Nope. The balance of power is different as former Y was a subordinate power, and after Tito' s demise, left a power vacuum.  When I was in Y in 75, the " regional"  differences were already there. When looking at it from this perspective, you see the same issue all over Africa in each country where the people of a country are not homogeneous. So, the natural tension is present, due to cultural and moral differences.  It is not that the majority of those countries want a war, it is just that there are always those who stir up shit, that requires a response.  You can see this already in the Chad situation, and the hard stance the dem governors/ mayors take to refuse to defend law and order. Without this cover, the divisive nature would not have grown in such fashion.