I think you are spot on with where the numbers are getting hijacked. I don't believe them either. But, are they too low, or are they too high?  That being said, there are certain hot spots, like NY and SoCa that are getting hit. If not for the fact that POTUS acted promptly, despite what the media claims, we would be in a much different situation. The areas which are getting hammered, did not take the warnings and unfortunately the public suffers for the TDS of their officials. To comment on the OP, this is coming from doctors in the ER and Intensive Care Units where they are dealing with numbers of sick people. This information is not from the CDC or any other government agency. The clinicians on the front lines are treating all suspected cases of COVID with seriousness. They have found that in the hot spots, health care workers who came in contact with people who presented with no symptoms that later went on to develop infection, those health care workers also went on to develop infections because the worker was not adequately protected. In Washington, an area hard hit, there is an ER physician in critical condition as a result of COVID-19. He is in his 40s.  This is a rapidly changing situation and they are learning as they go. Therefore, now they are treating all suspect respiratory issues, no matter how slight at the time, as possible COVID cases. This virus can infect in the absence of symptoms unlike the flu or a cold. Those who come in and are sick enough to be intubated, mostly do not have good outcomes. They have noticed that the majority of these severely ill patients are obese, male, and have either hypertension and/or diabetes. These are risk factors that seem to increase the likelihood of poor outcomes due to cytokine storm. These patients who go on to develop this second phase after Acute Respiratory Failure are not recovering. They are also starting to see a reduction in the ages of the people having to be placed on respirators. This could be an indication of a mutating virus.  With ICUs already filled to capacity, additional critically ill patients are overwhelming the ICU of these major hospitals in metropolitan areas. Most ICU only have room for 15 beds. Many have had to expand that to 30 and have appropriated other areas of the hospitals for additional patients. This is where the real crisis is. There is not enough room for these really sick patients and they cannot be moved to other hospitals who may have beds available in their ICU. Critically ill patients require 24/7 around the clock monitoring and support. The staff in these units are stretched to the limit and some are not operating at full capacity because the staff have become sick themselves. This is not occurring everywhere, obviously. But where it is occurring it is serious. Some are saying that the number of new cases is going down but we have in no way plateaued yet. I think for most Americans the battle is unseen. It is occurring in the ER departments of certain major cities. If it remains contained there and runs it course, the rest of the country will be fine and we will have dodged the bullet.  Another thing that is occurring is the overall number of ER visits is down because people are staying home because they are afraid. This may cause some to delay treatment for other conditions not related to COVID. This may explain why some hospitals are so quiet. That is what I am hearing from the ER docs. So stay safe everyone.