Project deliverable Open Access

Model-observation and reanalyses comparison at key locations for heat transport to the Arctic (D2.1)

Moat, Ben; Herbaut, Christophe; Larsen, Karin Margretha; Hansen, Bogi; Sinha, Bablu; Sanchez-Franks, Alejandra; Houpert, Loic; Liu, Yang; Hazeleger, Wilco; Attema, Jisk; Yeager, Stephen; Small, Justin; Valdimarsson, Hedinn; Berx, Barbara; Cunningham, Stuart; Houpert, Loic; Hallam, Samantha; Woodgate, Rebecca; Lee, Craig; Kwon, Young Oh; Flemming, Laura; Mercier, Herle; Jochumsen, Kerstin; Mecking, Jennifer; Holliday, Penny Holliday; Josey, Simon


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    <dct:title>Model-observation and reanalyses comparison at key locations for heat transport to the Arctic (D2.1)</dct:title>
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    <dct:description>&lt;p&gt;Assessment of key lower latitude influences on the Arctic and their simulation&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Summary&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Blue-Action Work Package 2 (WP2) focuses on lower latitude drivers of Arctic change, with a focus on&lt;br&gt; the influence of the Atlantic Ocean and atmosphere on the Arctic. In particular, warm water travels from&lt;br&gt; the Atlantic, across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, through the Norwegian Sea towards the Arctic. A&lt;br&gt; large proportion of the heat transported northwards by the ocean is released to the atmosphere and&lt;br&gt; carried eastward towards Europe by the prevailing westerly winds. This is an important contribution to&lt;br&gt; northwestern Europe&amp;#39;s mild climate. The remaining heat travels north into the Arctic. Variations in the&lt;br&gt; amount of heat transported into the Arctic will influence the long term climate of the Northern&lt;br&gt; Hemisphere. Here we assess how well the state of the art coupled climate models estimate this&lt;br&gt; northwards transport of heat in the ocean, and how the atmospheric heat transport varies with changes&lt;br&gt; in the ocean heat transport. We seek to improve the ocean monitoring systems that are in place by&lt;br&gt; introducing measurements from ocean gliders, Argo floats and satellites.&lt;br&gt; These state of the art computer simulations are evaluated by comparison with key trans-Atlantic&lt;br&gt; observations. In addition to the coupled models &amp;lsquo;ocean-only&amp;rsquo; evaluations are made. In general the&lt;br&gt; coupled model simulations have too much heat going into the Arctic region and the transports have too&lt;br&gt; much variability. The models generally reproduce the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean&lt;br&gt; Circulation (AMOC) well. All models in this study have a too strong southwards transport of freshwater&lt;br&gt; at 26&amp;deg;N in the North Atlantic, but the divergence between 26&amp;deg;N and Bering Straits is generally&lt;br&gt; reproduced really well in all the models.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Altimetry from satellites have been used to reconstruct the ocean circulation 26&amp;deg;N in the Atlantic, over&lt;br&gt; the Greenland Scotland Ridge and alongside ship based observations along the GO-SHIP OVIDE Section.&lt;br&gt; Although it is still a challenge to estimate the ocean circulation at 26&amp;deg;N without using the RAPID 26&amp;deg;N&lt;br&gt; array, satellites can be used to reconstruct the longer term ocean signal. The OSNAP project measures&lt;br&gt; the oceanic transport of heat across a section which stretches from Canada to the UK, via Greenland.&lt;br&gt; The project has used ocean gliders to great success to measure the transport on the eastern side of the&lt;br&gt; array. Every 10 days up to 4000 Argo floats measure temperature and salinity in the top 2000m of the&lt;br&gt; ocean, away from ocean boundaries, and report back the measurements via satellite. These data are&lt;br&gt; employed at 26&amp;deg;N in the Atlantic to enable the calculation of the heat and freshwater transports.&lt;br&gt; As explained above, both ocean and atmosphere carry vast amounts of heat poleward in the Atlantic. In&lt;br&gt; the long term average the Atlantic ocean releases large amounts of heat to the atmosphere between&lt;br&gt; the subtropical and subpolar regions, heat which is then carried by the atmosphere to western Europe&lt;br&gt; and the Arctic. On shorter timescales, interannual to decadal, the amounts of heat carried by ocean and&lt;br&gt; atmosphere vary considerably. An important question is whether the total amount of heat transported,&lt;br&gt; atmosphere plus ocean, remains roughly constant, whether significant amounts of heat are gained or&lt;br&gt; lost from space and how the relative amount transported by the atmosphere and ocean change with&lt;br&gt; time. This is an important distinction because the same amount of anomalous heat transport will have&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;very different effects depending on whether it is transported by ocean or the atmosphere. For example&lt;br&gt; the effects on Arctic sea ice will depend very much on whether the surface of the ice experiences&lt;br&gt; anomalous warming by the atmosphere versus the base of the ice experiencing anomalous warming&lt;br&gt; from the ocean. In Blue-Action we investigated the relationship between atmospheric and oceanic heat&lt;br&gt; transports at key locations corresponding to the positions of observational arrays (RAPID at 26&amp;deg;N,&lt;br&gt; OSNAP at ~55N, and the Denmark Strait, Iceland-Scotland Ridge and Davis Strait at ~67N) in a number of&lt;br&gt; cutting edge high resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We split the analysis into two&lt;br&gt; different timescales, interannual to decadal (1-10 years) and multidecadal (greater than 10 years). In the&lt;br&gt; 1-10 year case, the relationship between ocean and atmosphere transports is complex, but a robust&lt;br&gt; result is that although there is little local correlation between oceanic and atmospheric heat transports,&lt;br&gt; Correlations do occur at different latitudes. Thus increased oceanic heat transport at 26&amp;deg;N is&lt;br&gt; accompanied by reduced heat transport at ~50N and a longitudinal shift in the location of atmospheric&lt;br&gt; flow of heat into the Arctic. Conversely, on longer timescales, there appears to be a much stronger local&lt;br&gt; compensation between oceanic and atmospheric heat transport i.e. Bjerknes compensation.&lt;/p&gt;</dct:description>
    <dct:description>The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 727852.</dct:description>
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    </frapo:isAwardedBy>
  </foaf:Project>
</rdf:RDF>
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