Nowarski, Joseph
2022-06-06
<p>This publication introduces four methods to forecast the global surface temperature over land and ocean (global warming).</p>
<p>The methods include a parabolic trendline of the last 61 years of global warming and cumulated CO2 emissions.</p>
<p>Two other methods apply the velocity and the acceleration of global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.</p>
<p>The relation between the global surface temperature change and the change in the cumulative CO2 emissions was determined in previous publications as 0.000745°C/GtCO2.</p>
<p>The average result from all four methods for the business as usual CO2 mitigation scenario is 4.4°C (4.1°C -5.0°C).</p>
<p>According to this forecast, the global temperature change will reach 1.5°C in 2031 (9 years from now) and 2.0°C in 2047 (25 years from now).</p>
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6621042
oai:zenodo.org:6621042
eng
Zenodo
https://zenodo.org/communities/climatechange
https://zenodo.org/communities/biu-israel
https://zenodo.org/communities/asian-institute-of-technology
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6621041
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
Climate Change
Global Warming
cumulative CO2
Global Warming forecast
global temperature forecast
CO2 mitigation
Climate Justice
Carbon Justice
Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors
info:eu-repo/semantics/article