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Published December 30, 2025 | Version v1
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Cyclicality of Public Health Expenditures: A Comparative Analysis of Türkiye and OECD Countries

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  • 1. ROR icon Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa

Contributors

  • 1. ROR icon Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa

Description

 

Purpose: The aim of this study is to analyze the cyclical behavior of public health expenditures in the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and to provide a comparative evaluation regarding Türkiye.

 

Method: The cyclical components of real gross domestic product (GDP) and public health expenditures were decomposed using the Hodrick–Prescott filter. The estimation of cyclicality coefficients was carried out through a panel regression model. The analyses were conducted in the R software environment, and cross-validation was performed in EViews to test the robustness of the model.

 

Findings: The results show that the series of real GDP (gdp) and public health expenditures (health_exp) are stationary at their first differences and that the model was estimated reliably. The Granger causality test across OECD countries did not reveal a statistically significant relationship between health expenditures and economic growth. In contrast, in Türkiye, a unidirectional and statistically significant causality from health expenditures to economic growth was identified (F=50.651; p=0.0087). The cyclicality coefficients indicate that public health expenditures are mostly counter-cyclical in OECD countries, while Türkiye shows a positive coefficient, reflecting a pro-cyclical tendency where expenditures increase during periods of economic expansion.

 

Conclusion: The findings show that public health expenditures are not a passive budget item against economic cycles but function as a supporting element of macroeconomic stability. While the counter-cyclical pattern of health expenditures strengthens stability in OECD countries, the pro-cyclical tendency in Türkiye reveals that health policies are integrated with growth-oriented fiscal strategies.

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