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Outlines of a probabilistic evaluation of possible SARS-CoV-2 origins

Demaneuf, Gilles; De Maistre, Rodolphe


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{
  "inLanguage": {
    "alternateName": "eng", 
    "@type": "Language", 
    "name": "English"
  }, 
  "description": "<p>We explore the relative probabilities of a lab-related accident against a non-lab-related zoonotic event being at the root of the current COVID-19 pandemic. We show that, based on present knowledge, the relative probability of a lab-related accident against a non-lab related zoonotic event is not negligible across a wide range of defensible input probabilities.</p>\n\n<p>For instance, under a reference set of input probabilities, the relative probabilities are at least 55% for a lab-related event against 45% at most for a non-lab-related zoonotic event. Even under a particularly conservative set of assumptions the relative probability of the lab-related accident is still 6% (to 94% for the non-lab related zoonotic event).</p>\n\n<p>Through a review of the Chinese specialised literature, we further show that our underlying estimate for the probability of lab-acquired infection is consistent with risk assessments from Chinese authorities and specialists. As part of this study, we list 112 individual&nbsp;BSL-3 labs in China, across 62 lab complexes.</p>\n\n<p>We then review a list of common probabilistic misunderstandings that are often associated with discussions about COVID-19 origins and conclude by discussing how such a probabilistic treatment can also offer a way to properly guide an investigation into the causes of the pandemic while being able to embrace different estimates of the underlying probabilities.</p>\n\n<p><br>\n<strong>Note: This paper is produced by the authors strictly in their personal capacity, and&nbsp;should not be constructed as representing in any way the opinion of any of the institutions the authors are employed or associated to.&nbsp;</strong></p>", 
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode", 
  "creator": [
    {
      "@id": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7277-9533", 
      "@type": "Person", 
      "name": "Demaneuf, Gilles"
    }, 
    {
      "@id": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3433-2420", 
      "@type": "Person", 
      "name": "De Maistre, Rodolphe"
    }
  ], 
  "headline": "Outlines of a probabilistic evaluation of possible SARS-CoV-2 origins", 
  "image": "https://zenodo.org/static/img/logos/zenodo-gradient-round.svg", 
  "datePublished": "2020-09-26", 
  "url": "https://zenodo.org/record/4067919", 
  "version": "1.0.1", 
  "keywords": [
    "risk assessment", 
    "laboratory escape", 
    "laboratory acquired infection (LAI)", 
    "bayesian probabilities", 
    "biosafety", 
    "COVID-19", 
    "SARS-CoV-2", 
    "Coronavirus", 
    "BSL-3", 
    "Wuhan"
  ], 
  "@context": "https://schema.org/", 
  "identifier": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4067919", 
  "@id": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4067919", 
  "@type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
  "name": "Outlines of a probabilistic evaluation of possible SARS-CoV-2 origins"
}
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