Preprint Open Access

Wind models and cross-site interpolation for the refugee reception islands in Greece

Harris Georgiou

Abstract --- In this study, the wind data series from five locations in Aegean Sea islands, the most active `hotspots' in terms of refugee influx during the Oct/2015 - Jan/2016 period, are investigated. The analysis of the three-per-site data series includes standard statistical analysis and parametric distributions, auto-correlation analysis, cross-correlation analysis between the sites, as well as various ARMA models for estimating the feasibility and accuracy of such spatio-temporal linear regressors for predictive analytics. Strong correlations are detected across specific sites and appropriately trained ARMA(7,5) models achieve 1-day look-ahead error (RMSE) of less than 1.9 km/h on average wind speed. The results show that such data-driven statistical approaches are extremely useful in identifying unexpected and sometimes counter-intuitive associations between the available spatial data nodes, which is very important when designing corresponding models for short-term forecasting of sea condition, especially average wave height and direction, which is in fact what defines the associated weather risk of crossing these passages in refugee influx patterns.

Ref.No: HG/DA.0725.01v1 – Licensed under Creative Commons (BY-NC-SA) 4.0 - Copyright (c) 2017 Harris Georgiou.
Files (727.7 kB)
Name Size
aegean-winds-grid.pdf
md5:b87dffee2175e4e44e8bbcda878c547c
727.7 kB Download
14
3
views
downloads
All versions This version
Views 1414
Downloads 33
Data volume 2.2 MB2.2 MB
Unique views 1414
Unique downloads 33

Share

Cite as