METADATA DESCRIPTION

For a detailed description of the methodology for collating and summarising the data see 

Past and future effects of climate on the metapopulation dynamics of a NorthEast Atlantic seabird across two centuries
Jana WE Jeglinski, Holly I Niven, Sarah Wanless, Robert T. Barrett, Mike P. Harris, Jochen Dierschke and Jason Matthiopoulos

1) Gannet colony census data
Gannet colony census data 1900 - 2016. These data are additionally available at the Enlighten database of the university of Glasgow https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/1286 since they pertain to publication Jeglinski et al. (2023), but are also uploaded here as per data accessibility requirements of Ecology Letters.

gannets_master_complete_updated.csv

1.1) description of columns

Year - numerical value of year in which census was performed
Region - country name where colony is located
Status - empty for clones, colonisation attempt for small, impermanent colonisation attempts, definition see Jeglinski et al. (2023)
regional_seas - biogeographic region in which colony is located, for definitions and categorisation see Jeglinski et al (2023)
Colony - Colony name
N - geographic North coordinate of colony location
E - geographic East coordinate of colony location
AOS - colony size in Apparently Occupied Sites (definition see Jeglinski et al. 2023)
colonisation_year - year of colonisation
extinction_year - year of extinction
disturbance - text description of notable disturbances that influenced AOS 
Harvest - factor indicating if colony is harvested (1) or not (0)
harvest_total - number of gannets harvested, sum of tow following columns (information is likely incomplete and thus not used in model, see Jeglinski et al 2023)
harvest_ad - number of adults harvested (information is likely incomplete and thus not used in model, see Jeglinski et al 2023)
harvest_guga - number of gugas (chicks) harvested (information is likely incomplete and thus not used in model, see Jeglinski et al 2023)
harvest_remarks - comments on harvest information
remarks - general comments on data entry
count_method - description of method used for count

2) Colony metadata
Table giving overview over gannet colony data required to add context to posterior output of state space model. These data are additionally available at the Enlighten database of the university of Glasgow https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/1286 since they pertain to publication Jeglinski et al. (2023), but are also uploaded here as per data accessibility requirements of Ecology Letters.

Colonies.csv. 

2.1) description of columns

Colony - colony name
Region - country name where colony is located
regional_seas - biogeographic region in which colony is located, for definitions and categorisation see Jeglinski et al (2023)
N - geographic North coordinate of colony location
E - geographic East coordinate of colony location
Colonisation_year - year of colonisation
Extinction_year - year of extinction
NOBS - number of years with count data available 1900 - 2016
ColonyAge - Age of colony, calculated as 2016 - colonization_year
Terrestrial.CC - expert elicited estimate of terrestrial carrying capacity

3) climate covariates for best model 

The climate data matrix contains colony-specific annual covariate values averaged for February - September for each colony in the NorthEast Atlantic gannet metapopulation. 
Covariates are hindcasts derived from the HadGem 3.1 -MM climate model and forecasts for the SSP1 and SSP5 climate change scenario. 

Files labelled are associated with climate data of the covariates near surface air temperature (nsAT), sea surface temperature (SSP), and precipitation (prec): 
weighted_”covariate name”_1900_2016_actual.csv
weighted_”covariate name”_SSP1_2015-2100_actual.csv
weighted_”covariate name”_SSP5_2015-2100_actual.csv

3.1) description of columns

Matrix of colony and year specific climate covariate data
Row 1-53 - all colonies including extinct colonies
Columns - years 

4) matrix of colony specific HPAIV mortality required for forecasting 

HPAI_colonies_matrix.csv

4.1) description of columns

Header (top row) - colony name
2nd header (2nd row) - colony ID

1st column from row 3 onwards - year from 1900 - 2100
Columns from column 2 - year specific survival values for HPAI outbreak, 
	1 = no added HPAI survival reduction, NA = colonies not monitored, survival value estimated by model as described in manuscript; 0.455 - reduced survival due to HPAI; 

5) The gannet fecundity dataset 
collated by the Seabird Monitoring Programme. The raw data is available at https://jncc.gov.uk/our-work/smp-report-1986-2019 (Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC). The csv file we provide here is sorted by year and colony.

Fecundity-data-sorted.csv

5.1) description of columns

1st column: number of data entries
Colony - colony name
Year - year counted from 1900, where 1900= 1
totAON - number of nest sites in study site
totYoung - number of chicks in study site
Year_real - Year in actual Gregorian notation
ColID - colony ID

6) posterior data from Jeglinski et al (2023), required to determine existing colonies in 2016 in preparation for plotting Figure 5]

posterior_run69.csv

6.1) description of columns

regional_seas_split - regional seas split into 15 units, definition and rationale see Jeglinski et al. (2023)
ColID - colony ID
Parameter - parameter name
Lower95 - lower confidence limit for the highest posterior density (HPD) credible interval corresponding to 5 % credible intervals
Median - Median estimate unit AOS
Upper95 - higher confidence limit for the highest posterior density (HPD) credible interval corresponding to 95 % credible intervals
Mean - Mean estimate unit AOS
Mode - Mode estimate unit AOS
MCerr - Monte Carlo Standard error associated with variable
MC.ofSD - Monte Carlo Standard Error expressed as percentage of the standard deviation
SSeff - effective sample size
AC.100 - autocorrelation of sample
Psrf - potential scale reduction factor
Year - year counted from 1900, where 1900= 1
regional_seas_spID - Id of split regional seas from 1 -15
Colony - colony name
Colonisation_year - year of colonisation
N - geographic North coordinate of colony location
E - geographic East coordinate of colony location
Extinction_year - year of extinction
locCC - posterior mean  estimate of local carrying capacity
regCC - posterior mean estimate of  regional carrying capacity

7) NUDs (polygons of colony specific null distributions based on posterior estimate of colony size in 2030, 2065 and 2100)
Required for plotting Figure 5 - based on climate change scenario SSP1 (see text)

99_isopleth_2030.shp
99_isopleth_2065.shp
99_isopleth_2100.shp

Bibliography

Jeglinski, J. W.E. , Wanless, S., Murray, S., Barrett, R. T., Gardarsson, A., Harris, M. P., Dierschke, J., Strøm, H., Lorentsen, S.-H. and Matthiopoulos, J.  (2023) Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: insights from a century of seabird colony census data. Ecological Monographs, 93(2), e1569. (doi: 10.1002/ecm.1569)