Published April 7, 2025 | Version v1
Working paper Open

Irregular Migration: What can Mortality Reveal?

  • 1. ROR icon Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Description

This study explores mortality data as a basis for estimating the irregular migrant population, a technique labelled “mortality extrapolation”. Using Belgian data, it demonstrates that mortality can be a reliable and methodologically sound basis for gauging not only the size of mobile populations, but also their evolution over time, offering granularity in terms of age groups and gender. The technique boosts significant advantages over traditional methods, such as reliance on well-established demographic tools, unbiased observation of basic indicators and a transparent basis for calculating extrapolation factors. Given the type of data that it requires, the method offers promising prospects for broader international implementation.

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MIRREM-Surkyn and Bircan-2025-What Can Mortality Reveal-v1.pdf

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Additional details

Funding

European Commission
MIrreM – Measuring Irregular Migration and related Policies 101061314
UK Research and Innovation
Measuring Irregular Migration and related Policies (MIrreM) 10041473
Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council
Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration and Integration, Toronto Metropolitan University 0

Dates

Submitted
2025-04-07