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Development, evaluation, and validation of machine learning models for COVID-19 detection based on routine blood tests

Cabitza, Federico; Campagner, Andrea; Ferrari, Davide; Di Resta, Chiara; Ceriotti, Daniele; Sabetta, Eleonora; Colombini, Alessandra; De Vecchi, Elena; Banfi, Giuseppe; Locatelli, Massimo; Carobene, Anna


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{
  "DOI": "10.1515/cclm-2020-1294", 
  "author": [
    {
      "family": "Cabitza, Federico"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Campagner, Andrea"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Ferrari, Davide"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Di Resta, Chiara"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Ceriotti, Daniele"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Sabetta, Eleonora"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Colombini, Alessandra"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "De Vecchi, Elena"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Banfi, Giuseppe"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Locatelli, Massimo"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Carobene, Anna"
    }
  ], 
  "issued": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2020, 
        10, 
        12
      ]
    ]
  }, 
  "abstract": "<p>The .xlsx dataset includes all patients used for training, internal-external and external validation: these can be distinguished by looking at the ID (first column) in the dataset: those in format Axxxx-&lt;Date&gt; are the data used for the training, those in the format 20xx are the data used for the internal-external validation, while the remaining data were used for external validation.</p>\n\n<p>As regards the features: for the Target feature the value 1 stands for &quot;Positive to COVID-19&quot; while the value 0 stands for &quot;Negative to COVID-19&quot;; while for the Sex feature the value 1 stands for &quot;Male&quot; while the value 0 stands for &quot;Female&quot;.</p>\n\n<p>The full article is available at: https://www.degruyter.com/view/journals/cclm/ahead-of-print/article-10.1515-cclm-2020-1294/article-10.1515-cclm-2020-1294.xml.</p>\n\n<p>A pre-print version of the article is also available on MedrXiv:&nbsp;https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.02.20205070v1</p>\n\n<p><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>Background</strong> The rRT-PCR test, the current gold standard for the detection of coronavirus disease (COVID-19),&nbsp;presents with known shortcomings, such as long turnaround time, potential shortage of reagents, false-negative&nbsp;rates around 15&ndash;20%, and expensive equipment. The hematochemical values of routine blood exams could&nbsp;represent a faster and less expensive alternative.&nbsp;</p>\n\n<p><strong>Methods</strong> Three different training data set of hematochemical values from 1,624 patients (52% COVID-19&nbsp;positive), admitted at San Raphael Hospital (OSR) from February to May 2020, were used for developing machine&nbsp;learning (ML) models: the complete OSR dataset (72 features: complete blood count (CBC), biochemical,&nbsp;coagulation, hemogasanalysis and CO-Oxymetry values, age, sex and specific symptoms at triage) and two sub&nbsp;datasets (COVID-specific and CBC dataset, 32 and 21 features respectively). 58 cases (50% COVID-19 positive)&nbsp;from another hospital, and 54 negative patients collected in 2018 at OSR, were used for internal-external and external validation.</p>\n\n<p><strong>Results</strong> We developed five ML models: for the complete OSR dataset, the area under the receiver operating&nbsp;characteristic curve (AUC) for the algorithms ranged from 0.83 to 0.90; for the COVID-specific dataset from 0.83 15 to 0.87; and for the CBC dataset from 0.74 to 0.86. The validations also achieved good results: respectively, AUC 16 from 0.75 to 0.78; and specificity from 0.92 to 0.96.&nbsp;</p>\n\n<p><strong>Conclusions</strong> ML can be applied to blood tests as both an adjunct and alternative method to rRT-PCR for the fast&nbsp;and cost-effective identification of COVID-19-positive patients. This is especially useful in developing countries,&nbsp;or in countries facing an increase in contagions.</p>", 
  "title": "Development, evaluation, and validation of machine learning models for COVID-19 detection based on routine blood tests", 
  "type": "dataset", 
  "id": "4081318"
}
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