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Contribution of temperature to Chilean droughts using ensemble climate projections

Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Naumann, Gustavo; Garreaud, René


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  <identifier identifierType="DOI">10.5281/zenodo.1161271</identifier>
  <creators>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio</creatorName>
      <givenName>Mauricio</givenName>
      <familyName>Zambrano-Bigiarini</familyName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-9536-643X</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Alfieri, Lorenzo</creatorName>
      <givenName>Lorenzo</givenName>
      <familyName>Alfieri</familyName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-3616-386X</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Naumann, Gustavo</creatorName>
      <givenName>Gustavo</givenName>
      <familyName>Naumann</familyName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-8767-5099</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Garreaud, René</creatorName>
      <givenName>René</givenName>
      <familyName>Garreaud</familyName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-7875-2443</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile</affiliation>
    </creator>
  </creators>
  <titles>
    <title>Contribution of temperature to Chilean droughts using ensemble climate projections</title>
  </titles>
  <publisher>Zenodo</publisher>
  <publicationYear>2017</publicationYear>
  <subjects>
    <subject>Droughts</subject>
    <subject>Chile</subject>
    <subject>Climate change</subject>
    <subject>SPI</subject>
    <subject>SPEI</subject>
    <subject>EC-EARTH3</subject>
    <subject>RCP 8.5</subject>
  </subjects>
  <dates>
    <date dateType="Issued">2017-12-11</date>
  </dates>
  <language>en</language>
  <resourceType resourceTypeGeneral="Text">Presentation</resourceType>
  <alternateIdentifiers>
    <alternateIdentifier alternateIdentifierType="url">https://zenodo.org/record/1161271</alternateIdentifier>
  </alternateIdentifiers>
  <relatedIdentifiers>
    <relatedIdentifier relatedIdentifierType="DOI" relationType="IsVersionOf">10.5281/zenodo.1161270</relatedIdentifier>
  </relatedIdentifiers>
  <rightsList>
    <rights rightsURI="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International</rights>
    <rights rightsURI="info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess">Open Access</rights>
  </rightsList>
  <descriptions>
    <description descriptionType="Abstract">&lt;p&gt;Precipitation deficit is traditionally considered as the main driver of drought events, however the evolution of&amp;nbsp;drought conditions is also influenced by other variables such as temperature, wind speed and&amp;nbsp;evapotranspiration. In view of global warming, the effect of rising temperatures may lead to increased socio-economic drought impacts, particularly in vulnerable developing countries. In this work, we used two drought&amp;nbsp;indices to analyze the impacts of precipitation and temperature on the frequency, severity and duration of&lt;br&gt;
Chilean droughts (25&amp;deg;S-56&amp;deg;S) during the XXI century, using multi-model climate projections consistent with&amp;nbsp;the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
An ensemble of seven global CMIP5 simulations were used to drive the Earth System Model EC-EARTH3-HR&amp;nbsp;v3.1 over the 1976-2100 period, in order to increase the spatial resolution from the original grid to 0.35&amp;deg;. The&amp;nbsp;Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe the impact of precipitation on drought conditions,&amp;nbsp;while the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to assess the effect of&amp;nbsp;temperature -throughout changes in potential evapotranspiration- on drought characteristics at different time&amp;nbsp;scales. Drought indices along with duration, severity and frequency of drought events were computed for a&amp;nbsp;30-year baseline period (1976-2005) and then compared to three 30-year periods representing short, medium&amp;nbsp;and long-term scenarios (2011&amp;ndash;2040, 2041-2070 and 2071&amp;ndash;2100). Indices obtained from climate simulations&amp;nbsp;during the baseline period were compared against the corresponding values derived from ground&amp;nbsp;observations.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Results obtained with SPI-12 reveal a progressive decrease in precipitation in Chile, which is consistent&amp;nbsp;through all climate models, though each of them shows a different spatial pattern. Simulations based on&amp;nbsp;SPEI-12 show that the expected increase in evaporative demand (driven by the temperature increase) for the&amp;nbsp;region is likely to exacerbate the severity and duration of drought events. Findings of this work are an&amp;nbsp;important support for timely preparation of drought adaptation and mitigation plans to improve water&lt;br&gt;
management strategies and resilience during the XXI century.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
    <description descriptionType="Other">Fondecyt 111 50 861</description>
  </descriptions>
</resource>
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