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Contribution of temperature to Chilean droughts using ensemble climate projections

Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Naumann, Gustavo; Garreaud, René


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{
  "publisher": "Zenodo", 
  "DOI": "10.5281/zenodo.1161271", 
  "language": "eng", 
  "title": "Contribution of temperature to Chilean droughts using ensemble climate projections", 
  "issued": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2017, 
        12, 
        11
      ]
    ]
  }, 
  "abstract": "<p>Precipitation deficit is traditionally considered as the main driver of drought events, however the evolution of&nbsp;drought conditions is also influenced by other variables such as temperature, wind speed and&nbsp;evapotranspiration. In view of global warming, the effect of rising temperatures may lead to increased socio-economic drought impacts, particularly in vulnerable developing countries. In this work, we used two drought&nbsp;indices to analyze the impacts of precipitation and temperature on the frequency, severity and duration of<br>\nChilean droughts (25&deg;S-56&deg;S) during the XXI century, using multi-model climate projections consistent with&nbsp;the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario.</p>\n\n<p><br>\nAn ensemble of seven global CMIP5 simulations were used to drive the Earth System Model EC-EARTH3-HR&nbsp;v3.1 over the 1976-2100 period, in order to increase the spatial resolution from the original grid to 0.35&deg;. The&nbsp;Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe the impact of precipitation on drought conditions,&nbsp;while the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to assess the effect of&nbsp;temperature -throughout changes in potential evapotranspiration- on drought characteristics at different time&nbsp;scales. Drought indices along with duration, severity and frequency of drought events were computed for a&nbsp;30-year baseline period (1976-2005) and then compared to three 30-year periods representing short, medium&nbsp;and long-term scenarios (2011&ndash;2040, 2041-2070 and 2071&ndash;2100). Indices obtained from climate simulations&nbsp;during the baseline period were compared against the corresponding values derived from ground&nbsp;observations.</p>\n\n<p><br>\nResults obtained with SPI-12 reveal a progressive decrease in precipitation in Chile, which is consistent&nbsp;through all climate models, though each of them shows a different spatial pattern. Simulations based on&nbsp;SPEI-12 show that the expected increase in evaporative demand (driven by the temperature increase) for the&nbsp;region is likely to exacerbate the severity and duration of drought events. Findings of this work are an&nbsp;important support for timely preparation of drought adaptation and mitigation plans to improve water<br>\nmanagement strategies and resilience during the XXI century.</p>", 
  "author": [
    {
      "family": "Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Alfieri, Lorenzo"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Naumann, Gustavo"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Garreaud, Ren\u00e9"
    }
  ], 
  "note": "Fondecyt 111 50 861", 
  "type": "speech", 
  "id": "1161271"
}
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