Journal article Open Access

ANÁLISE HARMÔNICA DAS TEMPERATURAS MÍNIMAS E MÁXIMAS MÉDIAS MENSAIS PARA O ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL

João; Milena Machado; Diniz; Gilberto; Baptista da Silva


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    <dct:title>ANÁLISE HARMÔNICA DAS TEMPERATURAS MÍNIMAS E MÁXIMAS MÉDIAS MENSAIS PARA O ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL</dct:title>
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    <dcat:keyword>Regressão Periódica , Tendência Linear, Iraí, Santana do Livramento, Pelotas, Previsão</dcat:keyword>
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    <dct:description>&lt;p&gt;Neste trabalho constitu&amp;iacute;ram-se modelos matem&amp;aacute;ticos referentes &amp;agrave;s temperaturas m&amp;iacute;nimas e m&amp;aacute;ximas m&amp;eacute;dias mensais, para tr&amp;ecirc;s localidades do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Foi aplicada a t&amp;eacute;cnica da an&amp;aacute;lise harm&amp;ocirc;nica para a identifica&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o dos harm&amp;ocirc;nicos existentes e sua import&amp;acirc;ncia na composi&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o dos modelos. Utilizou-se dados de 85 anos, de 1918 a 2002, para a an&amp;aacute;lise harm&amp;ocirc;nica e composi&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o dos modelos, e 5 anos, de 2003 a 2007, para verificar a capacidade dos modelos na previs&amp;atilde;o de novos conjuntos de valores. Os resultados das an&amp;aacute;lises realizadas indicaram um bom desempenho dos modelos para representar a varia&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o entre os dados mensais de temperaturas m&amp;iacute;nimas e m&amp;aacute;ximas e, tamb&amp;eacute;m, como &amp;nbsp;previsores confi&amp;aacute;veis do comportamento de novos conjuntos destas vari&amp;aacute;veis.&lt;/p&gt;</dct:description>
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