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Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series

Severin Kaderli; Thomas L. Frölicher; Friedrich Burger


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  <identifier identifierType="DOI">10.5281/zenodo.4564623</identifier>
  <creators>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Severin Kaderli</creatorName>
      <affiliation>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Thomas L. Frölicher</creatorName>
      <affiliation>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Friedrich Burger</creatorName>
      <affiliation>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</affiliation>
    </creator>
  </creators>
  <titles>
    <title>Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series</title>
  </titles>
  <publisher>Zenodo</publisher>
  <publicationYear>2020</publicationYear>
  <dates>
    <date dateType="Issued">2020-06-30</date>
  </dates>
  <language>en</language>
  <resourceType resourceTypeGeneral="Other"/>
  <alternateIdentifiers>
    <alternateIdentifier alternateIdentifierType="url">https://zenodo.org/record/4564623</alternateIdentifier>
  </alternateIdentifiers>
  <relatedIdentifiers>
    <relatedIdentifier relatedIdentifierType="DOI" relationType="IsVersionOf">10.5281/zenodo.4564622</relatedIdentifier>
  </relatedIdentifiers>
  <rightsList>
    <rights rightsURI="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International</rights>
    <rights rightsURI="info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess">Open Access</rights>
  </rightsList>
  <descriptions>
    <description descriptionType="Abstract">&lt;p&gt;The aim of this thesis is to analyze climate time series for abrupt changes.&lt;br&gt;
The time series are based on data provided by simulations of the Earth&lt;br&gt;
System Model GFDL ESM2M and consist of a historical period and&lt;br&gt;
a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) period, where high&lt;br&gt;
emissions of greenhouse gases are assumed. The annual means of the&lt;br&gt;
four ocean variables sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, net&lt;br&gt;
primary production of phytoplankton, and surface partial CO2 pressure&lt;br&gt;
are analyzed for abrupt changes. The analysis is based on the R package&lt;br&gt;
EnvCpt, which is designed to detect structural changes in climate and&lt;br&gt;
environment time series. Using post-processing R scripts, the EnvCpt&lt;br&gt;
output is filtered and presented in three different spatial plots. Several regions&lt;br&gt;
showing abrupt changes either caused by long-term shifts throughout&lt;br&gt;
the historical period or caused by changes due to the RCP8.5 period&lt;br&gt;
could be identified. The results are compared to the ones obtained by&lt;br&gt;
Drijfhout et al. (2015), who also analyzed climate time series for abrupt&lt;br&gt;
changes. With toy data, some limitations of EnvCpt are recognized and&lt;br&gt;
some recommendations for the use of EnvCpt are given.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
  </descriptions>
</resource>
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