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Differences in COVID-19 testing and tracing across countries, as well as changes in testing within each country over time, make it difficult to estimate the true (population) infection rate based on the confirmed number of cases obtained through RNA viral testing. We applied a backcasting approach to estimate a distribution for the true (population) cumulative number of infections (infected and recovered) for 15 developed countries. Our sample comprised countries with similar levels of medical care and with populations that have similar age distributions. Monte Carlo methods were used to robustly sample parameter uncertainty. We found a strong and statistically significant negative relationship between the proportion of the population who test positive and the implied true detection rate. Despite an overall improvement in detection rates as the pandemic has progressed, our estimates showed that, as at 31 August 2020, the true number of people to have been infected across our sample of 15 countries was 6.2 (95% CI: 4.3–10.9) times greater than the reported number of cases. In individual countries, the true number of cases exceeded the reported figure by factors that range from 2.6 (95% CI: 1.8–4.5) for South Korea to 17.5 (95% CI: 12.2–30.7) for Italy.
", "publication_date": "2020-11-18", "publisher": "Zenodo", "related_identifiers": [ { "identifier": "10.1098/rsos.200909", "relation_type": { "id": "isdocumentedby", "title": { "de": "Wird dokumentiert von", "en": "Is documented by" } }, "resource_type": { "id": "publication-article", "title": { "de": "Zeitschriftenartikel", "en": "Journal article" } }, "scheme": "doi" } ], "resource_type": { "id": "dataset", "title": { "de": "Datensatz", "en": "Dataset" } }, "rights": [ { "description": { "en": "The Creative Commons Attribution license allows re-distribution and re-use of a licensed work on the condition that the creator is appropriately credited." }, "icon": "cc-by-icon", "id": "cc-by-4.0", "props": { "scheme": "spdx", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode" }, "title": { "en": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International" } } ], "subjects": [ { "subject": "COVID-19" }, { "subject": "SARS-CoV-2" }, { "subject": "pandemic" }, { "subject": "public health" }, { "subject": "infection rate" }, { "subject": "parameter uncertainty" } ], "title": "Robust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: a backcasting approach" }, "parent": { "access": { "owned_by": { "user": 101640 } }, "communities": { "default": "10f33f78-3f29-41b6-bb10-f757a8f03cb8", "entries": [ { "access": { "member_policy": "open", "members_visibility": "public", "record_policy": "open", "review_policy": "open", "visibility": "public" }, "children": { "allow": false }, "created": "2020-03-16T11:40:44.487619+00:00", "custom_fields": {}, "deletion_status": { "is_deleted": false, "status": "P" }, "id": "10f33f78-3f29-41b6-bb10-f757a8f03cb8", "links": {}, "metadata": { "curation_policy": "The Coronavirus Disease Research Community - COVID-19 is curated by a selected team of experts nominated by OpenAIRE* (see list below). Each time a Zenodo user wants to add a record into the community, an email is sent to the curators that will decide whether to include the record or not.
\r\n\r\nOnly records that may be relevant to the Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) or the SARS-CoV-2 should be included in this community. The Community curators are not able to edit records, therefore they may ask the corresponding authors to modify the record metadata when necessary, to provide the readers/users with more detailed information according to the FAIR principle of Open Science.
\r\n\r\nIf after its acceptance, a record is subsequently found not to be compliant, we reserve the right to remove it from the community.
\r\n\r\nThe curation team is reachable through the following email address for further clarification or information: covid19@openaire.eu.
\r\n\r\nCurator List:
\r\n\r\n* OpenAIRE: open access and open science training and support since 2009. OpenAIRE is the largest aggregator of European Commission funded research outputs and beyond, also delivering on-demand services for research communities.
\r\n", "page": "This community collects research outputs that may be relevant to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) or the SARS-CoV-2. Scientists are encouraged to upload their outcome in this collection to facilitate sharing and discovery of information. Although Open Access articles and datasets are recommended, also closed and restricted access material are accepted. All types of research outputs can be included in this Community (Publication, Poster, Presentation, Dataset, Image, Video/Audio, Software, Lesson, Other).
\r\n\r\nThe recent Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak is requiring unseen efforts of collaboration of the scientific community that need to act fast and to share results in an unpredictable manner. In order to facilitate the Scientist efforts, this community was created to collect all research results that could be relevant for the scientific community working on the Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) and SARS-CoV-2.
\r\n\r\nAlthough Open Access articles and datasets are recommended, also closed and restricted access material are accepted. All types of research outputs can be included in this Community (Publication, Poster, Presentation, Dataset, Image, Video/Audio, Software, Lesson, Other).
\r\n\r\nWhen depositing a resource that is linked to other resources (not limited to the records deposited in Zenodo but also in other repositories), please make sure that your record is linked to all the other related elements already available, in order to adhere to the FAIR principles of Open Science to maximise the reusability of research results.
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