Journal article Open Access

The Potential Scenarios of the Impacts of Climate Change on Egyptian Resources and Agricultural Plant Production

Soliman, Sarhan, A.

The emissions of greenhouse gases in Egypt is only about 0.58% of the total emissions of the world in the year 2015, but Egypt is one of the most affected by the impacts of climate change. By Assessment and analysis of the expected economic impacts of climate change by the 2030, the cultivated area will be reduced by about 0.949 million Acres or 8.22% of the cultivated area. This result contrasts with the case of no sinking of the delta land, the reduced crop area about 1.406 million acres, approximately by 6.25% of crop area. In addition, there is surplus in the Egyptian balance water by about 2.48 billion m3. In this case, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 6.19 billion dollars, equal about 6.19% compared by presumably no sinking of the Delta land. In the case of sinking by 15% of Delta lands, with the change of the productivity and water consumption of most crops, the result will be a reduction in the cultivated area to about 0.94 million acres. Thus, there will be a decrease in the crop area by about 1.39 million acres, with deficit in the Egyptian balance water by about 4.74 billion m3 compared to the case of no sinking part of the delta land, the cultivated area will decrease by about 8.17%. The crop area will also decrease 6.18%, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 12.51%. while Compared to sinking part of the Delta land to about 15% of the total Delta area without the other impacts climate change, the cultivated area will increase by about 0.06%, and the crop area will increase by about 0.08%. The value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 5.57%.

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