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Concerning the spread of PPR within a country, there are several ways to model the susceptible population. Data from Tunisia provide information on infected sub-populations, suggesting that a meta-population approach where susceptibles are modelled as a network of interconnected nodes would be appropriate. Although not implemented in this study, this framework would offer the scope to capture heterogeneity across nodes, representing the species composition of individual farms. The strength of connections in this network would then be influenced by the perceived strength of the infectious challenge between nodes. A natural initial approach to this would be to represent the strength of interactions as being monotonically related to Euclidean distance.
\n\nAnticipating the problems regarding a lack of knowledge on the susceptible population, it is also beneficial to consider frameworks where the susceptible population is represented via a continuous spatial intensity, which then moderates the occurrence of new infections. In particular, it was noted that a framework in which spatial contact distribution models (described later) for the initiation of new infections are used to formulate a marked point process model in which marks are drawn from a distribution - representing the diversity of units forming the susceptible population - may be appropriate, and may offer a way of accommodating the lack of information on the susceptible population.
\n\nIt was identified as being important that parameter uncertainty could be treated properly for any models that are fitted to data on PPR, so that these uncertainties could be propagated through to predictions. With this in mind, particular consideration was given to finding models that could be fitted using either likelihood-based methods (to extract maximum information from data) or a fully Bayesian approach, for uncertainty propagation. As previously mentioned, it was considered important that any approach to model fitting could cope with unobserved processes, or with the increased model complexity that arises from, for example, including parameters for the probability of non-reporting of infections. For methods that use data on final size, the inference of epidemic parameters is potentially relevant.
", "publication_date": "2016-12-09", "publisher": "Zenodo", "related_identifiers": [ { "identifier": "10.5281/zenodo.168021", "relation_type": { "id": "isnewversionof", "title": { "de": "Ist eine neue Version von", "en": "Is new version of" } }, "scheme": "doi" } ], "resource_type": { "id": "software", "title": { "de": "Software", "en": "Software" } }, "rights": [ { "description": { "en": "The Creative Commons Attribution license allows re-distribution and re-use of a licensed work on the condition that the creator is appropriately credited." }, "icon": "cc-by-icon", "id": "cc-by-4.0", "props": { "scheme": "spdx", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode" }, "title": { "en": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International" } } ], "subjects": [ { "subject": "Epidemiology" }, { "subject": "Peste des Petit Ruminants" }, { "subject": "Modelling" }, { "subject": "Vector-borne disease" }, { "subject": "Bayesian approach" }, { "subject": "individual" }, { "subject": "network models" } ], "title": "Spread model for PPR" }, "parent": { "access": { "owned_by": { "user": 20172 } }, "communities": { "default": "e835d5a6-736e-4331-9727-fc97f7b4878b", "entries": [ { "access": { "member_policy": "open", "members_visibility": "public", "record_policy": "open", "review_policy": "open", "visibility": "public" }, "children": { "allow": false }, "created": "2016-11-10T11:04:06.919144+00:00", "custom_fields": {}, "deletion_status": { "is_deleted": false, "status": "P" }, "id": "e835d5a6-736e-4331-9727-fc97f7b4878b", "links": {}, "metadata": { "curation_policy": "Items subject to copyright restrictions should only be shared if these rights are not infringed by publishing on an open platform. All other evidence and supporting materials of relevant for food and feed safety will be accepted if the metadata provided is completed according to the guideline (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.889741).
\r\n", "page": "The Knowledge Junction is a curated, open repository for the exchange of evidence and supporting materials used in food and feed safety risk assessments.
\r\n\r\nOur aim is to improve transparency, reproducibility and evidence reuse.
\r\n\r\nAnyone can use the platform and your submissions are welcome too, including:
\r\n\r\nEach submission receives a digital object identifier (DOI), requires metadata acknowledging authors and contributors and has a license specifying the conditions of use.
\r\nIn this way the reuse of any object deposited can be tracked by the provider.
The content of this repository can be used by EFSA’s panels and working groups and any other interested parties when preparing for new risk assessments.
\r\n\r\nThe Knowledge Junction is a curated, open repository for the exchange of evidence and supporting materials used in food and feed safety risk assessments.
\r\n\r\nOur aim is to improve transparency, reproducibility and evidence reuse.
\r\n\r\nAnyone can use the platform and your submissions are welcome too, including:
\r\n\r\nEach submission receives a digital object identifier (DOI), requires metadata acknowledging authors and contributors and has a license specifying the conditions of use.
\r\nIn this way the reuse of any object deposited can be tracked by the provider.
The content of this repository can be used by EFSA’s panels and working groups and any other interested parties when preparing for new risk assessments.
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n\r\n
Disclaimer: The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) curates the Knowledge Junction to facilitate the exchange of evidence and supporting materials relevant for food and feed safety risk assessments. In addition to the information provided on its website: http://www.efsa.europa.eu.The linking policy, copyright policy and tweeter policy of EFSA’s website apply mutatis mutandis and are available at: http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/legalnotice. The Notice on personal data protection and confidentiality also apply equally to the present community.
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\r\n\r\nAll persons reproducing, redistributing, exploiting or making commercial use of digital objects published in the community are expected to adhere to the terms and conditions described by the license assigned to each published object. EFSA is not responsible for any misuse of the documents and files.
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