I think 20-30% voting for Trump is huge, given that no republican has gotten more than 5% of the black vote in generations.  When has anyone ever seen anything like this?    Maybe Op didn't see the original estimates that for Dems to never win an election again republicans only needed to poach 10% of Blacks off the plantation.  Closer to the election that 20-30% now esposing support for trump will easily increase by another 10%.  Incumbents always poll more popular right before election.