3719179
doi
10.5281/zenodo.3719179
oai:zenodo.org:3719179
user-covid-19
Suitability Map of COVID-19 Virus Spread
Gianpaolo Coro
ISTI-CNR
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
COVID-19
Coronavirus
Maximum Entropy
Temperature
Precipitation
Carbon Dioxide
CO2
Corona virus
<p>This image reports a Maximum Entropy model that estimates <em>suitable </em>locations for COVID-19 spread, i.e. places that could favour the spread of the virus just in terms of environmental parameters.</p>
<p>The model was trained just on locations in <em>Italy </em>that have reported a rate of new infections higher than the geometric mean of all Italian infection rates. The following environmental parameters were used, which are correlated to those used by other studies:</p>
<ul>
<li>Average Annual Surface Air Temperature in 2018 (NASA)</li>
<li>Average Annual Precipitation in 2018 (NASA)</li>
<li>CO2 emission (natural+artificial) averaged between January 1979 and December 2013 (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service)</li>
<li>Elevation (NOAA ETOPO2)</li>
</ul>
<p>A higher resolution map is also attached.</p>
<p>The model indicates highest correlation to infection rate for CO2 around 0.03 gCm^−2day^−1, for Temperature around 11.8 °C, and for Precipitation around 0.3 kg m^-2 s^-1, whereas Elevation is poorly correlated.</p>
<p><strong>One interesting result is that the model indicates, among others, the Hubei region in China as a high-probability location</strong>, <strong>and Iran (around Teheran) as a suited location for virus' spread, but the model was not trained on these regions, i.e. it did not know about the actual spread in these regions.</strong></p>
Zenodo
2020-03-20
info:eu-repo/semantics/other
3719140
user-covid-19
2
1594766066.292525
5659192
md5:dea4e66a1c66d0dfc3b0872adfaa020f
https://zenodo.org/records/3719179/files/1_covid_suitability_preview.png
public
10.5281/zenodo.3719140
isVersionOf
doi