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Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series

Severin Kaderli; Thomas L. Frölicher; Friedrich Burger


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    "description": "<p>The aim of this thesis is to analyze climate time series for abrupt changes.<br>\nThe time series are based on data provided by simulations of the Earth<br>\nSystem Model GFDL ESM2M and consist of a historical period and<br>\na Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) period, where high<br>\nemissions of greenhouse gases are assumed. The annual means of the<br>\nfour ocean variables sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, net<br>\nprimary production of phytoplankton, and surface partial CO2 pressure<br>\nare analyzed for abrupt changes. The analysis is based on the R package<br>\nEnvCpt, which is designed to detect structural changes in climate and<br>\nenvironment time series. Using post-processing R scripts, the EnvCpt<br>\noutput is filtered and presented in three different spatial plots. Several regions<br>\nshowing abrupt changes either caused by long-term shifts throughout<br>\nthe historical period or caused by changes due to the RCP8.5 period<br>\ncould be identified. The results are compared to the ones obtained by<br>\nDrijfhout et al. (2015), who also analyzed climate time series for abrupt<br>\nchanges. With toy data, some limitations of EnvCpt are recognized and<br>\nsome recommendations for the use of EnvCpt are given.</p>", 
    "language": "eng", 
    "title": "Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series", 
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    "publication_date": "2020-06-30", 
    "creators": [
      {
        "affiliation": "Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland", 
        "name": "Severin Kaderli"
      }, 
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        "affiliation": "Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland", 
        "name": "Thomas L. Fr\u00f6licher"
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      {
        "affiliation": "Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland", 
        "name": "Friedrich Burger"
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