content: So the way I understand Bayes is that there are certain 'stochastic' processes where there's too much detail to have a full understanding of ground truth. E.g., there are too many atoms in the dice, too many ways gene variation can manifest, too many positions the electron can be in, too many neurons in too many brains reacting to too many natural and socialogical phenomena, etc. We cope with it as best we can. When making a prediction about the outcome of such a process, we make our best educated guess based on our experience to date. If we don't have much experience with the process, we'll have low confidence. As we interact with the process and collect data, Bayes provides a formula for updating our best guess and also measuring our confidence as it increases. The numbers we plug into the formula are just a count of the observations we've made to date.  I want to know the probability that all atoms of the universe are physically interconnected by invisible electromagnetic ropes.  Bayes can only help you with that if you've been able to confirm that all of the atoms you've examined so far are indeed interconnected as you describe. If so, you can add new counts to the formula to update your probability as you test new batches of atoms. I think you might also need the count of all the untested atoms as well.