The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever
Creators
- Lim, Ahyoung (Contact person)1
- Shearer, Freya M.2
- Sewalk, Kara3
- Pigott, David M.4
- Clarke, Joseph5
- Ghouse, Azhar1
- Judge, Ciara1
- Kang, Hyolim1
- Messina, Jane P.6
- Kraemer, Moritz U. G.6
- Gaythorpe, Katy A. M.7
- de Souza, William M.8
- Nsoesie, Elaine O.9
- Celone, Michael4
- Faria, Nuno7
- Ryan, Sadie J.10
- Rabe, Ingrid B.11
- Rojas, Diana P.11
- Hay, Simon I.4
- Brownstein, John S.12
- Golding, Nick13
- Brady, Oliver J.1
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1.
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
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2.
The University of Melbourne
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3.
Boston Children's Hospital
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4.
University of Washington
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5.
University of Cambridge
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6.
University of Oxford
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7.
Imperial College London
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8.
University of Kentucky
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9.
Boston University
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10.
University of Florida
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11.
World Health Organization
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12.
Harvard Medical School
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13.
University of Melbourne
Description
Abstract
Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats.
Files
s41467-025-58609-5.pdf
Files
(2.9 MB)
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Additional details
Identifiers
Funding
- European Commission
- E4Warning – Eco-Epidemiological Intelligence for early Warning and response to mosquito-borne disease risk in Endemic and Emergence settings 101086640
- UK Research and Innovation
- E4WARNING: ECO-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL INTELLIGENCE FOR EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE TO MOSQUITO-BORNE DISEASE RISK IN ENDEMIC AND EMERGENCE SETTINGS 10066422
Dates
- Available
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2025-04-10
Software
- Repository URL
- https://github.com/ahyoung-lim/Arbo_riskmaps_public
- Programming language
- R
- Development Status
- Active