Journal article Open Access

# Outlines of a probabilistic evaluation of possible SARS-CoV-2 origins

Demaneuf, Gilles; De Maistre, Rodolphe

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"alternateName": "eng",
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"name": "English"
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"description": "<p>We explore the relative probabilities of a lab-related accident against a non-lab-related zoonotic event being at the root of the current COVID-19 pandemic. We show that, based on present knowledge, the relative probability of a lab-related accident against a non-lab related zoonotic event is not negligible across a wide range of defensible input probabilities.</p>\n\n<p>For instance, under a reference set of input probabilities, the relative probabilities are at least 55% for a lab-related event against 45% at most for a non-lab-related zoonotic event. Even under a particularly conservative set of assumptions the relative probability of the lab-related accident is still 6% (to 94% for the non-lab related zoonotic event).</p>\n\n<p>Through a review of the Chinese specialised literature, we further show that our underlying estimate for the probability of lab-acquired infection is consistent with risk assessments from Chinese authorities and specialists. As part of this study, we list 112 individual&nbsp;BSL-3 labs in China, across 62 lab complexes.</p>\n\n<p>We then review a list of common probabilistic misunderstandings that are often associated with discussions about COVID-19 origins and conclude by discussing how such a probabilistic treatment can also offer a way to properly guide an investigation into the causes of the pandemic while being able to embrace different estimates of the underlying probabilities.</p>\n\n<p><br>\n<strong>Note: This paper is produced by the authors strictly in their personal capacity, and&nbsp;should not be constructed as representing in any way the opinion of any of the institutions the authors are employed or associated to.&nbsp;</strong></p>",
"creator": [
{
"@id": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7277-9533",
"@type": "Person",
"name": "Demaneuf, Gilles"
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{
"@id": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3433-2420",
"@type": "Person",
"name": "De Maistre, Rodolphe"
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"headline": "Outlines of a probabilistic evaluation of possible SARS-CoV-2 origins",
"datePublished": "2020-09-26",
"url": "https://zenodo.org/record/4067919",
"version": "1.0.1",
"keywords": [
"risk assessment",
"laboratory escape",
"laboratory acquired infection (LAI)",
"bayesian probabilities",
"biosafety",
"COVID-19",
"SARS-CoV-2",
"Coronavirus",
"BSL-3",
"Wuhan"
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"identifier": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4067919",
"@id": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4067919",
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"name": "Outlines of a probabilistic evaluation of possible SARS-CoV-2 origins"
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