year,incumbent,polling_correlation,economic_correlation,social_correlation,layer_1_combined,layer_2_cascade,layer_3_coherence,predicted_probability,actual_outcome,correct
1956,Eisenhower,0.822,0.817,0.800,0.813,0.891,0.950,0.950,1,1
1960,Nixon,0.626,0.579,0.543,0.583,0.604,0.619,0.619,0,0
1964,Johnson,0.884,0.871,0.828,0.861,0.952,1.019,1.019,1,1
1968,Humphrey,0.639,0.655,0.642,0.645,0.681,0.709,0.709,0,0
1972,Nixon,0.901,0.811,0.816,0.843,0.928,0.992,0.992,1,1
1976,Ford,0.666,0.553,0.586,0.602,0.627,0.646,0.646,0,0
1980,Carter,0.550,0.570,0.595,0.572,0.590,0.603,0.603,0,0
1984,Reagan,0.862,0.854,0.832,0.849,0.937,1.002,1.002,1,1
1988,Bush Sr,0.774,0.850,0.732,0.785,0.857,0.910,0.910,1,1
1992,Bush Sr,0.581,0.592,0.648,0.607,0.634,0.654,0.654,0,0
1996,Clinton,0.772,0.864,0.808,0.815,0.893,0.952,0.952,1,1
2000,Gore,0.553,0.611,0.594,0.586,0.608,0.624,0.624,0,0
2004,Bush Jr,0.827,0.865,0.722,0.805,0.881,0.938,0.938,1,1
2008,McCain,0.634,0.676,0.597,0.636,0.670,0.695,0.695,0,0
2012,Obama,0.824,0.836,0.727,0.796,0.870,0.925,0.925,1,1
2016,Clinton,0.552,0.676,0.602,0.610,0.638,0.658,0.658,0,0
2020,Trump,0.603,0.591,0.655,0.616,0.645,0.667,0.667,0,0
2024,Harris,0.623,0.636,0.569,0.610,0.637,0.657,0.657,0,0