Green hydrogen futures in LMICs: opportunities for fertiliser and steel production in Kenya

Green hydrogen is often presented as a promising driver of green industrial development in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), with national strategies balancing local applications promoting sustainable development alongside export opportunities. Country-level energy system models can help identify no-regret options by comparing the costs of locally producing green alternatives to market prices of conventional goods, reducing the risk of uneconomic investments that could hinder local development. In this study, we present an open-source capacity expansion model for Kenya to explore the potential role of green hydrogen in local fertiliser and steel industries under various market and electrolyser technology development scenarios. With abundant renewable energy resources, Kenya could produce hydrogen at 2.7–3.7 USD/kg, making local fertiliser and steel production competitive from the second half of the 2030s under favourable market conditions. The Kenya case study offers valuable insights for other LMICs as they design and implement their own national strategies.