , in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. X X X I X , N o s . 225-228, 1944, p p . 225-227. PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF OUTPUT 53 of labour for a certain product, may be measured without great difficulty. But when the productivity of labour is to be measured for more than one product, new difficulties arise as to how the output of a group of products is to be measured. This problem arises not only when entirely different products are considered, but even when different qualities of a product are studied. For example, should the production of a shoe factory be established on the number of pairs of shoes produced, whatever their price, or should the low-cost shoes be counted separately, i.e., should production be divided according to the price of the shoes, considered as representative of their quality ? The problems of measuring a heterogeneous output have always received considerable attention; such measures, when used in the computation of labour productivity, have special aspects : So long as they concern only one specific product at a time, statements regarding productivity remain relatively clear and unambiguous. No confusion of meaning is possible when it is said that the production of one thousand five-cent long-filler cigars by hand requires about 33 man-hours, or that the cement industry expended about four tenths of a man-hour to produce a barrel of cement just before the war. Difficulties begin to arise when statements about productivity cover more than one product. Most industries typically produce a variety of separate products. However, for most industries there is only one measure of labour input, a total for the industry. To measure productivity in such an industry, some composite measure of total production is obviously needed. The problem is to select a measure which is satisfactory for the purposes of computing productivity.1 The last point should be stressed: the measurement of heterogeneous products has already been studied many times, for instance when making production indices; the solution adopted is the use of certain weights. But the point to be examined here is whether the weights which are used in ordinary measurements of heterogeneous products, for the measurement of production per se, are suitable for labour productivity computations, or whether special weights should be used for the latter; if this should be the case, then the meaning of " productivity " data computed with the use of the ordinary production measures or indices should be studied. The questions involved in the determination of methods of measurement for the computation of total output composed of heterogeneous products do not in essentials differ from those of 1 " The Meaning of Pro'ductivity Indexes ", loc. cit. 54 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS the weighting of production indices calculated for the computation of productivity data, nor from ihose of the weighting of direct productivity indices. They will therefore be examined in the next chapter in direct relation with the computation of productivity data. CHAPTER V THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 1 For the measurement of labour productivity, as for all economic or statistical measurement, many formulae may be developed, according to the question to which an answer is sought* Even with ideal data, a number of plausible productivity indices may be constructed. Our choice is reduced to but one of these many alternatives only when the question asked about productivity changes is so specific as to be 2equivalent to a verbalisation of only one of the many possible indices. In order to analyse some of the various possible formulae and their meaning, a few general approaches will first be examined. The degree to which the available data lends itself to the different measures, the results obtained and their meaning when utilising substitute data will then be reviewed. SOME POSSIBLE APPROACHES Four approaches to the measurement of the variation of the productivity of labour are examined below; others could be envisaged. For reasons of convenience, this analysis refers to unit labour requirements and their variations rather than to output per man-hour; the analysis is based on comparison between periods, but could be applied without change to comparisons between regions of the same country. 1. A common approach is to compare, for the two periods under consideration, the total volume of labour required to produce the same complex of goods, under the conditions prevailing in each period as regards unit labour requirements. It is obvious that in this case the results will depend on the complex chosen. What complex should be chosen ? The choice 1 Though the argument of this chapter is stated in terms of the study of indices, it applies also to absolute measures of labour productivity. See Appendix I for a mathematical approach to the notions developed. 2 " The Meaning of Productivity Indexes ", loc. cit. 56 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS is related to the question to be answered ; in other words, the choice of a certain complex leads to results answering certain specific questions. Among the possible complexes of goods, two are of special interest: that representing the production composite of the base period (to which the current situation is compared), and that representing the production composite of the current period (which is to be compared to certain base standards). If computations are made on the basis of the base period production composite, the unit labour requirements index will measure the ratio of the labour that would have been spent in the current period to produce the base period complex of goods to the total labour actually expended in the base period. In the following analysis, this ratio will be termed formula I. If the computations are based on the current period production composite, the unit labour requirements index will indicate the ratio of the labour actually spent to produce the current complex of goods to the labour that would have been spent in the base period to produce the same complex. In the following analysis, this ratio will be termed formula II. 2. A second approach is to consider that the variations of the unit labour requirements for a certain production composite should be an average of individual indices of unit labour requirements. In this case, the index of each current unit labour requirement as compared to the base period unit labour requirement is computed for each product, undertaking or industry; the results are then grouped in an average, which may be an arithmetic mean or a weighted average; the weights can be chosen to represent the relative importance of each undertaking, product or industry in the total production composite chosen, on the basis of total labour expended, gross or net value of production, or any other factor. Evidently, the results obtained in the computations will depend upon the weights used. In particular, if the weights chosen correspond to the amount of labour expended during the base period for the production of each product, undertaking or industry, the results will be the same as for formula I. A more complicated system of weights 1 would lead to the results obtained with formula II. 1 These weights would be the labour that would have been expended to produce the current period output of each product, undertaking or industry with the individual unit labour requirements of the base period. See Appendix I. THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 57 3. A third approach is to compare the average unit labour requirements needed in the current period in order to produce the current period complex of goods with the average unit labour requirements needed in the base period to produce the base period complex, the averages for each period being computed as ratios of the total labour expended to the total production. This will involve a measure of total production for heterogeneous outputs, and thus the use of weights for the computation of these total productions. The weights used to measure the current and the base period production should be identical; if this were not the case, even when both the individual unit labour requirements and the output of the various goods remained unchanged, the unit labour requirements index would not be equal to 1. This approach yields results identical with those obtained in the first approach, with either formula I or formula II, when the weights chosen are either the individual unit labour requirements of the base period or those of the current period (see Appendix I). 4. Finally, a very common approach to labour productivity or unit labour requirement measures is to relate the variations of the total labour expended in each period to the variation in the total output of each period; or, in other words, to compute the ratio of an index of labour to an index of production. Notwithstanding the apparent differences, this approach does not differ from the preceding one. Thus, the results will again depend upon the weights chosen; when they are the individual unit labour requirements of one of the periods compared, the results are the same as with formula I or formula II. THE TWO GENERAL CONCEPTS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY The preceding analysis shows that measurements of labour productivity may be extremely diverse. Different results will be obtained for the same conditions, according to the approach used. But the types of formula that may be conceived can be sorted into two categories, corresponding to the two different basic concepts mentioned in Chapter I. In the first concept, labour productivity is considered as a specific characteristic of the product, undertaking or industry for which it is measured; in this case, averages for a group of components should remain unchanged if the individual productivity for each component remains unchanged. 58 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS The two first approaches envisagea correspond to this concept; if the unit labour requirements of the current period are the same as those of the base period, the resulting measure will indicate no change in the average unit labour requirements for the group of components studied. In the second concept, labour productivity is considered in relation to the relative importance in the group of the product, undertaking or industry for which it is computed ; in this concept, averages for a group of components need not remain unchanged, even if the individual productivity for each component remains unchanged; if some of the products, undertakings or industries forming part of the group studied have increased or diminished their importance within the group, although each unit labour requirement has not changed, the index of unit labour requirements for the group will not be equal to 1. The two last approaches examined correspond to this concept. In these approaches, it is only when the relative importance of each component is measured in terms of unit labour requirements that the unit labour requirement index for the group will indicate no change when each individual unit labour requirement has remained the same but the relative importance of each component has varied. I t will be shown in the course of this chapter how computations intended to be made on the basis of the first concept (and more particularly on. the basis of formula I or formula II) are shifted to the second concept, owing to lack of the necessary data, by the use of substitute data. The theoretical but simple example given in table VI illustrates the distinctions between the two concepts. It is assumed that the two plants A and B are manufacturing identical products. In spite of productivity increases in both plants, the over-all productivity declined. In one sense, this decline in productivity is real, inasmuch as in the second year a larger proportion of the total product was produced at a lower level of productivity than in the first year. In another sense, however, the decline in the average is misleading, inasmuch as it fails to indicate that productivity increased in both plants—perhaps as a result of improvements in production techniques. 1 If the computations of unit labour requirements for the two plants together had been based on an average weighted with unit labour requirements—that is according to formula I or Unemployment and Increasing Productivity, op. cit. THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 59 formula II—instead of on the ratio of total labour expended as compared to the ratio of total production (computed with weights equal to 1), the results would have been quite different: formula I TABLE VI. INFLUENCE OF WEIGHTING ON PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENTS Year Plant Indices First Second 2,000 1,000 2,100 1,000 105 100 2.00 0.50 2.10 0.48 105.0 96.0 Employment 2,000 2,000 3,100 3,000 155 150 Labour productivity . . Unit labour requirements 1.00 1.00 1.03 0.97 103.2 97.0 4,000 3,000 5,200 4,000 130 1.33 0.75 1.30 0.77 97.7 102.6 Plant A Production Employment Labour productivity . . Unit labour requirements Plant B Total, both plants Production Employment Labour productivity . . Unit labour requirements 133 Source : Unemployment and Increasing Productivity, op. cit. would yield a unit labour requirement index of 96.3; formula II, an index of 96.4. This example illustrates clearly the difference between the two general concepts of labour productivity. If it is intended to consider the latter as a characteristic specific of each product, undertaking or industry, then the computation of the labour productivity of a group of undertakings should be made so that the shifts in the relative importance of each component in the total output will not influence the results of the computation ; if, on the other hand, it is considered that such shifts are part and parcel of the variations in labour productivity, the measurements should be made to allow for the influence of such variations, as in this example. 60 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS The Differences Between Formulae I and II The first concept—the measurement of variations in labour productivity considered as a specific item—has been widely used by those who have dealt in detail with the measurement of labour productivity in a group of industries. In particular, the Works Progress Administration studies for the period 1919 to 1936 were entirely based on this concept. But even so, a choice must be made between the remaining possible formulae, and more specially between formula I and formula II. Each of these formulae has specific advantages: The use of a base-year composite has greater significance under relatively stable conditions of production and is usually more appropriate in dealing with relatively short periods of time ; it has the advantage of permitting comparisons between any two years, since the changes in the required volume of labour in each year are measured relatively to the same base-year composite. The use of a changing composite does not theoretically permit year-to-year comparisons and can only be used to measure the change between the base year and any other year. Such an index has analytical value particularly in periods of major shifts in the composition of production, and is usually more suitable for studying relatively long periods.1 Table VII, which is taken from the Works Progress Administration report, illustrates the different results obtained by using formula I (A = indices with base-year man-hour weights) and formula II (B = indices with changing man-hour weights). Use of Substitute Weights The computation of data on the basis of formula I or II involves two different sets of measurements. In each case, the computation requires the measurement of— (a) the total labour expended to produce the complex of one of the periods with the unit labour requirements of t h a t period ; (b) the total labour required to produce the complex of one of the periods with the unit labour requirements of the other period. The first set of measurements is relatively easy to obtain, since it merely represents the measurement of the total labour actually expended in one of the periods; for the second set, however, it is 1 Production, Employment tries, op. cit., p. 13. and Productivity in 59 Manufacturing Indus- THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY TABLE VII. COMBINED INDICES ( 1 9 2 9 = 61 1 0 0 ) OF PRODUCTION, EMPLOYMENT, MAN-HOURS, AND PRODUCTIVITY FOR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, 1919-1936 1 Production Year Employment M anil ours Output Per wage earner A Per man-hour B A B A B 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 98.4 100.5 78.8 91.7 100.7 99.9 100.5 75.9 91.5 100.7 63.4 67.3 54.3 70.4 81.7 69.0 72.4 58.6 73.3 83.4 64.4 67.0 68.9 76.8 81.1 70.1 72.0 74.4 79.9 82.8 63.5 67.0 71.5 76.9 81.1 69.1 72.0 77.2 80.1 82.8 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 94.8 98.2 98.8 95.6 96.3 92.1 97.5 98.7 95.7 96.0 77.4 86.1 90.2 88.5 93.0 78.8 87.1 90.7 89.2 93.3 81.6 87.7 91.3 92.6 96.6 83.1 88.7 91.8 93.3 96.9 84.0 88.3 91.4 92.5 96.9 85.6 89.3 91.9 93.2 97.2 1929 1930 1931 1932 100.0 86.3 73.2 64.4 100.0 80.1 65.2 51.8 100.0 80.8 68.0 53.4 100.0 81.0 69.3 55.8 100.0 93.6 92.9 82.9 100.0 93.9 94.7 86.6 100.0 100.9 104.3 103.1 100.0 101.1 106.3 107.7 1933 1934 1935 1936 72.6 84.0 86.9 90.9 57.7 60.5 65.7 73.3 62.1 67.1 77.9 89.3 65.5 68.7 80.4 90.8 85.5 79.9 89.6 98.2 90.2 81.8 92.5 99.9 107.6 110.9 118.6 121.8 113.5 113.6 122.4 123.9 i For many industries data are lacking for some of the years of the period 1919-1936 The index numbers were therefore constructed by chaining links for identical industries. necessary to have the individual unit labour requirements of either the base or the current period, according to the formula used. Frequently, estimates of such data are not available, even for a few products: In general, although fairly detailed production data can be obtained, the available employment statistics refer to workers engaged in the manufacture of aggregates of more or less related products. Consequently, the productivity index can in almost every instance be constructed only as the quotient of a production index for a group of products and the corresponding labour index.1 Indeed, formulae I and II can be modified so as to represent the ratio of an index of total labour to an index of production, the 1 Production, Employment tries, op. cit., P a r t I, p . 20. 5 and Productivity in 59 Manufacturing Indus 62 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS production of the current and the base periods being weighted with the individual unit labour requirements of either the base period or the current period. They will then be comparable with the formulae corresponding to the third and fourth approaches, with special weights, that is, unit labour requirements. But the lack of data on unit labour requirements is such, especially when it is desired to compute labour productivity figures for long periods in the past and for an important number of industries, that production indices with such weights can seldom be computed. Substitute weights are therefore used. What are the possible substitute weights, and what are their drawbacks ? Had a choice been afforded by the available statistics, the substitute weights would have been preferred in the following order, which probably represents the relative likelihood of their proportionality to unit labour requirements: (1) labour cost per unit; (2) value added per unit; (3) value per unit; and (4) price. Labour cost per unit seems to be a satisfactory substitute, since it is equivalent to labour time per unit translated into value terms. Its use implies that the average hourly earnings for all the workers engaged in the manufacture of any product of an industry are the same as for all the workers making any other product of that industry. Value added per unit is somewhat further removed from unit labour requirements. It has, however, a fairly high labour-cost content and also does not include raw-material costs. It is particularly appropriate for (a) industries with establishments of varying degrees of integration reporting their output in full (for sale, interplant transfer, and consumption on the premises), and (b) industries making products whose raw-material costs differ considerably. With the exception of prices, unit values are farthest removed from unit labour requirements. In addition to labour cost, unit value includes cost of raw materials, salaries, profits, rents, interest, depreciation charges, insurance, etc. Price includes not only these factors but also transportation and handling costs, discounts, etc. Since value weights were used predominantly, an attempt was made to test their proportionality to the preferred labour weights. Usually the comparison could be made for only a few products classified otherwise than in the National Research Project index; frequently the comparative weights depended upon crude estimates which detract from the conclusiveness of the test. In all, comparisons of different weighting systems or indexes embodying them were made for 11 industries. In several instances, the value weights were found to be fairly proportional to the preferred weights; even where they were not, the indexes based on the two sets of weights were similar. The reason may be that any weighting system would have little influence in the index for an industry where one product dominates, where the several products have the same movement, where the dispersion of the weights is small, THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 63 or where the number of products is large. It appears from experiments made in the course of the derivation of the National Research Project measures, furthermore, that weighted indexes of the same scope but dissimilar degrees of detail frequently have the same general movement and that unweighted indexes, which are tantamount to relatives of but one product, frequently exhibit the same general movement as weighted measures. These considerations lead us to believe that the substitution of unit-value for unit-labour requirement weights results in satisfactory production measures for most of the industries. It should not be inferred that the problems of weighting and classification may therefore be neglected. On the contrary, the year-to-year differ: enees in magnitude and direction may be sufficient to preclude the use of indexes based on less detailed classifications for the measurement of short-term changes in production "and productivity. 1 Another analysis of possible substitute weights was made by D. Evans: Those who construct production indexes to be used in measuring productivity generally substitute other weighting factors more or less related to unit labour requirements. Unit labour costs are regarded as a first approximation, since they will be proportional to unit labour requirements if average hourly earnings in the production of the several goods considered are the same. These weights are also seldom available, so value added by manufacture per unit of product, if it is available, may be used as a second approximation. In this case, the additional assumption is made that wages constitute the same proportion of value added by manufacture for each of the products. Unit value is the next step in the line of approximations; the validity of its use depends, in addition to all prior assumptions, on the constancy from product to product of the ratio between value and value added. Unit value is probably the most commonly used weighting factor since it is frequently available for the more important products of an industry from the census of manufactures. When unit values are lacking, recourse may be had to wholesale prices as weights. These, of course, will be influenced by the additional factor of distribution costs. It thus comes about that production indexes constructed for measuring productivity changes are frequently like indexes constructed for measuring production per se; the latter often are of the aggregative form and also embody pecuniary weights, though by choice rather than necessity. The Works Progress Administration (National Research Project) undertook, in the course of constructing its indexes, to test approximative methods wherever possible. The opportunities were few and the tests by no means definitive. The results indicated that approximative indexes were adequate over long periods but not so trustworthy for year-to-year changes. In extreme instances, the unit labour requirements may tend to be inversely related to the substitute weights. In such cases, the derived productivity index may even lie outside the range of the productivity relatives for the individual products. No " directly " computed productivity index would give such a result, for 1 Production, Employment and Productivity tries, op. cit., P a r t I, p p . 38-40. in 59 Manufacturing Indus- 64 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS such an index is always equivalent to an average of the productivity relatives for the individual products. 1 An example of the differences in unit labour requirements indices derived from production indices constructed with value and man-hour weights was given in the Works Progress Administration report. 2 This example, which refers to the United States cigar and cigarette industries for the period 1919-1936, is reproduced in table VIII below. TABLE VIII. INFLUENCE OF VARIOUS WEIGHTS ON INDICES OF UNIT LABOUR REQUIREMENTS Index of unit labour requirements (1929 = 100) Cigars and cigarettes combined Year Cigars Cigarettes Using value weights Using man-hour weights 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 122.9 110.0 125.9 123.7 121.7 323.3 348.2 259.2 227.4 182.4 222.0 233.1 214.6 200.5 176.4 150.8 143.2 144.3 138.1 130.1 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 116.4 116.1 109.8 112.5 109.2 164.5 145.7 123.8 129.4 129.7 158.2 144.9 128.1 127.3 117.8 123.1 120.3 111.7 114.8 112.1 1929 1930 1931 1932 100.0 101.5 86.7 95.4 100.0 95.0 92.6 89.9 100.0 94.5 80.2 81.3 100.0 100.7 87.6 94.6 1933 1934 1935 1936 88.2 79.2 66.5 63.9 81.6 98.3 88.6 73.3 70.9 64.3 52.8 47.9 87.3 81.9 69.6 65.2 In this table the production index for cigars and cigarettes with man-hour weights was constructed so that the measure of unit labour requirements obtained by dividing this production index into relatives of man-hours would indicate the volume of labour required to produce the 1929 quantities of cigars and cigarettes in each year as compared 1 2 " The Meaning of Productivity Indexes ", loc. cit., p. 107. Production, Employment and Productivity in 59 Manufacturing tries, op. cit., p. 7. Indus- THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 65 with the volume of labour actually utilised in 1929. The index with value weights is of the same form. The index of average unit labour requirements for the two industries combined derived from a production index with value weights is higher in 1926 than the unit labour requirements index for either industry; after 1929 the index of average unit labour requirements for both industries is lower than that for either. The index of production with value weights results in a. measure of unit labour requirements which understates the amount of labour required after 1929 to produce the 1929 volume of cigars and cigarettes. On the other hand, the unit labour requirements index obtained from the production index with man-hour weights measures the percentage of the labour time utilised in 1929 that would have been required in any year to produce the 1929 output. 1 It is clear from these various statements and from the above example that the substitute weights are not proportional, in most cases, to the unit labour requirement weights. The utilisation of substitute weights corresponds in fact to a shift from the first to the second concept of labour.productivity, as indicated above; when such substitute weights are used, formulae I and II are transformed into those corresponding to the third and fourth approaches. Influence of Changes in the Composition of the Production It can easily be shown that the substitution of weights such as value added per unit, price, etc., for unit labour requirement weights {i.e., the use of formulae corresponding to the second concept) introduces in the indices an additional factor related directly to the change in the composition of the production (see Appendix I). In fact, an author already quoted has computed the separate effects of the combined variations due merely to changes in the unit labour requirements of each industry over a period of time and of the changes which occurred in the composition of the production on a somewhat similar basis; the results of these computations were summarised as follows: Alterations in the industrial composition of output did have substantial influence on some of the group employment-output ratios, in several instances outweighing the effect of changes in the employmentoutput ratios of the component industries. For the tobacco products group the findings are particularly striking: in three periods half or more of the decline in wage earners per unit was accounted for by the 1 Idem, pp. 6-7. 66 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS rapid rise of cigarette manufacture at the expense of the industries producing cigars and smoking and chewing tobacco. The cigarette industry employs relatively few workers per $10,000 of products: the industries making cigars and other tobacco products, which require the labour of many more workers for the same dollar amount of output, failed to raise their levels of production from 1899 to 1937. And in the case of another industry, transportation equipment, virtually the entire decline of 12 per cent, in wage earners per unit from 1899 to 1909 is attributable to the increased importance of automobiles, rather than to any reduction in the employment-output ratios of the individual industries making up the group. The average change in labour per unit in the component industries was uniformly of the same sign as the change in the ratio for the group. This was not true of those changes in a group's unit labour consumption that were caused by shifts in the composition of group output. These shifts sometimes acted as a counterforce, making the decline in the group ratio less steep than it would have been if the composition of output had remained constant. In the food group, for example, workers per unit dropped 22 per cent, from 1899 to 1937. During this period the constituent food industries actually cut labour per unit by as much as 47 per cent, on the average, but at the same time several of those with large unit labour requirements increased their shares in the group's output, causing a rise of 26 per cent, in workers per unit of output for the group as a whole. The 22 per cent, decline, then, is the net result (rounded off) of a drop of 47 per cent, and an increase of 26 per cent. A similar situation is found in the transportation equipment group for the same period. During the 38 years the average decline in employment per unit for the group was 63 per cent., a reflection not only of the average decline in the employment-output ratios of the various transportation equipment industries, but also of the development of the motor car at the expense of other means of transportation. The decline of 63 per cent, in workers per unit of transport equipment, though large, ranks the group only in third place in this respect; it follows tobacco and petroleum products, in which the corresponding changes in employment per unit of product between 1899 and 1937 were 81 and 74 per cent, respectively. If the effect of the shift in the relative importance of motor cars were excluded, however, the average decline in employment per unit in the transport equipment group would be 94 per cent., much larger than the corresponding cut for any other group. 1 The results obtained (summarised in table IX) are computed with a formula t h a t may be considered as representative of the second concept of labour productivity; this table, when compared with table V I I 2 which is based on the first concept, will show the differences between the results, even for the large group of manufacturing industries. The differences between these results and those published by the Works Progress Administration are particularly striking for the years 1919 to 1921, 1923 to 1925, and 1927 (for output per 1 S. FABRICANT: op. cit., pp. 40-41. 2 See p. 61. THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 67 TABLE IX. PRODUCTIVITY OF LABOUR IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Output Year 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 Per wage earner Per manhour 61 65 69 80 79 80 86 90 93 96 100 98 98 86 90 85 96 104 100 94 109 57 63 69 76 75 79 84 88 89 96 100 102 105 102 108 111 120 120 117 120 131 Source: S. FABRICANT, op. cit. man-hour) and 1919, 1920, 1922, 1930, 1931, 1934 and 1936 (for output per man). These illustrations should be sufficient to show that the two general concepts of labour productivity are radically different, though neither is essentially better than the other. It is therefore important to choose between the two, and to state clearly which has been used in any computations that may be published. The theoretical advantage of an index computed on a fixed weight base lies in the fact that it measures but a single element of change to the exclusion of others. Yet the use of such a formula does not prevent the infusion of many factors, each of which changes in time, and several of which may be deemed to possess peculiar secular patterns of their own. So long as such influences are not eliminated, and the index reflects more than one element of the dynamic changes which take place in the economy, one can properly raise a question as to whether an index number, which would incorporate in its make-up the effect of all of the dynamic changes which affect the economy (i.e., include those which are responsible for the growth in the production of some goods and the decline in others) would be of greater significance for economic analysis. Such an index would reflect changes in the relative importance of the different products in the course of time, and 68 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS would permit the inclusion of new products as they make their appearance. An index number so constructed then could be described in terms of its significance as the index of manpower utilisation (measured in units of time input) needed at different times to produce a unit of physical output in accordance with specifications, efficiency and nature of economic organisation at each of the periods under consideration.1 Thus, labour productivity data obtained by the division of production figures (or indices) measured per se (that is, weighted by net value, price, etc.) by employment or labour figures (or indices) corresponds to the second (and larger) concept of productivity of labour, in which all factors of variation have their influence, including those due to changes in the composition of production. In particular, when the total output of the nation is compared to total employment or total man-hours expended, it is this, last concept t h a t is implicitly or explicitly considered, since gross national product, for instance, is a production complex weighted by value added. COMPARISON OF PRODUCTION INDICES WITH LABOUR INDICES Once it has been clearly shown to what concept the ratio of production indices to labour indices corresponds, some of the main drawbacks of this method of computing data concerning the productivity of labour may be examined. Limitations of available data or oí the possibilities of collecting data are such that production can seldom be measured in all branches of activity; this is also true of the measurement of labour. In addition, the scope of the possible production and labour indices often differs. Labour productivity indices are thus for the most part ratios of production indices computed for a limited number of industries (considered as measuring the variation of production in all the industries concerned) to labour indices computed for another limited group of industries (considered as measuring the variations of labour expended in all the industries concerned). If the limitations of data are too great (that is, if the number of industries for which data cannot be collected is too large), it might be preferable not to try to combine the individual indices and not to issue a " general " index: A proper question can be raised regarding the wisdom of combining data for a number of selected industries into one index of productivity, 1 Limitations of the Existing Productivity Measures and the Need for New Studies, op. cit. THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 69 if the makers of such a combined index do not believe that the combination has any independent significance. When this is done . . ., it invites misuse by those who, not having been cautioned, are prone to interpret such a combined index as one representative of industry as a whole.1 But production figures are sometimes not even available; output is often measured by figures relating to a basic material t h a t is found to vary, more or less, as the product does. In such cases—bread and bakery products and newspaper and periodical publishing are examples—the index of production should be regarded only as a rough approximation. In the absence of a directly constructed index of physical production, a production index may be derived by deflating a value series, such as value of shipments, by an appropriate price series. Such indirect procedures, while subject to several important sources of error, are nevertheless capable of indicating gross changes in productivity. Detection of changes of the order of 2 or 3 per cent., such as occur annually in many industries, is rarely possible by using such procedures, but changes of the dimensions of those t h a t occurred between 1930 and 1940 can be detected. Sometimes the method of computation of the production indices makes it impossible to use them in the computation of productivity data: A striking feature of the Federal Reserve indexes since the 1940 revision is the inclusion of adjusted man-hours to represent current activity in industries having a long production cycle, making numerous or heterogeneous goods, or manufacturing products which differ from their peacetime output. After the December 1941 revision, man-hours series accounted for 38 per cent., and after the October 1943 revision 41 per cent., of the base period aggregate for private manufacturing. Such series account for even greater percentages of aggregates for more recent periods and of aggregates which include Government manufacturing.2 Since the implicit assumption in the use of these data as production indices is that labour productivity remains unchanged, they cannot be used in the computation of indices of labour productivity. Even when production figures or indices are not computed in such a way as to make it impossible to use them, a number of divergencies between production indices and employment or man1 Limitations of the Existing Productivity Measures and the Need for New Studies, op. cit. 2 " The Concept of Productive Activity ", loc. cit., pp. 227-228. 70 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS hours indices computed for the purpose of measuring output, employment or man-hours render comparability between these two sets of data very doubtful. Differences in the Classification of Production and Labour Data Among the difficulties encountered in comparing production figures with labour figures, the allocation of undertakings to different groups in production and labour statistics should be noted. It often happens that in one country the classification utilised for production statistics differs from the one used in regrouping labour figures. For instance, if in production statistics the classification is based on the criteria of the goods produced, and on the other hand the classification used in the collection of labour statistics is based on the main raw material used, the data on production and on labour will not be comparable in scope; thus, in such cases, all undertakings making toys will be grouped in the toy industry, and all undertakings making musical instruments in musical instruments industry, while in the labour classification the undertakings making toys or musical instruments out of wood will be separated from those producing similar goods out of metal. It is true that such difficulties will not be encountered in the data obtained from censuses of manufactures, where production and labour figures are collected simultaneously. Proper comparability, however, is difficult to achieve even in this case, because of the form of the available production statistics and the fact that in the censuses the establishment is used as the basis for industry definition. The employment reported for an industry usually includes workers engaged in the manufacture of products not normally belonging to that industry; on the other hand, production statistics often include the output of primary products of one industry contributed by workers in other industries. In some instances it was possible to increase the degree of correspondence between the production and employment statistics by redefining a census industry so that it refers not to establishments but to the total output of the products normally belonging to it. In the instances where no adjustment could be made, it is very likely that a negligible net distortion results from the inclusion in the production index of primary output contributed by other industries and the inclusion in the employment index of the wage earners engaged in the manufacture of products not normally belonging to the industry in question.1 1 Production, Employment tries, op. cit., p. 25. and Productivity in 59 Manufacturing Indus- THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 71 In other words, in the classification of production and labour data taken from the censuses of manufactures, and still more in data collected separately (by different agencies, for instance) there are basic differences of allocation. When an undertaking produces entirely different products, the output of each may be allocated to each corresponding industry: if an automobile factory also produces wheelbarrows, these two outputs will be allocated, most commonly, to different groups in the industrial classification; b u t this separation is not feasible for labour data, and employment or man-hours expended in an establishment are practically always, in labour statistics, allocated to one industry, in general that of the main product of the establishment. Differences in the Size of the Undertakings on which Production and Labour Statistics are Based When data on production and labour are collected separately, there are often serious differences in the scope of the figures. The size of the undertakings from which data are collected may not be the same; thus, production indices may be based on the reports of establishments employing, say, more than 20 persons, and labour indices on the reports of establishments employing more than 10 persons. If, as will usually be the case, the productivity of labour of establishments employing between 10 and 20 persons varies differently from that of larger establishments, the productivity indices will be biased. Such considerations are still more important when the computation of absolute productivity figures (output per man-hour or unit labour requirements) is contemplated. The lack of comparability of production and employment data is even greater if the latter are obtained through labour force sample surveys or complete counts based on social security data, for instance, since the data include a number of persons (self-employed workers, persons employed in very small shops, etc.) for whom production figures may not in practice be collected. Obviously, the biases are reduced when data concerning both production and labour are obtained from censuses of manufactures; but the scope of the figures might vary in the course of time and introduce other biases : The scope of the census canvas was reduced slightly in 1921 by the exclusion of establishments whose annual output was valued at less than $5,000; the minimum in 1919 and earlier years was $500. Although the comparability between the production and labour indexes is maintained, a slight upward bias may be imparted to the productivity measures between 1919 and 1921, since the small establishments excluded in the latter year were probably less efficient than the average. That 72 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS the bias is negligible, however, is indicated by the fact that in 1919 establishments with products valued at $5,000 or more employed 99.5 per cent, of the reported number of wage earners in all manufacturing industries and accounted for 99.8 per cent, of the total value of products.1 Combination of Errors However carefully they are computed, production and labour indices do not represent the " true " trend of variations in production or labour; they are only approximations to the phenomenon they are meant to measure. The most important drawback in the computation of productivity indices by the division of production indices by labour indices is the fact that in such a division these approximations or errors are compounded. They may cancel each other out but they may also be added to each other; most likely the effects will vary, and the bias of the productivity index will be erratic and may finally be greater than the bias of either the production or the labour indices. A more detailed analysis of the production and labour indices would reveal other points of non-comparability. Therefore, it appears that great caution should be taken when computing, and especially when interpreting, labour productivity data obtained by the comparison of production and labour figures prepared primarily for the measure of production per se, or of employment or man-hours. Many of the deficiencies of such measurements disappear when use is made of production and employment (or man-hour) indices specially computed for the purpose of obtaining labour productivity data. The Works Progress Administration presented such computations in the past, and the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics uses this method for a number of industries. However, these special computations are far from removing all points of non-comparability; in addition, the data obtained are of a general character, and yield no information concerning the factors affecting labour productivity. In view of these difficulties, it may seem advisable to turn to special methods of measuring labour productivity, that is, special enquiries into the productivity of labour: this is particularly to be recommended if detailed international comparisons of labour productivity are to be made, since, as will be shown in Chapter VII, 1 Production, Employment and Productivity in 59 Manufacturing tries, op. cit., Part I, pp. 27-28. Indus- THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 73 the differences in the various national practices add to the difficulties encountered in national comparisons. Special enquiries into labour productivity will be studied in Chapter VI. A brief reference will first be made, however, to the measurement of labour productivity in non-manufacturing industries and for a nation as whole. MEASURES OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY IN NON-MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Scattered attempts have been made to measure labour productivity in non-manufacturing industries. Here, however, the special difficulties in the measurement of production mentioned in Chapter I are met with, in addition to the difficulties encountered in manufacturing industries. Some of the solutions adopted will be briefly reviewed here. In agriculture the United States Bureau of Agricultural Economics has developed two measurements of agricultural output which are used to derive separate measurements of productivity: farm output and gross farm production. Both these measurements have been developed by the use of annual production indices for the individual crops included. Gross farm production measures the total product of United States farm land and farm labour resources in each calendar year. The index records changes in the volume of production in both farm " producers' goods " and the output of products for human use. Total gross production thus includes all crop production, pasture grazed by all livestock, and the production of livestock and livestock products. Livestock and livestock production include only the " product added " by livestock in the conversion of feed and pasture into livestock and livestock products for human use and into farm-produced animal power. Farm-grown livestock feed and pasture are included in total crop production and are thus counted but once in arriving at total gross farm production. The index of farm output measures total gross farm production minus farm-produced power. Horse and mule feed and the products of farm labour and other resources used in raising and maintaining farm horses and mules are thus excluded. For the telephone industry, the production index in the United States is based on the weighted aggregate number of originating local and toll calls. The weights represent average revenue per local and per toll call in 1939. 74 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS The production index for the telegraph industry is based on series for: (1) domestic messages (land-line companies); (2) foreign messages (land-line companies); (3) domestic messages (oceancable companies); and (4) foreign messages (ocean-cable companies). Each series is weighted by the corresponding unit revenue in 1939. The employment series for these two industries is based on data adjusted to represent annual averages by the use of employment figures : The " production " indexes for the telephone and telegraph industries are obviously not measures of physical units produced, but rather measures of service performed for the public expressed in terms of the number of telephone calls made or the number of messages sent. The man-hours factor for each industry is an average measure of labourtime spent by all wage earners who have in any way contributed to the volume of service provided the public. The productivity measures, therefore, express the relationship between the volume of public service and labour-time expended by all wage earners, whether directly or indirectly engaged in providing that service.1 In the construction industry, some attempts to measure productivity have been made in particular branches. Thus, in concrete road building, productivity was measured by the average man-hours required per cubic yard of dirt moved, and by the average man-hours required per cubic yard of concrete road constructed. 2 Because so little is known of changes in productivity in the construction industry it is only natural that attempts to use indirect procedures, at least potentially capable of detecting large changes, have been frequent. In the case of the construction industry, such methods are not merely subject to large errors; they are impossible. A minimum requirement for such indirect methods would be the existence of three independently derived statistical series, the dollar volume of construction, construction costs or prices and man-hours expended. Until recently only one of these three, dollar volume of construction, has been available. Estimates of employment in the construction industry were derived from the dollar volume series by means of a series of key assumptions, one of which involved productivity assumptions. Indirect methods based on such data would merely reproduce the productivity assumptions used in deriving the employment estimates. More recently, estimates of construction employment have been derived from direct employer reports, so that this particular problem no longer exists. The series on construction costs or prices now available are still not independent, however. They are obtained, not on the basis of direct field reports, but synthetically from data on building materials prices, construction wage rates, and assumptions about productivity. Any 1 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OP LABOR, BUREAU OF LABOR STA- TISTICS: Major Sources of Productivity Information, W a s h i n g t o n , J u n e 1949, p . 44. 2 Monthly Labor Review, Nov. 1932, p p . 1027-1029. THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 75 estimates derived from these data will merely reproduce the productivity assumptions. Until further data on prices, physical volume or unit labour requirements, are obtained by direct field enumeration, even the roughest estimates of changes in construction productivity will be impossible.1 Thus, the main difficulty encountered in most non-manufacturing industries lies in the acquisition of a correct indicator of output, that is, a measure of what has actually been " produced ". The efforts made in this direction have not so far been very successful, especially in the measurement of the output of distribution or Government services. Detailed studies of this subject would be well worth while. LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY OF A NATION •Numerous studies have been undertaken to measure and to compare between various periods the " labour productivity of a 5 nation ". Such studies are generally based on gross national product per worker or man-hour, or on real national income per head. The preparation of such data is particularly difficult, and its interpretation involves many problems which lie outside the scope of this report. In particular, the reconciliation of the results of such studies with those obtained through the direct measurement of labour productivity implies a number of assumptions and estimates based on various data. It should be recalled t h a t such measures all refer to the second type of concept of productivity. Perhaps the best way of looking at productivity is to regard it as an indicator of the way the country is utilising its existing resources —its natural wealth, capital equipment, and manpower. Increased productivity means better utilisation of the country's productive forces ; it implies achieving a higher volume of production from a given volume of resources. The ability to sustain, let alone increase, the present standard of living depends almost entirely on increased productivity. This is the only way of providing exports in exchange for imports of foodstuffs and raw materials, of supplying industry with the necessary capital equipment and of securing for the people a flow of consumption goods as high if not higher than before the war.2 Gross national product designed to measure the total national output is an involved and complex concept, in which the pro1 J. CORNFIELD: Productivity in the Construction Industry, Productivity Panel Conference, Washington, Jan. 1948. 2 " Output a Head ", loc cit. Fourth 76 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS duction of an industry or branch of the economy is represented by the total value of its output, minus purchases from other sectors: In order to develop a measure approaching physical output for the economy, the Department of Commerce of the United States is currently engaged in computing gross national product in terms of 1939 prices, rather than in terms of current-year dollars. In general, the computation of gross national product in " real " terms is accomplished by deflating gross national product in current dollars for each minor expenditure segment by appropriate price series. Among the difficulties inherent in this approach are the lack of comparable price series for some industries, the conceptual difficulties of attempting to measure real output for such groups as the armed services, retail trade, etc., and problems involving the purchase of materials by one segment from another. 1 The observation of the variations in gross national product per worker or man-hour is of economic importance; however, these variations should not be interpreted as due solely to variations in productive efficiency: Gross national product per worker or per man-hour is not a measure of production efficiency, primarily because the measure is affected by changing patterns of production from year to year. For example, value added by manufacture per worker (which is numerically close to gross value added per worker) ranged in 1939 from less than $1,000 in various garment industries to more than $6,500 in the petroleum refining and chemicals industries. Thus, a shift in the production composite can substantially change the value of gross national product per worker (both in terms of current dollars or 1939 dollars) for the economy without any change in physical output per worker having occurred in any industry. 2 In addition, the practical difficulties encountered in the measures of gross national product or real national income are numerous. I t may be noted briefly t h a t : (a) the estimates for long periods are very inaccurate; (b) the deflation of the price element is hindered by the absence of accurate deflators; (c) special difficulties are met in estimating the value of the net product in service industries. From the point of view of the data concerning labour to be used in such measures, a number of problems of concept and of 1 2 Major Sources of Productivity Information, op. cit. Recent Productivity Trends and their Implications, op. cit. THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 77 measurement also arise: gross national product or real national income may be compared with total man-hours worked, total employed persons, total labour force or total population, according to the purpose of the calculation. For instance, when the increase of productivity of labour in a plant is due to a technical improvement which results in the dismissal of a number of workers, it might be considered that the nation's productivity has actually increased only if these dismissed workers have been reemployed ; otherwise their " productivity " is nil, and when combined with the increased productivity of the plant may show no improvement in the nation's productivity. This would be an argument in favour of considering the unemployed in the computation of a nation's productivity.1 In conclusion, it appears that the measure of the productivity of a nation is based on highly intricate concepts of total production (real national income, gross national product) and on general concepts of labour (total labour force, total employed) which all involve estimates and approximations in measures, and leave room for a number of diverse interpretations; the results of such computations are subject to wide margins of variability. Such broad calculations present great difficulties to any standardisation in the near future. 1 For further discussion of this point, see Unemployment and Increasing Productivity, op. cit. 6 CHAPTER VI SPECIAL ENQUIRIES PAST EXPERIENCE Labour productivity measures based on data collected for the measurement of production and employment per se present many drawbacks, as was seen in Chapter V. Even when, as in some industries, the available data can be corrected in order to furnish comparable estimates of production and employment, the measures of labour productivity so obtained are of a very general character, throwing no light on many important points, such as, for example, factors affecting labour productivity. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, in its attempt to compute labour productivity data for each of the manufacturing industries, with a view to obtaining eventually an index of labour productivity for manufacturing as a whole, has encountered various difficulties in the use of data collected through the census of manufactures and the current employment surveys ; in order to achieve its aims it has resorted to special enquiries. Such enquiries had already been undertaken in the United States as far back as 1898, when Carroll D. Wright, Commissioner of Labor of the United States, included in his 13th annual report a detailed study of labour productivity in all industries.1 Throughout the detailed tables of this report, the names of the operations necessary in the production of a unit were shown, and for each operation the following indications were given: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 1 the the the the the the the machine, implement or tool used; power used; number of persons necessary on one machine; number and sex of employees occupied; name of the occupation of each employee; age of each employee occupied; time expended by the employee; Hand and Machine Labor, op. cit. SPECIAL ENQUIRIES 79 (8) the rate of pay of the employee, per hour, day or week, as may be the case; (9) the labour cost. This study was a comparison of productivity or unit labour requirements according to two different methods of production, the " hand " method (in which simple tools such as the hammer, the chisel, the saw, etc., might be used) and the machine method. It provided for a very detailed analysis, permitting interpretations which no over-all measure would yield. Subsequently, and up to 1940, detailed studies for various industries were conducted by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the results were presented in a number of special bulletins giving statistics and analyses of changes in output per man-hour. These reports, developed from detailed data concerning industry, contained a wide variety of information concerning industrial techniques and processes. Among the topics included in a typical report were a history of the industry, a description of production methods for each major product, employment and wage figures, an analysis of technological change and its relation to labour displacement, output per man-hour and labour cost for machine and hand production methods. Figures were presented showing output per man-hour (or labour time per unit of output) for a number of products, classified according to process, geographic region, type of machine employed, etc. The conclusions obtained through such detailed enquiries proved to be remarkably interesting. As an illustration, extracts of conclusions reached in the study of the cigar manufacturing industry (conducted in 1935-1936) * are given in tables X and XI. Unfortunately, while extremely useful and instructive, these studies took a great deal of time, and only a limited number of them were conducted. The reports, issued after long delays, were of historical interest rather than of direct application; they did not always contain sufficient information to permit interpretation of the figures, and, above all, they were sporadic and covered only a few industries. After the second world war, the general interest in labour productivity strongly increased, and since available statistics on production and employment often proved to be insufficient, the 1 D. EVANS: Mechanisation and Productivity of Labor in the Cigar Manufacturing Industry, United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin No. 660. 80 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS United States Bureau of Labor Statistics undertook a new project —" direct productivity reports ". TABLE X. APPROXIMATE AMOUNTS OF LABOUR REQUIRED TO MAKE 1 , 0 0 0 FIVE-CENT CIGARS BY VARIOUS MANUFACTURING METHODS (UNITED STATES, 1935-1936) Number of man-hours Long-filler Short-filler Operation Handmade Four-operator cigar machine Machinebunched hand-rolled Two-operator cigar machine 1.41 1.64 25.19 1.96 1.41 1.64 9.55 1.96 1.41 1.64 19.64 1.96 1.41 1.64 5.58 1.96 . 0.36 0.66 2.16 0.36 0.16 0.88 0.36 0.66 2.16 0.36 0.16 0.88 Total, all above operations . . . 33.38 15.96 27.83 11.99 Leaf preparation . . . Stripping Making Packing Cellophaning and Miscellaneous labour x i Includes all labour not previously assigned departmentally (watchmen, elevator operators, cleaners, ofllce help, shipping clerks, electricians, nurses, maids, locker attendants, etc.). TABLE X I . OVER-ALL MAN-HOUR PRODUCTIVITY IN PLANTS MANUFACTURING FIVE-CENT CIGARS BY DIFFERENT METHODS 1 All plant labour Method of manufacture Four-operator machine-made, long-filler. . . Machine-bunched, hand-rolled, short-filler . Two-operator machine-made, short-filler . . i Computed from table X. Productivity, cigars per man-hour Productivity relative to hand-made long-filler cigars 30.0 62.7 35.9 83.4 1.00 2.09 1.20 2.78 SPECIAL ENQUIRIES 81 DIRECT PRODUCTIVITY REPORTS IN THE UNITED STATES The direct productivity reports are mainly designed to provide, for a specific industry, detailed statistics and supplementary information regarding the levels and trends of labour expended per unit of production; they are particularly useful in those industries for which such statistics could not previously be prepared, and where detailed data, not obtainable from published sources, are deemed to be essential. Preparation of the Survey The first step is a preliminary study of the industry. Using all available information (census of manufactures, industrial directories, telephone directories, technical books, publicity catalogues, bibliographies, etc.), a definition of the industry in terms of manufactured products may be established. This definition is based on practical considerations, and therefore does not always correspond to that used in the census of manufactures. As an example, for the electrical appliances industry, on the advice of the trade unions and the manufacturers, the survey is extended to include refrigerators, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, etc., products which are not covered by the definition of the industry used in the census of manufactures. The employers' associations and the trade unions are approached in order to secure the co-operation of the industry. (The surveys are conducted on an entirely voluntary basis.) These contacts indicate whether the survey is technically possible; for instance, the undertakings must keep adequate records; there must be a sufficient proportion of the products manufactured which remain comparable from one year to another; and, of course, the manufacturers must also be willing to co-operate. With the information collected on these points, and paying due attention to the estimated cost of the survey, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is in a position to make a decision as to the advisability of starting a survey. In July 1950, reports had already been issued or were about to be issued for the following industries: construction machinery; fertilisers; footwear; industrial equipment; leather; machine tools; men's dress shirts; soap and glycerine; cane sugar refining; electrical machinery; household electrical appliances; home radio receivers; metal forming equipment; mining machinery; railroad freight cars; and luggage. 82 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS The initial reports generally cover the period 1939 to 1947 or 1948, and are supplemented by reports furnishing yearly data for 1948 and 1949. The actual preparation of a survey begins with the choice of the products on which the survey will actually be based. This is done after consultation with management officials, employers' associations and other persons familiar with the industry. It is neither necessary nor, most of the time, even possible to include all products manufactured by the industry in the survey. Thus, for the machine tool industry, by taking 16 products more t h a n 80 per cent, of the total value of production of t h a t industry is accounted for. Products chosen as a basis of reporting are those with specifications typifying the industry's output with respect to type, size, complexity of design, method of fabrication and volume of production. Only relatively standardised items regularly produced are selected, since man-hour data pertaining to goods made to order generally represent a small segment of production and are not comparable from year to year. For example, the report on the radio industry stated: Information on man-hours required per unit of production was requested for 24 different types of radio receivers. These radios, classified in six general categories, were selected to represent the output of the industry in terms of value and units produced . . . Eight kinds of table model receivers, for example, were chosen to represent the range of table model sets produced by the industry . . . The selection of the 24 types of receivers was made with the assistance of management officials in the industry and the Radio Manufacturers' Association. Detailed specifications were drawn up for each of these items with respect to product characteristics such as type of power supply, number of tubes, and tuning bands. These specifications were sufficiently broad that the products of several manufacturers could be combined for the purpose of making a product index, yet narrow enough that man-hours would be reasonably comparable for the products of different establishments reported within each specification.1 Thus, the products included in the survey are not all those manufactured by the industry b u t only those t h a t are considered representative, and t h a t remain sufficiently comparable over a period of time. For instance, in the above-mentioned survey " the coverage excludes some products (such as radiotherapy machines, industrial electronic equipment, and short-wave receivers for amateur, police, and military use) because of their specialised 1 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT TICS: Home Radio Receivers OP L A B O R , B U R E A U (1939 to 1947), OF L A B O R May 1950, p . 4. STATIS- SPECIAL ENQUIRIES 83 nature and the lack of comparability for purposes of trend analyses ". The list of establishments manufacturing the specified products retained is then drawn up. When the industry is very concentrated, an attempt is made to secure data from all the establishments concerned. In most cases, however, only a sample is used. When the industry comprises a large number of establishments, the sample will contain, in general, all the large establishments and a selection of the smaller ones, the latter selection being made on the basis of scientific sampling. In practice, the coverage of the actual sample of establishments reporting differs from the initial list because there is always a certain proportion of manufacturers unable or unwilling to co-operate. When possible, establishments retained in the sample but not co-operating are replaced by establishments similar in size, method of production, etc. However, as the survey becomes established, the number of refusals decrease and more manufacturers find it possible and useful to maintain records which are suitable for reporting. Collection of Data A questionnaire is then prepared, intended for the manufacturer to fill in. The questionnaires vary in content from one survey to another, but they are drafted according to a general pattern. They are sometimes given a trial period with a few firms who are willing to co-operate, and then modified according to the suggestions considered useful. In addition to identification of the company and the plant, they usually ask for: (a) specifications of products to be reported; (b) output for each year or for representative production periods ; (c) total direct man-hours used in the manufacture of the output ; (d) total indirect man-hours used in the manufacture of the output ; (e) details concerning the methods used to compute the data furnished. Additional questions concerning plant capacity, prices, distribution of production according to production methods, mechanisation, etc., may occasionally be included. 84 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS These questionnaires are supplemented with detailed instructions to the manufacturer concerning the methods to be used in order to produce the data, in particular with respect to direct and indirect man-hours. Thus, the instructions on the questionnaire used in preparing the report on the production of home radio receivers indicate that " the classification of direct man-hours should include all factory man-hours involved in actual production of the models reported and included in the company's accounting procedure as direct labour cost " and that " the classification of indirect man-hours should include all man-hours in general factory and departmental overhead costs applied in the company's accounting procedure to the output of the model being reported. Exclude man-hours in general administration, office, engineering, and sales." Time devoted to sales, product development research and administration are generally excluded in order to eliminate areas of activities where considerable variation prevails among establishments in the same industry. Hours paid for but not worked (such as paid vacations, sick leave, call-in time, etc.) are also generally excluded. Direct man-hours are to be obtained on the basis of one of the three following methods: (1) Computations from records such as time tickets (this is the method preferred). (2) Conversion of direct labour cost data (available in dollars) to an estimate of direct man-hours by dividing the cost data by average hourly earning figures computed for all groups of direct workers employed in the production of the item. The establishments generally have available data on average hourly earnings, correctly weighted. In some questionnaires, information on the correct method of computation of these average hourly earnings is added to the instructions. (3) Estimates from standard cost accounting. Many firms establish yearly a standard budget, based on previous records, according to which they expect a certain number of working hours (the standard) to be expended per unit of production during the coming year. (The computations may also be on the basis of a standard cost of labour per unit of product.) In addition, the firm also computes periodically the number of hours actually spent (or the actual labour cost) in a production period for the production of a group of products, or for a department. SPECIAL ENQUIRIES 85 It is then possible to estimate the number of direct man-hours actually spent in the production of a given product by adjusting the standard hours for this product by the ratio of direct manhours actually expended (or the actual labour cost) for the production of a related group of products or of a department to the standard direct man-hours (or the corresponding standard labour cost) set out for that group of products or that department. Indirect man-hours may be estimated by the reporting establishment on the basis of any one of the methods described for obtaining direct man-hours; if, as is usually the case, data on indirect man-hours are available only for a group of products or for a department, estimates of the indirect man-hours expended on the product under consideration can be obtained by applying to the aggregate indirect man-hours the ratio of direct man-hours expended on the product to the direct man-hours expended on the aggregate production. Alternatively, estimates may be based on labour cost ratios. Field Agents An important feature of these direct enquiries into labour productivity is that the questionnaires are not sent by mail, but are presented to the firm by a field agent. The role of the field agent is essential. He visits the manufacturers at the beginning in order to secure their co-operation, and for this purpose he generally addresses himself to the president of the company. In a large measure the success or failure of a survey will depend on the ability of the field agent to convince the management of the usefulness of the enquiry. He will base his arguments, for example, on the necessity for the Government to know what is happening to productivity in general; or on the advantages for a co-operating undertaking to be able to compare its performance with the average performance of the other undertakings in the industry. Having secured co-operation, the field agent will present the questionnaire to the firm, and explain in detail the requirements and the methods of obtaining the information asked for; he will assist in obtaining the data from the records if requested by the manufacturer. He will also fill in a personal preliminary report according to a schedule drawn up by the central office. This report contains additional information on a great number of points intended to. help in the interpretation of the data and the determination of its 86 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS reliability; it includes plant identification, description of the product, and information concerning the types of records kept by the plant, the posts classified as direct labour and indirect labour, the coverage of man-hour data in relation to the various kinds of hours paid for but not worked, the degree of integration of the plant (purchased parts, contract work), etc. The questionnaire (of which three copies are established initially for each product manufactured by the establishment, one to be kept by the manufacturer, and the others to be sent directly to the central office) and the field agent's preliminary report are analysed in detail by the central office. One copy of the questionnaire is then returned with the comments of the central office to the field agent, who contacts tlie firm again in order to resolve any inconsistencies that may have appeared in the data collected and submits to the central office a final report, somewhat more detailed than the preliminary one, on the organisation, set-up, methods of production, employment conditions, changes in the design of the product, etc., of the establishment.1 Analysis and Publication After the major discrepancies have been so resolved, and the field agent's final reports have been received by the analyst in the central office, the latter is in a position to proceed to a final critical evaluation of the data collected. Among the problems he will have to deal with is that of the comparability of the products from year to year. No product remains absolutely constant from one year to another. Very often the changes may be disregarded, since they are merely in design, and do not affect the unit labour requirements to any significant extent. When, however, important changes have occurred, either through the accumulated effect of small changes over a period of years or, more usually, because of a major change at a definite time, corrections are made, for instance by using overlap periods and splicing values by the link relative method. If such corrections are not possible or are too debatable, the data will have to i e abandoned. Similar problems arise because of variations in plant integration; it may be that a plant previously manufacturing parts now 1 The field agents, who are highly trained officials, generally possessing an economic and technical background, have other duties relating to productivity statistics. They will answer any particular request for information, and of course will keep in touch with establishments they have surveyed, checking for instance that annual reports for periodical surveys are sent on time. SPECIAL ENQUIRIES 87 buys them from an outside establishment. Again, corrections are made, by link relative procedures, or, when data are available, by recomputing the past figures or the new ones on a comparable basis: for instance, by deducting from the unit labour requirements previously computed the labour required to manufacture the parts now bought from outside establishments. It is in such cases that the information contained in the field agent's reports will be essential. In addition, difficult cases will give rise to discussions with the field agent and, if necessary, with managers. The analyst will also visit a few plants of the industry on which he is writing a report in order to be in a better position to understand the main problems involved and to interpret the data correctly. Unit man-hour requirements are then computed for each product and each plant. With few exceptions (e.g., cane sugar refining) no absolute data on man-hours per unit of production are published. The data are normally transformed into indices, to show the trends over a period of years. These indices are computed as follows: (1) A product index is calculated for each product. This is the ratio of a weighted average of the unit labour requirements observed in the various establishments, for a given year, to the similarly weighted average for the base year. The weights used are the quantities of the product produced by each establishment in the base year (or sometimes in another year). (2) A product group index is then calculated for each group of products. This is a weighted average of all the product indices of the items in the group, the weight for each product index being the total hours of work expended in the total production of each product in the base period. These weights have generally to be estimated from various sources, since in general they are not available from the reports, the reporting establishments representing only a part of the total number of establishments; these estimates are frequently obtained by multiplying the total production of a particular product by the average unit labour requirements for the product as reported by the sample. (3) An industry index is finally computed. This is a weighted average of all product group indices, the weight for each product group index being the total number of hours of work expended in the base period in the total production of the group of products 88 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS represented by a product group index; these weights are also estimated. For the home radio receivers industry, for example, a product index will be computed for an " A.G.-D.G. power supply, four tubes plus one rectifier tube or selenium disc, one amplitude modulation band "*'; a product group index will be calculated for all table model radios, and the industry index will refer to all home radio receivers. Thus, it is clear that the computations are such that the indices are not affected by shifts of production from one product to another or one establishment to another. Any variation in the indexes must be interpreted in terms of factors affecting individual plants. The indexes would not be affected, for example, by a tendency for the industry's output to concentrate in the most efficient plants, although such a development would reduce the average number of man-hours required by the industry as a whole to turn out a given machine. The question whether or not production tends to concentrate in the plants with lowest man-hour requirements is not within the scope of this report.1 Of course, the above description corresponds to ideal conditions. In practice, it often happens that data are lacking for an establishment for one or more years (including the base year) or that estimates of total man-hours expended in the production of a given product are available only for a year other than the base year, etc. In such cases, various statistical techniques, and in particular link relative methods have to be used, inevitably introducing some deviations in the results. The computations are not confined to over-all indices. Indices of year-to-year trends are presented by type of factory labour for the industry as a whole (as represented by the composite of the reported items) and for individual products, processes or departments. Within the limits of available statistics, these studies provide data on average man-hoizr trends for groups of companies classified on the basis of geographic location, size of plant, method of production, utilisation of plant capacity, extent of technological change, type of wage payment plan, diversification of output and similar factors pertinent to the analysis of productivity. While no data are shown that might allow identification of individual plant figures, the trends of the indices of individual firms are sometimes given as an indication of their wide differences in behaviour. 1 UNITED STATES BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS: Monthly Labor Review, Vol. LXV, 1947, p. 188. SPECIAL ENQUIRIES 89 Supplementing these statistics, the surveys include extensive information relating to the dynamic influences affecting the levels of man-hours expended per unit. The trends are explained in terms of such factors as increases and decreases in the volume of production, different levels of capacity utilisation, changes in quality of product, product design modifications, abnormal shortages of raw materials, changing skills and efforts of management and labour, etc. CONCLUSIONS The direct enquiries into labour productivity, as at present conducted by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, do not seem as yet to have spread to any other country. However, in the United Kingdom, under the impulse given by the AngloAmerican Council on Productivity, some steps have been taken in this direction. For instance, the interim Report on the Measurement of Productivity issued by the Joint Committee of the Institution of Production Engineers and the Institute of Cost and Works Accountants in December 1949 indicates the broad outline of the practical action which is envisaged. The main feature of the study is the suggestion to measure labour productivity for production processes rather than for products. This point has already been developed in Chapter IV.1 It should be stressed that most of the difficulties involved in the comparability between production and labour figures or indices are avoided in direct enquiries. The chief advantage of these enquiries is that, in contrast to productivity indices based upon ordinary published data, they provide detailed information and facilitate realistic analysis of the factors affecting productivity trends. This approach is particularly useful in those industries (notably durable goods) which produce a heterogeneous variety of final products, and for which over-all indices do not always have much meaning. In addition, the detailed data collected permit comparisons between plants, and therefore this method of enquiry has a definite advantage in international comparisons. Moreover, in addition to computations made on the basis of fixed weights, as conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, computations could easily be made with changing production 1 See p. 50. 90 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS composites, or with weights taking into account the change in the composition of production. Therefore, these special enquiries enable the statistician to answer questions concerning the variation of labour productivity according to both concepts as defined in Chapter I. The main drawback to such enquiries is their cost: consultations with employers, workers and technicians, field operations and the interpretation of data by qualified officials involve considerable expense. It is also true that, owing to insufficiencies in the data collected, many estimates and corrections are necessary. But the need for such statistical treatment is not confined to special enquiries; estimates and corrections are similarly used for obtaining the basic data concerning production and employment which enter into the computation of over-all productivity indices. CHAPTER VII INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY The various countries of the world have been paying increased attention to the development of labour productivity data, because of the importance of such data in the elaboration of production and labour productivity policies. Studies have therefore been undertaken of the variations of the ratio of output to employment or man-hours, and the comparisons of such ratios or their reciprocals, man-hours expended per unit of production, between plants of different size, location, production processes, etc., producing the same product. But differences in labour productivity within an industry or between different industries in the same country have often appeared to be smaller than over-all differences with other countries. Therefore, the study of such over-all differences has been—especially since the second world war—of particular concern to countries which find difficulties in exporting as much as they must import, or to countries envisaging a new development in industrialisation. Thus, international comparisons have been attempted, either on a somewhat rough basis or through extensive and detailed computations, as in the basic work of L. Rostas on comparative productivity in British and United States industry 1, which includes an analysis of the meaning, methods and limitations of international comparisons of labour productivity. In general, international comparisons of labour productivity will be based on the physical output (per head or per man-hour) of a given product, or a group of similar products (shoes of different quality, for example) ; but in some cases, use has been made of the value of net output (per head or per man-hour) of an industry or a group of industries; this latter method involves, besides other difficulties, the conversion of such net values into the same monetary unit. 1 Comparative Productivity in British and American Industry, op. cit. 92 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS The data are often obtained from censuses of manufactures; another method is to collect data through special enquiries in each industry, as was done in the Piatt Report in the United Kingdom.1 Whatever the method adopted, numerous difficulties will be encountered in such comparisons. Many of the problems are identical with or similar to those arising in national computations ; others, such as the problem of exchange rates to be used in the conversion of values of net output, are special to international comparisons. In the present chapter, therefore, the particular impact on international comparisons of the problems examined in the previous chapters is briefly reviewed and the special problems arising in international comparisons are analysed in more detail. PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OP LABOUR The various difficulties outlined in Chapter III in the measurement of labour (whether through employment or man-hours) also arise in international comparisons, but in a more acute form. (a) In national statistics, the definition of direct and indirect labour varies according to the administration collecting the data; the divergencies of concepts on this point between the various countries are much greater than in any one country. No comparability can be expected between the various national existing concepts of direct and indirect labour, production workers, wage earners or salaried employees. For instance, while in one country the concept of " production workers " will exclude supervisory personnel, maintenance workers, etc., in other countries these groups will be included. In some countries wage earners are distinguished from salaried employees merely on the basis of their system of remuneration (pay periods of a month or of less than a month). In others, the distinction is based on the kind of work performed : wage earners include production process operators, maintenance workers, etc. ; salaried employees include shipping and accounting clerks, salesmen, etc. In both cases the allocation of supervisory personnel varies. To an unspecified extent the census employment figures include persons employed not in the manufacturing process proper, but in 1 MINISTRY OF PRODUCTION: Report of the Cotton Textile Mission to the united States of America, March-April 1944. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 93 repair and construction work, transport or generating electricity. This factor affects the margin of error in comparisons only in so far as the proportion of such people to manufacturing employees differs in the two countries—a question on which hardly any factual information is available.1 Therefore, little comparability as between countries can be expected between figures obtained for " output per wage earner " or " man-hours of direct labour expended per unit of production " computed on such a basis. Even the definition of total employment lacks comparability between the various countries. The Sixth International Conference of Labour Statisticians has made recommendations concerning the definition of total civilian labour force, employed persons, etc., in order to remedy these discrepancies. International definitions of wage earners and salaried employees, production workers, direct and indirect labour, however, remain to be established. (b) Differences in the content of the concept of man-hours are equally wide; many conflicting interpretations are given to the various notions noted in Chapter III of man-hours paid, man-hours actually worked, etc. Here again, standard definitions are lacking and therefore comparison is difficult. Moreover— when making productivity comparisons, whether in time or internationally, one further point has to be considered. Shorter hours of work may be due to unemployment and the spreading of work over a larger number of workers ; or they may mean a genuinely shorter working week, in the sense that the workers take part of their real earnings in increased leisure. This differentiation is especially important owing to the prima facie causal relationship between the number of hours worked and output per man-hour. A number of studies made by industrial psychologists have indicated that unduly long hours of work reduce output; at the same time it is held that the relatively higher output per man-hour in the United States is made possible to some extent by shorter working hours, or in other words that the mass production methods employed in the United States could not be operated permanently by operatives working long hours. If this argument is true, and it requires careful investigation, it would mean that the United States and the United Kingdom per man comparisons are perhaps more realistic than per man-hour comparisons, and further that it would not be possible in Britain both to have higher output as well as maintaining longer working hours, since higher output per man-hour could be achieved only by a shorter working week.2 (c) Another important point is the much greater differences in the composition of the labour force in sex, age, skill, etc., be1 2 7 Comparative Productivity Idem, p p . 26-27. in British and American Industry, op. cit., p. 20. 94 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS tween various countries than between two periods of comparison in one country or between labour employed in undertakings in the same industry in one country. For instance, in 1938-1939— 41 per cent, of the United States population was in the labour force, against 47 per cent, in the United Kingdom. The reasons for this are the higher proportion of persons under 16 in the United States (27 per cent, against 23 per cent.) and the lower proportion occupied in any class. The difference in the proportion occupied is most marked in the groups aged 16 to 19 and to a lesser extent 20 to 29. The differences can be attributed almost exclusively to more extensive education in the United States. Applying the United Kingdom percentages to the United States population, the United States labour force is deficient, according to British standards, by 6.5 million workers aged 16-64 (2.5 million men and 4.0 million women). Of these, 3.5 million are aged 16-19, 2.2 million aged 20-29 (almost all near 20) and only 0.8 million above the age of university graduation. The composition of the two labour forces is also different, the proportion of men to women being higher in the United States, and the proportion of juveniles to adults lower.1 Such differences, which correspond to differences in the effort t h a t labour can contribute, may have a definite influence on productivity data, and therefore on comparisons. In international comparisons, as in the case of national statistics, attempts have been made to overcome them b y weighting the different types of labour: It would lead to an important refinement of our methods if, instead of aggregating all operatives without distinction, a weighted figure, expressed in " men units ", could be calculated. The method usually available for weighting would be relative wage rates or hourly earnings which would express broadly the differences between potential efforts. For obvious reasons this is not always the case, especially in a country like Britain with fairly strong delimitations of different kinds of jobs. Unfortunately, data are not fully available for making such calculations. 2 L. Rostas used the ratio of 6/10 for women (i.e., counting each woman worker as 0.6 " equivalent man "). Using this ratio, the results of the productivity comparisons between the United Kingdom and the United States would be about 10 per cent, less favourable to the United States; in view of the fact that the United States labour productivity in the selected manufacturing industries for 1935-1939 was estimated as more than 2.5 times t h a t of the United Kingdom, the adjustment would not have 1 " T h e P r o d u c t i v i t y of L a b o u r : I t s Concept and M e a s u r e m e n t " , loc. cit., p p . 211-212. 2 Comparative Productivity in British and American Industry, op. cit., p . 23. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 95 brought any appreciable change in the conclusions. But such adjustments might be relatively of much greater importance when comparing countries where the difference in labour productivity is less marked than between the United States and the United Kingdom (between Germany and the United Kingdom, for instance). T. Barna used weights to take into account not only the sex but also the age composition of the labour force.1 The following weights were assumed: persons under 16, one fifth; 16 to 19, one half; 20 to 64, men, one; 20 to 64, women, two thirds; 65 and over, men, two thirds; 65 and over, women, one half. It is clear that such scales are arbitrary; if they are based on wages, for instance, it may be noted that in many countries post-war wages for women have increased considerably more than those of men, while the ratio of output has presumably remained unchanged. Physical effort could serve as a basis of such scales only in purely manual jobs, and would not be relevant in most of the skilled ones. Similar remarks could be made for any of the weights that have been proposed for the conversion of the various kinds of labour into a homogeneous unit. PROBLEMS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF PRODUCTION As in the measurement of employment or man-hours, the difficulties encountered when measuring output in a country arise in a more acute form in international comparisons. (a) The differences in product specifications are greater than when national comparisons are undertaken: In our comparisons we compare the direct labour requirements needed to produce the unit quantity of output, whether a ton of cement or a pound of yarn, and therefore we neglect the quality factor. In some cases, it is possible to account for some of the measurable aspects of the quality factor, such as the differences in count of yarn or horsepower of cars, but it is never possible to account for all the quality differences due to variety, size, shape, durability and style. While it is important to bear in mind the importance of the quality factor in productivity comparisons, it would be mistaken to regard low physical output necessarily as a mark of high quality. a . . . But even beyond such quality differences, which can be easily observed and appreciated by the layman, there are further differences in " technical qualities " of apparently similar products. These " technical differences " may take the form of differences in chemical, physical 1 2 " The Productivity of Labour: Its Concept and Measurement ", loc. cit. Comparative Productivity in British and American Industry, op. cit., p. 2. 96 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS or similar properties of the product or they may consist of differences in the tolerances of manufacturing specifications. These differences may be often invisible to the consumer, and yet each manufacturer may attach particular value to the specific technical qualities of his product, and a higher technical quality may involve the use of more labour per unit. 1 The influence of changes in product specifications is particularly important when dealing with international comparisons: changes in product specifications in the course of time may often be slow and therefore have little influence on year-to-year comparisons in a given country; when comparing outputs from one country to another at a given time, differences in the specifications of products bearing the same name might correspond to important differences in labour required for the production of what appears at first sight to be an identical " unit ". Therefore, any computation of productivity figures would need, to be of use, to be accompanied by a detailed description of the product specifications. (b) The difficulties arising out of the definition of the product or the industry have been noted as one of the main problems of productivity computations in national statistics. These difficulties are increased when international comparisons are required. Individual industries, as classified by the censuses of manufactures, each produce a group of products and by-products which are not identical in the different countries as regards the relative importance of individual types within the group. As a result, comparisons of physical output per head can be made only for a certain number of industries for which quantitative data are available and where the output can be reduced to a sufficient degree of homogeneity. A second complication arises from the difficulty of covering precisely the same range of productive processes in the two countries compared. Therefore, in manufacturing industry, comparisons are often confined to industries which have a rather simple product structure, that is, which produce only one or a few products, and to industries which produce approximately homogeneous products. Experience shows that even two firms in the same industry of the same country seldom produce identical products, and this will be even more true of whole industries in different countries, since they will be differently organised, and market requirements, climate, taste, etc., will all be different. 1 Idem, p p . 13-14. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 97 Full details relating to these various difficulties have been noted by L. Rostas : To start with, it is possible only to compare industries the product of which is broadly homogeneous. That is, they produce mainly one product, such as cement, or different sub-groups of the same product, such as men's shoes, women's shoes and so forth. It is not possible to compare industries with a heterogeneous product structure, such as chemicals or plate and jewellery. In many cases the difficulties are purely statistical, where we have an insufficient breakdown of the industrial classification. Even in cases where there is one product in the industry, if this product consists of a number of sub-products, such as different types of shoes or different types of motor cars, the difficulty arises in converting these sub-products into one homogeneous product. In this respect international comparisons present perhaps a smaller difficulty than, say, inter-regional comparisons, as there is more likelihood that the product structure of two countries will be broadly similar. The proportion of men's and women's shoes in the total number of shoes produced in the United Kingdom and in the United States will perhaps not differ very much, whereas the product structure of, say, England and Wales would differ. A similar problem arises when instead of many sub-products there is one main product and a number of by-products, all specific to the industry under investigation. Thus, in the case of the coke industry, coke is obviously the main product, but a number of important gases, etc., which are by-products of the trade, have to be considered too. 1 The output of the industries compared will consist not only of the output of the main product or products in which we are interested but of some other by-products or ancillary products, and therefore part of their labour force will be used for producing these latter products. A corollary of the [latter] difficulty is that part of the main product in which we are interested is produced as the by-product or ancillary product of some other industry. Thus the motor car industry may produce such ancillary products as aircraft engines and parts, wireless apparatus, electrical machinery, tractors, etc. At the same time, some part of the motor cars may be produced in other industries than the motor car industry. In both cases mentioned the proportions of the labour force and of the product involved may differ in different countries. Industries as defined by the censuses may cover a different part of the productive process. Cement-making may include or exclude quarrying of lime and chalk. Again, in all the textile industries, textile finishing may be treated as part of the cotton or woollen industry or as a separate industry. This will depend on the actual technical integration in the industries concerned and secondly on the census treatment of such subordinated industries. The usual procedure is to classify each plant into one industry on the basis of its main activity. But if the census regards the subordinate processes as separate industries and data relating to the performance of the plant covering the whole process can be divided up, this is usually done. 1 Idem, p p . 12-13. 98 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS Industries compared may perform a different number of processes, even if they cover roughly the same scope. The steel industry is the most obvious example. Two steel industries compared may differ because one is producing all its raw steel, while the other is importing part of the bars, etc. Or they may differ because one is taking rerolling a stage further than the other. Industries compared may differ in scope when part of the production process consists of making parts and accessories, and the other part consists of assembly. This problem is especially important in practically all engineering industries. The motor car industry is a good example. To make a comparison between the motor car industries of two countries one can attempt one of two things: to compare the assembly work solely, which is a difficult proceeding considering that in practice assembly and the making of parts and accessories are not at all easily distinguishable, and this would be reflected in the statistical material available; or one tries to compare the whole process of the making of the motor car, including the making of parts and accessories. The choice of processes and activities to be included is sometimes arbitrary—making radiators is regarded as part of the motor car industry, while making tyres is not, but in so far as an identical range of activity is covered in the countries investigated the arbitrary factor will not have much effect. Ancillary manufacturing activities may be performed either within the industry investigated or outside the industry. For example, making packing material or printing, etc. In so far as these activities are not treated as separate industries by the censuses, differences will arise. Repair and maintenance of installations may be included in the industry (i.e., in the labour force) or they may be treated separately. Non-manufacturing activities may be performed outside the industry. The two main examples are transport and generating electricity. 1 (c) Differences in integration are generally sharper between the various countries than between the various plants of an industry within a country: If we compare cotton weaving in the United States with cotton weaving in the non-integrated British mills, the basic figures—quantity and value of piece goods produced, the total value of gross output, number of persons—on the surface appear to be comparable. The total value of gross output is largely accounted for by the value of piece goods produced. In reality, however, there is a vast difference, and a large, in fact the major, part of the employees in the United States has been engaged in making yarns, without this additional activity being reflected in any of the figures used for comparison. In this particular case the intermediate product was transferred within the same plant or within the different plants of the same firms and did not appear in the final value of gross output. If a great proportion of the intermediate product were sold within the industry, the data relating to the final product of the industry would be the same, but 1 Idem, p p . 11-13. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 99 owing to statistical duplication there would have been a substantial difference between the value of total gross output and the value of the final product or products. 1 Another type of difficulty arises when the two industries compared produce the same product, but also produce for sale intermediate products, and the proportion of intermediate products for sale varies in relation to the total product. For example, the British cotton industry—so defined as to include spinning and weaving—has two main products : yarn and cloth ; yarn is also an intermediate product for its other main product, cloth, whereas the United States cotton textile industry has, broadly speaking, only one main product, cloth, and the bulk of the yarn produced is used in the same plant or is transferred within the industry. A similar type of problem arises in engineering, where parts and accessories are mostly assembled into the finished product, such as motor cars or wireless sets, but the same intermediate products are also sold to the final consumer for replacement. Thus, a comparison of the labour productivity of steel industries in the United States and the United Kingdom based on the output of ingots (as a measure of output of the steel industries) would not be correct, since it would make no allowance for the considerable quantities of imported ingots and semi-finished steel which are worked up in the United Kingdom. Finally, in some industries the measure of output of heterogeneous finished goods is often estimated b y using as an indicator the quantity of raw materials consumed. This may lead, in international comparisons, to wrong conclusions. COMPARABILITY OF PRODUCTION AND LABOUR DATA (a) In a given country, the proportion of a certain product which is produced outside the industry, and, within the industry, the proportion of the main product to by-products, may remain fairly constant over not too considerable periods of time; but such proportions are seldom the same in every country. Therefore, adjustments are necessary in order to allow for the number of persons employed in the production of by-products and ancillary products not taken into consideration in the comparison, as well as for those persons producing part of the main 1 Idem, p. 20. 100 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS product but classified in other industries. Such adjustments are made, for instance, on the following basis: The total number of persons employed as given in the censuses relates to the total value of the gross output of the trade. As the total value of those products which are included in the comparison is also available, the number of persons employed can be corrected for differences. The correction factor is given by the ratio of the value of included products to the total value of gross output . . . The unstated assumption underlying this method is that the value of gross output per head is the same in respect of the main product produced in the industry and outside the industry . . . If the total value of the product specified both by quantity and value does not account for the major part of the total value of gross output, the method of adjustment described above is unsatisfactory, in the sense that the number of persons associated with the particular output cannot be reliably estimated. Another case when this method is not applicable is when it can be assumed that the total value of gross output contains a large amount of duplication. Duplication in the value of gross output is a clear warning that great care should be taken in the comparison of the processes covered.1 (b) The influence of variations over a period of time in the size of the establishments included in the censuses of production or in the computation of production or labour indices has been noted in Chapter V. When proceeding to international comparisons, the same type of difficulty is encountered, because the scope of the various national censuses is not identical. For the British census for 1935 and for the 1937 Import Duties Act enquiries, " detailed returns were not obtained from persons employing not more than 10 persons as a yearly average " ; the excluded small firms gave only the number of persons employed; while, for the United States censuses, data have been collected only from establishments reporting products to the value of $5,000 or more. As the value of product per person engaged amounted to $6,270 in 1937, the scope of the United States census is wider than the British census (except for repairs and " custom " industries). In 1935, in the factory trade covered by the British census, 536,600 persons were estimated to have been employed by small firms (with not more than 10 employees) as compared with 5.2 million persons employed by firms with 10 or more employees. In individual industries, of course, this ratio is even higher. For the United States, the only indication of the excluded persons is given in the 1939 Census of Service Establishments, where persons employed in such categories as automobile repairs and services, other repair services, and especially custom industries, are shown; categories which are broadly comparable to, although more extensive than, the excluded British small firms. But the number of persons employed in these services was relatively small in comparison with the 9.1 million persons employed by the census industries. 1 Idem, p p . 19-20. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 101 The effect of these differences in the scope of the censuses on relative productivity depends on the relative efficiency of different-sized establishments and plants. Available evidence suggests that small plants and small firms have a lower output per head than bigger plants, and thus their exclusion from the British census makes the comparison1 more favourable for Great Britain than it would be by their inclusion. The importance of such considerations becomes obvious when comparisons are attempted between countries of completely different industrial organisation, such as the United Kingdom and China, for instance. In a study of industrial production and employment in pre-war China 2 intended to present data comparable to that shown b y L. Rostas 3 , some of the definitions and limitations in scope were stressed. Factories in China were defined as those firms employing more than 30 employees; " h a n d i c r a f t " covered all other firms, as well as family subsidiary works and independent craftsmen. The scope of manufactures in the other three countries is much wider (in the United Kingdom, all firms employing more than 10 persons; in Germany, firms employing five or more employees; in t h e United States, firms producing an output worth $5,000 or more). But the authors of the comparison noted that in terms of output produced, Chinese firms with 30 employees rarely attain $5,000 worth of output, or the output of a United Kingdom shop with 10 employees. The ratio of factory employment (as defined here) to total employment compared with that in the other three countries as follows: China 0.25 per cent., Germany (1936) 9.12 per cent., the United States (1935) 6.7 per cent., the United Kingdom (1935) 11.3 per cent. SPECIAL PROBLEMS OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS (a) In a given country, the proportion of the output of a given industry to the total does not generally vary rapidly over a period of time. Therefore, in year-to-year changes, t h e influence of this factor may often be of secondary importance. In international comparisons, on the contrary, the different structure of the output of each country, combined with sometimes 1 2 Idem, pp. 24-25. PAO-SAN OU and FOH-SHEN WANG: " Industrial Production and Employ- ment in Pre-War China ", in the Economic Journal, Vol. LVI, 1946. 3 L. ROSTAS: "Industrial Production, Productivity and Distribution in Great Britain, Germany and the United States ", Economic Journal, Vol. LIII, Apr. 1943. 102 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS considerable differences of productivity in the various branches of economic activity, may have a predominant effect on the results of the computations. Here, as in time-to-time comparisons within a country, two measures (or sets of measures) can be made. One type consists of comparisons based on identical production composites; the productivity of each individual industry is weighted with the same weights in each country (these weights may be those of one of the countries compared, or of an intermediary or standard production complex). The second type consists of comparisons based on the production composite of each country as it stands; the productivity of each individual industry is weighted by the importance of t h a t industry in the country. In the latter case, in addition to the differences due to different productivity rates in each industry, the importance of each industry in each country, and especially the relative importance of high productivity to low productivity industries will intervene. The meaning of these two sets of measures has been examined in detail in Chapter V. It would appear useful, for international comparisons, to compute over-all productivity data according to both methods, as was done by L. Rostas in his study of comparative productivity in the British and United States manufacturing industry: misinterpretations of the results would then be avoided. (b) Among the many factors affecting labour productivity, it has been pointed out in Chapter II t h a t the rate of capacity used was one of the most important. Therefore, especially when comparing productivity data compiled from censuses of production, special attention should be paid to the consideration of the rate of capacity used, which is influenced, for instance, by general economic conditions. This important point is emphasised by the fact that the years for which censuses of production are taken are seldom the same in the various countries: for this reason a comparison is relevant only if the years chosen in the countries to be compared are reasonably comparable as to the rate of unemployment and the use of equipment in relation to capacity. Considerations of this order had a definite influence on the choice of the data to be compared in a study made by A. W. Flux. The years to which the American data apply have not, so far, been the same as the years selected for the British enquiries, and this circumstance may be an important obstacle in the way of carrying out the desired comparisons. Thus, the first census of production in the INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 103 United Kingdom dealt with the year 1907, and the United States data for 1909, the nearest available data, may reflect industrial conditions which had been affected by the business crisis of 1907 sufficiently to invalidate, in part, many of the deductions that might otherwise be made from the recorded data. The second of the British series of censuses related to 1912; the United States data for comparison, being those for the year 1914, may have failed to represent normal conditions, in view of the war demand on the resources of a great neutral manufacturing country. After the war the re-establishment of the British census was not effected until 1924, to which year the third of the series relates. For comparison we have the results of the United States Census of Manufactures for 1925. The fourth of the British censuses dealt with the year 1930, and the available material for comparison relates, in the case of the United States, to 1929. It may, perhaps, appear that a six-year interval would be better for comparative purposes, and that either the American data for 1923 should be used for the earlier comparison or those for 1931 for the later. It is, however, desirable to put as long an interval as may be feasible between the disturbed industrial conditions resulting from the feverish war activity and the dates selected for such inter-country comparisons, and it appeared, therefore, preferable to set the British data for 1924 against the United States data for 1925, rather than those for 1923.1 (c) Although the use of net outputs to measure the production of an industry is subject to such drawbacks as have been indicated in Chapter IV, international comparisons have sometimes been attempted on this basis, particularly because such measures seem to overcome the difficulties due to differences in product specification, degree of integration, etc. But when comparisons of values of net output, per head or per man-hour, are made between countries, a very, important additional problem is encountered : that of the conversion of the data for each country into the same monetary unit. The choice of the rate of conversion is of fundamental influence, but involves great difficulties. It would be necessary to make the conversion at the purchasing parity rate for the products investigated. For this purpose it is necessary firstly to list the main products of the industries to be compared, and, secondly, to ascertain the prices of these products in both countries. It would be even more appropriate to ascertain the purchasing parity rate for both the finished products and for the materials which were used in their manufacture, and thus to calculate an exchange rate which is more corresponding to the concept of net output. Prices, of course, must relate to identical products as well as to identical conditions of sale, for example, " ex works " or " delivered at site ", and so on. The ratio of such prices gives the exchange rate in terms of these products. 1 A. W. FLUX: " Industrial Productivity in Great Britain and the United States ", in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. XLVIII, Nov. 1933, pp. 1-2. 104 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS The ascertainment of comparable prices is not easy, if possible at all. Two supplementary methods can be applied, neither of them being very satisfactory. (1) Instead of the purchasing parity rate the official exchange rate merely can be applied, which expresses price differences in terms of all commodities and not only of those under investigation. (2) The exchange rate in terms of average factory values (as ascertained from the census) can be calculated: this would be identical with the purchasing parity rate only if the average product of the countries compared were identical (which is very seldom indeed), but the differences between this rate and the general exchange rate usually gives some indication of the direction in which the purchasing parity rate would deviate from the general exchange rate. 1 An example of the considerable differences that might be involved in such computations can be shown on the basis of a comparison made between the United Kingdom and Germany for 1935-1937. 2 In this study, the rate of Í7.08 Reichsmark to the pound (used by the German Institute of Business Research) was adopted as the appropriate rate of exchange for measuring relative purchasing power in 1935-1937. Under this assumption, the German output of manufacturing industries in 1936 was 127 for 100 in the United Kingdom in 1935. Had the official rate been used (12.2 Reichsmark to the pound), the German to the United Kingdom ratio would have been 40 per cent, higher, t h a t is, 177. It is unlikely that this rate actually represented the purchasing power parity; but this example should show the considerable differences t h a t might be encountered if care is not taken to use the correct rates. The same German Institute arrived at a purchasing power rate of $4.68 to the pound, instead of the $4.92 used by L. Rostas; the difference between these two estimates is 5 per cent.—a not inconsiderable extra error to introduce into calculations of labour productivity. When net outputs per head are compared, one may thus wonder whether the differences observed express a difference in the prices ruling in the two countries or the difference in the productive capacity of the two organisations: The figures showing the nominal increases in net output per head are difficult of interpretation, as they reflect in the main the changes in the value of money over the period examined. As already noted, the fact that the year 1907, for a large part of its duration, was a time of relatively high prices and flourishing trade, may well account for a 1 2 Comparative Productivity in British and American Industry, op. cit., p. 10. " Industrial Production, Productivity and Distribution in Great Britain, Germany and the United States ", loc. cit. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 105 smaller proportionate advance in prices from 1907 to 1924 than from 1909 to 1925, without calling for explanation based on different degrees of industrial progress in the two countries.1 The results obtained when substituting factors of conversion such as official exchange rates, average factory values, etc., for the purchasing parity rates, may thus vary considerably. Moreover, the use of a general factor of conversion may be entirely erroneous, since the assumption that the ratio of prices in the individual industries is the same as the ratio of general price levels is seldom true. It might be proposed to convert the value of output of each industry at the purchasing parity rate of that industry; if the amount of research work involved in such computations is considered, it will be realised t h a t there is little to be gained by using this method rather than comparisons in terms of physical output per head. SPECIAL ENQUIRIES Since numerous difficulties are involved in the international comparison of production and labour data taken from censuses of manufactures, or from data collected for the measurement of production and labour per se, it is useful to examine whether special enquiries into labour productivity would not, as in the collection of national data, yield better results. The advantages of such enquiries lie in the fact that data concerning production and labour are collected simultaneously; these enquiries enable the collection of detailed data of unit labour requirements per operation; they furnish information per plant, therefore permitting of comparisons according to differences in size, location, production process, etc.; and they are easily supplemented by detailed information concerning technological differences in the processes followed. When comparing labour productivity in an industry in different countries, it must be borne in mind that the production processes (machines used, nature and quality of raw materials, etc.) vary widely from one country to another, and while an over-all result is certainly of great interest to show the differences in numbers of man-hours or men required for a certain production, interpretations of such differences cannot be made if details are not available on the internal structure of the industry. 1 A. W. FLUX, loc. cit., p. 30. 106 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS Thus, the fact that " the American weaving equipment and organisation are based on the automatic loom, which constitutes about 95 per cent, of the American loomage, and the British on the non-automatic loom, representing also about 95 per cent, of the total looming in Britain 1 ", lias to be known if correct interpretations of the lower British over-all productivity of labour in the cotton industry are to be made. One of the main advantages of special enquiries is that they allow separate comparisons of each phase of the productive process and thus indicate at what stage and in which part of the process substantial differences may be observed. The report of the Cotton Textile Mission to the United States, for example, indicated that although output per man-hour is much higher at every single stage of cotton textile production in the United States than it is in the United Kingdom, it is particularly high in the stage of winding and beaming. The main drawbacks of such a method lie in: (1) its need for preciseness, which often confines it to clearly measurable outputs; (2) its cost, since it is undertaken separately from current collection of data concerning production or labour. The main problem in the making of special enquiries lies in the correct selection of plants in each country, so that they are representative of the industry as a whole. This is far from being an insuperable problem, especially with the development of sampling methods. Once data have been collected in each country for a representative sample of plants of the industry (representative in size, location, production processes, etc.), several computations may be made, all of which are useful and necessary for the interpretation of the actual situation. Comparisons can be made: (i) between the productivity of two " identical " plants of the same size, operating the same processes, etc.; (ii) between the unit labour requirements expended to produce identical products from identical raw materials through entirely different processes; 1 Report of the Cotton Textile Mission to the United Slates of America, MarchApril 1944, op* cit. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 107 (iii) within each country, between the performance of plants of various sizes, locations, production processes, etc.; (iv) between countries, of the " average " productivity, considering the actual distribution in size, location, etc., of the plants; international comparisons on this latter basis will indicate differences due to the compound effects of differences in production processes, size, etc., and efficiency. Finally, with this method, computations corrected for any of the factors affecting labour productivity are possible, whereby information is gained on the influence of that factor. It must also be recalled that, as noted for national computations in Chapter VI, once basic data are collected through special enquiries, they may always be combined with any weights that are desired, either to produce comparisons of productivity as a characteristic of each undertaking or to study differences in productivity, including differences in the composition of production. Special—or sample—enquiries thus appear to have, from the international point of view, the considerable advantages of eliminating most of the drawbacks due to the lack of comparability of production figures with labour figures or their non-comparability in time, and, in addition, permit of detailed comparisons and analysis of the influence of the various factors affecting labour productivity. They require the collaboration of technicians, because of the necessity of complete technical knowledge of the processes of the industry studied; but they appear essential if complete information is to be gathered on international labour productivity differences. CHAPTER Vili INTERPRETATION OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY DATA The previous chapters have been mainly concerned with the difficulties encountered in the measurement of labour, output and labour productivity, and of the insufficiencies of the data actually used to measure and compare labour productivity for products, undertakings, industries and countries. An attempt will be made in the present chapter to bring out the meanings of the various data currently issued on labour productivity, in the light of the solutions generally adopted to the main problems raised by the measurement of labour or production. THE CONCEPTS The interpretation of measures referring to the labour productivity of a single independent worker, or of a gang of workers, is simple ; difficulties arise when the unit under consideration is an undertaking and become complicated when a group of undertakings forming an industry is considered; the interpretation of labour productivity data for a group of industries, or for a branch of economic activity, is extremely intricate ; finally, the computation of the labour productivity of a nation as a whole may involve the use of such complex concepts as the national income, and are extremely difficult to interpret rightly. The data to be collected depend—or should depend—on the purpose of the investigation. Reciprocally, interpretations of the results obtained will depend on the data actually used; the use of data of a certain kind allows correlative conclusions to be drawn, but no other conclusions. Thus, the concepts used, explicitly or implicitly, must be determined before any interpretation may be undertaken, and particularly the distinction must be made between the two main concepts discussed in Chapters I and V. For instance, when an index of unit labour requirements is computed in the United States for the cigar and cigarette industries by dividing a production index with value weights by a • INTERPRETATION OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY DATA 109 man-hour index, the index understates the amount of labour required after 1929 to produce the 1929 volume of cigars and cigarettes 1 , but provides an indication of the total labour actually required to produce, say, the 1936 production composite of cigars and cigarettes, as compared with the total labour actually required to produce the 1929 production composite. Information obtained on the basis of this index with value weights would not be furnished by an index weighted with unit labour requirements, and vice versa; both indices are useful indicators, however, of different aspects of the same facts. MEASUREMENT The way in which results are influenced by the main features of the various measures currently used in labour productivity computations are reviewed below. Labour Productivity and Labour Data (1) Actual effort, particularly non-manual effort, is scarcely ever measured. Labour is commonly measured by the time spent at work; variation in the quality of effort contributed is one of the factors reflected in changes in labour productivity. Variations in labour productivity measure effort alone only when all other factors affecting labour productivity are maintained unchanged, but this is very rarely the case. (2) The meaning of the results varies according to the kinds of labour taken into consideration; within an establishment, the productivity of direct labour will vary differently from that of indirect labour, and the productivity of the total labour expended in the establishment may thus have a trend different from either. Whenever possible, it will be useful to collect data for direct and indirect labour separately, since this will throw light on the influence of each of these kinds of labour. Standard international definitions of direct and indirect labour are not at present available, so that general conclusions on comparisons of the productivity of direct or indirect labour separately from country to country are not at present possible. The problem of embodied labour, or labour spent in the building of the machines used in a given process, is of great importance. No accurate statistics can at present be set up to measure such 1 8 See Chapter V, p. 65. 110 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS labour, and therefore the measures of labour productivity currently issued do not take it into account. It must thus be kept in mind, when interpreting labour productivity data, that the data obtained correspond in general to the labour spent on the premises of the establishments only, that is, they correspond to certain given conditions of production and equipment, and that comparisons between establishments might be considerably influenced by the differences in equipment. (3) In the computation of man-hours contributed, most measures of labour productivity make no allowance, because of the lack of suitable weights, for differences in the output of persons of different sex, age or skill. As a consequence, differences in sex, age or skill in the labour force will affect comparisons of labour productivity. Obviously, data concerning the composition of the labour force are essential for evaluating the influence of differences in the composition of the labour force on the differences observed in productivity. (4) The difference between " output per man " and " output per man-hour " need not be recalled in full detail. Each kind of data serves different purposes : " output per man " data should be compiled with a view to estimating employment possibilities, future national income, etc., in other words, when interest is focused on the number of jobs; "output per man-hour" data should be used when the productive capacity of labour, the cost of production in labour time, etc., are under analysis. Labour Productivity and Production Data (1) In the interpretation cf productivity data, particular attention should be paid to variations in the course of time and to the non-comparability from undertaking to undertaking of product specifications ; many of the apparent variations in labour productivity, especially over short periods, and many of the apparent differences in labour productivity between one undertaking and another may be due, at least partly, to differences in the quality, shape, size, etc., of products designated by the same name. Measures of labour productivity for a production process, rather than for a product, may ensure more comparability, and thus help to avoid misinterpretations. (2) Problems of interpretation of labour productivity data similar to those raised by the consideration of " embodied labour " are raised by differences in the degree of integration of various INTERPRETATION OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY DATA 111 establishments. Such differences may explain, at least partly, differences in unit labour requirements for two establishments producing the same goods: If output per man-hour goes up because a plant now buys its electricity instead of making its own, it is very likely that some social and private gain has resulted, but it will not be measured at all accurately by the decline in unit labour requirements in that plant. 1 Such will be the case whenever an establishment expands to take over the production of semi-finished goods previously obtained from other sources or restricts its scope and specialises in part of the production it was previously carrying out. As output is still measured by the weight, or the number of units, etc., of the same finished product, variations in computed labour productivity might appear which are caused solely by changes in the production process: they correspond to displacements in the total labour producing an article, but not necessarily to a decrease or increase in the unit labour requirements for the article considered. The use of computations based on the value of net output is of little help here, especially for absolute productivity data, because of the great number of factors unrelated to productivity by which such computations are affected. However, simultaneous information on the variations of gross and net output per unit will be of great assistance in the interpretation of the data. An example of the difference in meaning of data based on gross output from that of data based on net output, and of the conclusions that might be drawn when in possession of both sets of data, is shown by comparing the two major indices issued by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics of the United States for measuring labour productivity in agriculture. 2 The indexes of gross farm production per worker do not measure, specifically, changes in the effectiveness with which farm labour is used. The indexes do reflect the increases in production per worker which are due to the substitution of city-made tractors, trucks and automobiles for farm-produced horses and mules, the use of better seeds, more fertiliser, soil conservation practices, etc. All in all, the indexes of gross farm production per worker can be said to measure only changes in the quantity of production per farm worker that emerge from agriculture. The indexes of farm output per worker reflect changes in the volume of product per worker resulting from the diversion of feed for workstock to feed to produce a greater volume of livestock and livestock products for human consumption. In other words, 1 2 Measuring Labor Productivity, op. cit. For the definition of these indices, see p. 73. 112 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS changes in gross production more nearly represent changes in the product for which farm workers were responsible.1 To overcome the difficulties arising from different degrees of integration, unit labour requirements figures may be computed for the various processes within an establishment; comparison between plants of different degrees of integration are then possible, taking into account for the comparisons only those unit labour requirements corresponding to the same phases of the production process. Labour Productivity Formulae The concepts and formulae on which the computations of labour productivity or unit labour requirements indices are based are intimately linked. It has been shown2 that they can be grouped in two main types. It is essential, in order to interpret the measures correctly, to know clearly what formula and what weights, implicit or explicit, have been used, or at least to what main type they belong. In particular, the ratios of production indices to employment or man-hour indices—indices computed to measure production or labour variations, and not especially in view of productivity measures—are influenced by changes in the composition of output ; if the influence of the latter is to be avoided, special measures must be used, in which individual outputs will be weighted by unit labour requirements. Whenever possible, it would of course be preferable to secure data according to various types of formula, so as to be in a position to throw light on all aspects of the variations of the facts observed, including changes in the composition of production, which are as important as any to the interpretation of labour productivity changes. THE INTERPRETATION OF OVER-ALL MEASURES Measures of labour productivity as computed in the past have clearly shown one important fact: labour productivity levels and trends often show considerable differences from one undertaking to another, one industry to another, or one branch of economic activity to another: Realisation of the striking differences in productivity trends of the various industries is extremely important. These diverse trends among 1 2 Major Sources of Productivity Information, I n Chapter V a n d A p p e n d i x I . op. cit. INTERPRETATION OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY DATA 113 industries characterise all periods of time. The index for manufacturing as a whole, then, is an average of the indexes for the component industries and represents the net effect of many widely dissimilar separate trends. As a consequence, no industry can safely assume that its productivity is increasing on the basis of an increase in the index for all manufacturing.1 Variations in unit labour requirements in the United States from the beginning of the century to the outbreak of the second world war afford an illustration of this fact: The changes in wage earners per unit between 1899 and 1937 range over a wide scale, from a net rise for forest products of 10 per cent. to a drastic cut of 80 per cent, in the group of industries making tobacco products. Transportation equipment, petroleum and coal products, and printing and publishing were all characterised by extreme declines in the employment-output ratio: in 1937 these industrial groups employed only one fourth as many wage earners per unit of product as they had 38 years earlier. In the paper products and chemical groups, the declines, though smaller, exceeded 50 per cent.; in all the remaining groups the cut in workers per unit was less than the 50 per cent, average for manufacturing as a whole.2 This quotation refers to variations observed for industrial groups; the divergencies between the variations of individual industries are of course greater. The 1937 index of wage earners employed per unit of product (1899=100) varies from 12 (automobiles, including bodies and parts) to 225 (locomotives). Thus, averages for manufacturing conceal wide variations from industry to industry. These wide differences between various industries in the variations in labour productivity or unit labour requirements over a period of time have also been noted by J. Fourastié, who considers them as the fundamental factor influencing modern economy, and points out that, while in most manufacturing industries the decreases in unit labour requirements over time are considerable— very large sectors of economic activity have remained practically unaffected by technical progress. For example, the men's hairdresser does not attend more customers in 1948 than in 1900; entire occupations have not modified their methods of work from 1900 to 1930.3 D. Weintraub has also remarked that an analysis of productivity increases in basic industries and services shows t h a t 1 Productivity, Employment and Living Standards, op. cit. 2 S. FABRICANT: op. cit., pp. 31-32. 3 J. FOURASTIÉ: op. cit., p. 27. 114 METHODS OF LABOUB PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS productivity of services has practically not increased. He points out, however, that— even if similar relative increases in productivity had occurred in both fields, a levelling off of the index of labour required per unit of output would have taken place if, during the same period, service activities had accounted for a rapidly growing proportion of the total o u t p u t . . . . The divergency of the trends of employment in the several industrial groups discussed and the variations in the extent of the productivity changes make it clear that the over-all productivity ratio derived from the data on total national income and total employment cannot be interpreted as measures of the extent of technological advance in individual industries any more than the per capita monetary national income figures can be used as measures of the incomes of individual groups in society. . . . Over-all productivity ratios reflect a variety of factors in addition to the mechanical improvements usually characterised as " technological ".x It appears that the explanation of the apparent divergencies between various labour productivity data is to be found at least partly in these wide differences from plant to plant, from industry to industry, or from one branch of economic activity to another. As the most easily measurable labour productivity is that of manufacturing, because it is possible to define production more easily in this branch of economic activity than in others, and because data concerning production and employment (current statistics and censuses of production) are more generally available, most comparisons made up to the present between various countries have referred to manufacturing. Such comparisons are often in apparent contradiction with other data, and especially with comparisons of real national income per head. Therefore, some authors have attempted a " reconciliation " between various international comparisons of labour productivity and real national income per head. The following table illustrates the kind of computations made. (The data refer to the period 1935-1939.) A similar table was also established by T. Barna. 2 To give its full weight to this table, it should be mentioned t h a t J. R. N. Stone estimated the per capita national income of the United Kingdom in 1938 as amounting to £97 and that of the United States to £103 (the United States national income being converted into pounds at the official rate of exchange). These figures correspond to an index of 106 for the United States as 1 2 Unemployment and Increasing T. cit., B A R N A : op. p. 216. Productivity, op. cit. INTERPRETATION OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY DATA TABLE XII. 115 RECONCILIATION OF PRODUCTIVITY COMPARISONS WITH REAL INCOME COMPARISONS, UNITED KINGDOM AND UNITED STATES Output Basis of comparison Estimated output per man-hour in manufacturing . . Estimated output per worker in manufacturing . . . . Estimated output per worker in all branches of the national economy Allowing for distribution of working population coupled with lower relative output per worker in the different industries of the same country Allowing for difference in the ratio of working population to total population Allowing for higher United States unemployment in the year of comparison Allowing for slightly higher British income from foreign investments U.K. U.S.A. 100 100 273-292 212-224 100 163-183 100 150 100 128 100 124 100 118 Source: Comparative Productivity in British, and Amsrican Industry, op. cit., p. 92. compared with 100 for the United Kingdom. 1 Similarly, the level o f consumption of final goods and services of the United Kingdom was estimated at between 10 and 20 per cent, below that of the United States. 2 NECESSITY FOR DETAILED INFORMATION The complexity of the interpretation of labour productivity data has been reviewed and stressed. At all levels—the plant, the industry, the branch of economic activity and the national level—the meaning of absolute figures, indices or comparisons is difficult to interpret, and the variations in the figures are influenced by a considerable number of factors. In addition, the meaning of the data is also dependent on the formulae used and in general on the methods of collection and tabulation of the data: One may well ask, at this point, what significance do figures have which show the relationship, over a period of time, between output and employment ? Clearly they are not directly related to productive efficiency, and one would do well to avoid the sin of commission in using them as such. They do offer, however, a crude indicator of 1 J . R. N . S T O N E : " The Measurement of National Income a n d E x p e n diture ", in t h e Economic Journal, Sept. 1947, p . 297. 2 The Impact of the War on Civilian Consumption in the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada (H.M. Stationery Office, London, 1945), Appendix XI. 116 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS industrial demand for manpower. We learn from such data, for example, that a particular industry needs more or less man-hours to complete a unit of product. Of course, it may not be exactly the same product as that turned out in the past. The industry might have changed its method of operation. But whatever the causes, the figures are apt to indicate the change in the demand for labour. Of course, we do not know whether workers of the same or different skill, aptitude or ability are in demand now as heretofore. Nevertheless, the global figure gives us some idea of industry's need for manpower.1 It is clear that this complex effect of all factors affecting labour productivity should not be considered identical with change in " efficiency ", or with any other single aspect of manufacturing development. If the reduction in labour requirements per unit of product, whether calculated in numbers employed or in hours worked, can be held to reflect a multitude of changes in the processes and means of production, it cannot be regarded also as a measure of change in the efficiency, amount or character of any one factor of production. Those who consider the figures cited to be indexes of labour efficiency, of quantity of capital invested, or of improvement in capital equipment, are in effect ascribing to one or another factor the result of changes in all factors. For the same reason, one cannot reasonably focus attention exclusively on any one motivating force behind the far-reaching changes m e a s u r e d b y t h e d e c l i n e in l a b o u r p e r u n i t . If w e s t r e s s m a n a g e m e n t as their initiator we may underestimate the other factors that must have stimulated management: for example, trade union efforts to raise wage rates, and encouragement of standardisation of products and regulation of hours and conditions of labour by governmental agencies.2 It is thus clear t h a t over-all measures of labour productivity or of unit labour requirements, while useful in a first stage, are insufficient to throw light on the thousand and one questions which arise in their interpretation. For this reason, as L. Teper points out— Research should be undertaken on the plant level of the different industries in order to find out, in greater detail, what actually takes place there over a period of time. How are changes in productive efficiency brought about ? What is the influence of machinery, management, individual effort, flow of work, demand for goods, specifications and variety of product, nature of raw materials, and so on ? . . . We need also to get more information on the influences outside the plant on its productive efficiency. To what extent do changes in the demand for goods induce variations in the production methods ? What is the effect of competitors' activities on changes within the plant ? How rapid is the process of change as between the different plants ? 1 " This Thing called P r o d u c t i v i t y ", loc. cit. 3 S. F A B R I C A N T : op. cit., pp. 26-27. INTERPRETATION OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY DATA 117 What explains the survival of some of the outmoded methods of production ? What is the relation between capacity output and productive efficiency ? How is productive efficiency affected by changes in the nature of integration between the plant and other businesses ? What is the effect of developments in the field of communications and transportation on the plant ? The present interest in the question of productivity does not stem so much from the controversy about the meaning of a particular statistic, but from a universal desire to find the clue to a better standard of living. If it is held that the answer lies in greater productive efficiency, there is no question but that we must supplement our econometric studies by investigations of causes, effects and by-products of such changes. It is to this area that the attention of investigators of productive efficiency must turn. 1 Thus a correct interpretation of labour productivity data is possible only when the data collected are accompanied with as much information as possible on all the influential factors. In this respect special enquiries into labour productivity are superior to any other method: they permit the presentation of detailed data according to many classifications, which can throw light on the various factors affecting productivity; they may be combined according to various formulae, and this method also allows for the collection of non-numerical data which are extremely useful in the evaluation of the figures. 1 Limitations of the Existing New Studies, op. cit. Productivity Measures and the Need for CHAPTER IX GENERAL CONCLUSIONS1 The general importance of labour productivity has been stressed in the introduction to this report; productivity is a corner-stone of the economy of the future, and since the end of the second world war it has been in the foreground of the preoccupations of most countries. In order to throw light on a number of economic problems, such as the relation of technical progress to unemployment and employment, the possibilities of realising a high production, or the differences in real net national incomes per head between countries, statistics should be developed to measure as accurately as possible differences and changes in labour productivity in individual processes, separate industries, and, as far as possible, countries as a whole. Throughout this report the numerous difficulties of defining and measuring labour productivity and of interpreting the data have been emphasised. DEFINITIONS It appears extremely difficult to give a detailed definition of labour productivity covering all concepts to which the term is applied; it seems preferable to retain the general notion of the ratio of output to the corresponding input of labour and, whenever figures are issued, to state clearly the methods of computation, formulae and weights used. The computations will generally refer to either (a) output per man, or its reciprocal, the number of persons employed per unit of output; or (b) output per man-hour, or its reciprocal, man-hours expended per unit of output. In the latter case, the measures refer to the ratio of output to labour actually contributed; in the former case, the measures concern the ratio of output to the labour force. Both measures are useful; 1 These conclusions were presented to the Seventh International Conference of Labour Statisticians in the form of a draft resolution. The Conference suggested that, in the course of the revision of the report before printing, this resolution should be replaced by a chapter summarising the conclusions of the report. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS 119 they characterise different aspects of the relation of production to labour. Whatever the computations contemplated, it is indispensable to make provision for obtaining data concerning output and labour in comparable terms; this is particularly important when considering computations made on the basis of production and labour figures which are not collected at the same enquiry. Of course, whenever possible, measures per man and per man-hour should be prepared simultaneously, since the juxtaposition of these two series will yield considerable information. FORMULAE Whenever labour productivity is measured for more than a single plant, that is, for a group of undertakings or a group of industries, problems concerning the formulae of combination will arise. Two general concepts have been noted; it is important to state clearly the concept on which the measurements are based. The first concept is one in which the results are not affected by changes over time or differences between countries or regions in the composition of the outputs of the undertakings or industries on which the measures are based ; this concept implies that labour productivity is a characteristic of the plant in which it is measured. The second concept is one in which the results may be affected by changes over time or differences between countries or regions in the composition of the outputs of the undertakings or industries on which the measures are based; the use of this second concept is implicit in computations where average labour productivity for a certain production composite is compared with average labour productivity for another production composite. It should be noted that, when the formulae corresponding to the first concept are modified so as to represent the comparison of a labour index to a production index, this production index should be weighted with unit labour requirements ; if this is not done, and if use is made of substitute weights, the results correspond to those obtained under the second concept, that is, the variations in the productivity indices are influenced by variations in the production composites. MAN-HOURS PER UNIT OF OUTPUT Though the computation of man-hours per unit of output appears at first sight to be merely the reciprocal of output per 120 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS man-hour, the use of man-hours per unit of output offers considerable advantages over the use of figures of output per man-hour. The first advantage is that man-hours per unit of output are expressed in the same unit, an hcur of work, whatever the output considered, while output per man-hour is always expressed in different units—shoes, machines, bulldozers, number of sheets of glass, etc. The second and more important advantage is that man-hours per unit of output have an additive character: it is possible to compute the number of hours of work necessary to perform the different phases of a production process and, therefore, to compare from country to country, region to region or plant to plant the labour productivity of undertakings of different degrees of integration; for this purpose, it is merely necessary to isolate in the measures those man-hours corresponding to the same phases of a production process. This is not possible with measures of output per man-hour. COMPUTATIONS BASED ON NET OUTPUT Because of the difficulty of combining the physical output of entirely different goods, many comparisons of labour productivity, and especially international comparisons, have been based on the value in monetary terms of net output per head or per manhour. The danger of such computations lies in the fact that many factors other than the one they are intended to measure intervene in the computations. Though they have, within limits, the advantage of discarding the difficulties due to the varying degrees of integration, they nevertheless introduce in the computations variations due to differences in wages, profits, selling prices, etc. But, above all, they cannot be used in international comparisons without the help of exchange rates. The determination of such exchange rates involves an arbitrary and subjective element. There is no basis for the assumption that official exchange rates may be considered as the correct ones to be used, and there is no sound basis for the determination of any other " exact " exchange rate. It therefore appears preferable to confine international comparisons of labour productivity to measures based on physical output per head or per man-hour. Unfortunately, this may practically restrict such international comparisons to agriculture, manufacturing, mining and transport. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS DIVISION OF PRODUCTION INDICES BY EMPLOYMENT 121 INDICES Indices of labour productivity have often been prepared in the past by dividing current production indices by current employment or man-hour indices; these measures were made because the two sets of indices were available and because such a division seems to afford an approximate indication of the variation of the factor studied; but they should be used with extreme caution. Production and employment or man-hour indices are known to have biases, which are additive in such operations. Changes in labour productivity, with certain rare exceptions, are extremely small in the short run, whether production and employment vary greatly or little, and therefore small errors which may be negligible for most purposes in production indices or in employment indices are no longer negligible when considering indices of labour productivity obtained by dividing one by the other. The main difficulty lies in the lack of comparability in most cases of the two indices, since production indices are generally computed by agencies entirely independent of those preparing employment indices. Data are not collected simultaneously, or even from the same undertakings. The scope of the indices is different, as well as the concepts on which they are based, and it could be held that the variations observed in the indices of labour productivity computed by these means are due much more to differences in the methods of computation of the indices than to variations in labour productivity itself. However, when the production and employment (or man-hour) indices are based on data collected simultaneously in each undertaking, and are prepared by the same agency or by closely coordinated agencies, or when separately collected data have been submitted to careful correction, the comparability is improved. These remarks do not apply to important variations of labour productivity such as may be observed over a long period of 10 or 20 years, or in periods when special conditions prevail, as in wartime, during which labour productivity may show sharp increases or decreases. P E R I O D S OF COMPUTATION In this connection it should be noted that, whatever the method of computation, labour productivity figures should not be based on such short periods as would lead to erroneous conclusions 122 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS regarding the significance of apparent changes and trends. In many cases the length of the production process is considerably longer than a month, and sometimes longer than a year (as in boat building, house building, etc.). While, with the use of approximations and estimates, it may be possible in such cases to estimate monthly production figures, such figures lack real significance in labour productivity computations. It would appear also that in most cases where seasonal variations in the production process have to be considered labour productivity figures should not refer to periods of less than a year. At any rate, changes in labour productivity are so slow that computations for periods of less than a year seldom yield useful information. SPECIAL ENQUIRIES It has been stressed throughout the present report that over-all measures, while useful, are entirely insufficient to explain the influence of the various factors affecting labour productivity. It must be realised that the ultimate objective is to find out not whether labour productivity has increased or decreased but why such changes have occurred. Therefore, whenever possible, analyses or special studies should be undertaken to explain and measure the influence of the many and various factors affecting labour productivity. For these purposes the method of special enquiries into labour productivity should be recommended for serious consideration. In the collection of national and international data special enquiries have many advantages : they permit simultaneous collection of data on production and labour of the same scope; they allow the presentation of data according to the different phases of the production process ; they provide analyses illustrating the influence of various factors such as size, location of plant, mechanisation, etc., and they also permit the collection of information concerning the techniques followed and any other factors that may influence labour productivity. On the basis of data so obtained from individual plants, computations can be made according to whatever formula may be considered desirable. Productivity for a group of undertakings, a group of industries or for two or more countries can be computed on a fixed weight base or on a changing weight base with the same data, with very little additional work. In short, the method of special enquiries into labour productivity seems to be the best method of collecting GENERAL CONCLUSIONS 123 such data for the analysis of differences and variations from plant to plant, industry to industry and country to country. PUBLICATION Finally, the publication of labour productivity data should not be confined to the issue of bare figures, but should always be accompanied by detailed descriptions of the methods of collecting the data, the methods of computation used (including formulae when necessary) and, as far as possible, by an interpretation of the data in the light of the methods followed. APPENDICES APPENDIX I ANALYSIS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY FORMULAE In Chapter V of the present report several approaches to labour productivity or unit labour requirements indices have been indicated, and the relations between these approaches have been reviewed. However, the exposition of the various ideas is facilitated when use is made of mathematical notations. Furthermore, some statements require a more formal demonstration. Such is the purpose of the present appendix. For a single product the number of man-hours expended per unit of output, or unit labour requirement, may be expressed by: where q is the output of the product, m the man-hours utilised in the production of q, and I the number of man-hours per unit of output, or the unit labour requirement. The productivity of labour for any product, which is the reciprocal of the unit labour requirement, may be expressed as follows: g P= J = m where p is the labour productivity. For reasons of convenience the following analysis is based on the consideration of unit labour requirements; it refers to comparisons between the base period (noted o) and the current period (noted i), but the argument would apply equally well to comparisons between two regions o and i. The following notations are used : l0 represents unit labour requirements for one of the products at the period o; Zi, the unit labour requirements at the period ¿; qx, a certain quantity of that product; q0, the quantity of that product produced at the period o; qi, the quantity oí the same product produced at the period i; m0, the man-hours utilised in the production of q0 and nu, the man-hours utilised in the production of qi. 125 APPENDICES According to these definitions, for each product: m . mi lo = —0 , ti = — , and Ço qi rtio — l0qo, m = h gi . First approach. In the first approach to the setting up of unit labour requirements indices, as indicated in Chapter V, the total volume of labour required to produce a given complex of goods in the period i is compared to the total volume of labour required to produce the same complex in the period o; the formula of the unit labour requirements index is then x : "Zqxlo The unit labour requirements index thus depends on the complex considered. If the complex chosen is that formed by the output of each product during the period o (qx = q0), then: Xqxli _ S ^ l j __ Sgok Zqxlo ~ Zqolo ~ Sffio ~ °Jo SOT 0 ( T '' This formula I can be expressed as the ratio of the total labour that would have been spent to produce the base period complex of goods, with the current unit labour requirements, to the total labour actually spent in the base period. If the complex chosen is that formed by the output of each product during the period i (qx — qi), then: This formula II can be expressed as the ratio of the total labour actually spent to produce the current complex of goods to the total labour that would have been spent to produce the same complex had the unit labour requirements been those of the base period. Formulae I and II differ in one major respect. When data are obtained for several periods, if formula I has been used, comparisons 1 The correct writing of this formula, and similarly for the following ones, would be: 3=1 1, 2, 3, . k, . n corresponding to the various goods forming the complex. However, to avoid overloading the presentation, the formula will be written in the simplified way as indicated. 126 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS are possible between any two years. Thus, if the period / is to be compared to the period i the index should be: S go h Zqoh' This is equal to the division of the index for the period / as compared to period o by the index of the period i as compared to the same period o: S go lj Sgp/o S q0 lj 2 q0 li 'Zqok SçcZo If, however, formula II is used, the latter computation would not furnish the desired result, since the ratio Sgj/i is not equal to S q¡ lj S qj lg - S gift 2 qi l0 Second approach. In the second approach a weighted average of each individual unit labour requirement index 7- is computed, the lo weights being a. The formula will then be: to Sa " The interpretation of this formula will depend on the weights a chosen. When a = l0, Sa = "ÊTo"' that is, the ratio of the total unit labour requirements of the period i for all components to the total unit labour requirements of the period 0. When a — 1, Xa T0_ Sa 1 sfe n lo ' that is, the arithmetic mean of the individual unit labour requirements indices. 127 APPENDICES In this approach, the formula is reduced to formula I if the weights a correspond to the labour expended for the output of each component at the base period: T. Vi k S a 7- ** S m0 7= Sa Em« - (I) { '' The same approach leads to formula II if the weights adopted correspond to the labour that would have been expended to produce the current eriod output of each product with the unit labour requirements of the ase period: E li _ S a 7to Sa , li Sg-iío X 7- „ ío _ Zqrfo , ^qi H _ .jj. ~ S^i/o ~ [ll) ' Third approach. In the third approach, the average unit labour requirements in the period ¿ are compared to the average unit labour requirements in the period 0, the averages for each period being computed as the ratio of the total labour expended to the total output. The formula is then: S mi Stvji Sm 0 Swo 0 where w represents the weights used in the computation of the total outputs at the periods ¿ and 0. It must be noted that the weights used to measure these two outputs should be the same; otherwise, if weights w were used to measure the current output, and different weights w' to measure the base period output, while, when both the output of each good and the unit labour requirements remained unchanged the index should be equal to 1, this would not be true, since the formula would then become : S nu Zwqj Sm0 S M/ q0 _ S m0 Swgp S m0 S w' q0 _ Su/q 0 Ewq0 If the weights chosen to measure the outputs are w = k, or w = l0, the resulting formula is: S mi SZi?¡ S » i Zi SZi?i Sm 0 SZi^o S<7o¿o SZiffo Xqolo W 128 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS or S¿Q<¡Tj S Wo SZo<7o Zqih 2>l0qi 2<¡r0Zo SZ 0 ?o ^q%lo = (II). Fourth approach. In the fourth approach, commonly used, the variations between the two periods considered in the total labour expended (or labour index) are compared with the variations in the total production between the two periods (or production index): Sm 0 ~Zwqa This formula is, in fact, the same as the previous one, and therefore is also reduced to formula I or formula II when the weights chosen are w = k or w = lo respectively. According to this analysis the two formulae designated as I and II can be expressed in quite different terms, depending on the approach used. Formula I corresponds to any one of the following expressions : (a) the ratio of the total labour required to produce the production composite of the base period with the unit labour requirements of the present period to the total labour actually expended in the base period to produce the same composite; (b) the weighted average of the individual unit labour requirements indices, the weights corresponding to the total labour expended for the output of each product at the base period; (c) the ratio of the average unit labour requirements of the current period to those of the base period, the weights used to measure the output of the two periods corresponding to the unit labour requirements of the current period; (d) the ratio of the index of total labour expended in each period to the index of total output, the weights used to measure the latter corresponding to the unit labour requirements of the current period. Similarly, formula II corresponds to any one of the following expressions : (a) the ratio of the total labour actually expended to produce the current complex of goods to the total labour required to produce the same complex with the unit labour requirements of the base period ; (b) the weighted average of the individual unit labour requirements indices, the weights corresponding to the labour which would be necessary to produce the current output of each product with the base period unit labour requirements; (c) the ratio of the average unit labour requirements of the current period to those of the base period, the weights used to measure 129 APPENDICES the output of the two periods corresponding to the unit labour requirements of the base period ; (d) the ratio of the index of total labour expended in eac h period to the index of total output, the weights used to measure the latter corresponding to the unit labour requirements of the base period. In the first two approaches, whatever the production composites considered or the weights used, the unit labour requirements index is equal to k when for each product k — kl0 (k being a constant), that is, when unit labour requirements have varied in the same proportion for each product, undertaking or industry: If it = klo for each component, S QxH Zi ([xklo S Çx lo k 2JÇX 'o = *, S qx ¿o S Çx lo and - h h_ Sa klo v h Sa = _ « Sa "~Sä" = = k ' On the contrary, in the last two approaches, unit labour requirements indices might differ from k even when k — kl0 for each component, since in this case : Sffít Swt/i = Sffip ~ Sffji S/re¿ S£¿Z¡ s?¿z¡ IiMp _ Zgolo Sç-oio _ 'Lwqi ~ liWqj ~ 'Lwqj 'Zwqo Ew>ç0 kZqilo Sy 0 ¿ 0 "Lwqj Swço _ , 2l0qi Zloqo y Xwq0 Swffj' This is equal to k only when S ¿agi _ S(V<¡Ti S lo q0 S w q0 ' which is true when for each component either w is proportional to k ( = klo), or when wqi _ wq0 Hwqi Tiwqo' Thus, the first two approaches correspond to the first concept of a labour productivity (or unit labour requirements) index, in which the index remains unchanged when each individual productivity (or unit labour requirements) index has remained unchanged; the last two approaches correspond to the second concept, in which the labour productivity (or unit labour requirements) index might vary even when each individual labour productivity (or unit labour requirements) index remains unchanged. It may be shown that the replacement of the data necessary to compute formula I or formula II by some substitute data corresponds to a shift from the first concept to the second one. Formula I can 130 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS be written so as to be very similar to the mathematical expressions of the third and fourth approaches: S q0 li Zçoio ~~ S q0 lo Eçik 2<7o/i _ ïfflo Síigi 2 h q0 imilarly formula I I can be written: S qi k "Lqilo Xqdi S q0 lo S qi l0 Xq0l0 _ Xmi Sfilo S/o^t S lo q0 When so written, formulae I and II correspond to the ratio of a labour index to an index of output, provided that the weights used in the latter are the unit labour requirements of the current or the base period. If substitute weights are used because of the lack of available data, the results obtained do not correspond any longer to formula I or II and in fact involve a shift from the first concept to the second one. It can easily be shown that the formulae where weights w are not proportionate either to k or to l0 correspond to the introduction in the unit labour requirements index of an additional factor directly related to the change in the relative importance of each product, undertaking or industry in the complex ; the following identities can easily be verified : Sffii Sfflo *Zwqi ~Lwq0 SWi Sfflo Zwq, ~Lwq0 Sgok Zq0lo 'Zqili , S(vg 0 SZ0<¡r0 S$t/o Zwqo S lo q0 Xkqi 2/o</i Vk I wqi | w \Lwq% m ^ | lo ( wqj \jv X'Zwqi wq0 \ Zwqo) wq0 I,wq0 The differences between the formulae corresponding to the third and fourth approaches and formulae I and II are nil when: (a) w = kk, or w = klo (k being a constant), for each component; (b) ——ii- = —-3^- for each component. It is on the basis of formulae very similar to those above that S. Fabricant computed the relative influence of " actual " changes in labour productivity and of changes due to the different composition of outputs. 1 Computations for the theoretical but simple examples proposed by D. Weintraub a will give a practical indication of the differences in results that may be observed: 1 2 See pp. 65 et seq. See p. 58. 131 APPENDICES First Approach. (I) = Cá»jí = 0.963 ; £§0Z0 ' Second (II) = - 1 ^ = 0.964. Sgi¿0 Approach. La If'a = 1, -^r1 r i a 7 r s; = - S r = 0.961; if a = Z0, - ^ r - 2 = v T = 0- 9 6 3 - TAW a«<Z Fourth Approaches. The weights for each product as used by D. Weintraub are logically equal to 1, since the plants are manufacturing an identical product: nu (where w = 1) = 1.026. s wqi Zwqo Finally, according to t h e relations shown above, S g-,o _ ^ = M + 0.062. In this case the differences between the various formulae corresponding to the first concept are negligible; on the contrary, differences between those formulae representing different concepts are considerable (6 per cent.), so much so t h a t they outweigh the actual changes in the unit labour requirements t h a t take place in each plant (decreases of 4 and 3 per cent, respectively). APPENDIX II RESOLUTION ADOPTED BY THE SEVENTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF LABOUR STATISTICIANS (GENEVA, OCTOBER 1949) The Seventh International Conference of Labour Statisticians, Having been convened at Geneva by the Governing Body of the International Labour Office, and having met from 26 September to 8 October 1949, and Recognising the importance of labour productivity in relation to social and economic welfare, and therefore the importance of developing accurate methods for measuring the productivity of labour for use in national as well as in international comparisons and analyses, and Noting the especial need for international agreement on the elements of the data to be collected as well as on the methods by which labour productivity is to be measured, Believing that the report prepared by the International Labour Office provides an extremely valuable analysis of the problems encountered in the development and interpretation of statistical measures of labour productivity, Requests the Governing Body of the International Labour Office: 1. To direct the International Labour Office— (a) to communicate this report, together with an account of the discussions on the subject at the present Conference, to Governments as soon as possible, with a request for their comments; (b) to continue its studies of the statistics on labour productivity and in particular to collect and publish data on labour productivity in the different countries; (c) to prepare recommendations on standard international definitions of wage earners, salaried employees, production workers, and on direct and indirect labour for use in labour productivity statistics; (d) to undertake studies of the best methods of measuring labour productivity in non-manufacturing industries; (e) to examine the possibility of obtaining comparable data in the different countries on labour productivity in important basic industries by means of special enquiries, intended to provide breakdowns according to the different phases of the production process, analyses illustrating the influence of various factors, such as size, location of the plant, etc. ; and the collection of information on the techniques followed and on other factors that may influence labour productivity; (f) to collaborate with the United Nations and with other specialised agencies in their work on the development of production and productivity statistics. APPENDICES 133 2. To place the subject of statistics of labour productivity on the agenda of the next session of the International Conference of Labour Statisticians. 3. To give consideration to the desirability of convening, in advance of that Conference, a small meeting of experts on productivity statistics to assist the Office in formulating the proposals to be placed before the Conference. APPENDIX III SELECTED REFERENCES BARN A, T.: " T h e Productivity of Labour: Its Concept and Measurement ", in the Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Statistics, Vol. VIII, No. 7, July 1946. BARTON, G. T., and COOPER, M. R.: " Relation of Agricultural Production to Inputs ", in the Review of Economics and Statistics (Cambridge, Massachusetts), Vol. XXX, 1948. BERGER, H., and LANDSBERG, H. H.: American Agriculture, 1899- 1939, A Study of Output, Employment and Productivity, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1942. BRITISH MINISTRY OF PRODUCTION: Report of the Cotton Textile Mission to the U.S.A., March-April 1944, London, 1944. CLAGUE, E.: Productivity, Employment and Living Standards, Conference on Productivity, Milwaukee, 4 June 1949. COMMISSARIAT GÉNÉRAL DU PLAN: Programme français pour Vaccroissement de la productivité, Paris, Feb. 1949. CONGRESS OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONS: An Evaluation of Bureau of Labor Statistical Data on Productivity, 5 Jan. 1946. DEURINCK, G.: "Mesure de la productivité", in Organisation Scientifique (Brussels), Dec. 1948. EVANS, D., and SIEGEL, I.: " The Meaning of Productivity Indexes ", in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. XXXVII, Mar. 1942. EVANS, D.: " Recent Productivity Trends and their Implications ", in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. XLII, June 1947. FABRICANT, S.: Employment in Manufacturing Industries, 1899-1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1942. FLUX, A. W.: " Industrial Productivity in Great Britain and the United States ", in the Quarterly Journal of Economics (Cambridge, Massachusetts), Vol. XLVIII, Nov. 1933. me FOURASTIÉ, J. : Le grand espoir du XX siècle, Presses Universitaires de France, Paris, 1949. HANSEN, H. E.: "Productivity on the Increase", in Survey of Business Practices, National Industrial Conference Board, New York, June 1948. JEWKES, J. : " Is Britain's Industry Inefficient ? ", in The Manchester School, Vol. XIV, No. 1, Jan. 1946. JEROME, H.: Mechanisation in Industry, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1934. 135 APPENDICES KÄLLSTRÖM, V. : " Efficiency of Industrial Production in Sweden ", in Skandinaviska Banken (quarterly review), Vol. XXVIII, No. 1, Jan. 1947. KURLAT, A.: Notas para una encuesta continental sobre productividad obrera, Consejo interamericano de comercio y producción, Montevideo, 1946. MARKUS, B. L. : " The Stakhanov Movement and the Increased Productivity of Labour in the U.S.S.R.", in the International Labour Review, Vol. XXXIV, July-Dec. 1936. Ou, PAO-SAN, and WANG, FOH-SHEN: " Industrial Production and Employment in Pre-War China ", in the Economic Journal, Vol. LVI, 1946. ROSTAS, L. : Comparative Productivity in British and American Industry, Occasional Papers, No. XIII, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Cambridge University Press, 1948. — " Productivity of Labour in British, American and German Agriculture ", in London and Cambridge Economic Service, Vol. XXIV, Bulletin No. 3. SELEKMAN, B. M. and S. K. : " Productivity and Labour Relations ", in Harvard Business Review, Vol. XXVII, No. 3, May 1949. SIEGEL, I. H.: " T h e Concept of Productive Activity", in t h e Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. XXXIX, Nos. 225228, 1944. TEPER, L.: "This Thing called Productivity", in The American Federationist, Nov. 1948. — Limitations of the Existing Productivity Measures and the Need for New Studies, Conference on Productivity, Washington, 1946. UNITED STATES BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS: Productivity and Unit Labor Cost in Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1919-1940, mimeographed, Feb. 1942. — Productivity and Unit Labor Cost in Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1939-1945, mimeographed, May 1946. — Major Sources of Productivity Information, Washington, June 1949. — Selected References on Productivity, Washington, Oct. 1946. — Summary of Proceedings of the Conference on Productivity, October 28-29, 1946, Bulletin No. 913. UNITED STATES NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL CONFERENCE BOARD: Measuring Labor's Productivity, Feb. 1946. UNITED STATES WORKS PROGRESS ADMINISTRATION, NATIONAL RESEARCH PROJECT: Production, Employment and Productivity in 59 Manufacturing Industries, 1919-1936 (MAGDOFF, H.; SIEGEL, I. H.; and DAVIS, M. B.), May 1929, 3 parts. WEINTRAUB, D.: " Some Measures of Changing Labor Productivity and their Use in Economic Analysis ", in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. XXXIII, Mar. 1938. — and POSNER, H. L.: Unemployment and Increasing Productivity, Works Progress Administration, Technical Resources Committee, Mar. 1937. 136 METHODS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS WILSON, R.: Facts and Fancies on Productivity, The Economic Society of Australia and New Zealand, 1947. WRIGHT, C. D. : Hand and Machine Labor, United States Department of Labor, 13th Annual Report, 1898. WUBNIG, A. : " The Measurement of the Technological Factors in Labor Productivity ", in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. XXXIV, June 1939. See also various articles in the Monthly Labor Review, United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington.