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Dynamically Identifying Community-level COVID-19 Impact Risks

Seitz, William; Eldor Tulyakov; Obid Hakimov; Avralt-od Purevjav; Sevilya Muradova

We build a new database of highly spatially disaggregated indicators related to risk and resilience to the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Uzbekistan. The outbreak disproportionately affects particular groups – the elderly, the poor, those living in areas under lockdown, and families who rely on remittance income are all examples of groups that are especially vulnerable to effects of the crisis in Uzbekistan. We assemble indicators summarizing concentrations of these and other risk factors at the lowest administrative level in the country, neighborhood-sized units called mahallas. Local official administrative statistics (published for the first time in this study) are combined with monthly panel survey data from the ongoing Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan project to produce an overall risk index, which is decomposable by dimension or risk factor to inform targeted and issue-specific responses. We then demonstrate a process for updating key indicators (such as employment or remittance flows) on a monthly basis using linked survey data combined with small area estimation techniques. These neighborhood-level results are intended to improve resource allocation decisions and are particularly relevant in Uzbekistan where local representatives are responsible for implementing key social and economic programs to respond to the outbreak.

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