La Reconstitución de las Fuerzas Armadas Rusas tras la Guerra en Ucrania

Review of “La Reconstitución de las Fuerzas Armadas Rusas tras la Guerra en Ucrania” by Andrés Cosialls

In the second issue of the Boletín CODESEL (2025), Professor Andrés Cosialls offers a cogent and multidimensional legal-political analysis of the future restructuring of the Russian Armed Forces following the protracted conflict in Ukraine. His article, anchored in both legal doctrine and international security studies, effectively situates the Russian postwar military scenario within a broader framework of global strategic recalibration and legal accountability.

Cosialls begins by diagnosing the systemic weaknesses exposed in the Russian military during the Ukrainian war—specifically, logistical dysfunctions, command fragmentation, and outdated Soviet-style operational doctrines. Importantly, he foregrounds the legal implications of Russia’s actions under International Humanitarian Law (IHL), including possible war crimes and violations of the UN Charter. This juridical lens sets the stage for a more profound investigation into how international law will influence future Russian military configurations.

Central to the article is the critical engagement with the RAND Corporation’s 2025 report, Russia’s Military After Ukraine, which delineates four hypothetical pathways for Russia’s military reconstitution. Cosialls assesses these scenarios—ranging from a conservative restoration of pre-war models to a transformative doctrinal shift towards Western-style professionalism—not merely from a strategic or technical perspective, but through a meticulous legal-political evaluation. He considers, for example, the tension between enhanced conscription models and human rights protections under international law, and underscores the incompatibility of certain militarization strategies with modern legal standards of accountability and civilian oversight.

One of the most insightful contributions is Cosialls’ reflection on the intersection of internal legitimacy, geopolitical pressures, and international sanctions. He astutely argues that the Russian government’s ability to choose and sustain a particular reform path will depend on political stability, technological self-reliance (especially under Western embargoes), and the broader configuration of alliances with states like China and Iran. Particularly notable is his assertion that the nature of this military reconstitution will serve not only as a signal of Russia’s internal evolution but also as a determinant of NATO posture and European security dynamics.

The conclusion, framed with juridical foresight, asserts that Russia’s choices in restructuring its military will profoundly affect the long-term balance of the international order. Whether Moscow pursues modernization, intensifies autarkic militarization, or aligns more closely with global standards of military law, these decisions will reflect broader strategic orientations and legal identities.

Cosialls’ work stands out for its ability to merge doctrinal legal analysis with strategic foresight. His methodology, grounded in contemporary international law and enriched by comparative political theory, ensures that the piece transcends simple policy commentary. It is a compelling example of legal scholarship that understands defense reform not as a purely national security issue, but as a process intrinsically bound to the evolution of legal norms, political legitimacy, and global stability.