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Published September 12, 2018 | Version v1
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The human influence on Hurricane Florence

  • 1. Stony Brook University
  • 2. 0000-0003-3741-7080
  • 3. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • 4. National Center for Atmospheric Research

Description

For Hurricane Florence, we present the first advance forecasted attribution statements about the human influence on a tropical cyclone. We find that rainfall will be significantly increased by over 50% in the heaviest precipitating parts of the storm. This increase is substantially larger than expected from thermodynamic considerations alone. We further find that the storm will remain at a high category on the Saffir-Simpson scale for a longer duration and that the storm is approximately 80 km in diameter larger at landfall because of the human interference in the climate system.

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