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Suitability Map of COVID-19 Virus Spread

Gianpaolo Coro


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{
  "description": "<p>This image&nbsp;reports a Maximum Entropy model that&nbsp;estimates <em>suitable </em>locations for COVID-19 spread, i.e. places that could favour the spread of the virus just in terms of environmental parameters.</p>\n\n<p>The model was trained just on locations in <em>Italy </em>that have reported a rate of new infections higher than the geometric mean of all Italian infection rates. The following environmental parameters were used, which are correlated to those used by other studies:</p>\n\n<ul>\n\t<li>Average Annual Surface Air Temperature in 2018 (NASA)</li>\n\t<li>Average Annual Precipitation in 2018 (NASA)</li>\n\t<li>CO2 emission (natural+artificial) averaged between January 1979 and&nbsp;December 2013 (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service)</li>\n\t<li>Elevation (NOAA ETOPO2)</li>\n\t<li>Population per 0.5&deg; cell (NASA Gridded Population of the World)</li>\n</ul>\n\n<p>A higher resolution map, the model file (in ASC format) and all parameters used are also attached.</p>\n\n<p>The model indicates highest correlation with&nbsp;<em>infection rate</em> for CO2 around 0.03 gCm^&minus;2day^&minus;1, for Temperature around 11.8 &deg;C, and for Precipitation around 0.3 kg m^-2&nbsp; s^-1, whereas Elevation and Population density are&nbsp;poorly correlated with <em>infection rate</em>.</p>\n\n<p><strong>One interesting result is that the model indicates, among others, the Hubei region in China as a high-probability location</strong>, <strong>and Iran (around Teheran) as a suited location for virus&#39; spread, but the model was not trained on these regions, i.e. it did not know about the actual spread in these regions.</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>Evaluation: </strong></p>\n\n<p>A <em>risk score</em> was calculated for&nbsp;each country/region reported by the JHU&nbsp;monitoring system (<a href=\"https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6\">https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6</a>). This score is calculated as&nbsp;the summed normalised probability&nbsp;in the populated locations divided by their total surface. This score represents how much the zone would potentially foster&nbsp;the virus&#39; spread.</p>\n\n<p>We assessed the reliability of this score, by selecting the country/regions that reported the <em>highest rates of infection</em>. These zones were selected&nbsp;as those with a rate higher than the upper confidence of a log-normal distribution of the rates.</p>\n\n<p>The agreement between the two maps (<a href=\"https://zenodo.org/api/files/23b09ea2-e5eb-415d-9f6c-fd3b5abfe6c9/covid_high_rate_vs_high_risk_24_03_2020.png\">covid_high_rate_vs_high_risk.png</a>, where violet dots indicate <em>high infection rates </em>and countries&#39; colours indicate estimated <em>high risk score</em>) is the following:</p>\n\n<p><strong>Accuracy </strong>(overall percentage of correctly predicted high-rate zones):&nbsp;<strong>77.25%</strong><br>\n<strong>Kappa </strong>(agreement between the two maps): <strong>0.46</strong> (Good, according to Fleiss&#39; intepretation of the score)&nbsp;</p>\n\n<p><strong>This assessment demonstrates that our map can be used to estimate the risk of a certain country to have a high rate of infection, and indicates that the influence of environmental parameters on virus&#39;s spread should be further investigated.</strong></p>\n\n<p>&nbsp;</p>", 
  "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode", 
  "creator": [
    {
      "affiliation": "ISTI-CNR", 
      "@type": "Person", 
      "name": "Gianpaolo Coro"
    }
  ], 
  "url": "https://zenodo.org/record/3725831", 
  "datePublished": "2020-03-20", 
  "version": "5", 
  "keywords": [
    "COVID-19", 
    "Coronavirus", 
    "Maximum Entropy", 
    "Temperature", 
    "Precipitation", 
    "Carbon Dioxide", 
    "CO2", 
    "Corona virus"
  ], 
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  "identifier": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3725831", 
  "@id": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3725831", 
  "@type": "Dataset", 
  "name": "Suitability Map of COVID-19 Virus Spread"
}
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