Project deliverable Open Access

Migration scenarios and their demographic impacts for the EU member states

Yildiz, Dilek; van Wissen, Leo; Olaya-Bucaro, Orlando; K.C., Samir

This deliverable both analyses the output for each migration scenario projected in Task 4.3 separately and compares different scenarios over time.

At the total EU level FUME scenarios projected similar total population counts with small differences. The highest EU population in 2050 is projected by Scenario B - Recovery in Europe, stagnation in developing countries at around 518.8 million, and the lowest population is projected by No migration scenario at 387.2 million inhabitants. At national level, population sizes and compositions of the member states and the UK show more variability. Some countries are expected to experience sharp population decline at all FUME scenarios while others experience population growth. In the case of zero migration, all member states are expected to experience population decline, albeit at different paces.

Migration flow composition in FUME scenarios is driven by the economical migration model presented in Deliverable 4.2 (D 4.2) and takes into account the size of diaspora and economic factors. Therefore, no surprising new origin-destination country pairs are emerging. However, when future migration flows are broken down by educational attainment the ranking of sending countries change in some cases, such as in France and Spain.

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