Journal article Open Access

Predicted distribution of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesi on the Scotian Shelf and its persistence in the face of climatic variability

Beazley, Lindsay; Wang, Zeliang; Kenchington, Ellen; Yashayaev, Igor; Rapp, Hans Tore; Xavier, Joana R; Murillo, Francisco Xavier; Fenton, Derek; Fuller, Susanna


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    <subfield code="a">COPYRIGHT. © 2018 Beazley et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. DATA AVAILABILITY. All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files. FUNDING. This research was funded through Fisheries and Oceans Canada's (DFO) Strategic Program for Ecosystem-Based Research and Advice (SPERA) project "Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Two Sponge Conservation Areas in the Maritimes Region: Identifying Patterns of Dispersal, Connectivity, and Recovery Potential of the Russian Hat Sponge Vazella pourtalesi" led by L.I.B. and the H2020 EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Project SponGES (Deep-sea Sponge Grounds Ecosystems of the North Atlantic: an integrated approach towards their preservation and sustainable exploitation) (Grant Agreement no. 679849). The funders supported the collection of data used in this manuscript. Oceans North provided support in the form of salaries for S.D. Fuller, but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of all authors are articulated in the 'author contributions' section.</subfield>
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    <subfield code="a">&lt;p&gt;Emerald Basin on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada, is home to a globally unique aggregation of the glass sponge &lt;em&gt;Vazella pourtalesi&lt;/em&gt;, first documented in the region in 1889. In 2009, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) implemented two Sponge Conservation Areas to protect these sponge grounds from bottom fishing activities. Together, the two conservation areas encompass 259 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;. In order to ascertain the degree to which the sponge grounds remain unprotected, we modelled the presence probability and predicted range distribution of &lt;em&gt;V. pourtalesi&lt;/em&gt; on the Scotian Shelf using random forest modelling on presence-absence records. With a high degree of accuracy the random forest model predicted the highest probability of occurrence of &lt;em&gt;V. pourtalesi&lt;/em&gt; in the inner basins on the central Scotian Shelf, with lower probabilities at the shelf break and in the Fundian and Northeast Channels. Bottom temperature was the most important determinant of its distribution in the model. Although the two DFO Sponge Conservation Areas protect some of the more significant concentrations of &lt;em&gt;V. pourtalesi&lt;/em&gt;, much of its predicted distribution remains unprotected (over 99%). Examination of the hydrographic conditions in Emerald Basin revealed that the &lt;em&gt;V. pourtalesi&lt;/em&gt; sponge grounds are associated with a warmer and more saline water mass compared to the surrounding shelf. Reconstruction of historical bottom temperature and salinity in Emerald Basin revealed strong multi-decadal variability, with average bottom temperatures varying by 8 ̊C. We show that this species has persisted in the face of this climatic variability, possibly indicating how it will respond to future climate change.&lt;/p&gt;

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