There is a newer version of this record available.

Figure Open Access

Suitability Map of COVID-19 Virus Spread

Gianpaolo Coro

This image reports a Maximum Entropy model that estimates suitable locations for COVID-19 spread, i.e. places that could favour the spread of the virus just in terms of environmental parameters.

The model was trained just on locations in Italy that have reported a rate of new infections higher than the geometric mean of all Italian infection rates. The following environmental parameters were used, which are correlated to those used by other studies:

  • Average Annual Surface Air Temperature in 2018 (NASA)
  • Average Annual Precipitation in 2018 (NASA)
  • CO2 emission (natural+artificial) averaged between January 1979 and December 2013 (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service)
  • Elevation (NOAA ETOPO2)

A higher resolution map is also attached.

The model indicates highest correlation to infection rate for CO2 around 0.03 gCm^−2day^−1, for Temperature around 11.8 °C, and for Precipitation around 0.3 kg m^-2  s^-1, whereas Elevation is poorly correlated.

One interesting result is that the model indicates, among others, the Hubei region in China as a high-probability location, and Iran (around Teheran) as a suited location for virus' spread, but the model was not trained on these regions, i.e. it did not know about the actual spread in these regions.

Files (5.7 MB)
Name Size
5.7 MB Download
All versions This version
Views 1,08828
Downloads 3302
Data volume 4.9 GB11.3 MB
Unique views 86424
Unique downloads 1912


Cite as