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Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series

Severin Kaderli; Thomas L. Frölicher; Friedrich Burger


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    <subfield code="u">Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</subfield>
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    <subfield code="u">Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</subfield>
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    <subfield code="a">Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series</subfield>
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    <subfield code="a">&lt;p&gt;The aim of this thesis is to analyze climate time series for abrupt changes.&lt;br&gt;
The time series are based on data provided by simulations of the Earth&lt;br&gt;
System Model GFDL ESM2M and consist of a historical period and&lt;br&gt;
a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) period, where high&lt;br&gt;
emissions of greenhouse gases are assumed. The annual means of the&lt;br&gt;
four ocean variables sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, net&lt;br&gt;
primary production of phytoplankton, and surface partial CO2 pressure&lt;br&gt;
are analyzed for abrupt changes. The analysis is based on the R package&lt;br&gt;
EnvCpt, which is designed to detect structural changes in climate and&lt;br&gt;
environment time series. Using post-processing R scripts, the EnvCpt&lt;br&gt;
output is filtered and presented in three different spatial plots. Several regions&lt;br&gt;
showing abrupt changes either caused by long-term shifts throughout&lt;br&gt;
the historical period or caused by changes due to the RCP8.5 period&lt;br&gt;
could be identified. The results are compared to the ones obtained by&lt;br&gt;
Drijfhout et al. (2015), who also analyzed climate time series for abrupt&lt;br&gt;
changes. With toy data, some limitations of EnvCpt are recognized and&lt;br&gt;
some recommendations for the use of EnvCpt are given.&lt;/p&gt;</subfield>
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