Title of Publication: "African youth and the future of democracy: How youth bulge, urbanization, and social media shape youth political attitudes and participation" Description: WORKING PAPER: MEGATRENDS AFRIKA PROJECT Author1:Christine Hackenesch, Project Manager, MTA. IDOS, Bonn Author 2: Godfred Bonnah Nkansah, Faculty Member, Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre, Accra-Ghana; Executive Director, Development Advocacy Initiative-Africa (DAI-Africa), Accra-Ghana. Contact: Christine.Hackenesch@idos-research.de; bonnah-nkansah@dai-africa.org REPLICATION CODE FOR ANALYSIS OF MULTILEVEL BINARY MODELS List of Variables 1. Voted_recoded---Voting in national elections 2. Age---Age of respondents 3. Gender_recoded---Gender of respondents 4. Rural_urban ---Residence of respondent 5. Religion_recoded ---Religion of respondent 6. Social_Media_recoded ---Use of social media by respondent 7. Internet_recoded ---Use of internet by respondent 8. Attend_CM_recoded ---Attendance to Community Meetings by Respondent 9. Educ_recoded ---Educational attainment of respondent 10. Employ_recoded ---Employment status of respondent 11. Dis_pol_recoded ---Discussion of politics by reponsent 12. Satdem_recoded ---Satisfaction with democracy 13. Indiv_Internet ---National coverage of Individual internet use 14. YBR ---Youth bulge ratio 15. VDEM ---Variety of democracy liberal democracy index 16. Labor_force1524 ---Labor force participation for 15-24 years olds 17. log_GDP ---GDP per capital at purchasing power parity 2021 18 Attend_demo_recoded ---Joining demonstrations and protests. 19. country_id---Country fixed effects 20. Suppdem_recoded---Support for democracy 1.0 MODEL DIAGNOSTICS 1.1 ICC = (model variance/(model variance +3.29))*100% mixed Suppdem_recoded||Countries:, reml estat icc 1.2 Variance Inflation Factor reg Voted_recoded Age Gender_recoded Rural_urban Religion_recoded Social_Media_recoded Internet_recoded Attend_CM_recoded Educ_recoded Employ_recoded Dis_pol_recoded Satdem_recoded Indiv_Internet YBR VDEM Labor_force1524 log_GDP vif 1.3 Multicorlinearity pwcorr Voted_recoded Age Gender_recoded Rural_urban Religion_recoded Social_Media_recoded Internet_recoded Attend_CM_recoded Educ_recoded Employ_recoded Dis_pol_recoded Satdem_recoded Indiv_Internet YBR VDEM Labor_force1524 log_GDP , sig star(.05) 2.0 DESCRIPTIVE GRAPHS 2.1 graph hbar (mean) YBR, over(Countries, label(angle(0) labsize(vsmall)) sort(1)) ylabel(, angle(0)) bar(1, color("87 37 42 26")) 2.2 graph hbar (mean) Attend_demo_recoded, over(Countries, label(angle(0) labsize(vsmall)) sort(1)) ylabel(, angle(0)) bar(1, color("87 37 42 26")) 2.3 graph hbar (mean) Voted_recoded, over(Countries, label(angle(0) labsize(vsmall)) sort(1)) ylabel(, angle(0)) bar(1, color("87 37 42 26")) 2.4 graph hbar (mean)Suppdem_recoded , over(Countries, label(angle(0) labsize(vsmall)) sort(1)) ylabel(, angle(0)) bar(1, color("87 37 42 26")) 2.5 Command for two decimal labels on graphs: format %9.2f 3.0 Additive Model [Voting, Support for Democracy and Demonstrations] meologit Suppdem_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Rural_urban i. Religion_recoded i.Social_Media_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Educ_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded c.Indiv_Internet c.YBR c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c.log_GDP || Countries :, noci esttab using suppdem.csv, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) /// star(* 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) stats(N p chi2, fmt (0 3 3)) meologit Voted_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Rural_urban i. Religion_recoded i.Social_Media_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Educ_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded c.Indiv_Internet c.YBR c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c.log_GDP || Countries :, noci esttab using voted.csv, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) /// star(* 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) stats(N p chi2, fmt (0 3 3)) meologit Attend_demo_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Rural_urban i. Religion_recoded i.Social_Media_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Educ_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded c.Indiv_Internet c.YBR c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c.log_GDP || Countries :, noci esttab using demo.csv, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) /// star(* 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) stats(N p chi2, fmt (0 3 3)) 4.0 Interaction Models[Voting, Support for Democracy and Demonstrations] meologit Suppdem_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR c.Indiv_Internet c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c. log_GDP || Countries :, noci esttab using suppdem1.csv, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) /// star(* 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) stats(N p chi2, fmt (0 3 3)) meologit Voted_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR c.Indiv_Internet c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c. log_GDP || Countries :, noci esttab using voted2.csv, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) /// star(* 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) stats(N p chi2, fmt (0 3 3)) meologit Attend_demo_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR c.Indiv_Internet c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c. log_GDP || Countries :, noci esttab using demo2.csv, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) /// star(* 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) stats(N p chi2, fmt (0 3 3)) 5.0 Interaction plots Standard Plot 5.1 Youth bulge and Social Media use sometimes on demonstrations meologit Attend_demo_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i.Religion_recoded /// i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded /// i.Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR /// c.Indiv_Internet c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c.log_GDP || Countries :, noci margins, at(YBR=(20(10)60) Social_Media_recoded=1) predict(fixedonly) marginsplot, x(YBR) /// plotopts(lcolor("0 102 114") mcolor("0 102 114")) 5.2 Youth bulge and social media use always on voting meologit Voted_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i.Religion_recoded /// i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded /// i.Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR /// c.Indiv_Internet c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c.log_GDP || Countries :, noci margins, at(YBR=(20(10)60) Social_Media_recoded=(2)) predict(fixedonly) marginsplot, x(YBR) /// plotopts(lcolor("0 102 114") mcolor("0 102 114")) 5.3 Interflex Model [didn't work. Interflex could not competently estimate the interaction of a continous independent variable and a categorical independent variable] keep if Social_Media_recoded == 1 // Restrict to category 1 interflex Attend_demo_recoded Social_Media_recoded YBR Age Gender_recoded /// Rural_urban Religion_recoded Internet_recoded Attend_CM_recoded /// Educ_recoded Employ_recoded Dis_pol_recoded Satdem_recoded /// Indiv_Internet VDEM Labor_force1524 log_GDP, type(kernel) interflex Attend_demo_recoded YBR Social_Media_recoded =1 Age Gender_recoded Rural_urban Religion_recoded Social_Media_recoded Internet_recoded Attend_CM_recoded Educ_recoded Employ_recoded Dis_pol_recoded Satdem_recoded Indiv_Internet YBR VDEM Labor_force1524 log_GDP, type(kerne) Cross-validating bandwidth... The optimal bandwidth is 0.4112 6.0 ROBUSTNESS CHECKS WITH COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS 6.1 Additive Models with Country Fixed Effects (For all three Dependent variables) meologit Suppdem_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Rural_urban i. Religion_recoded i.Social_Media_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Educ_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded c.Indiv_Internet c.YBR c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c.log_GDP i. country_id || Countries :, noci meologit Attend_demo_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Rural_urban i. Religion_recoded i.Social_Media_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Educ_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded c.Indiv_Internet c.YBR c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c.log_GDP i. country_id || Countries :, noci meologit Voted_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Rural_urban i. Religion_recoded i.Social_Media_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Educ_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded c.Indiv_Internet c.YBR c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c.log_GDP i. country_id || Countries :, noci 6.2 Interaction Models with Country Fixed Effects (For Voting and Attending Demonstrations) meologit Voted_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR c.Indiv_Internet c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c. log_GDP i. country_id || Countries :, noci meologit Attend_demo_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR c.Indiv_Internet c.VDEM c.Labor_force1524 c. log_GDP i. country_id || Countries :, noci 6.3 Further ROBUSTNESS Tests with parsimonious Models for interactions with only Individual level Control Variables meologit Voted_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR || Countries :, noci meologit Attend_demo_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR || Countries :, noci meologit Suppdem_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR || Countries :, noci 6.4 Further ROBUSTNESS Tests with parsimoniousous Models for interactions with all Individual level Control Variables, and selected country level variables. meologit Voted_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR || Countries :, noci meologit Attend_demo_recoded c.Age i.Gender_recoded i.Educ_recoded i. Religion_recoded i.Internet_recoded i.Attend_CM_recoded i.Employ_recoded i.Dis_pol_recoded i. Satdem_recoded i.Rural_urban##i.Social_Media_recoded##c.YBR c.Indiv_Internet || Countries :, noci Preferred Megatrends Color Codes For Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 4: #006672 RGB 0/102/114 CMYK 87/37/42/26 BITV S:3,14/W:6,68 For Figure 3: #006672 RGB 0/102/114 CMYK 87/37/42/26 BITV S:3,14/W:6,68 And #FC5900 RGB 252/89/0 CMYK ≈69/10/52/8 BITV S:6,57/W:3,2 Figure 5, Figure 6, Figure 7: #E4F6F9 RGB 228/246/249 CMYK 13/0/4/0 BITV S:18,85/W:1,11