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Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series

Severin Kaderli; Thomas L. Frölicher; Friedrich Burger

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  "publisher": "Zenodo", 
  "DOI": "10.5281/zenodo.4564623", 
  "language": "eng", 
  "title": "Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series", 
  "issued": {
    "date-parts": [
  "abstract": "<p>The aim of this thesis is to analyze climate time series for abrupt changes.<br>\nThe time series are based on data provided by simulations of the Earth<br>\nSystem Model GFDL ESM2M and consist of a historical period and<br>\na Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) period, where high<br>\nemissions of greenhouse gases are assumed. The annual means of the<br>\nfour ocean variables sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, net<br>\nprimary production of phytoplankton, and surface partial CO2 pressure<br>\nare analyzed for abrupt changes. The analysis is based on the R package<br>\nEnvCpt, which is designed to detect structural changes in climate and<br>\nenvironment time series. Using post-processing R scripts, the EnvCpt<br>\noutput is filtered and presented in three different spatial plots. Several regions<br>\nshowing abrupt changes either caused by long-term shifts throughout<br>\nthe historical period or caused by changes due to the RCP8.5 period<br>\ncould be identified. The results are compared to the ones obtained by<br>\nDrijfhout et al. (2015), who also analyzed climate time series for abrupt<br>\nchanges. With toy data, some limitations of EnvCpt are recognized and<br>\nsome recommendations for the use of EnvCpt are given.</p>", 
  "author": [
      "family": "Severin Kaderli"
      "family": "Thomas L. Fr\u00f6licher"
      "family": "Friedrich Burger"
  "type": "article", 
  "id": "4564623"
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