Journal article Open Access

Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors

Nowarski, Joseph

This publication introduces four methods to forecast the global surface temperature over land and ocean (global warming).

The methods include a parabolic trendline of the last 61 years of global warming and cumulated CO2 emissions.

Two other methods apply the velocity and the acceleration of global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.

The relation between the global surface temperature change and the change in the cumulative CO2 emissions was determined in previous publications as 0.000745°C/GtCO2.

The average result from all four methods for the business as usual CO2 mitigation scenario is 4.4°C (4.1°C -5.0°C).

According to this forecast, the global temperature change will reach 1.5°C in 2031 (9 years from now) and 2.0°C in 2047 (25 years from now).

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  • Global Surface Temperature Changes Datasets Converted to 1850-1900 Baseline v1.1.2 – Joseph Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.6461153

  • Global Warming Acceleration v1.2.1 - Joseph Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.6616928

  • Global Warming: Velocity and Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions version 2.2.1 – Joseph Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.6617814

  • Global Warming and Cumulative CO2 – Joseph Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.6619550

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