CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100
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Description
This work includes Business As Usual (BAU) forecast of the world’s global CO2 emissions per capita (CpC) in the period 2020-2100.
The CO2 emission forecast is from the publication “Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors” [3]. According to this publication, the CO2 emissions without international transport will change from 33,803 MtCO2/y in 2020 to 70,191 MtCO2/y in 2100, a 108% increase.
The population forecast applies a parabolic trendline of the last 30 years. According to this calculation, the world population will change from 7,795 million in 2020 to 15,206 million in 2100, a 95% increase.
CO2 emissions per capita (CpC) are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions per year by the population in the same year.
The world CpC was 4.3366 tCO2/y,cap in 2020. The BAU CpC forecast for 2100 is 4.6160 tCO2/y,cap, 6.4% increase.
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CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100.pdf
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References
- Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu, Bobbie Macdonald and Pablo Rosado - Data on CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Our World in Data https://github.com/owid/co2-data#data-on-co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-our-world-in-data
- Our World in Data, Cumulative CO2 emissions, 2020 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions
- Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors - Joseph Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7151890
- Dataset CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100 – Joseph Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264409