Dataset Open Access

Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise

Diana Stralberg; Steven M. Matsuoka; Andreas Hamann; Erin M. Bayne; Péter Sólymos; Fiona K. A. Schmiegelow; Steven G. Cumming; Samantha J. Song


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    <subfield code="a">&lt;p&gt;Current and projected future potential boreal bird densities (4-km resolution)&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Citation for journal article associated with this dataset:&lt;br&gt;
--------------------&lt;br&gt;
Stralberg, D., S. M. Matsuoka, A. Hamann, E. M. Bayne, P. S&amp;oacute;lymos, F. K. A. Schmiegelow, X. Wang, S. G. Cumming, and S. J. Song. 2015. Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise. Ecological Applications 25:52-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-2289.1&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Coordinate System&lt;br&gt;
------------------&lt;br&gt;
Projection: Lambert Conformal Conic&lt;br&gt;
False Easting: 0.00000000&lt;br&gt;
False Northing: 0.00000000&lt;br&gt;
Central Meridian: -95.00000000&lt;br&gt;
Standard Parallel 1: 49.00000000&lt;br&gt;
Standard Parallel 2: 77.00000000&lt;br&gt;
Latitude Of Origin: 0.00000000&lt;br&gt;
Linear Unit: &amp;nbsp;Meter&lt;br&gt;
Datum: D WGS 1984&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Summary&lt;br&gt;
-------&lt;br&gt;
The boreal forest biome provides a resource-rich environment for breeding birds, supporting high species diversity and bird numbers. These birds are likely to shift their distributions northward in response to rapid climate change over the next century. We used a comprehensive dataset of avian point-count surveys from across boreal Canada and Alaska, combined with interpolated climate data, to develop bioclimatic niche models of current avian distribution and density for 80 boreal-breeding songbird species. We then used a downscaling of projected future climates to assess the potential for these species to change their distribution and abundance in response to climate change. Note that projections represent potential densities based on climatic conditions, land use and topography. They do not account for physiographic barriers such as the northern extent of the Rocky Mountains that may prevent colonization of otherwise suitable habitat. Therefore current species&amp;rsquo; distributions may be over-estimated in certain regions, particularly in Alaska.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Boosted regression tree models of species distribution were averaged across two sets of covariates (climate-only and &amp;nbsp;climate + land use + topography), 11 bootstrap samples, and four global climate models. Mean projections and uncertainty estimates (coefficient of variation) are available for the current period (based on climate data from 1961-1990) and three future time periods (2011&amp;ndash;2040, 2041&amp;shy;&amp;ndash;2070, 2071&amp;ndash;2100). Climate data layers available at tinyurl.com/ClimateNA.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Contact&lt;br&gt;
-------&lt;br&gt;
Diana Stralberg, University of Alberta (stralber@ualberta.ca)&lt;br&gt;
Boreal Avian Modelling Project (borealbirds.ca)&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Project sponsors&lt;br&gt;
----------------&lt;br&gt;
Boreal Avian Modelling (BAM) Project&lt;br&gt;
Alberta Biodiversity Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Avian data providers&lt;br&gt;
--------------&lt;br&gt;
http://www.borealbirds.ca/index.php/data_partners&lt;br&gt;
USGS Breeding Bird Survey&lt;br&gt;
Breeding Bird Atlases of Canada&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;BAM founding organisations and funders&lt;br&gt;
--------------------------------------&lt;br&gt;
Environment Canada&lt;br&gt;
University of Alberta&lt;br&gt;
Canadian BEACONs Project&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Financial supporters&lt;br&gt;
--------------------&lt;br&gt;
USFWS Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act&lt;br&gt;
Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarships&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute&lt;br&gt;
Alberta Innovates Technology Futures&lt;br&gt;
Alberta Pacific Forest Industries Inc.&lt;br&gt;
Climate Change and Emissions Management Corporation&lt;br&gt;
Joint Canada-Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring&lt;br&gt;
Killam Trusts&lt;br&gt;
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives&lt;br&gt;
National Fish and Wildlife Foundation&lt;br&gt;
Universit&amp;eacute; Laval&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Species code definitions&lt;br&gt;
------------------------&lt;br&gt;
Code&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Common name (Scientific name)&lt;br&gt;
ALFL&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Alder Flycatcher (Empidonax alnorum) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
AMCR&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos)&lt;br&gt;
AMGO&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;American Goldfinch (Spinus tristis)&lt;br&gt;
AMPI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;American Pipit (Anthus rubescens) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
AMRE&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla)&lt;br&gt;
AMRO&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;American Robin (Turdus migratorius) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
ATSP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;American Tree Sparrow (Spizella arborea) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
BAWW&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Black-and-white Warbler (Mniotilta varia)&lt;br&gt;
BBWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Bay-breasted Warbler (Setophaga castanea)&lt;br&gt;
BCCH&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Black-capped Chickadee (Poecile atricapillus) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
BHCO&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater)&lt;br&gt;
BHVI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Blue-headed Vireo (Vireo solitarius)&lt;br&gt;
BLBW&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Blackburnian Warbler (Setophaga fusca)&lt;br&gt;
BLJA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Blue Jay (Cyanocitta cristata)&lt;br&gt;
BLPW&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Blackpoll Warbler (Setophaga striata) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
BOCH&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Boreal Chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
BRBL&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Brewer&amp;rsquo;s Blackbird (Euphagus cyanocephalus)&lt;br&gt;
BRCR&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
BTNW&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Black-throated Green Warbler (Setophaga virens)&lt;br&gt;
CAWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis)&lt;br&gt;
CCSP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Clay-colored Sparrow (Spizella pallida)&lt;br&gt;
CEDW&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Cedar Waxwing (Bombycilla cedrorum)&lt;br&gt;
CHSP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Chipping Sparrow (Spizella passerina) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
CMWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Cape May Warbler (Setophaga tigrina)&lt;br&gt;
COGR&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula)&lt;br&gt;
CONW&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Connecticut Warbler (Oporornis agilis)&lt;br&gt;
CORA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Common Raven (Corvus corax) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
CORE&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Common Redpoll (Acanthis flammea) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
COYE&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas)&lt;br&gt;
CSWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica)&lt;br&gt;
DEJU&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
EAKI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus)&lt;br&gt;
EAPH&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Eastern Phoebe (Sayornis phoebe)&lt;br&gt;
EVGR&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Evening Grosbeak (Coccothraustes vespertinus)&lt;br&gt;
FOSP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Fox Sparrow (Passerella iliaca) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
GCKI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Golden-crowned Kinglet (Regulus satrapa) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
GCTH&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
GRAJ&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Gray Jay (Perisoreus canadensis) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
HETH&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Hermit Thrush (Catharus guttatus) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
HOLA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
LCSP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Le Conte&amp;#39;s Sparrow (Ammodramus leconteii)&lt;br&gt;
LEFL&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Least Flycatcher (Empidonax minimus)&lt;br&gt;
LISP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Lincoln&amp;#39;s Sparrow (Melospiza lincolnii) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
MAWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Magnolia Warbler (Setophaga magnolia)&lt;br&gt;
MOWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia)&lt;br&gt;
NAWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Nashville Warbler (Oreothlypis ruficapilla)&lt;br&gt;
NOWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Northern Waterthrush (Parkesia noveboracensis) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
OCWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Orange-crowned Warbler (Oreothlypis celata) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
OSFL&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
OVEN&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla)&lt;br&gt;
PAWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Palm Warbler (Setophaga palmarum)&lt;br&gt;
PHVI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Philadelphia Vireo (Vireo philadelphicus)&lt;br&gt;
PIGR&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Pine Grosbeak (Pinicola enucleator) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
PISI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Pine Siskin (Spinus pinus) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
PUFI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Purple Finch (Carpodacus purpureus)&lt;br&gt;
RBGR&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Rose-breasted Grosbeak (Pheucticus ludovicianus)&lt;br&gt;
RBNU&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Red-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta canadensis) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
RCKI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Ruby-crowned Kinglet (Regulus calendula) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
REVI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Red-eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus)&lt;br&gt;
RUBL&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
RWBL&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
SAVS&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
SOSP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia)&lt;br&gt;
SWSP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Swamp Sparrow (Melospiza georgiana)&lt;br&gt;
SWTH&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Swainson&amp;#39;s Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
TEWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Tennessee Warbler (Oreothlypis peregrina)&lt;br&gt;
TRES&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
VATH&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Varied Thrush (Ixoreus naevius) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
VESP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Vesper Sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus)&lt;br&gt;
WAVI&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Warbling Vireo (Vireo gilvus)&lt;br&gt;
WCSP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
WETA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Western Tanager (Piranga ludoviciana)&lt;br&gt;
WEWP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Western Wood-Pewee (Contopus sordidulus) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
WIWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Wilson&amp;#39;s Warbler (Cardellina pusilla) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
WIWR&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Winter Wren (Troglodytes hiemalis)&lt;br&gt;
WTSP&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;White-throated Sparrow (Zonotrichia albicollis)&lt;br&gt;
WWCR&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;White-winged Crossbill (Loxia leucoptera) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
YBFL&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Yellow-bellied Flycatcher (Empidonax flaviventris)&lt;br&gt;
YRWA&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Yellow-rumped Warbler (Setophaga coronata) &amp;Dagger;&lt;br&gt;
YWAR&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;Yellow Warbler (Setophaga petechia) &amp;Dagger;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&amp;Dagger; symbols denote the 38 species currently breeding in the Alaskan boreal region.&lt;br&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;</subfield>
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