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MODELAGEM DAS CHUVAS MENSAIS DE REGIÕES HOMOGÊNEAS DO ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL

CARDOSO, Daniel Souza; BAPTISTA DA SILVA, João; DINIZ, Gilberto Barbosa


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    <dct:title>MODELAGEM DAS CHUVAS MENSAIS DE REGIÕES HOMOGÊNEAS DO ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL</dct:title>
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    <dcat:keyword>precipitação pluvial, normalidade, homogeneidade de variâncias, estacionariedade, análise harmônica, previsão</dcat:keyword>
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    <dct:description>&lt;p&gt;Considerando que o Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (RS), possui uma economia diretamente dependente do setor agropecu&amp;aacute;rio, portanto influenciada pela variabilidade dos elementos meteorol&amp;oacute;gicos, e que no RS, o elemento h&amp;iacute;drico &amp;eacute; considerado como fundamental, realizou-se um estudo da variabilidade dos totais mensais de chuva, ao longo de 60 anos (1948/2007), coletados de 31 esta&amp;ccedil;&amp;otilde;es meteorol&amp;oacute;gicas (EMs), bem distribu&amp;iacute;das geograficamente. Com o objetivo de obter um modelo, que possa representar o comportamento da precipita&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o pluvial m&amp;eacute;dia de cada uma das seis regi&amp;otilde;es homog&amp;ecirc;neas, j&amp;aacute; definidas por Marques [11], realizou-se uma an&amp;aacute;lise harm&amp;ocirc;nica dos dados previamente ajustados &amp;agrave; meses de 30 dias e ap&amp;oacute;s verificadas as propriedades de normalidade, homogeneidade de vari&amp;acirc;ncias e estacionariedade. Os resultados indicaram modelos que representam o comportamento da precipita&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o pluvial m&amp;eacute;dia para as seis regi&amp;otilde;es homog&amp;ecirc;neas do RS, constitu&amp;iacute;dos por 3 ou 4 ondas senoidais, apresentando uma representatividade de 81 a 95% da variabilidade dos dados. Destacaram-se nos modelos os harm&amp;ocirc;nicos: semestral em 50% dos modelos, quadrimestral e anual em cerca de 33% e 17% destes, respectivamente. Os modelos foram testados para previs&amp;atilde;o de valores futuros, mostrando-se adequados ao n&amp;iacute;vel de probabilidade de 5%.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;</dct:description>
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