4579857
doi
10.5281/zenodo.4579857
oai:zenodo.org:4579857
user-covid-19
Christopher I. Jarvis
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
W. John Edmunds
Nicholas P. Jewell
Karla Diaz-Ordaz
Ruth H. Keogh
Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7
Nicholas G. Davies
doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03426-1
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
<p>Analysis code and data for</p>
<p><strong>Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7</strong></p>
<p>Nicholas G. Davies<sup>1†</sup>, Christopher I. Jarvis<sup>1</sup>, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, W. John Edmunds<sup>1</sup>, Nicholas P. Jewell<sup>2,3</sup>, Karla Diaz-Ordaz<sup>2,3</sup>*, Ruth H. Keogh<sup>2,3</sup>*</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03426-1">Article published in <em>Nature</em> (2021)</a></strong></p>
<p>1. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</p>
<p>2. Department of Medical Statistics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</p>
<p>3. Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</p>
<p><sup>†</sup>Corresponding author. E-mail: <a href="mailto:nicholas.davies@lshtm.ac.uk">nicholas.davies@lshtm.ac.uk</a></p>
<p>*Equal contribution</p>
<p> </p>
<p>This repository is maintained at <a href="http://github.com/nicholasdavies/cfrvoc">https://github.com/nicholasdavies/cfrvoc</a>.</p>
<p><strong>SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant first detected in the UK in September 2020, has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than preexisting variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity. Here we analyse a dataset linking 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 COVID-19 deaths in England from 1 September 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because of mutations in this lineage preventing PCR amplification of the spike gene target (S gene target failure, SGTF). Based on 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% CI 39–72%) higher after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, care home residence, local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55–69-year-old male increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% CI 0.8–1.0%) within 28 days after a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate a 61% (42–82%) higher hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than preexisting SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.</strong></p>
Zenodo
2021-03-04
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
4579856
user-covid-19
1
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md5:2849e1f77bef3e990cef574b7d52c406
https://zenodo.org/records/4579857/files/cfrvoc.zip
public
10.1038/s41586-021-03426-1
Is cited by
doi
10.5281/zenodo.4579856
isVersionOf
doi
Nature
2021-03-04